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not so cozy. if they were, they wouldnt do this… as it is its getting very uncozy on the homeland!
from syrianperspective comment
p.s. an odd article. In Southern Russia 6 bodies have been found with gunshots wounds, in 4 cars, 3 of which had bombs. Perhaps this is a Russian black ops hit team taking out would be bombers?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/10560508/Security-alert-in-southern-Russia-as-bodies-found-in-bomb-rigged-cars.html
@Anonymous: Perhaps this is a Russian black ops hit team taking out would be bombers?
Could be, of course, but I wonder why they could not do so openly and legally. But yes, 6 bodies, 4 cars, 3 with bombs, and all nice and dead – that sure is no road accident :-)
Going by elimination, the special forces of the FSB and MVD have the full right to act legally. Which leaves one candidate: Spetsnaz GRU. Could be them I suppose. I will keep an eye on this curious story.
Thanks and cheers!
The Saker
Syria rebel infighting
What I’m thinking is that as part of an Assad/Russia deal with the “non-Islamic rebels” (label is arbitrary and largely inaccurate) is this current battle between generally (this is a VERY fluid and fuzzy dividing line) the foreign fighters versus the local fighters. This deal (if it exists) is very nebulous, involves a lot of ifs and its desired outcome is a big Goat Rodeo. Just the sort of stuff they live on in this area (both geographic and on the foreign policy level).
As part of coming in from the cold, the local based fighters are told to clean their house (get rid of the foreign nut job extremists) and then a deal can be done. Amnesties, changes to the constitution (damn if I know what their constitution states or even if they have one), perhaps some kind of political structure akin to Lebanon, power sharing (probably limited and local considering the Kurds would have to be part of this) and to be capped off with elections for various and all positions would be on the table. This would be supervised by say Russia, China and the West in the form of say Germany and/or even the US.
Obama gets a capstone for his presidency (already in tatters, so he needs something). Russia gets prestige and some roll back of extremism on it’s southern flank. China gets business. Europe gets business and pipelines. Assad get’s some peace, some rehabilitation with whatever PR he wants or needs, depending on how he plays it. Saudi gets the stick up its ass.
What to watch over the next couple of months will be Turkey, Jordan, Iraq and Saudi. Turkey will have to come visibly into line on this since I foresee some kind of federated Syria with a large amount of autonomy for the Kurds (very thorny problem). Turkey also has to deal with the foreign fighters on their soil, those running from Syria and the high horse they have climbed onto when they changed their foreign policy 2 to 3 years back. Jordan has kept a relatively low profile but has similar problems. Iraq will have to deal with the extremists (call them whatever you wish, they’re certifiable) coming back and raising Hell. Some of this is already manifesting itself (visibly to the western media at least) in Fallujah with the Tribes splitting overtly with AQI. Saudi (and Israel) will scream, pout and make threats. It remains to be seen how far they will push it.
Syria rebel infighting
What I’m thinking is that as part of an Assad/Russia deal with the “non-Islamic rebels” (label is arbitrary and largely inaccurate) is this current battle between generally (this is a VERY fluid and fuzzy dividing line) the foreign fighters versus the local fighters. This deal (if it exists) is very nebulous, involves a lot of ifs and its desired outcome is a big Goat Rodeo. Just the sort of stuff they live on in this area (both geographic and on the foreign policy level).
As part of coming in from the cold, the local based fighters are told to clean their house (get rid of the foreign nut job extremists) and then a deal can be done. Amnesties, changes to the constitution (damn if I know what their constitution states or even if they have one), perhaps some kind of political structure akin to Lebanon, power sharing (probably limited and local considering the Kurds would have to be part of this) and to be capped off with elections for various and all positions would be on the table. This would be supervised by say Russia, China and the West in the form of say Germany and/or even the US.
Obama gets a capstone for his presidency (already in tatters, so he needs something). Russia gets prestige and some roll back of extremism on it’s southern flank. China gets business. Europe gets business and pipelines. Assad get’s some peace, some rehabilitation with whatever PR he wants or needs, depending on how he plays it. Saudi gets the stick up its ass.
What to watch over the next couple of months will be Turkey, Jordan, Iraq and Saudi. Turkey will have to come visibly into line on this since I foresee some kind of federated Syria with a large amount of autonomy for the Kurds (very thorny problem). Turkey also has to deal with the foreign fighters on their soil, those running from Syria and the high horse they have climbed onto when they changed their foreign policy 2 to 3 years back. Jordan has kept a relatively low profile but has similar problems. Iraq will have to deal with the extremists (call them whatever you wish, they’re certifiable) coming back and raising Hell. Some of this is already manifesting itself (visibly to the western media at least) in Fallujah with the Tribes splitting overtly with AQI. Saudi (and Israel) will scream, pout and make threats. It remains to be seen how far they will push it.
That great bountiful land protected
by two seas between moderate latitudes
and compliant neighbours of slim account
they bought for a song
America!