With everybody focused on the US election drama, there are important developments in the war over the NK. I will summarize them here:
- While both the original Russian and then subsequent US ceasefires failed minutes after they were proclaimed, there are signs that both the Armenians and the Azeris are getting exhausted and want to talk.
- So far, the Azeris were mostly prevailing, but at great costs. Also, their drones were used with great effectiveness, but now most of them have eventually been shot down. Also, the winter is coming fast, making any kind of warfare close to impossible, especially in the mountains.
- It appears that today the Azeris shot down a Russian Mi-24 by mistake, but right over the border in Armenian airspace. Putin will not retaliate since he knows that this is a mistake and since he does not let such minor, if tragic, incidents affect him. But Aliev also knows that now things are getting really dangerous so he already apologized, offered compensation, promised a criminal investigation which will punish all those who are responsible. Aliev “gets” Russia and he also “gets” Putin. Smart man!
- The Armenians probably have realized two things: a) the US cannot help them b) their public image in Russia is pretty bad. On this page: https://vz.ru/vote/result/
1820/, Vzgliad, a popular and moderately patriotic website asked this question in a survey: “Which of the parties to the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh is morally right in your eyes?“. The result? Armenia 33.06 and Azerbaijan 48.12. The arrogant and openly hostile attitude of the Armenians since 2018 has hurt them tremendously and they might be coming back to their senses. If Pashinian is removed, he did lose this war, after all, that would help a lot. - There are now signs that Russia and Turkey will decide the outcome of this war. Considering how the two countries cooperated in Syria, this will be both very difficult to achieve, but all that matters is the end result.
- There are also rumors that Russia will send peacekeepers into Nagorno-Karabakh. If confirmed, they will be heavily armed peacekeepers with full support from the Russian armed forces in Armenia and even Russia.
- Pashinian has already made public a declaration in which he says that he has agreed to the terms offered by Russia and Azerbaijan and that the war is “over”
We will see if this ceasefire will hold any more than the previous ones did, but this is a good sign.
The Azeris know that if they continue the war, it will get harder and harder for them.
The Armenians, who are the real losers in this war, now want to stop it ASAP. They know that they have no chance of “victory” and that the best thing they can do now is to agree to new terms.
As for Russia, it was quite funny for me to see the so-called “Russia specialists” declaring how Russia had “lost control of the near abroad” when, in reality, the only party which actually benefited from this war was Russia! Why? Because this war has proven (or, if this ceasefire does not hold, will prove) that Russia is the sole kingmaker of the Caucasus. Not Turkey, most definitely a dying USA, not Iran (though it is very powerful, I would give Iran the #2 rank) – but Russia and only Russia. Furthermore, this war served an important purpose: to show the Armenians that their future depends on their relationship with Russia. The cost of this “lesson” was huge, but this is hardly Russia’s fault. As for Erdogan, his lesson is that while he can dream about a new, big, Ottoman Empire, that ain’t gonna happen as long as Russia exists (that is something NO Russian leader can allow to happen).
So what’s next (assuming this ceasefire holds)?
Nagorno-Karabakh will return under Azeri rule, at least formally, de jure. It will have an special status, obviously, and to reassure the population, Russian peacekeepers will be deployed in and around NK. De facto, NK will remain a semi-independent province. Confidence building measures will slowly be implemented, beginning with an exchange of dead bodies and prisoners. Then the heavy weapons will be moved back, and some weapons systems will be closely monitored (including Azeri drones). The road linking NK to Armenia (which now is under Azeri fire control) will get some kind of special “civilians only” status, insuring that both sides refrain from using it for any bellicose purposes. This is pretty standard stuff and it should work here too.
Besides, that is the only possible solution to this war anyway.
God willing, peace will return to the suffering people of Armenia and Azerbaijan.
And, God willing, the Armenians will learn their lesson and never forget it again: Russia is their only real friend.
The Saker
A very clear and succinct analysis.
Here’s hoping the outcome is swift and follows this analysis.
I gotta say Aliev is a very good representative of the best of Soviet education (МГУ). His Russian is very good and he hit every Armenian weak point, while playing on the strategic diplomatic blunders Armenians made. I was quite surprised how well he made use of the Pashinyan- Soros theme. Most of his interviews on Russian TV were very well prepared and used even Russian talking points. If (elite) Armenians don’t learn and stay russophobic they can expect another 1915, which is Turkey’s ultimate goal for them…
“If (elite) Armenians don’t learn and stay russophobic they can expect another 1915, which is Turkey’s ultimate goal for them…”
Nonsense. We really need to stop this racist propaganda against Turks in the Orthodox world. Erdoğan is certainly not a saint, but he has no interest in exterminating Armenians or taking over Armenia proper. This war is about regaining Azeri territory occupied by Armenia (officially or unofficially). Remember, it was the Armenians who ethnically cleansed up to 1 million Azeris from Azeri territory, not just NK.
I concur with the Saker, that I hope the Armenians can find a responsible leader and jetison the undue US influence they suffer from. Russia should be and would be their most obvious friend, if the Armenians would stop abusing it.
The solution suggested by Saker also seems the logical one at this point.
NK is ancient Armenian territory. And, as my grandma said “with Turks you can never relax”.
Pashinyan is hardly “Armenian leader”, he is more like Zelensky, a very public “one time condom”, serving to insulate real rulers from responsibilites and consequences.
In this case, Armenian president, personal firend of UK royal family, who is “ruling but not governing” just like her.
Larchmonter445
I concur. The Armenians forgot what Henry Kissinger said:”Being a friend of the US is dangerous, being it’s enemy is lethal”. That foolish pro-US coup d’etat which they pulled has two years later brought them this. No doubt they are smarter now.
Things are moving fast:
https://www.rt.com/russia/506242-russian-peacekeepers-deploying-karabakh/
Russian peace keepers are moving into Nagorno-Karabakh after a deal has been struck. Putin and Lavrov sure moved fast. Somebody wanted a wider conflict in the Caucuses, and failed. NATO will be disappointed.
I see below there is a lot of dis-information about Turkish peacekeepers.
Here are the updates:
https://sputniknews.com/world/202011101081110630-live-updates-yerevan-shook-by-protests-after-pashinyan-signs-statement-on-ending-karabakh-war/
FM stated only Russian peacekeepers will be deployed and
Kremlin States Presence of Turkish Peacekeepers in Karabakh Was Not Coordinated With Anyone
“I will comment on it like this: there is not a [single] word about it in the text of the joint statement, the three sides never negotiated it, and the presence of Turkish troops in Karabakh was not coordinated”, Peskov noted.
Again Turkey/Erdogan trying to muscle in – but this time – The Russians are present and have the legal right to be the only peacekeepers.
https://sputniknews.com/asia/202011101081115186-ceasefire-in-nagorno-karabakh-key-points-of-deal-to-stop-hostilities-between-armenia-and-azerbaijan/
https://sputniknews.com/world/202011101081110630-live-updates-yerevan-shook-by-protests-after-pashinyan-signs-statement-on-ending-karabakh-war/
A great Russian success. Pachinynian has no more credibility in his own country. The shooting of the Russian helicopter submit Azeri. Erdogan out. On longer term every violent move against Russian peace keeper will trigger response like in Syria but even quicker. It take 6 week to Russia to develop is counter-offensive. This success is very important for what will follow in Ukraine, Transnistria, Belarus, Georgia, and Syria.
Powerfull force are working very hard to avoid ww3. Little hope for the deplorable of the whole planet. Thank you Russia
The spectre of Greatest Katerine gazing down on the Turkish envoy still brings a smile.
For 10 years now Russia has a mandate under international law to control the heights between the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea, about 1000 km north of the Persian Gulf. At what price. 2 dead, one wounded, one helicopter and it can deploy its soldiers without fighting with the right to open fire on those who will contest its presence. A brilliant success for Russian diplomacy supported by the force of the army.
PS: I do not forget the dead and wounded pilots. For their families the price may not be higher, but in view of the bloodbath that is the war between Azeri and Armenian, I think it is not insulting to describe the russian losses as very low.
Why is it that the Russian soldiers, pilots and diplomats have to pay such a heavy price for the byznyes as usual stance? It is never the Turks or the Vukrops or other enemies of Russia who have to fear for their lives because the Kremlin will do everything in its power to appease them – even if they are as nasty as the Croats.
https://sputniknews.com/world/202011091081108130-moscow-positively-assesses-fact-that-baku-admitted-its-responsibility-in-mi-24-helicopter-incident/
Compare and contrast with the brave Iranians who are not afraid to spit in the eye of the enemy even though threatened with annihilation.
Anubis64
… just stating facts, because you fail to understand that Russia, given its immense geographic size, population and military endowment is in a *vastly different geopolitical position than Iran – and hence is playing the *long game, that of Eurasian economic development and integration (alongside its symbiotic partner China)
Consequently Iran’s geo-policy goals cannot be anywhere hear as ambitious
Regards
Thank you Tyson,
Perhaps we are looking at two different universes. In mine, Azerbaijan has just pivoted towards Turkey and NATO and the Christian Armenia which hosts Russian bases has lost a part of its territory. Byelorussia is still riven with protests. What long game? Turkey will turn against Russia in a second – it already has and President Putin is constantly trying to appease them and mitigate their appetite.
By the way, I appreciate a genuine debate – and will be happy to be proved wrong. I’m not though.
Armenia has not lost any territory as it never recognised Artsakh as part of Armenia.
Yes, well, Artsakh has.
In response to the murder of General Soleimani, didn’t Iran give dozens of American soldiers headaches when those guided missiles could have killed the soldiers instead…?
Anubis: The banker gangsters want more escalations; no one agrees to their financial blackmail willingly. However, they also need to convince most of their subjects that the escalations are their targets’ fault. That’s what the Project for a New American Century “new Pearl Harbor” strategy is all about, and yes, the original attack on Pearl Harbor was due to years of sanctions and aggressive military maneuvers against Japan, much like Iran, Russia, etc. are receiving now.
Russians have caused at least some tinnitus or mild sunburn – but not even that!
At some point it becomes irrelevant who wants what. Why is it Russia’s responsibility to take these slaps and insults? Aren’t you tired of one and the same story – Russia loves peace etc.
Forgive me if I disagree re Pearl Harbor. For all my fondness of the Japanese culture, they behaved like animals in China and elsewhere and got what they deserved – especially from Marshal Vassilevsky.
As to Pearl Harbor, both those things can be true. The Japanese were behaving horribly pre WW II, but that’s not why the US was trying to strangle their economy. The US was sanctioning Japan because a bunch of little brown people had the gall to think they could be colonial imperialists like the US or Europeans, in pieces of turf the US wanted yet. They were like “Who invited THEM into the club? How dare they slaughter those Chinese and Filipinos WE should be slaughtering?!”
Not so sure about that – most of what I’ve read about had to do with Japan’s aggressive moves in China and elsewhere. The Japanese had a unique chance to liberate the Far East and squandered it in crude nationalism, cruelty and a total lack of sensitivity. Don’t forget that they were probing the USSR’s weak spots as early as 1938 – Russia should have delivered the coup de grace for 1904 – one can only fantasise.
It is similar to what was experienced by the Ukrainians and Byelorussians. Some greeted the Germans as liberators only to realise that they were dealing with a cold satanic force that cares nothing about the other. If I were in a position of power then, I would have done my best to “neutralise” them as early as possible. As you say, this doesn’t excuse the Western colonialism (remember that Roosevelt was opposed to it).
“…this doesn’t excuse the Western colonialism (remember that Roosevelt was opposed to it)”.
Now that really is side-splitting.
Of course FDR was opposed to colonialism by the British and Europeans. He wanted everything for the good ol’ USA.
“For all my fondness of the Japanese culture, they behaved like animals in China and elsewhere…”
While doing their best to imitate faithfully the customary behaviour of US and European imperialists.
Up till 1850 Japan had stuck tigidly to a policy of peaceful isolation. Then the black ships steamed into Toky Bay and threatened to destroy the Imperial Palace if Japan did not open up and play the game.
So the Japanese, after about 20 seconds’ thought, decided “if you can’t beat ’em, join ’em”. It took an astonishingly short 60 years or so to turn Japan into a modern industrial state with modern armed forces. In 1850 Japan had no warships that were remotely modern; yet in 1904-5 they destroyed Russia’s battle fleet, first with an attack on their harbour and then in a pitched battle in the open sea.
By 1930 the Japanese felt they were ready to take their place alongside the USA, Britain, France and the other great colonial powers. But as soon as they embarked on Step 1 – “conquer all the backward peoples in your neighbourhood” – the whites became hostile and began to plan Japan’s downfall.
By 1940 FDR had simultaneously begun to put lethal pressure on Japan’s economy with the deliberate purpose of forcing them attack or submit. No one with any understanding of the Japanese would imagine for a moment that they would submit – even if the alternetive was likely annihilation.
In 1940 FDR had also started planning for a US Navy with over 100 aircraft carriers and enormous numbers of other ships and aircraft. As a lifelong enthusiast of naval warfare (who boasted in 1911 that he owned over 10,000 books on the subject) he foresaw more or less exactly how the war would unfold.
So what does this prove? Ask the British, American and Russian PoWs how they fared under the Japanese (or perhaps Chinese and Korean women). Japan had an opportunity to be accepted as a liberator – they squandered it once and for all. Roosevelt did not want US colonies (read Henry Wallace’s speeches on his visit to South America).
The fact that the Japanese wanted to compete with Britain and Holland doesn’t mean that they had the right to rape China and the rest of South-East Asia.
You are late with the news and missing the fresh ones. Soon you will realise that Erdogan is the sole winner anyway – he will get a corridor through NKR to Azerbaidjan. The Russian peacekeepers will have no heavy weaponry there.
OK, the only win for Cremlin is that Pashinian is out (the people of Armenia finally woke up, too late). What a pleasure for CIA, his job is done anyway. I am pretty sure they have enough of puppets to activate over there, do the Russians have?
Needless to ask, they have no strategy in general, no assets in Belarus or Ukraine. Lukashenko and Zelenskyi stay in power….
Soviet Union Ended 30 years ago
Some people seem to live in the past
Ukraine has made his choices and so has Belarus.
Those choices have led to disaster for Ukraine and Belarus unless it corrects its path will need up the same.
Russia was on its knees and had to get up and sort itself out – no one helped!!!
Ex soviet countries future lies in having good friendship with Russia – that they don’t is there choice.
Armenia really forgot what neighbourhood they are in!!! The leader was educated in England and obviously lost touch with that fact.
Armenia need to have home grown leaders Like they had for 30 years before Pashyan who could have negotiated a better settlement long before the war but didn’t
Azerbaijan need to get rid of Turkey influence now the job is done
Part of this agreements are long term goals – roads and train links – and Azerbaijan can only build confidence with Nagorno Karabakh without Turkey
“The leader was educated in England and obviously lost touch with that fact”.
That explains a lot.
this nonsense could be summarized as so: you do not understand the Russian mentality.
Russia did not become the biggest and richest and most military powerful country on the planet by being stupid or outwitted by the CIA.
Oh, and where is the USA anyway?
Good point and a genuine counter to pessimistic assessments. Let’s carry on!
Better you take again geography lessons.
It is impossible to ge a corridor to azerbajan through NKR…
between Turkey and Azerbajan there is Armenia…
or where you thinking maybe a secret and deep tunnel…
Better you rethink also your name, “The Student” will be better,
more in line with your comments
Really? Don’t make me laugh. Ever heard of Nachichevan? Go on Google maps and zoom it, read thoroughly what was agreed with Putin and then only give your “precious” lessons.
To mod: and where is my previous comment which made some points on Saker’s reaction which shortly afterwards proved to be correct? It is really an honour for me to be censored here where you are outraged by Trump being censored by the mainstream media…
Your comment was deemed to be addressed to Saker so it has been forwarded to him to read .. he will decide to publish or not … mod
Right mate }}}}
Erdogan has been shown once again to hav little if any regional authority – in this latest little failed policy he has handed authority in Azerbaijan to Russia.
Not only that his internationals stnading has been sstruck hard, his drone plans have been stalled for their reliance on critical components from abroad.
Only in his paralell world of Turkey does Erdoigan retain any strength at all and that’s because no on dare speak against him.
This is a good alternative view – why not elaborate? How has he “handed” anything? His proxies decimated a Christian army using those same drones and compelled them to sue for peace – without a single Turk killed.
Waiting for more.
But the Armenians were improving on shooting down the drones – and successfully shot down many – there was pictorial and video proof, and it was said Azerbaijan was using them much less because it lost so many.
Armenians also did destroy Azerbaijan tanks and equipment and had long lists of Azerbaijani soldiers killed – photos, full identities, etc., and were also killing Syrian terrorist mercenaries which were are used by the Turks.
And just a few days ago Armenian commanders were saying that their infantry losses were not critical.
It seems to me that they could have lasted significantly longer – and maybe turned the war around (Armenians are generally better on the ground) and fought to a stalemate and not have to give over so much territory at least.
There appears to be some internal “criticism” within Armenia that their armed forces should have been much more fully committed by the government and could have at least prolonged the situation and damaging Azer army……but for how long? Turkey I think was still supplying Azer via Georgia…..Arm. could have run out of ammo…..but surely must have had a thought or two how much they need to keep back to preserve Armenia itself…….being sandwiched between two turcic countries.
Typical Russia-slamming
There is no mention of such an agreement involving Turkey.
And will Russia have a bargaining point for Azer to hand over the Turkish sponsored Syrian terrorist to Russia? Or they will return to Turkey…and their participation thankfully acknowledged…Turkey will celebrate its support for a “just” Azer cause..?..will peacekeepers patrol to N-K borders before this episode….or Azer can claim the new borders.ie presently occupied territory…incl.Stepen. and Shushi to not need peacekeeper forces? Will Armenian people just continue to exit N-K anyways considering the animosities?
Uhuh….perhaps all will become known.
To JJ
Here is a bit of information for you. As you people, well at least most of you, got distracted with the big circus show, called USA elections, myself, like Saker have been following other developments around the world and N-K is very much in focus. Apparently the families of those headchoppers that Erdogan has shipped to N-K, are now demanding to know from Erdogan as to what happened to them as they haven’t heard from them for quite a while.
I believe they need to address that question to Kadurov, not Erdogan, as only he that can answer that! I have said it right from the start – these headchoppers from Syria and Libya shipped there by the Turk will have in N-K a very short lifespan. Saker is absolutely right on two points – the ONLY power in Caucasus is Russia and the lessons on betraying it are being learned there in a very hard way..
Hi….yes I had posted about that in a reply to Penny a few days ago when she was either in denial or demanding absolute proof of the presence of the militants. We await results from the Azer investigation….was that Azer troops or imported militants or perhaps even possible peoples who had been supplied directly from within Turkey and just popped over the border to take down the helicopter…..Turkish military intelligence would certainly-? have been monitoring the Russian base and this supply convoy?…….perhaps the commenters who re-posted in media the video of the helo take down can do some investigation as to its source…………
JJ
https://twitter.com/301_AD/status/1325902045245739012
“Azerbaijanis, potentially troops, heard celebrating during the shooting down of the Russian Mi-24 helicopter near Yeraskh, Armenia.”
I am not on twitter anymore so i cant dm the tweeter and my old account have been purged in one of jacks purges of wrongthink accounts, so i cant engage trough that either. (i will admit i used it mostly for /pol ops, trolling libruls and other such dumb things, so i am not surprised)
I have searched twitter, telegram and 4chan, as far as i can tell the vid was Azeri or is represented as Azeri but i can not guarantee i am right.
Appreciate the reply….thanks.
If I may, here is a Google translation of Colonel Cassad’s recent write up on Nagorno Karabakh. By his moderate standards, this is very strong and tells us something about how many Russian patriots are feeling about this debacle.
1. It seems that accepting an apology and compensation for the downed Mi-24 will look like an obvious sign of the weakness of the Russian Federation and another marker of the weakening of its positions in the Transcaucasus, which are already weakened by the actions of “friend Recep” who is undermining the traditional line of Transcaucasian arbitration. In the Caucasus, strength is respected first of all.
2. The destruction of a helicopter outside the combat zone on the territory of a CSTO member, without an appropriate response, will be another characteristic marker indicating the actual inferiority of this organization, which is often mistakenly compared to NATO.
3. The absence of a forceful reaction will obviously have negative consequences for the image of the authorities within the country, since the absence of a forceful reaction will be equated with a manifestation of weakness in the face of the actions of a far from essential state. Pictures of claims to greatness may diverge a little from reality.
4. Subjectively, a commensurate reaction would be a strike on some military facility on the territory of Azerbaijan followed by a statement in the style of “Your apologies are accepted. No money is needed. Next time it will be even more painful.”
“The absence of a forceful reaction”
“Forceful reaction” = the next step in the let’s you and him fight game. Like, for example:
“a commensurate reaction would be a strike on some military facility ” . “Commensurate”, right.
Instead, something much better::
War over? Armenia’s Pashinyan says signed declaration with Russia’s Putin & Azerbaijan’s Aliyev to END Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
https://www.rt.com/russia/506236-pashinyan-aliev-putin-karabakh/
and
WATCH Russian peacekeepers begin deploying to Nagorno-Karabakh under Armenia-Azerbaijan peace deal
https://www.rt.com/russia/506242-russian-peacekeepers-deploying-karabakh/
And wouldn’t Biden and his people rejoice if Russia were to launch a strike on Azerbaijan! What an absolute godsend that would be at this critical juncture.
Oh, how blind I have been! Of course – the whole Azeri provocation was carefully designed and timed to overlap with the US election.
So many advantages! A distraction if and when needed. Should the Russians take the bait (unlikely), the most pluperfect opportunity to take all the media focus off the stolen election and get a really good hate going on Russia (again).
That has all the watermarks of a Washington plan. No downside (for them). They can even blame Trump for the failure of US-initiated peace talks.
Don’t you see that you can excuse Russian inaction ad infinitum by saying wouldn’t Obama, Bush, Hitler… rejoice…
They would. So what. Also it is not about launching a strike but working preventively (using intelligence etc.) to prevent such snafus from taking place. Here, Russia has patently failed.
If you are going to disagree with me, Anubis, why not pick something I have said to disagree with?
The thing I mainly disagree with is the obsession with not provoking the enemy at any cost. It’s getting tiresome and counterproductive. The Irish Jesuit Anglophobe and Russophobe Biden has already marked Russia as his number one target. He might as well get his wish.
Your logic is flawed. A retaliatory strike would only make things worse and pave way for another conflict involving Russia, just what the Americans need.
Russia is in a good position now regarding N-K. It can use this advantage to keep both the Azeris and the Turks at bay. The peace treaty agreed on by all parties, gives Russians the legitimacy to operate in N-K.
Indeed, that is why Russia is always between a stone and a hard place when this “accidents” happen, it risks getting bad press with its national public opinion, especially the most ardently patriotic one, but also risks entering in full into obvious provocations..
Russia will extract a pound of flesh for the chopper shoot down, one ounce at a time. No rush.
Cheers, M
Jihadi families wanting to know what happened to their beloved……….regardless of who, what was behind the NK flare up, removing hardened, brain washed crimminals would have been high on Erdo, Putin, Assad, Hiz’b Christmas wish list…………hopefully Santa came early.
Putin: Russian peacekeepers headed for Nagorno-Karabakh as Azerbaijan & Armenia sign armistice.
RT
Russian ministry of defense: The Russian peacekeepers are departing for Karabakh by Il-76 aircraft from Ulyanovsk airfield.
The Russian peacekeeping forces command centre will be created in Karabakh’s capital to oversee the peacekeeping operation, the military said, adding that the Russian peacekeeping contingent will have 1,960 servicemen, 90 armoured personnel carrier, and 380 items of equipment.
It looks like Russia did not lost control over the Caucasus after all. Did the “mistake” (downing the russian Mi-24) by the azerbaijanni army accelerate the process?
https://sputniknews.com/world/202011091081109232-aliyev-says-turkey-and-russia-will-jointly-carry-out-peacekeeping-activities-in-karabakh/
Wonderful. The Turks, the arch enemy of the Orthodox Christians get an entry into Karabakh (Armenian Christian land) without a single soldier killed. Their control of their Azeri proxy has been masterful and they can certainly consider this a major geopolitical victory. Unlike the Russians who are still boasting about not losing Crimea to a decrepit Vukropia.
I shall support Russia till my last breath but cannot watch this farce and pretend that the Russians somehow hold the upper hand or are playing some kind of ingenious game. Geopolitically, Russia is experiencing a serious nadir and needs to up its game quickly. It is being surrounded from all sides and is pretending that everything is all right.
I read the official statement of the agreement between Russia Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Turkey is not mentioned at all.
First, significant territory has been lost to Azerbaijan/Turkey. Second, here is what Boris Rozhin has to say (Google translate):
This will allow the Russian Federation to partially compensate for the unpleasant reality with Turkey, which has slipped into Russia’s usual sphere of influence. Even if Erdogan does not receive his peacekeepers in Karabakh, he will receive a direct corridor through Nakhichevan and Armenia to Azerbaijan, and Azerbaijan itself will rotate much more intensively in the orbit of the geopolitical structures of the “Friend of Recep” , who skillfully played out the Pashinyan factor to strengthen his influence in the Transcaucasus. Russia was largely preoccupied with minimizing the damage from the war and Pashinyan’s previous actions.
Anubis – that is EXACTLY the attitude which resulted in Armenia losing this war.
Also, please remember that Russia owes Armenia exactly *nothing* and that Russia has no need for Armenia in the first place.
It’s the other way around which matters :-)
Saker – whose attitude? It is clear that the Armenians were behaving badly and that Russia doesn’t owe them anything. But the new situation on the ground is hardly favourable to Russia, isn’t it? Turkey is involved in something that should be a purely Russian affair. Russia should have been able to sort this out on its own.
There was a guy like you on this site named ‘Biswapriya’ who was always bashing Russia.
Russia managed the conflict really well. They’re now in a position to dictate terms on both parties that were involved in the conflict. Admit it
Happily – because I don’t aim to bash Russia. Neither am I prepared to let incompetent decisions ruin her future.
…shall support Russia till my last breath…….
Why? Did Russia support Serbs during the war? I only remember GRU officers and ordinary people volunteering in the war. The Russian people have as much to do with their governments in Russia as the Serbs have with theirs in Serbia. Don’t be ashamed. Let the Croats support them. They received weapons from the Russians during the war. The Russians have a tradition of world power, and that means there is no love but interests. They have the right not to quarrel with the Germans and the Turks from their position of view and not allow Anglo-Zionists to rub their hands. We and Armenians are consumer goods, adolescents who will learn a lesson and teach children and future generations what is the nature of the big powers and pragmatism. It is best to stick to the articles concerning the Serbian issue, and there to seek justice. This all is a good example of how Serbs would end up next to the “Russian brothers in arms” if a revolution is raised against NATO SOFA / IPAP masters. Don’t forget that Russia support Small Schengen union in Balkan. Part of the strategy of socializing with the Turks and going “down the hair” in globalist divison plans. Now starts what they call “peaceful reintegration” and the slow emigration of the rest of Armenians. Milosevic did not react there either (a good book by Domagoj Margetic “Bloody Balcan billions”). Everything has already been seen and tried in the Balkans.
Hi, Djole,
There is one simple reason – without Russia, there would be no Serbia or Armenia. This is not to excuse many appalling faux pas committed by the Russian government but to acknowledge the fact that without Russia they would soon be torn apart by their bloodthirsty enemies. Don’t you agree? The most craven of surrenders to NATO or the Turks would help them.
That is exactly the policy of globalists and their words centuries long. They create the conditions for small nations to bond with larger ones and serve their goals of satisfying interests. Including those who launder their money. It is the fault of small nations, but they can do nothing because their services and academia work for the international. For money and pat on the shoulder, while they dont see nation as something more important than the international theater where they present themselves as “important” pawns. So called “elite”….
You know what they say ….. the devil’s biggest trick is to convince people it doesn’t exist.
Perhaps. In an ideal world there would be no nations etc. One day we might grow up and realise that all of this is nonsense. Until then, God in heavens, Russia on Earth.
If you are not a Serb, I apologize. I mistaken you for someone.
In any case, nationalism is the immune system of a state, not internationalism. It is an inevitable disease. And what you are commenting on today is a typical consequence of this disease in some countries. The symptoms are stronger or weaker, but the globalistic syndrome is constantly there. Only when international influence is reduced, will both Russia and Armenia recover. Is this possible? At the moment, not. Once that segment is resolved, there will be no environment from which to spread the disease. Regards
Sorry, would not help them.
Not so fast Saker…
https://www.rt.com/russia/506240-aliyev-turkish-peacekeeprs-karabakh/
If confirmed, Turkish Troops and Jihadist mercenaries in NK hardly sounds like a Russian victory to me, and more like the seeds for a disaster and prolonged Syria style proxy war. How many more ‘accidents’ will Putin have to pretend were accidents?
NATO troops next door to Iran and Russia… was that the original plan?
and how do you propose removing NATO from the Iranian or Russian border?
A nuclear war?
Get real. Read more. Think.
But you do concede that NATO has pushed its way into the Russian “soft underbelly” (either through Pashinyan or Erdogan). A great power should have been able to prevent this by hook or by crook. All we are doing now is excusing its rearguard actions post hoc.
Slow down a second… who said anything about ‘removing’ NATO or nukes?
I just asked a question about Turkish ‘peacekeepers’ being reported, something that if true, paints quite a different picture from a Russian ‘victory’ and more one of Turkey successfully expanding into the Caucasus after attacking a nation supposedly protected by Russia and once again downing a Russian aircraft with impunity, along with all the added ‘NATO menace next door’ dimension for both Russia and Iran if Turkish troops are there to stay in NK. Clearly, if anyone was afraid of nuclear war, it wasn’t Turkey, again.
But since you asked how to ‘remove’ them, perhaps by not inviting them. By signing weak defence treaties like the ambiguous CSTO that meant little in practical terms and effectively failed at deterrence. By not being ‘friends’ with both Turkey and Israel as Russian troops fight for the Syrian Gov’t. By not acting as a corrupt overlord and giving all your neighbours motivation to seek better deals with the EU and USA.
Turkey downed a Russian plane knowing Russia could not retaliate because of Nato, just as it sent thousands of troops across the border right under Russia’s nose, and can fire as many missiles across the border if it wants to, knowing that if one single Russian missile lands in Turkey it can call on article 5. Article 5 has real military and geopolitical implications, which CSTO clear does not. Azeri troops didn’t cross the border into Armenia proper, but targets were bombed on Armenian territory with impunity, and the fact a helicopter, Russian or not, was targeted across the border while flying in Armenian airspace, says everything about Azeri troops not being effectively deterred by this treaty.
Russia’s ‘friends with everyone’ approach is a double edged sword which is being exploited and is an obstacle to achieving its stated goals at times. While not quite the schizophrenic and contradictory foreign policies of the USA, it nevertheless produces limited results, as its red lines continue being tested with the net result being NATO always closer with every local proxy conflict, domestic rancour and feelings of betrayal, reduced troop morale, and a diminishing of Russia’s credibility as an effective security guarantor.
As far as I’m concerned, this is a model reply. Every loss is masked as a tactical victory and every retreat as a geopolitical win – as getting rid of “unfaithful” allies. It is precisely the milquetoast nature of the “defensive alliance” with its weak guarantees that is inviting further incursions into Russian sphere of influence.
The veracity of the above is easy to confirm – it is Russian borderlands that are being ripped apart by NATO’s proxies and not some other country’s. Until this situation is reversed, I’ll feel free to point out the truth.
By the way, the US and Euro Reich have a very clear fundamental position which they’ve followed since 1945 – weaken Russia, expand the Reich and ensure global US (and Western) supremacy. If only some of that clarity were detectable on the other side…
OK, but to be fair, not that easy when u govern 11 (?) time zones and have always been playing catch up through famines, economic sabotage and endemic instability… while some (the Saker) may feel aggrieved i was being too harsh on Russia and allege I am somehow misinformed or stupid… i am not entirely ignorant to its geopolitical and historical context or its numerous strategic challenges.
As for his original reply… my question still stands:
Why is it that Russia should fear Nuclear War for ‘kicking out Nato troops”, while Nato troops (seemingly) do not?
Why can they encroach on Russia’s borders? The Saker often puts this down to Western irresponsibility and recklessness. Though not disagreeing per se, i would also assign it to ineffective Russian power projection, and conversely, more effective power projection on Nato’s part.
What is the point of having nukes, when they do not serve their strategic intended purpose? Total annihilation potential should be matched with total respect and fear. Perhaps the US still benefits from the Hiroshima and Nagasaki legacy.. echoed by Napalm in Vietnam and many more recent displays of violence. Morality aside, and any intelligent reader will understand where i stand… has it perhaps proven its Machiavellian worth?
When one takes a sober look at the imbalance of encroachment over Russia vs the USA, the last prominent example being the Cuban missile crisis in the 60’s, where, unlike Russia, the US was willing to put the world on the brink to forsake the prospect of strategic threats in its own immediate neighbourhood.
I am not advocating for brinkmanship, but, i also want to point out that, IMHO, Russia could play its hand more effectively, particularly in this moment of US leadership weakness, coupled with Russian qualitative superiority (hypersonics) albeit quantitatively limited (limited deployment). Basically, to use some of the US doctrine.. “every now and then someone needs to have their head cracked to show who’s really the boss”… in areas where it is imperative to do so, lest the reluctance to act early and proactively necessitate more drastic, reactionary action down the line.
NATO hasn’t projected power in E. Europe. Belorussia is clearly under control. Ukraine was a disaster partly due to Yanukovich’s fault.
Russia does enough power projection. That’s how Georgia was put in its place and the situation in Belarus was controlled
Indeed, that was the original plan, I said it from the beginning when it was obvious that the jihadis were being shuttled to the southern Karabakh borders, and i do not discard Pashinyan has been hired to facilitate this…
This was a way to alocate thousands of proxy thugs for a coming yerror war on Iran. Hence the Iranians are packing troops in their northwestern borders..
Been fascinating to watch the time line of this affair.
Fighting breaks out. Many words fly. Putin expresses regrets. The 2 warring Presidents meet in Moscow, and agree a cease fire – but go on fighting. They are invited to Washington, agree a cease fire, Trump crows his triumph. They go on fighting.
Then they shoot down a Russian chopper killing Russians. Within hours, President Putin has spoken to them, they have agreed to stop fighting. and this time seem to have done so, with peacekeepers set to patrol the current border.
Methinks the Boss got furious and laid down the law – and both warring Presidents were told exactly where they stand.
There is a saying in Russia “Beware of the patient person – for when their patience runs out, they explode”.
And there’s Alexander Mercouris over at the Duran saying that “Putin is clearly tired, not he man he was, getting ready to go, the way is being prepared for him, he wont last his term”. Bah!!!!
Mr Mercouris is good within his field of expertise. But he is not a military man.
God willing, peace will return to the suffering people of Armenia and Azerbaijan.
And, God willing, the Armenians will learn their lesson and never forget it again: Russia is their only real friend.
My wishes for the peoples of Azerbaijan and Armenia as well. Hopefully the second will also be granted.
It’s good news that RF has acted quickly to despatch peacekeepers and that they’re already in place as we speak. Hopefully the ceasefire will hold.
I can’t believe that many here are braying about RF’s ‘lack of resolve’ especially after the Mi-24 shootdown. They want to see RF reply in kind and escalate the fighting — are they oblivious to the suffering of both Armenians and Azeris (5 000 dead already) or have they had an overdose of video games? What is certain is that they’ve not seen war nor do they understand the destructive power of modern weapons. I’ve said this before about them: They speak — as Roger Waters would say — with the bravery of being out of range.
Here is the first paragraph of the Ceasefire Agreement. It has nine clauses, too long to post the whole lot here, so I’ve added a link to the source. Note that this is from an Armenian site. Hopefully it’s a faithful reproduction of the actual contents.
“9 Points Signed by Aliyev, Pashinyan, Putin on Karabakh”
“We, President of the Republic of Azerbaijan I. G. Aliyev, Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia Nikolai Pashinyan and President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin announced the following:
1. A complete ceasefire and all hostilities in the zone of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict are announced from 00:00 hours Moscow time on November 10, 2020. The Republic of Azerbaijan and the Republic of Armenia, hereinafter referred to as the Parties, stop at their positions.”
……
https://www.civilnet.am/news/2020/11/10/9-Points-Signed-by-Aliyev-Pashinyan-Putin-on-Karabakh/407092
Bottomline: The situation was dire in N-K with it being in danger of being cut off from Armenia. There was a danger of N-K being lost to Azerbaijan. Pashinyan said the same in not so many words. The president of N-K and his parliament agreed to the deal, implying they also came to the same conclusion.
Pashinyan might fall because of the capitulation — for that is what it is — and if reports of angry demos at Armenian government offices are real, that may come to pass.
Azerbaijan and Turkey are also tired of fighting; in fact Erdogan asked Putin to push Armenia to negotiate, according to RT.
This is a trilateral agreement. Turkey is not mentioned, so reports of Turkey sending peacekeepers may not be accurate.
“They speak — as Roger Waters would say — with the bravery of being out of range”.
And nowadays the first axiom of war is “no one is out of range”.
Yes, you may be right Tom. If only the war-mongers could understand that.
It is NATO that is out of range. Russians, Armenians and Iranians are WITHIN the range thanks to NATO. Those of us who sympathise with the latter want them to push NATO back (including NATO’s Salafist Cerberus Turkey). We don’t look kindly on the Turks and their proxies pushing into Russia’s underbelly. No?
Waters is right. Apparently, chickenhawk warmonger Biden escaped service in Vietnam because he suffered from ‘asthma’ (!). Ditto Trump who escaped military service because of ‘bad feet’ (bone spurs).
Great Analysis! The same is being carried out on the ground now. Russian peacekeepers are heading towards Nagarno Karabakh. Such a relief! May God help Russia and Putin to maintain peace.
Russia: “I’m not your best friend, I’m your only friend”.
Saker,
Could you say something about what the peacekeepers would do.
We saw Russian peacekeepers go into South Ossetia and this was part of Georgia.
The conflict was frozen until Saakashvili.
Then as we know South Ossetia left Georgia
What I want to know is are the peacekeepers there to preserve autonomy of NK?
Can Armenians live there?
Does this freeze the conflict ?
Plus regarding Armenia- where are the old guard the previous leaders that had good relationships with Moscow ?
Armenia saw that no one was prepared to help them but they will blame Russia
Even Georgia allowed terrorists to travel across its territory to the war
Iran was neutral but provided a threatening presence to stop real escalation On its border
“Even Georgia allowed terrorists to travel across its territory to the war”.
“EVEN Georgia”? Which country would be more likely to try stabbing Russia (or Armenia) in the back?
Of course, we allow ourselves to remain in a state of partial delusion when we speak of Georgia, or Armenia, or Azerbaijan, or Turkey, or even Russia.
Those are not monolithic entities, each with one clearly defined set of interests.
Those countries are ruled by human beings, each of whom has individual wishes and fears. Many of whom are not averse to money, luxury, and power – or at least promises of those things.
So often nowadays what a given country is said to be doing is not at all what its citizens would wish. But, as we have seen, once a given clique has taken control, it takes enormous efforts and bravery to get rid of them. Even in Ukraine.
“Even Georgia allowed terrorists to travel across its territory to the war …”
And may happen that this will cost the government its head, ad almost all opposition parties ( including United Georgia of Nino Burjanadze ) are claiming election fraud and for a repeta of elections…
I doubt the patriotic Georgians are not watching what is happeneing in their close neighborhood and are not taking notes…apart from those notes they already had on the dark rumours coming from US Biolabs in their territory…
Some may have thought they were advancing their positions towatds Russia with this carnage, but in the end may find the former Soviet space returns to where it belongs…
the current state of affairs in the US may sign to any thinking head that the future is inside any other defense alliance which is not NATO…
If the Turkish peacekeepers really arrive, they will stay in areas under Azeri control.
And they are already in Azerbaijan so no big deal.
Russians will be deployed in Armenian regions.
So no need to be upset too much.
And Russians sent soldiers so quickly that it is obvious that these peacekeepers were prepared long ago…because negotiations were going for certain time
Incident with russian helicopter did not change anything it was just unfortunate event
Here is a confirmation that Turkish troops are entering NK. According to President Aliyev (Google translate):
The peacekeeping mission in the zone of the Karabakh conflict will be a Russian-Turkish one, and this is one of the points of the statement being signed today, said Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev during a video meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
https://rusvesna.su/news/1604980963
Not that it matters. The point is that Russia can hardly afford the “you’ve been nasty to us, now we’ll punish you by surrendering you to our enemies” – attitude.
I wouldn’t believe till any photos or videos come out
It is quite clear that this conflict was staged from day one.
Pashinyan was installed by the West and Israel to be Turkey’s regional agent against Russia and Iran.
To eliminate his pro-Russian, anti-liberal enemies, Pashinyan collaborated with Erdoğan and Aliyev to instigate a war he had no intention to win.
Pashinyan sent his pro-Russian, anti-liberal enemies to the frontline, woefully ill-equipped to handle the long-prepared Turkish-Azerbaijani assault—by design.
The Turks used Azerbaijani territory to bring in ISIS and sundry other allied terrorists from Syria, Libya, and the rest of the Sunni world. Pakistani SF and ISI were involved, too.
The Saudis quietly backed the Turks all along, given the presence of their “signature,” ISIS, on the frontline. The Saudis merely handed over their proxies to the Turks et al.
In short, this was/is a pure replay of the 1990s’ Turkish-Azerbaijani-Pakistani-Saudi axis against Russia and Iran. Of course, the Turks et al. are just Western and Zionist puppets in all this.
Russia’s only real error, in my view, was its failure to forestall the West’s pro-Pashinyan colour-revolution in Armenia to begin with. Had Russia done so, all this might have been avoided.
Agree, more or less, especially in the role of Pashinyan here…do not forget he is a Western agent, and held the same stance of Tikhanovskaya, disguised himself as youngstevr revolutionary with a backpack and when meeting former head of Armenian government, allegedly for to talk and negotitate, he just delivered the ultimatum dictatoed from NATO…Too much for peaceful talking…once yo ushow a nit of weakness they give you the knock, a lesson, imo, well learnt by old Lukashenko..
I have the same feeling with those news about Naryshkin going to Belarus to tell the strong man in Minsk he is not doing it well, since protests continue…
I have the feeling that Russia just leaves these color revolutions stablish as if they had no remedy…
This position does not psint well for Russia, after the so hard work of the last 20 years, seems that it is again on the brink of another general looting.
I agree in that Russia can not enter the bullfighter cape anytime NATO holds it in front of its horns, but one would say that or they react in a certain manner or they are doomed one way or the other.
They will always try to come for the riches achieved through 20 years of hard work, recall this people are not accustomed to work hard to achieve anything, they simply go there and grab it, as they are doing in Syria, Lybia and so on..
To Daniel
“Russia’s only real error was it’s failure to forestall the West’s pro-Pashinyan color-ravolution in Armenia to begin with”? What is it with you people? Russia is NOT a meddling, interferring and aggressive entity as some others that we all know. Why do you insist on applying same standards to Russia? Russian Government is doing exactly what they need, and have to do, at any given time. And what it doesn’t need is having to rush all over the place putting out various, deliberately lit fires along her borders. Let them burn, if people there are stupid and gullable enough to offer their places for such destruction, as far as Russia is concerned, it has a strong, inpenetrable firewall. Also it believes that the best way to learn a lesson is living through it. For the fear of repeating this over and over – Russia does NOT need all these former Soviet Republics at all, perhaps with just one exception-Belorussia, as it is an integral part of actual Russia proper, Russian land. That was the reason for the Union Agreement – to eventually integrate it back to where it belongs. All the others are now fully independent and Russia does not interfere in their affair. In fact, prefers not to. If those want to co-operate, trade and have friendly relations with Russia – by all means, but that’s where it stops. When that fact is clearly understood, everything else becomes self-explanatory.
Katerina, I am happy to hear that the Russian government is doing everything right. I have a genuine question: What happens when all of these surrounding countries/enclaves host NATO and its death squads/bio-labs for extraction of Slav DNA? Is it not better to prevent this from happening by a proactive stance which makes clear the cost of surrendering to Russia’s enemies? I just don’t believe that Russia is not capable of influencing the direction of local politics such that it neutralises NATO within its sphere of influence.
Perhaps I am not aware of such outcomes because they are kept sub rosa but perhaps you can give us a thumbs up.
I am deliberately being provocative but am happy to accept that Russia has done something deliberately in its interest – but not if a bungle or meander is turned into a great success post hoc.
Spasibo
In Russia the nationalists—who, in turn, must be distinguished from the patriots—synergise with the liberals to achieve the West’s long-sought goal: the dissolution of Russia as a multinational, civilisational, organic entity, reduced to a heterogeneous husk, ripe for the taking. Naturally, the Soviet mode of development must be annihilated at all costs, by any means necessary. Therefore, the state-forming Russian people and their non-Russian brethren must be made to view each other with hostility and derision. Ethnic nationalism and religious chauvinism serve to enervate the Soviet spirit. Unsurprisingly, both the nationalists and the liberals concur that Russia must be willing to abandon its former sphere of influence, to retreat inward: that is, return to Muscovy. Muscovy, by itself, is pre-Russian and anti-Soviet. The West is thus permitted to seize all the non-Russian components of Russia herself.
I don’t see any gains here for Russia, quite on the contrary. Firstly, it seems to be that Azeri corruptland (where dissidents are killed exactly like in Turkey) and Russia have had some type of collusion. I don’t think such a thing, but it’s enough it seems to be so. It will be back with a vengeance in similar points like Donbass, Transnistria, Abkhazia, and why not, Crimea. Secondly, there is another bad feeling about Russia could do far more for Armenia, once again, it’s enough it seems to be so. Of course the guy in Armenia was doing wrongly, but all of this is hardly to see as a Russian win.
There is another major problem here. Russia cultivates too much Azerbaijan clearly because it is an oil and gas provider, and I can’t see how you can develop any resilient alliance on such a terms, it’s enough to see how this matters worked on OPEC. Even with current US stupidity this is fault base, and Germany, another country whose friendship Russia cultivated and prized with a punching in the balls (the Navalny show), it will be the first country in order to drive away Azerishow from Russia as soon as its new master Biden (not at all any senile) gives the green light. Don’t make a mistake here, Biden will remain the whole four years term, it will be used to wash Kamala’s face and preparing her to 2024 election.
About Turkey convenience alliance with Russia, enough to say, Turkey never broke nor will break his links either with EU or NATO. It’s pretty clear, the day Erdogan simply tries it, he will be killed with no failures this time. Erdogan is making the game US, Israel and its poppet EU want, and it is impossible Russia don’t see this.
I don’t know what other solutions were on the table, but it is not a win for Russia at all. It even will have consequences on Iran, which will drift away from Russia and be closer to China. In fact, Russia itself is staying in the same place as Armenia is, between a rock and a hard place.
I see all this the first serious error of Putin’s administration.
Here come the Turko-bot with the Erdogan is bo saint but, … Oh yeah, he is.
Everywhere Turkey goes is sectarian and ethnic conflict. To deny it is to loe through your propagandist teeth.
I read in other reports that the Russian Peacekeepers would be positioned along the frontline. If so, where exactly is that now, does anyone know?
There is a map there with a Line Of Contact for the peacekeepers….dotted white line……no idea if accurate…other maps show a vastly reduced enclave that is N-K….cannot copy that …check out Spriter on twitter which is where that is.
See if this works
https://mobile.twitter.com/spriter99880/status/1326200382935199745
Politically, this is clear and obvious Russian victory. In the future this fact will be even more obvious.
It is clear that Turkey continues to project the most direct influence in the Region, and is beyond the control of any other: the EU, NATO, or the US..
Erdogan, (pronounced Er-do-wan) appears to be fearless, and to paraphrase his message to Trump this summer, “You don’t seem to realize who you are dealing with”..
Despite not being included in the NK peace agreement, there they are, a presence in a Transcaucasus in which they were historically absent..
Mr Putin appears unwilling or unable to change the course of Turkey’s influence.. Given its struggling economy, sanctions would appear to be the only solution to curb Erdogan’s grand ambitions..
Putin may not want antagonize Turkey so much on the grounds of achieving second army on NATO disbanding from that military alliance…
Turkey is the leader of the West’s “Sunni NATO.” The West and Israel have long preferred Turkish to Saudi influence, given its wider geopolitical scope, which impinges on Iranian, Chinese, and Russian influence in South-Central Asia. Turkey is the newfound leader of the Sunni wave whose crest threatens to engulf the Islamic world. Saudi Arabia lacks the capability to act independently of the West, so it must provide financial support to its archenemy Turkey, whose Muslim Brotherhood happens to be the West’s favourite Sunni client.
Erdoğan’s ideology is incorrectly ascribed to Ottoman revivalism. In fact, it synthesises two Anglo-Saxon concoctions: Wahhabi–Salafi and Nazi ideology. Erdoğan believes in a Turkish expression of Saudi Islamism, one that also melds readily with pan-Turkic extremism, that fascist-Nazi fount of ethnic nationalism. Neither Saudi Islamism nor pan-Turkic ideology was a product of the former Ottoman Empire, but of late-eighteenth-century British imperialism, which also spawned Zionism: all means to secure the Indian Raj from Russia and Germany.
Fittingly, Erdoğan advances Zionist as well as Saudi ambitions, both of which serve as fronts for the Anglo-Saxons. Erdoğan’s AKP and his erstwhile “ally” Fethullah Gülen have received ample funds from the Saudis for decades, as F. William Engdahl, among others, has disclosed. (The Saudis were the first to shield the Muslim Brothers from the wrath of pan-Arab nationalism, following the West’s turn against Nasser of Egypt.) The chain of command in the MENA and its environs: U.S. → U.K. → Israel → Saudi Arabia → Turkey et al.
Incidentally, the Anglo-Saxons’ puppet regime in NATO-occupied Germany also controls the Greek financial system, so Greece is unable to act effectively as a counterweight to Turkish expansionism, given that Erdoğan’s moves are sanctioned at the highest levels of the West, and are quietly approved by the Zionist-controlled Saudis. So the Zionist Macron’s “huffing and puffing” about big, bad Turkey is just that: good cop, bad cop. (Similarly, Hindutva/RSS/BJP is directly tied to the Pakistani ISI, itself a CIA/MI6/Mossad cutout.)
This also explains why India is acquiescing to Pakistani dominance in Afghanistan vis-à-vis the U.S.-Taliban deal, which serves to weaken Iranian, Russian, and Chinese influence all at once, while justifying India’s becoming a Zionist/Saudi vassal on behalf of the Anglo-Saxon-run West, to be used in conjunction with Pakistan against Iranian-Russian-Chinese integration in South-Central Asia. The West is preparing to unleash a massive Sunni wave against Iran, Russia, and China. Rapprochement between Pakistan and India on this matter works.
Britain will always act to counter other powers becoming too strong. It is also one of the principal enemies of Russia. However, it did side with Russia in two world wars – in which Germany played the Islamist card to the fullest extent (Germany’s Jihad in WWI and Muslim SS legions etc. in WW2). Your last sentence is interesting – care to elaborate?
” However, [Britain] did side with Russia in two world wars…”
That turns out not to be the case.
In WW1, Britain sided with France – mostly due to the extremely perverse and secretive way the Foreign Secretary, Sir Edward Grey, told the French government that they could count on British support no matter what. Grey could not possibly have been stupid enough not to understand quite well that this would have the effect of making the French behave insufferably towards Germany, thus bringing about a war that could and should have been avoided.
Britain had a long tradition of opposing Russia, and that had not changed. It happened that France chose to ally itself with Russia. Thus the Germans saw, quite reasonably, that in any war with France they would be the nut in a nutcracker, which meant they had to knock out France before Russia was fully mobilised. That, in turn, meant coming through Belgium and Holland, which made Germany look bad and helped the British to justify their policies.
In WW2, things were even clearer. Germany invaded Poland; as dictated by FDR, France and Britain obediently declared war on Germany (accomplishing nothing) – and FDR then fulfilled his obligation by remaining neutral for 27 months. Poland was invaded by the USSR at the same time as by Germany; the two were united by the Molotov-Ribbentrop Non-Aggression Pact (non-aggression against each other, obviously, not Poland).
About six months later, Germany conquered France and then attacked Britain. The Battle of Britain and the Blitz ground on, and eventually the Germans had to admit defeat and stand down. After a long pause, Hitler launched Operation Barbarossa against the USSR. At that moment – and not before – the USSR and Britain were quite fortuitously on the same side against Germany.
For the 20 months between France and Germany’s declaration of war on Germany and Barbarossa, the USSR had been effectively allied to Germany, supplying it with vast amounts of war material and giving it training facilities for its tankists and flyers.
Please don’t distort history by claiming that Britain “sided with Russia”. It has never done so.
I don’t quite understand. Are you saying that Britain lost 1 million lives in WWI fighting Russia’s enemy for show?
That it supported USSR in WWII after facing Hitler on its own despite the fact that the USSR was at least neutral if not inimical during the Blitz?
President Putin has been trying very hard to prevent pro-German pro-Vatican distortions of recent history. I’m with him on this.
During the First World War, the British and the Vatican—and, to a lesser extent, certain French networks allied to the Anglo-Saxons and the Papacy—manipulated the Habsburg (Austro-Hungarian) Empire into declaring war on Orthodox Serbia. The assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand et al. was a false flag orchestrated by Anglophile (Anglican)-Roman networks that operated through Freemasonry. The false flag was designed to implicate Serbia and draw Russia into a well-laid trap that would end up destroying both Orthodoxy and Bismarckian Germany. Foreign Secretary Grey adroitly exploited the existing system of bilateral treaties—principally, by telling each power what the British and their Papal handlers wanted it to hear. By doing so, the British and the Vatican, along with their French proxies, were able to reconquer and destroy Bismarck’s Germany, by forcing it into a two-front war and successfully enticing the Americans into the conflict.
Fortunately, their plans against Russia went awry, following the Bolshevik Revolution, Lenin’s independent path, and then Stalin’s war on the Entente’s pro-fascist, pro-Zionist tool, Leon Trotsky. That’s why the perpetrators of the First World War organised the Second through their Anglican-Roman agents: Hitler, Mussolini, and Franco. Dollfuss had to be assassinated because he was, like the Catholic laity, straying from the “party line” established by the aristocrats in Vatican City, the Papacy having been newly reconstituted, at least officially, as an independent entity by that British/Papal agent, Mussolini, whose career was backed by the Freemasons. The entire buildup to the Second World War, indeed, the entire war and its aftermath, constituted a crusade against the USSR and Stalin, an avowed anticapitalist, who had the nerve to establish a state-run bank and currency that was to operate independently of the Swiss Templars and Knights of Malta, the hidden, Roman masters of the West’s financial monopoly.
People do not realise that the West is a religious project and has been since the Briton Constantine.
It seems it´s you who distort hisotry, since the USSR never “allied with Germany”, less, of course, “supplied it with vast ammounts of war material and trainning facilities”, that is just a NATO current point.
The only thing the USSR did was sing a pact of no agression with Germany, but not before both France and Britain had signed their own, so that gaining time to built its war machine and translate its factories beyiond the Urals.
If anythingt the USSR has, apart from a strong will, it was a good foreign intelligence apparatus, there is no way they would not know Germany´s plans and would had been fool enough to help Germany in its way to exterminate the Russians.
You sound well informed and reasonable, but, from now on, I will be taking your point with a great grain of salt…
The Soviet Union was the LAST to sign a non-aggression treaty with Nazi-Germany in 1939.
Poland was the first to do so in 1934, followed by France and Britain.
And apparently the word “pact” does not appear anywhere on the Soviet Union – Nazi Germany treaty.
But it’s a word almost always used by historians and writers in the West when referring to that particular treaty
and yet never when referring to the others – not even to the 1938 Munich “Agreement” which signed away parts of Czechoslovakia to Nazi Germany, Poland and Hungary with no representative of Czechoslovakia present at the discussions.
A lot of hubris in you post. Now Russia is building multipolar world. Russia comes out of the trap without additional enemies and secures for 10 years a key geostrategic position, the heights between the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea, 1000 km from the Strait of Hormuz. All this without firing a shot. Nothing less than brilliant.
It can seem like events get dragged forward and dealt with these days that otherwise would happen in the future at some point anyway. Hopefully, it can be dealt with now and we can look towards a more positive future.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2LTFMopowHg
Some People think Putin will leave before this term is over (-2024)
I want to ask the saker and others about your opinion
The deal was signed to stop the Azeri advance. Armenia said stop and they said this is the price. Armenia had to accept their terms or they would have advanced and taken over Stepanakert. They would not have stopped and waited for Armenia to vote on it. Time was of the essence. Armenia would have lost more leverage in that case. When Shushi fell, the entire Artsakh was at risk. Imagine Azerbaijan in charge of Artsakh without any Russian peacekeepers. Azerbaijan spent 26 years and billions of oil wealth to buy weapons and mercenaries. On Armenia’s end, a lot of money was spent on other projects and a lot was stolen by various leaders and officials. The critical mistake in my opinion was to take an Anti-Russian stance the last 2 years as Russia was the only thing holding Azeri side back. The Turks saw the wedge between Armenia and Russia and took advantage. Armenia should be grateful to Russia when they did step in as they prevented further losses and massacres. We need to repair this relationship with Russia as the #1 priority. Replace Pashinyan ASAP. Accept that staying on a war footing with Turkey and Azerbaijan is not productive.
I was utterly wrong in my assumptions that Russia couldn’t do anything and that they were not in a position to intervene in the war. I also overestimated Sultan Erdogan.
Putin is indeed the greatest chess player in the game of geopolitics
But is it only the heli downing that facilitated a more determined course of action…or brought it forward?
Meanwhile the Armeniganda online is already hard at work spreading the idea that their entire defeat was the fault of Russia and only Russia.
It’s a mistaken analysis on the part of the Armenians. Without Russian intervention, Armenia would have lost the entire region and thousands of more men. We didn’t prepare for 26 years for this war, Azerbaijan did. The loss if the fault of Armenia and no one else. I tell my compatriots to be grateful to Russia for the intervention and the peacekeepers. We need to repair the relationship with Russia at all costs.