There are so many rumors and opinions about the latest ceasefire for Novorussia agreed between the Novorussian leaders and the Junta reps that I have decided to make a small survey of the issues in the format of a Q&A/FAQ. I will write up a real analysis next week. I also will use this opportunity to explain a few thing about what my own personal position is. So here goes:
Q: Do you support or oppose the latest peaceplan?
A: Neither. First, I still have not seen the 14 points actually agreed upon and, most importantly, I don’t believe that this plan will hold.
Q: Why not?
A: Because it is opposed by all the following groups: the USA, NATO, the Ukie Nazis, most of the Novorussian field commanders and a large segment of the Russian nationalist ideologues in Russia. Furthermore, Poroshenko is so weak that he probably cannot impose his will on others. Finally, the Ukies and their western supporters have so reneged on every agreement they signed/
Q: So you think that this agreement is irrelevent?
A: No, not at all. For one thing, it’s perfect timing took a lot of wind out of the sails of the anti-Russian crowd at the NATO summit which, after all, did not result in anything more than hot air and empty threats.
Q: Are you saying that this is a victory for Russia?
A: Hardly, but it has been an effective way to temporarily defuse a potentially dangerous situation. Also, the very fact that neither the EU or NATO or the US were even present in Minsk is a very powerful symbol of the fact that the “indispensable nation” and it instruments of colonial domination are not indispensable after all.
Q: But will this ceasefire not allow the Junta Repression Force (JRF) to regroup?
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| Ukrainian solider – Russian solider |
A: Yes, but that is not that relevant because of the size of its strategic depth the Junta can to reorganize and regroup anyway. Most the JRF units close to the front are so beat up that “regrouping” will not help very much. At best (“best” for the JRF of course), this ceasefire will turn a hasty retreat into a more or less organized withdrawal followed by a much needed break. But the key thing to always remember is this: wars are won by willpower, by moral strength, by a fighting spirit. Unlike the Russians, the Ukies have had their fighting spirit completely broken by the NAF. Check out the picture circulating on the RuNet which I have posted above. It shows a wounded Russian solider (from the 08.08.08 iirc) war against Georgia and a Ukrainian solider captured in Novorussia (who had been made famous by his militaristic and neo-Nazis videos posted on the Ukie social media). This montage shows something crucial: just compare the determined and undefeated expression of the severely wounded Russia private with the totally broken and terrified expression of the Ukrainian “paratrooper”. The difference here is not “Russian” vs “Ukrainian” in an ethnic sense (there is no such thing as an “ethnic Russian” or an “ethnic Ukrainian” – they are all ethnically mixed), but the difference in the fighting spirit of the Russian solider and the Ukrainian one. And no amount of US/NATO aid can change this: unlike the Ukie, the Russian knows what he is fighting for and he is determined.
Q: What about Mariupol?
A: What about it? The city is still surrounded and the Novorussian Armed Forces (NAF) will not retreat. All this ceasefire does is “freeze” the situation around this city. If anything, the Ukies will use it to cut and run.
Q: Will the NAF benefit ceasefire?
A: Yes. There are several “cauldrons” in the NAF rear which are a pain, well, in the rear, which will hopefully be flushed out by a mutual agreement to have the JRF units to move out and leave their weapons behind. If not, then please remember that the NAF control all of the Novorussian/Russian border and that the “voentorg” (cover delivery of weapons and specialists) will continue unabated.
Q: Are you saying that all is good and we should rejoice?
A: Not at all. First, there are clear signs of infighting in Novorussia. Not only was Strelkov apparently blackmailed out of control, but there have been rumors of an attempted coup by Antiufeev yesterday. The Novorussians denied this info, others say that the coup failed, but there is no doubt that there are real tensions inside Novorussia now and that while some support the current strategy of negotiations (we can refer to them as the “Zakharchenko clan”) others clearly oppose it (we can refer to them as the “Mozgovoi clan”). Likewise, in Russia there are those who favor this strategy (most of the “near-Kremlin” circles “околокремлевские круги” – I explain this term here) and those who oppose it (Dugin, Colonel Cassad, el-Miurid, and many other generally para-Marxist bloggers and activists).
Q: So you agree that this is bad for Novorussia?
A: No, I did not say that either. I think that this is probably an inevitable and possibly indispensable temporary phase in this conflict with is neither a triumph nor a disaster, but something which is a natural consequence of the situation on the ground.
Q: What do you mean?
A: Contrary to most commentators here, I do not believe that the NAF have been “treacherously stopped in what could have been their triumphant march on Kiev”. The amazing successes in the south have totally obscured in the minds of many the undeniable fact that the JRF forces north of Luganks are still big, powerful and holding their ground, that the Ukies even managed a (small and useless) counter-offensive in the region of Dukuchaevsk and that, contrary to initial reports, the Donetsk airport is still not under full NAF control. Those who had imagined that the NAF would soon move on and take Odessa, Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk or even Kiev just don’t understand the military situation. Right now, the NAF can’t even take back Slaviansk, nevermind reconquer all of Novorussia.
Q: What about the notion that Russian and Ukie oligarchs are the real force behind this deal?
A: What oligarchs? Akhmetov has not only lost Donetsk forever, even the material infrastructure of this assets is now in ruins. Kolomoiski has had this assets in Crimea nationalized and he is now locked in a struggle with both Akhmetov and Poroshenko. As for the Russian oligarchs – they have exactly zero needs for anything in the Donbass and they are way too smart to invest anything in such a dangerous, unstable and ruined region. At least in the short term, only the Russian state will provide help for political reasons, but the Russian oligarchs have much safer and lucrative options than the ruined Donbass.
Q: Okay, then what about the accusation that rather then allowing the creation of a viable and independent Novorussia, Putin has created yet another Transnistria?
A: What is this thesis based on? On a 14 point plan which nobody has seen and which will be soon broken anyway?
Q: No, on the fact that instead of fighting Poroshenko and the Nazis, the Novorussians have been forced to negotiate with them.
A: Oh come on! How many times will I have to explain that, unlike westerners, Russians have no problems at all talking to their enemies? Study the history of the Tatar-Mongol invasions of Russia when the Russian Princes were always talking “negotiating” with the Khans of the Golden Horde, and yet that never prevented them from rising up and fighting them regularly. Russians are much more Asians than Europeans and in Asia talking to your enemy is normal, it is an integral part of warfare. If in the West talking or negotiating with your enemy is a sign of weakness, in Asia it is not talking or negotiating with your enemy which is a sign of weakness.
Q: So what do you think Putin want in this war?
A: What he always said he wanted: a united, independent, neutral, prosperous and friendly Ukraine, in other words – “regime change” in Kiev.
Q: So will he “sell out” Novorussia to achieve this goal?
A: I don’t know. Unlike so many armchair generals who apparently also moonlight as telepaths and prophets, I cannot read Putin’s mind or predict the future. What I can say is that so far I see no signs of Putin betraying or “selling out” anybody. In fact, it takes an amazing degree of blindness or intellectual dishonesty not to notice that the first and immediate consequence of what many assume was a Kremlin-ordered change in the Novorussian leadership has been a huge and successful offensive which crushed the JRF. If Putin wanted to “sell out” Novorussia to the Nazis, he could have easily done so just before that counter-offensive was launched.
Q: So you really love and trust Putin, don’t you?
A: No, but I will admit that what I have seen this man do for Russia and the world fills me with sincere admiration, often bordering an awe, and that I see absolutely no signs of him changing course. What I see is a leader whose methods and strategies are simply too subtle and complex for most “armchair heads of states” to understand. The very same Putin-bashing crowd which now is hysterically yelling about betrayal was saying exactly the same things about Syria when Putin single handedly stopped the US attack on it. And when the Russians told the Syrian to get rid of their (dangerous and useless) chemical weapons the same Putin-bashers were yelling from the top of their lungs that this was the ultimate proof of Russian back-stabbing. Now Assad has, if not won the civil war, but conducted a successful reelection and the West is now eating humble-pie and pondering how to best get Assad’s help in Iraq. So while I don’t “love” Putin, I sure despise the Putin-bashers not only for their short-sightedness and lack of expertise, but for their mind-blowing intellectual dishonesty. They are like a broken record constantly repeating “Putin betrayed, Putin betrayed, Putin betrayed”. In Russia this kind of rabid nationalists are called “горе патриоты” or “sorrow-patriots”. They are the kind that never actually do anything useful, but are the most vociferous about what should be done. I want to make it clear that I am not referring to Strelkov, Mozgovoi or any other real patriot who happens to disagree with Putin. I am referring to those for whom Putin-bashing is an end in itself and who basically don’t give a damn as long as they get to bash the man.
Q: Still, Novorussia wants independence while Putin wants a united Ukraine. Don’t you see the contradiction here?
A: Of course I do. So? That does not mean that one side is “bad” and the other one “good”, it just shows the truth of the US saying that “where I sit is where I stand”. The real question is how this contradiction will be resolved. So far I don’t know and I reserve judgment precisely because, unlike the “professional and full-time Putin bashers” I like to base my opinions on fact, not telepathy or prophetic visions.
Q: You constantly speak of “Putin bashers” – that is offensive to many!
A: Guess what? I am not a nice guy. I am an direct guy who calls it as he sees it and if that offends anybody, they are welcome to hug a teddy-bear and go sob on their bed. My message to them is – grow-up and remember that I owe you nothing. This is my blog and I write it for adults who value truthfulness and honesty over sugar-coated affirmations.
Q: What about Poroshenko – has he not won a huge break if not victory?
A: Yesterday I was watching the latest edition of the priceless Ukie propaganda show “Shuster Live” and it felt like I was watching a funeral. The host and all the guest were in a somber, sorrowful and quasi-depressed mode. Though they did not want to admit the magnitude of the beating which their “invincible Ukrainian army” just had taken, it was pretty darn clear that flag-waving was no more the order of the day. One Ukie official even said “when we are talking about 30 to 40 thousand armed men then we *have to* talk to tehse “terrorists”” – it was hilarious, really. So no. Poroshenko, far from having “won” anything, is in real deep trouble. For starters, his own Prime Minister – Iatseniuk – is absolutely outraged about the deal and makes no bones about it. Ditto for Timoshenko. I won’t even go into the Nazi freaks. The fact is that the protecting Poroshenko will now become a major headache for the local CIA station in Kiev: the guy is in HUGE trouble and his only hope is that during the next elections he will look less bad and less crazy then the rest of them. That is assuming these elections are held and that Iarosh or Tiagnibok do not simply seize power and execute Poroshenko for “high crimes, treason or being an FSB agent” (he is not, but how cares?!). The regime is so much on the defense that even though everybody knows that this plan is really Putin’s plan, the Junta is engaged in a massive PR effort to convince the public that this is really Poroshenko’s plan. The Russians, typically, just smile and are happy to give him the credit (remember, this is Asia – different rules apply).
Q: So what will happen next?
A: As I said, I am not a prophet. But what I know is this: Putin clearly has full control of Russia and Novorussia – what he says happens, he can deliver. Poroshenko has no control over anything, not even “his” own” ruling coalition. There is no real power in Banderastan right not, not even the local CIA station. For this simple reason I do not see how the ceasefire could hold. Then I don’t see much change in the military balance either. The NAF is far more capable than the JRF whose only advantage lies in the huge strategic depth of this territory. The JRF used to (past tense!) have a huge advantage in hardware and manpower, but even this is changing now. In terms of hardware, most of the best hardware they had is now either lost or in NAF hands. Yes, they still have huge reserves, but of old and terribly maintained equipment. As for manpower, the Junta clearly has more and more difficulties finding enough men to compensate for its huge losses. Just ask yourself a basic question: if you were Ukie, even a nationalist, would you want to join to JRF and go fight the NAF? Exactly. Yes, NATO has promised 15 million dollars. That would buy the Ukies, what, maybe 10 old and used T-72 or 3 T-80? This is a joke, really. But even if the US provides 150 millions in covert aid – this will not affect the balance, nevermind tipping it. As for the NAF, it is doing well and will probably get even more men and modern gear through the “voentorg”, but it cannot push too far. As one NAF commander said, “so far we have been liberators, but we don’t want to become occupiers“. The rule of thumb is simple: the further west the NAF goes, the less support it will get and the more it will expose itself to guerrilla warfare lead by a local insurgency. A far smarter strategy is to sit tight and watch the Ukies go after each other.
Q: Why do you think that will happen?
A: Because no matter what all this still holds true: the Ukraine was always an artificial country, Banderastan is even worse. There is no real power in control, even the Junta is “kinda” in power only. The country is economically dead dead dead. The economic crisis is only at it’s very early stages, and from now on it’s only going to get worse. Socially, the people are increasingly mad, disillusioned and feel lied to and, at the same time, less and less afraid to speak up. The Nazis are by far the most united and best armed group in the country, except for a theoretical “Ukrainian military” which, at least so far, has no leader and is therefore is not united (might this change in the future? Maybe). Basically, any person who took Social Sciences 101 in college will tell you that the Ukies will now turn on each other, God willing just with words and ideas, but violence is most likely. For the NAF it is far better to wait until Zaporozhie, Dnepropetrovsk, Kharkov or even Odessa turn into lawless cities which nobody really controls then to try to take them by force now. There is even a real possibility that the NAF might be seen as a liberator in these cities if chaos there reaches a “Mad Max” level.
Q: What if NATO sends in forces to prop-up the Junta?
A: LOL! First, I would strongly advise our AngloZionist “partners” (as they say in Russia) to first consult with their German, French and Polish colleagues to see if the latter have pleasant memories of being in charge of the Ukraine. Second, I would remind our AngloZionist partners that their move into Iraq and Afghanistan was supposed to be a love fest which would pay for itself. Third, I would also suggest to them that if they did not like Maliki, they might not like Iarosh either. Of course, sending a symbolic force to some maneuvers with whatever is left of the Ukie military is a good idea – it’s called “showing the flag” – but to try to do something meaningful by trying to use NATO military forces inside the Ukraine would be very, very, dangerous even if Russia does nothing at all to make things worse.
Q: What about the EU?
A: I think that it lost it’s willpower (not that it ever had much!). That ridiculous performance by Hollande has already come crushing down: turns out that his loud statement was an “individual opinion” with no legal meaning. Now, of course, the EU Kindergartgen (Poland, Lithuania, etc.) will keep on being what it is, a Kindergarten, but the adults (Germany, France, etc.) are showing signs of getting fed up. I don’t expect them to make a 180 overnight, no, but I just expect them to stop pro-actively making things worse. One of the possible signs of that might be a decrease in the role of the EU and an increase in the role of the OSCE.
Q: And what about Uncle Sam?
A: He is totally stuck in his only mode: demands, threats, condemnation, demands, threats, condemnation, etc. etc. etc. Normally “aggression” is part of that mantra, except that neither the US nor NATO have what it takes to militarily attack Russia. As for the AngloZionist ‘deep state’ it will continue to try subvert and economically cripple Russia, but as long as Putin is on the Kremlin I don’t see that strategy succeeding either.
Q: Sounds like you are optimistic.
A: If so, then only very very cautiously so. I don’t see a big drama, much less so a disaster, in what just happened, I think that Russia holds all the good cards in this game, and I see no danger for the people of Novorussia. To those who wanted to ride on a tank straight to the Maidan I can only say that even though I very much share their hopes and dreams, politics is the art of the possible and that smart politics are often slow and time-consuming politics. Maximalism is good for teenagers, not heads of state whose decision affect the lives of millions of people. Thus my temporary and provisional conclusion is this: so far, so good, things are better than they seemed to be only 2 months ago and I see no reason to expect a major reversal in the foreseeable future.
Q: What do you consider the biggest danger for Novorussia right now?
A: Political infighting. I don’t know if this is possible right now, but I would like to see the emergence of an undisputed Novorussian leader who would have the official and full support of Strelkov, Zakharchenko, Borodai, Mozgovoi, Kononov, Khodakovski, Tsarev, Bolotov, Gubarev and all the other political and military leaders. This has to be a truly Novorussian leader, not just a “Putin proconsul”, a person capable of negotiating with Putin for the interests of the people of Novorussia. I don’t mean to suggest that these negotiations cannot be friendly, if only because there can be no Novorussia against Russia, but this leader needs to represent the interests of the Novorussian people, and not the Russian people whose interests are (very well) represented by Putin himself. Right now, the main reason why Putin has so much power in Novorussia is primarily because there is still no real Novorussian political leadership. There is a Novorussian military leadership, and even they probably have to more or less do what the Russian military tells them to do. Far from being weakened by the emergence of such a truly independent and truly Novorussian leader, I think that the Russian-Novorussian alliance would be greatly strengthened by it. Novorussia should not, and cannot, be micro-managed from the Kremlin. In other words, what I hope is for a “Novorussian Nasrallah” who would be a loyal and faithful but sovereign and independent ally of Putin (like Nasrallah is for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei), but not a poodle like Blair or Hollande. Novorussia needs a spokesman and negotiator who could really have a mandate to speak for the people of Novorussia. Until that happens, I will always be worried for the future of the people of Novorussia.
Sorry if I forgot many good questions or points and please feel free to post more comments or questions, and I will try to answer those which a) do not misrepresent my views (no more strawman) or b) which I have not already answered ad nauseam elsewhere. To those of you who have – correctly – detected my irritation and/or frustration with certain comments I will simply say “guilty as charged” (- : told you: I am definitely not a nice guy :-). I won’t even bother justifying myself, either you can or you cannot imagine how frustrating it is for me to deal with, shall we say, some “personality types”. But either way there is nothing I could add to affect that. To the many kind, supportive, respectful, generous, educated, wise, interesting, funny, sophisticated, compassionate, intelligent, principled, honest, honorable and otherwise wonderful members of our community I want to express my most heartfelt and sincere gratitude: I simple don’t know how I could have made it through these terrible and tragic months without your help, support and kindness.
RFC: Now let’s get a good brainstorming session going about any and all the topics above.
Cheers and kind regards,
The Saker
The picture of the two soldiers annoys me greatly. It is not funny to present someone who is shocked and frightened to make a political point, especially if one takes into account that many “Ukies” are in fact conscripts which did not have much of a choice.
Apparently, the ceasefire was the best outcome Novorossia could hope for now, before the coming of winter.
According to militiaman Prokhorov – probably better informed than all of us taken together – NAF don’t have as many men as we were led to believe. He says 25k number is a myth. The real “army” is much smaller. Therefore, advance on Mariupol might have been a military deception aimed at shaking up Ukie command, not a bona fide offensive.
So no betrayal on Putin’s part here, just accepting the best deal possible and preparing for the arrival of the brutish weather in less than two months.
Unlike so many armchair generals who apparently also moonlight as telepaths and prophets, I cannot read Putin’s mind or predict the future.
Great line, it’s like those shape shifting Russian army battalions that are crossing the border yet there no pictures.
Well played and Putin has done the right thing for sure but we all know the bat-shit-crazy neo-cons never give up. In fact if I was the chocolate king I might be looking for a safe place to hide. The cookie princess and her friends my be installing the Nazis next.
Thanks for your time
Saker
Excellent! You nailed it.
Thanks for the Vineyard. An extraordinary international digital salon of ideas, information and analysis. It takes an uncommon man to lead it and you are appreciated. I learn so much from so many who contribute knowledge, links, opinions and wit.
@Crossvader said: The truth is that we have a lot of commenters here (mostly from the developing countries) who would love nothing more than Russia and the West destroy each other, and leave them in charge.
So any caution on Putin’s part is anathema to them. Most of the dark nonsense about Russia being destroyed any minute now – unless it nukes America first – comes from these characters (Mohamed, folks from China, India, whatever). Not everyone here is rooting for Novorossia out of goodness of their heart.
Shame on you for being such a racist!
Shame on your for misquoting me?
From day one, I have been saying that both Obama and Putin are cahoots to save the Empire.
People have been laughing at me, though now some of them are now coming to my point of view.
Shame on you.
From day one, I have been saying that wars are bad, and the innocents get destroyed.
Shame on you.
From day one, I have been saying, that I love the USA and would not like anything happen to it as innocents people in the USA will suffer.
Shame on you.
Quote me one of my post which are contradictory to the above.
Shame on you for being such a racist!
Mohamed.
@Julien B. said: Crossvader; How can you pretend to fight the fascist Ukies with this kind of racist speculation?
Dear Julien,
Thank you for bringing this to my attention. Please see my above reply to Crossvader in response to accusations on me.
You are absolutely correct that he/she is a racist! ~:)
Best regards,
Mohamed.
re: ceasefire: http://nationalinterest.org/feature/the-eternal-collapse-russia-11126
Thanks for the salient points you made about the Russian mindset which the Western either/or simpleton politicians just do not understand. Yes, the grey area differences between a liberator and an occupier; the folly of thinking “winner takes all” and the inability to see the large picture in the longer time frame plus a total disregard for the human factor. Perhaps Putin is playing for time as well as being a master strategist. He just re opened a naval base in the Arctic–obviously he has plan A, B. and C. The elephant in the room aspect of the latest NATO quick strike change is who makes the decision ( financed by every nation in Europe who will bear the consequences) of when to use it? Well, we all know the answer to that. The EU just keep bending over lower and lower.
Pictures and the annoyance factor. Actually the frontline punitive units and extermination squads were all made up of volunteer Nazis as nobody forced anyone to burn people alive in Odessa or massacre civilians. Ukraine did not have a conscription and those who did not want to answer the call simply did not. You could always escape. There are always ways out. If worst comes to absolutely the worst, you can choose prison over murdering your fellow citizens. So perhaps the Ukie army was poorly led but it lacked nothing in the ideology department, most definitely those guys went in to kill subhumans and Russians, so I would have far more pity of soldiers of Wehrmacht and even more compassion for his hapless allies, but not for today’s Ukrainian army – they knew or rather they know as the war of liberation is not over yet, what they were doing and why.
Obama Begs for More War
Did Putin Just Bring Peace to Ukraine?
http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/09/05/did-putin-just-bring-peace-to-ukraine/#.VAqBPLMXQAo.facebook
Report
Beware the Bear
While the West stands ready to sanction Moscow, many are more worried about what Putin has up his sleeve.
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/09/05/beware_the_bear_russia_eu_sanctions_obama_putin_merkel_ukraine
Did Major Countries Agree Not to Disclose Key Details in Downing of Malaysian Airlines Flight 17?
http://www.democracynow.org/2014/9/5/did_major_countries_agree_not_to
Thanks for your thoughts. They make sense – with all necessary care.
Great article! Though I only disagree with one thing !! I love Putin , best thing that could have happened to Russia! Putin bashers are just ignorant zombies spellbound on my corrupt US Governments lies
Long live Vladimir Putin !
Hello excellent write-up.. I think NovyRussia can be the beacon for the rest of Ukraine to find its path of existence.
I think this war, like all wars, has been a tragedy throughout, but the outcome might be beneficial overall.
If a good leader emerges within Novyrussia then perhaps he can become president of Ukraine, and rebuild the country and finally give it a position of strength.
Maiden undermined Ukraine, mostly due to the weasels that siezed upon it, who subsequently shunned their biggest trade partner in russia, and waged this abortive war in the east.
A good leader with a mandate from the public can leverage Ukraine’s assets (farmland, fossil reserves, industrial hands, highly educated workers) to achieve a beneficial financial terms from whomever it needs- EU, IMF, Russia, rather than continuing to be an improverished client of oligarchs.
I hope that the Ukrainian people can recognize this and put aside their differences
Saker, I am amazed at the depth of your knowledge and incisiveness of your analysis.
I believe, however, that you know that as long as the Empire is intact, it will continue to press against any individual, Putin, and any country, Russia, which dares resist it; and that the Empire counts resistance as merely being other than it.
Compromise with the Empire might well be a proper tactical maneuver, but never a proper strategic consideration.
The Empire was born in its American idiom, today the dominate idiom with the ascendency of the Republican Party in America and its war against that other America, the American South. In 1860, Southerners wrongly assumed that they could quietly leave through the instrument of secession. Men such as Robert E. Lee, Jefferson Davis and Richard Taylor, who knew the enemy well, knew and warned that the emerging Empire would never let us go. And it has not. It has managed to reduce the South to a cautious remnant, taking refuge in strongholds, redoubts and enclaves, ever fewer in number. We are not unlike the Old Narnians in C.S. Lewis’ Chronilces.
The Empire hates all that is other; all that is Christian; and all that dares to claim for itself a unique identity.
I do hope that Putin’s references to “our partners” as he attempts dialogue with the Beast is mere tactic because to be a “partner” with the Beast is to be its slave!
Ironic conclusion comming from someone pining for the American Antebellum South and its “peculiar institution”.
After the exchange of POW’s, won’t the magnitude of the Ukie losses become apparent to everyone? If the Junta will not publish the real data, then won’t the mothers and wives demand it by going into the streets to protest? Won’t the losses impact the October elections?
Aaaaah, what do I detect here, what’s that scent on the breeze?
A. Breath. Of. Fresh. Clear. Air.
;~)
Thank you, Saker. You’ve set so much straight. And hopefully it’ll be like opening a few windows in here and freshening the place up a bit: some of us here have needed it so very, very badly…
It’s always hard to see in a fog, but even more so with American eyes bc we’re not accustomed to seeing three feet ahead on a clear day.
Everything is far more complex than the way we’ve been deliberately taught to see it and the subtleties you’ve set forth really aren’t even that subtle for anyone but We The (quite thoroughly) Propagandized. Even when we’re convinced we’re rebelling against it.
And, for whatever it’s worth, I’m in complete agreement with everything you said, and still thinking Poroshenko will be outta there by the end of the month.
Anonymous 18:26
I heartily disagree with you. The point wasn’t political in the least, the point was the difference between a dedicated soldier and a captured wannabe. The captured Uke was, indeed, all over the ‘social media’ and was quite vociferous in his pronouncements. He very well did have a choice, two years max in prison or go kill your fellow countrymen, women and children.
What would you do if presented with that choice? He made his choice and suffered the consequences. If he has not been released before he was released today. The good thing is he will be a laughingstock for the rest of his life, richly deserved I would say.
How’s the EU doing with its unsold mountains of produce?
I very much enjoy your posts, but find it difficult to evaluate your information and opinions without knowing anything about you. If you are kind enough to respond to this post I would also appreciate links to previous posts that enlarge on your view of Putin’s worldview. From what you wrote a few days ago I get the impression that it bears out what I have been able to glean, mainly from watching RT.
My blog is at http://www.otherjonesii.blogspot.com
Came across this fairly insightful opinion piece today from a most unlikely source, Forbes magazine no less. “Three Reasons Why Putin Laughs At Impotent America”. http://www.forbes.com/sites/eamonnfingleton/2014/09/04/three-reasons-why-putin-laughs-at-impotent-u-s/
Anonymous 18:26,
That particular ork was in a kind of before-and-after video, first armed and rarin’ to go, then captured, then being treated for his leg wound, which I assumed was pretty serious… until they panned down (at which point I was really tempted to look away). Uh, let’s just be kind to the poor guy, who was in tears just about the moment he stopped swaggering, and just say his boo-boo really wasn’t too bad…
Actually, it looked to me like most people here did worse as a kid falling on the playground. But then, most bullies are cowards.
@Crossvader said: Julien (09.26); Please spare me your liberal bullcrap with some moral superiority overtones.
There is no racism in what I wrote (since there are no references in my post to skin color and the like), just realism.
You racist you mentioned me by name. Not only that, you lumped all the people in the so called, “developing countries” in one group.
The term “developing countries” is itself racism, which has been used for the last 70+ years.
BTW, some of those so called, “developing countries” have surpassed those “developed countries” in the last 70+ years.
It is the “developed countries” which are now becoming “Third World Countries”, such as Israel, EU, …. politically, morally, financially, culturally, …. they are bankrupt.
The ceasefire is finished. Red Cross convoy turned back because of shelling, Ukrop transporting AA guns with medical vehicles, taking positions, reinforcing, multiple other violations. NAF attacking.
Build the Underground Red Army of New Soviet Ukraine!
– from Nazi-occupied Amerika
as far as i can tell, ukraine nazis forces are using this ceasfire to regroup and send reinforcements…and about osce monitoring, they will be doing the same like they did in former yugoslavia against serbia: they will be some kind of fifth column inside novorusija, and they will be sending military and inteligence information to the ukronazis side…and if russia thinks sanction will getting looser after this, well they are deeply wrong…it will end up either as total russian capitulation, to the level worse than during yeltzin times, or russia should stand up firmly defending its national interests…i’m not talking about two sided putin, betraying, left novorusija alone etc, but i think soon russia will have no choice: surrender like serbia did, or stand up…if someone thinks how west will change its course, i think it is naive…i’m not advocating a whole out war, but i think soon russia will not have much choice but to act more firmly… it’s just reality…
Saker yr comments seem dated already because various Russian language reports indicate that the fsscists are on the attack in various places and that many NAF forces have resumed action.
Not a word from the fool or the traitor Zakharchenko
Auslander, I totally agree with your comment repudiating the post critical of Saker’s photo illustration. However, I would not focus on the Ukie having to “take responsibility for the consequences of his actions” (Camus’ definition of an existential man.) Rather on the apolitical point the Saker was making. Saker’s contention is that war is won based on the will to win. He offered the two photos to illustrate his point: the Russian lad while hurt badly remained willful if not defiant; the Ukie, though full of social media bravado, was psychologically crushed. Thus illustrating the analytical point that wars are won by inner strength as opposed to bluster and showmanship.
Thinking outside the box.
Possibly this team of negotiators, one for each of the warring factions, would yield better results. They would probably do it for free and could hammer out all of the details in 5 minutes. Binding arbitration.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=60QdHa4Pkhs
First time poster here.
As a Chinese-American, it is interesting to read the Saker’s statement that “in Asia talking to your enemy is normal, it is an integral part of warfare”. To those who may be feeling disappointed/betrayed/euphoric/optimistic/pessimistic depending on their particular views and the daily turn of events, maybe I’d like to suggest an “Asian” bit of reading: the treatise “On Protracted War” by Mao Tse-tung, and of course, his more well-know treatise (in the west) “On Guerrilla Warfare”. The texts of both can be easily found via a quick search, and neither is very long. In them, Mao gave his criticisms toward both the “defeatists” and those who “impetuously” expected a quick victory, and outlined his concrete views on fighting a numerically more powerful and better supported enemy. Personally, I am by no means a Maoist, but as nearly universally acknowledged, even in the west, his insights on this topic were very important, and were borne out by events. Although these treatises were written over 70 years ago, I believe they actually hold some relevance to the current situation, and may be of some help in “clearing the mind” when one is so easily inundated by contradictory information and opinions on a daily basis.
Another thing that may be interesting to some: among informed Chinese observers following this war online, a frequently-seen comment is that some of its aspects are reminiscent of the Chinese civil war, fought from 1946 to 1950. It is partly people seeing things from the perspective of what they know, but there are some similarities. There were a number of attempts at negotiation from the Communists, at least during the first half of the war. The Chinese civil war was fought for five years (technically, it still has not ended yet). Although the current war is on a much smaller scale, I do not see why anyone, on any side, should expect a quick resolution, or one battle that will somehow win everything. (As for the larger-scale geopolitical struggles and shifts taking place, Chinese people generally see them occurring on the time scale of decades.)
Excellent summary of the political situation in Ukraine Saker.
You bring up one very important point that I have not seen mentioned all that often and not in the western press at all. This has to do with Poroshenko’s political power. It has been clear from his first day in office that he really did not control his own government. It was obvious that he was unable, even if willing, to reign in the neo-Nazi forces that brought him to power. Following the fighting in Donbas, it doesn’t look like the central command of the UA controls the volunteer militia battalions.
I happen to be more optimistic about this ceasefire holding but that is not because I believe Poroshenko has that much control over his troops. Rather it is likely battle fatigue, not ideology, will deter the neo-Nazis from wanting to continue the war. There is nothing like devastating defeat to sap the fighting spirit. But in any case, these neo-Nazi forces are a real wild-card inside Ukraine. If they decide to turn on Poroshenko, it is hard to see where he will find a military that will protect him.
Winter is indeed coming and also elections in the US. Obama wants the crisis to die down to mitigate his foreign policy failures. It makes the world seem less like its going to hell. So maybe he can save a few Democrat Senate seats.
Disclosure: amongst many things I also am an astrologer, using it to blend into my practice of psychology. You may find the following discussion of Putin useful http://forum.astro.com/cgi/forum.cgi?num=1000036695
He is getting into some interesting plays at the moment, and his power is definitely in the ascendant.
Poroshenko definitely looks scared and, as you point out, with good reason. Some of his recent offensive bluster appeared to be an effort to make it look like he was in charge of the situation but, in reality, was being dragged along by events. (One wonders how his chocolates business is doing?) Yats seems to be the inside man for the AngloZionists now and it may be up to the FSB to protect Porky from an inevitable assassination or putsch by the Right Sector and Yats people. As for the $15-billion–as with much aid of this type it’s usually wheeled from one central bank office to another, or to the arms manufacturers. Poroshenko may never actually “see” any money. In closing, it looks like ISIS is being readied to fill the gap left by the Taliban in threatening Russia as well as in creating a “new Middle East” free of Assad and Hezbollah. I suspect Ukraine is in more of a holding action anyway while they attempt to accomplish this foolhardy strategy.
Not taking sides, tactically the casualties decide the moral of the army, and the operational options. Before mid August Pro Russian casualties were ten fold higher than Kiev’s forces. You underestimated the SWAT, and elite USA technology and tactics that were lethal … Donetsk Airport and all the way. To continue military operations you need to keep a balance in numbers and equipments, compared with the adversaries. If Ukraine creates a front line, and a Kursk spearhead, you have to be prepared with great number of equipments and manpower. This depends by Russian Elite that is divided and partly hijacked. There might be a Russian strategy, but for now it is Invisible.
Since your comments are so comprehensive and thorough that here isn’t much to add. Except to expand on the larger political picture of extreme Cold War tentions now between US and Russia. The Western lies about the Ukraine crisis have produced an indifferent and uninterested American public. It is only Putin’s recent comments “don’t mess with us” that have caught the attention of Americans from the Right and begun to wake up a few liberals and organizations on the Left.
What’s left of the anti-imperialist peace base in the US is caught up with Iraq and Palestine. Sadly, there is no real constituency for peace with Russia yet in the USA. Very very little.
Simultaneously there are other events independent of this conflict which will also force US administration attention and make the Ukraine conflict a more minor matter to the US eventually. Hopefully I say this.
The ISIS crisis is number one at moment. Putin’s aid is needed although Obama attempts to deal with this on his own at the present.But this could lead to political realignments as well.
Secondly a recession is enveloping Europe and the US. This could produce political changes like in France. And possibly elsewhere which in the long term will impact possibly fracturing the EU and NATO alliance. Hopefully, the Europeans are not as suicidally inclined as Americans. Yesterday Marine Le Pen polled one number higher than Hollande.
Lastly, although this might be of little inpact and concern to many, the State of California is headed for what could be a civilizational crisis in terms of a long term drought. It holds 36 million people. $2 billion has been lost in agriculture. Obama has been indifferent to this crisis but within the next year or two, this drought could explode upon the West Coast. While people believe the solution is desalinization, simultaneously the Pacific Ocean is being hit by a growing radioactive plume from Fukushima.
Between the economic crisis, the war crises, and the planetary global warming crises, we are looking at possible momentous changes throughout the world in the next few years. Set against these momentous changes upon which all nations will confront the ability to survive, how important do these specific questions become in the larger scheme of things? And will internal US domestic and global climate change impact the present War policy?
Agree with the most of Saker’s points, except few:
1. Why choose extremes like “going to Kiev”? With such brush-off the important fact is ignored – NAF could have taken more South-East towns (and with less bloodshed!) than they will be able to after Ukies break ceasefire (if it wont be in the next few days ofc).
NAF would had won the war if not ceasefire, now it was turned into just a lost big battle for Ukies (and war will likely resume, probably bloodier than it was before).
It doesnt matter if Saker’s quoted propagandists doesnt like a break, its a HUGE gift to Ukies from a military point of view, hence theories some sort of deal was made (likely primarily for Russia’s benefit, not Novorossia’s).
2. Saker has a man-crush on Putin :P The very idea that he couldnt sell-out anyone (I know, Saker has an allergy to this expression) out of goodness of his heart is 100% wrong, how many times Russia (and Putin) betrayed their alies? Many, many times, just ask Iran, Libya, etc. The only reason he havent done it to Syria or Novorossia (questionable) is because it was beneficial to stick with them for geopolitical reasons. If it would be more beneficial otherwise – bye bye.
Problem with Novorossia is, Russia doesnt really want it, they would prefer outcome as Saker mentioned, therefore Russia will help it as much as its beneficial to them geopolitically, and force Novorossia leadership to follow whatever path is better for Russia, NOT Novorossia itself. If they wont comply – replace leadership, rinse and repeat. Unfortunately, US arent the only ones playing puppet games.
Saker got this point right, unless Novorossia gets their own Nassralah, they will just a pawns in West-Russia gambit…
Yatsenyuk instructing the media before a briefing, says they are fighting against 1,100,000 Russian regular troops
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2UlwMZ2zZVc
Dear Saker,
Thank you for your wonderful insight. I don’t know how I could have made it through these stressful times without your vision of the events unfolding around us.
15 million € from our EU “partners”! Gosh, I thought, that is really a lot of money. Now that the Ukies would be flush with funds, the NAF would not stand a chance. Turns out this money wouldn’t be enough to “modernize Poroshenko’s kitchen”. That really tickled me insane.
10,000 RAF from NATO for the Ukies. I was once again assailed by that sinking feeling of impending disaster. Surely, the NAF wouldn’t be able to withstand this. With your insight it seems like chicken feed in comparison with the Russian juggernaut.
And lastly, I just loved the comment regarding the “Novorussian Nasrallah”. In my mind’s eye I could see a picture emerging of a “coalition of the unwilling” consisting of (Hitler)Putin, Assad (must go), Syed Nasrallah, Fidel Castro, Kirschner, Maduro, Correa, Morales, Jose Mujica, Rouhani, Lukashenko, Nazarbayev, Dilma Roussef and last but not least Xi Jinping….. Hope I am not missing someone important.
Stay blessed and May victory be ours!
@Saker
I love your [our] blog.
I have massive respect for Putin [and you :-)]
“I like to base my opinions on fact, not telepathy or prophetic visions.“
A very small reflection and zero intent to offend – it struck me that we are such a complex creature when I compare that to your Orthodox faith.
Dear Saker,
Thank you for your wonderful insight. I don’t know how I could have made it through these stressful times without your vision of the events unfolding around us.
15 million € from our EU “partners”! Gosh, I thought, that is really a lot of money. Now that the Ukies would be flush with funds, the NAF would not stand a chance. Turns out this money wouldn’t be enough to “modernize Poroshenko’s kitchen”. That really tickled me insane.
10,000 RAF from NATO for the Ukies. I was once again assailed by that sinking feeling of impending disaster. Surely, the NAF wouldn’t be able to withstand this. With your insight it seems like chicken feed in comparison with the Russian juggernaut.
And lastly, I just loved the comment regarding the “Novorussian Nasrallah”. In my mind’s eye I could see a picture emerging of a “coalition of the unwilling” consisting of (Hitler)Putin, Assad (must go), Syed Nasrallah, Fidel Castro, Kirschner, Maduro, Correa, Morales, Jose Mujica, Rouhani, Lukashenko, Nazarbayev, Dilma Roussef and last but not least Xi Jinping….. Hope I am not missing someone important.
Stay blessed and May victory be ours!
Saker, I endorse what Larchmonter says. Gratitude and great respect, for doing what the Western pressitutes/mediawhores/jimps fail completely to do: provide sound news and analysis, as is alleged to be the duty of their profession.
Jimp, btw, is a contraction of journalist-impersonator. No copyright; anyone who likes the word is welcome to use it as widely as possible :-)
Fighting has evidently started again in Mariupol.
I’m starting to have this much ====> <===== hope again ;-)
GET ’em, NAF.
Saker
listen to this El-murid video.
http://neuromir.tv/strelkov-sudba-romantikov/
They know what is going on
The important lesson is that the West backed down (almost instantly) to a credible threat. When Russian irregulars starting assisting their brethren in Novorossiya and turning the tide of battle.
When Putin tried personal diplomacy (as in the D-Day commemorations) they laughed right in his face.
This is the predictable behavior of psychopaths.
Putin should work towards a soft power victory along the Black Sea coast, and that will require investment, stability, and ZERO TAXATION. Once the typical Black Sea denizen sees that the standard of living in Sevastopol is 4 times the standard of living in Odessa, it will be game-set-match all the way to Bulgaria – without a shot fired.
By the way, where are the MH 17 tapes?
Excellent summary. (as usual)
Tell me do the Western media contact you for an in depth interview? Or ate they so caught up in their own Narrative that they hate to be exposed by informed discussion.
Saker, thanks for everything you wrote, I enjoyed your dialog style.
One thing I keep noticing that I haven’t seen much on is this concept from many of the NAF fighters and leaders, that the Slavs have been turned against each other (by trickery), and they’re destroying their best people on both sides.
I wonder to what extent Novorossia will be able to spread and encourage this thought. How much it can gain traction in the rest of Ukraine. This would be the total defeat of the empire and in fact all the rulers of the world – to throw off the illusory chains of being one faction against another.
I revel in the socialist vision that comes out of Donbas, the thought of ordinary working people globally united in solidarity against thieves and oppressors.
@Anonymous: it struck me that we are such a complex creature when I compare that to your Orthodox faith.
LOL! Well, no offense intended either, but that is only because of your lack of knowledge of what true Orthodoxy is. It’s not just neat singing, beards and fancy cupolas (that is called Uniatism), but it is 2000 years of immensely sophisticated and extremely complex thought. So complex, in fact, that even when translated into a modern language most people simply do not have the analytical and intellectual tools needed to correctly understand it. Even modern theologians, including the supposedly “great” ones simply don’t understand or, if they do, they understand it superficially or partially at best. Orthodox theology is mystical and ascetic, two aspects which, I would argue, simply have seized to exist in the West. It is also extremely complex. Try reading a treatise by Saint Gregory Palamas or Maximos the Confessor if you want to get a feel for it. I assure you that by the standards of your average traditional Orthodox monastic I am a total ignoramus, an intellectual midget and an illiterate grade-school level personality who, as the people of Nineveh, “cannot tell his right and from his left one”. I have been studying Orthodox theology for close to 30 years now and I assure you that I am utterly amazed at how complex it is and how little of it I managed to understand. Here are a few typical Orthodox texts you can browse through to see if they are as simple as had imagined:
http://www.prudencetrue.com/images/TheLadderofDivineAscent.pdf
http://www.stanselminstitute.org/files/MaximusConfessor.pdf
https://arcaneknowledgeofthedeep.files.wordpress.com/2014/02/triads.pdf
Cheers and kind regards,
The Saker
Strong leaders help – and Gubarev and [Strelkov] are almost ‘back’ – but I believe the key to the future is Soviet ideology. There is no going back to the capitalist, oligarchic model for Novorossia. NAF is a people’s liberation army. Many standing on the sidelines in Ukraine will join the cause. Soviet Ukraine cannot escape its legacy, and the reconciliation of the Red and the White ideologies (via the Black) is starting.
Sounds like there is serious fighting in Mariupol this evening.
This ceasefire is holding by the skin of its teeth.
One problem is that some of the Kiev forces seem to be little more than gangs now armed with heavy weapons who may not respond to instructions.
JohninMK
@Anonymous 20:09
Why choose extremes like “going to Kiev”?
That’s Mozgovoi’s language. Saker didn’t choose it out of thin air ;-)
Dear Saker
The NRF should have tried to at least carve a land route to Crimea and taken Melitopol and kherson if nothing else. This should be the priority in any future advances. This would have multiple positive effects
1. a land route for Crimea
2. another passage for the flow of men and material via Crimea
3. strategic depth in the south
4. cutting off the junta from the sea of azov
5. kherson and the fresh water sources in the area – vital for crimea
6. partial control over the mouth of the river Dnieper as it flows into the black sea
7. getting Odessa within reach
8. provide a buffer zone to Crimea in the north
The NAF would have to face the enemy only from the north. They would have the sea on the south and a route to withdraw to Crimea if things did not work out as planned.
A Promise to Oneself — by Igor Ivanovich Strelkov, 1991
Don’t wait for orders! Don’t delay
With reference to rest!
Forge forth! Through wind and piercing rain
And blizzard’s howling wail!
Abandon comfort’s cozy quilt —
You’re young, the way is yours!
You’ll have the time to rest your soul
When they lament your death!
Be brave, be fair, don’t heed the tongues
That ridicule and sneer.
And as a leader, take the brunt
Of duty on yourself!
If you have never been at fault,
Your life’s a wasted bloom —
You’ve shied away from picking up
The burdens of this world!
Whatever brings your lot to you —
Success or failure’s wrath,
Remember this – your measure’s worth
Will only judge our Lord!
Igor Ivanovich Strelkov, 1991
great !
Thx like this format. Ignore the hates, then u have more time to write^^.
Let me post all these URLs on yet a third thread bc, again, these not-quite-random headlines in the news strongly suggest this war is being fought (and likely won) on many fronts indeed:
http://en.itar-tass.com/:
Sevastopol authorities confiscate Ukrainian tycoon’s assets for debts; Norwegian PM says worsening relations with Russia to cause higher unemployment; Moscow, Beijing universities sign agreement on establishing a joint university; Roscosmos chief discusses plans for GLONASS stations in China; Expert says France will not be able to sell Mistrals to third country; Russian, Indian troops to be trained to fight under city conditions; Malaysia demands independent, open investigation into MH-17 crash; Russia to deliver Sukhoi superjets to Vietnam.
http://en.ria.ru/:
Moscow promises response if new EU sanctions are enacted; Russia, Vietnam take steps toward new free trade zone and currency settlements; Poroshenko refuses to name NATO countries offering Kiev military aid; Slovak PM calls on EU to postpone new sanctions against Russia; Deputy Russian FM states US position on Gaza complicates UNSC discussion on draft resolution; Indian Ambassador states “Our privileged partnership covers every area of human endeavor”.
http://rt.com/news/:
Malaysia ready to present MH-17 crash evidence in court; Russian navy sends flotilla to Arctic to start permanent service at military base; Marine Le Pen blames EU for the crisis in Ukraine; Morsi charged with leaking Egyptian state secrets to Qatar; Sierra Leone to enter lockdown as Ebola death toll tops 2000
Anonymous 20:03
Huh?
Data, please.
I’ve believed from the beginning that Putin’s actions were being tempered by China; that he was, in effect, on a leash. China has remained quiet on this affair until last week. What was said wasn’t much, but the fact that anything was said is revealing and all that could be read into it should be. The statement was a political shot across the bow and should be seen as such. It is also apparent that, with this statement, Putin now has more of a free hand.
~~~~~~~~~~~
Beijing said that the European Union’s plan to implement fresh economic penalties against Russia would complicate the crisis.
“A political solution is the only way out, sanctions do not help to solve the underlying problems in Ukraine,” said China’s foreign ministry spokesman Qin Gang.
“It may lead to new and more complicating factors.”
In a bid to remain neutral, China has remained relatively quiet over Russia’s behaviour in Ukraine since it annexed the peninsula of Crimea, neither endorsing nor condemning its ally’s actions.
Qin called on all parties to “avoid taking further actions that could lead to an escalation of tensions.”
Well I’ll sleep a bit better tonight. Glad to have a counter to Cassad’s pessimism.
Keeping a mental image of Putin as Corleone at the beginning of Godfather II, turrning the tables on the senator with an offer he can’t refuse, zero compromise.
I studied in Sevastopol last year, visited Odessa and Transnistria too, Glinnaya, the village of my ancestors. It felt very much like an unviable country, tense. Thought about creating a project, photoshoping national symbols, monuments, currency design that made a bit more sense and refered to the incredibly diverse history of that land. Ukie nationalists looked quite uncomfortable when I explained that the Canada they admire so much has two national languages and fuctions better for it.
Well, wonder how many are pining for that Eurasian Union association agreement. Hindsight’s 20/20.
Some people talk as if Novorussiya is a political reality while in fact it is just basically little more than a military organization. And this new political/concept idea does not have the means to feed nor clothe itelf nor the people of Nororussiya. All this must come from Russia. So it is nothing more than a dependency of Russia at the moment. How much bargaining power can a dependent have upon the parent?
Just asking.
Mr. Saker,
Once again, you excel with some vital Q&As –covered all the points. We honour you for your humility, clarity and honesty.
Aside from infighting which is to be expected in all the camps, my cat sniffed a few rats.
Btw, that said, I am in the camp for a fully independent Novorussia, a future member of the BRICS/Euroasia/SCO.
You observed that Mr. Putin’s wish is for “a united, independent, neutral, prosperous and friendly Ukraine, in other words – “regime change” in Kiev”
— Well, Mr. Putin can hope but, I’ll be a prophet here, – unless all neo-Nazis and oligarchs are guillotined — every last one of them, it ain’t gonna happen.
.Post-February 2014, let’s admit peace in Ukraine is dead. NeoNazis with all the hate are outed; NeoNazis have tasted power – that genie is out of a bottle that has a very long, thin-neck.
If a united Ukraine is not in the cards, then all the way to Odessa, restore the old Novorussia boundaries.
I support a pause that refreshes —→for NAF troops; it is critical to the outcome at Mariupol and the Donetsk airport b/c as sure as God made little green men and thankfully, women, { love this photo–you go girl } — the right sector boys (Kiev’s Ministry of the Interior) will be using this respite to bring in military aid, mercs – and those men being trained in Poland. [military aid is coming]
What Cease-fire?
the AngloZIO-Junta is not to be trusted
Here is Porky on BBC Hardtalk:
“Porky refuses to name the NATO countries that had offered Kiev to deliver precision-guided weapons”
talking cease-fire and admits to being offered/getting precision-guided weapons from NATO members
“MOSCOW, September 6 (RIA Novosti) – Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko refused to name the NATO countries that had offered Kiev to deliver precision-guided weapons in his interview with the BBC on Saturday.
When asked whether it was true that “some NATO members promised you precision-guided weapons,” Poroshenko said, “Yes,” confirming his earlier statement during the NATO summit in Wales.
“This is confidential information,” Poroshenko said when asked to name the countries.
“I will say that this is the first time Ukraine was offered truly modern weapons to protect its territory, and you should understand that this is not so that we can win this particular war, but rather for us to develop a European security system,” he said.
[.]
. . . .
“to develop a European security system” Just Wow! His lips moved…”not for this particular war..but Phase ll of it.
Because..Also, Porky said he is not confident about a long term Cease-fire !!!?!!! Hmmm
. . . . . .
There should have been an exchange of POWs today. Well, Kiev gave only “a pledge” it will be on Monday — not a guarantee.
Imvho, In my very humble opinion, the next 48 hrs is an eternity. Monday is the ddd.
1. Kiev makes good their pledge – hand over NAF boys.
2. Has the cease-fire held? –reported earlier there has been shelling.
3. More sanctions to include Gazprom and Gazprom bank? That’s like SWIFTing. Clueless.
Very smart, Mr. Putin’s team has been proactive; among the many moves –shielding funds out of sanctions reach.
= = = = =
You bet it’s not just $10 bln. Gotta love Mr. Putin’s leadership.
I’ll wait for Monday. Meanwhile, It is programmed. “Onward to Odessa.”
Mr. Saker, Thank you. With many blessings, enjoy your weekend with family and friends
AM
Rock on Saker.
You are a shining, sanity saving, beacon in this storm. I applaud your cautious optimism and brilliant analysis.
As for not being a nice guy. Man has an obligation to stand up for what he believes in.
Veiled accusations,spinning,misinterpretations,misreading and other meaning twisting techniques are not nice to begin with. Firm response is to be expected from a Man (be it a man or a woman) to those kind of attacks. And standing up and defending is not the same as going over the polite line and attacking someone in above mentioned manner.
@ VINEYARDSAKER 06 September, 2014 20:44
Very much appreciate your reply Saker.
However, I didn’t mean it as a LOL.
When I quoted what you said in the subject matter of the blogpost:
“…I like to base my opinions on fact, not telepathy or prophetic visions.“
I had then said:
“…we are such a complex creature when I compare that to your Orthodox faith.”
To clarify: I didn’t mean to infer that the Orthodox faith was not complex or, as you said:
“…but it is 2000 years of immensely sophisticated and extremely complex thought“
I was merely trying to point out that we all [or mostly] DO base [at least] some of our
opinions on “telepathy / prophetic visions”
That is what FAITH is about – and, in my opinion, the Orthodox faith has no greater claim to:
“…immensely sophisticated and extremely complex thought” than any other faith.
I agree with 90% of the “opinion” you express on this blog to the extent that I would [in some form] fight to support that opinion…but it does not mean that, before we die, the Orthodox
faith has any more certainty to fact than any other faith.
I’ll study the links you provided, thanks…
Speaking of logic, I still miss that underlying the explanation of the usefulness for both parts of a deal which will not hold.
“When your enemy tells you he’ll crush you in a matter of hours, but doesn’t, because he can’t, the offer of a ceasefire is only muttered to camouflage his utter despair.
Talk to him at the table, but kill him in the field.
Do not stop until the pile of bleached bones is high enough to be seen in Kiev.
Only then will the enemy understand the scope of his defeat and never cross the border again.” – Dan Tzu
perfect analysis Saker… the ceasefire is over, just like you said it would happen…
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-06/ceasefire-over-shelling-resumes-mariupol-and-donetsk
thank you very much for so wise words…
greetings!
MH17 interim report due out on Tuesday from the Dutch Safety Board.
JohninMK
@ Man from Atlanta,
Q: How’s the EU doing with its unsold mountains of produce?
R: It’s been loaded into the empty cargo holds of MH370, to be sent out over the Indian Ocean to bait the perps who brought down MH17…
How many 9/11s do they plan to cramp into 2 decades?
Haha this is hilarious!!
Mrs. America 2015 to be held in Crimea, Miss Ukrainian Diaspora pageant objects – RT
http://rt.com/news/185688-mrs-america-pageant-crimea-russia/
Dear Saker
As always an excellent post. Even in the most difficult moments of the past months was your blog with its information and analysis, always as a light in the darkness. Thank you for this.
Merkel said yesterday that the next sanctions depend on Russia. One point is: “Withdraw Russian troops, if they are there?” This is so crazy. They were sure there was a Russian invasion, and now it says “If”. And how can you prove the withdrawal of soldiers, who are not there?
The looming victory of New Russia reminds me of another paradigm shifting event: the Cuban Revolution of 1959.
The alliance of Communism and nationalism has since proven to be the one force that has managed to beat back the nihilism of America’s capitalist world system.
Hammer and Sickle versus $$$ = hope of humanity
Dear Saker,
“RFC” was a nice touch. This well thought out piece addresses a lot of the issues which are too complex to understand without a broad understanding of Russian and Ukraine affairs. I was a little surprised at the negative responses to news of the truce. After all, Novorussia can go back on the offensive whenever they wish. Ukraine forces are apparently already in violation of the truce and it is becoming increasingly difficult for Western voices to demonize the Russians. The full-spectrum propaganda machine looked ominous in March but it was made of inferior components and is losing the Western audience – there is a limit to the human capacity for suspension of disbelief.
My one most persistent question about the current situation (which you hinted at) is: Who does Novorussia negotiate with now on the Ukraine side? For example can they sideline Poroshenko altogether and reach out to whoever actually has control of Ukraine forces.
I’ll let my imagination run wild for a moment:
Dear Yarosh (or other name), with the ATO repealed you can consolidate control of Kiev and the west but you will abandon the East and South and support real referenda for historical Novorussia. Kolomoisky will be scapegoated. P.S. The parts of the ahistorical Ukraine will best be served by breaking all ties with the decadent meddlesome US and develop relations with EU as real partners -not vassals. The IMF will be shunned in favour of an inaugeral BRICS Development Bank.
Brian
Why should a truce be thought of as selling out Novorossia by allowing the ZPC/NWO nazis time to regroup and replenish? The Novorussian military has been fighting hard for over a month repelling a powerful nazi invasion force and have done an excellent job. They will surely have a place in history for their defense. But by now, the Novorussian forces must be exhausted. This time to regroup could help them even more than it could help the nazis. Overextenstion of a tired force usually leads to disaster, as Novorossia has no “strategic depth” it’s better to consolidate the gains.
People like Mozgovoi, Cassad and El Murid and others, who undoubtedly are doing what they think helps Novorossia best, may perhaps be a little too hot headed. One cant blame them, they see what the nazis are doing on a daily basis, and want it stopped now. Completely. An assault on Kiev would surely do that, so pushing west as fast as possible would be a natural view for them.
It’s what happens after, if the push is successful (not something that can be guaranteed, especially with exhausted troops), that has to be taken in to account, as well. Would people outside Novorossia see their forces in their regions as liberators, or occupiers?
Russia could have intervened in Novorossia months ago, as many Novorussians requested, and saved a lot of lives initially by booting the nazis from there. But that would be propagandised heavily by the ZPC/NWO and seen as Russians invading the Ukraine by probably most people in the rest of the country. That would have reinforced support for the junta nazis and probably given greatly enhanced local impetus to a ZPC/NWO terror insurgency in Novorossia (like in Chechnya, and the ZPC surely has increased insurgency as part of their strategy). The ZPC/NWO need to have Ukrainians thinking they are defending themselves from Russian aggression if their strategy against Russia through the Ukraine is to succeed, and to keep their puppet nazis in local power there.
Because Russia didn’t rush to save Novorossia and the Novorussians themselves saved the new country, people in the rest of the Ukraine are starting to see through the ZPC/NWO propaganda they are blitzed with, and understanding it’s not Russia vs them, but a civil war their own leaders forced upon the Ukrainian people in the east. Should Novorussian forces now take other Ukrainian regions, this Ukrainian waking up would likely be reversed again, and the falling ZPC/NWO control reinvigorated.
The other regions first need to show their willingness to throw off the ZPC/NWO occupier themselves. They need to feel they are the ones who are doing this, with help once they get started, of course. This is how it was done in Novorossia, and why it has worked so well to enable a much smaller and less equipped force utterly defeat the junta’s invaders.
By not forcing the issue upon the rest of the Ukraine, Russia, and now Novorossia, are removing the one main issue the ZPC propaganda relies upon to incite Ukrainian hatred. Without Russian/Novorossian “aggression”, the process of waking up in the Ukraine will continue and the ZPC/NWO proxies will continue to fall into disrepute.
From a long term perspective, I believe that depriving the ZPC fascists of their propaganda weapon and creating an environment in which the Ukrainians can solve their ZPC/NWO occupation problem themselves will work much better than forcing it from the outside. Quick fixes never work well and to remedy the ZPC/NWO problem, it will take long range thinking and long term actions.
вот так
@thesaker Great analysis as always. BTW I used to see your articles on Asia Times. What happened?
Watching Putin tie up US/NATO/EU in knots is a sublime awe inspiring experience. The man is beyond geopolitical grand mastery. By comparison Obama is just a patzer, who finds himself, once again, in zugzwang.
The west has enourmous resources, a trillion dollar military budget and global reach and dominance. But despite all this, it can be defeated. It can be defeated, because it is so poorly led and its leadership bench is no better than those currently playing. By contrast the east, particularly Russia, China, Iran, and Syria are superbly led. This is the difference that truly matters in today’s geopolitics.
As to selling out. Putin has to represent Russia first and foremost. Not Novorussia. Its clear that Russia’s best interest lies in a Ukrainian Federation, innoculated against US,NATO,EU, and NAZI control by the presence of Novorussia within it. This is what Putin has to go for. And he has played it brilliantly.
The ceasefire just needs to hold long enough for the Ukies to split apart and for the Novorussians to desire a settlement with Kiev so they can rebuild and go back to their lives. Massive Russian economic aid to Novorussia can be use to buy support for Putin’s position. And a few more ceasefires down the road, Putin will probably get what he wants.
On the other hand, is Novorussuia really viable? Faced with implacable Ukrainian hostility can it really be another Switzerland?
It is incredibly sad to see the picture of the Ukrainian soldier, who is so pained and distressed. I hate this thing called war. It rips the soul out of a man. It is true the right is on the side of the Separatists, whom I support whole heartily, but we are all human beings and it is impossible to ignore the despair of even an enemy.
Check this letter to Putin if you haven’t already:
http://dearputin.com/
It starts: “Please accept our apologies for the behavior of our Governments and Media. Western Nations, led by the United States, seem determined to start a war with Russia.”
There are relatively few verifiable facts available to us right now, and it looks to me like the various theories, ideologies, emotions, assumptions and opinions we’re all using are not doing much more than muddying the lens through which we’re taking it all in. I.e., we’re still very much in the fact-finding stage here and it would be far wiser to put all that other stuff on hold and just keep the lens as clear as possible. There’ll be plenty of time for more detailed analyses later, when there’s enough real data available and we have a better grasp of both the relevant parameters and various fine points therein. We can all guess to our heart’s contents but, uh, so what?
That to me is the real value of what Saker set down here.
Poroshenko may just want to rule over a peaceful country, federalized or not. To get there he would have to grant the wishes of those who would rather kill those who disagree with the whole Maidan hivemind thing. He wins if they end up weaker than the last brigade that now stands before Kiev. This second failed peace deal would absolve him from the accusations that he wanted soldiers to be killed. The place for those who want to be violent will once again be the front. The question is is this how Obama is also thinking? Why would Obama want to destroy the Ukraine military that allowed itself to be used in the service of US neocons if not because Obama wants the multipolar world that Romney just wrote that he would not tolerate if he were pres.
By the way, are you all calling US senate offices regularly to tell them that Americans do not want another Cold War?
Thank you for this informative and much needed analysis. This really fills a void and helps to understand the details which are so much distorted and covered up in the public media. Please keep up the good work.
Man From Atlan
How’s the EU doing with its unsold mountains of produce?
As a German I can tell you, we should eat it. Our Minister for agriculture Schmidt says: “Fruit and vegetables are for our feeding, but also for our economy of central importance. Those who regularly access to fruits and vegetables, do something good for themselves and their health. Currently you can give even a political signal through the enjoyment.”
That was in the last few days twice in the main news. But at the same time say Germany isn’t affected by the counter sanctions.
For me, I can say that I will of course never eat “Apples against Putin”.
The farmers should be compensated by the EU, as far as I know. They get money, so that they do not harvest or “sell” to the EU. The most important thing is that the prices remain stable (no cheap Anti-Putin-Apples). First, 180 million euros will be paid out, but that will not be enough, if they expect billion damages.