Caucasus without Russia will take a long fall into fiery abyss

In my July 1st SITREP, I outlined the major breaking points for Russia and its allies that the Western analysts recommend to attack.

There are two ways to decode these utterances, the first is to understand that when NATO accuses Russia of doing something it’s an admission that NATO’s actually doing it. For example, when they say that NATO would “endorse a defense capacity building package to help Moldova,” he meant that Moldova and Transnistria are to be a new front.

The second way to decode the Western think tanks’ list of “Russia’s breaking points,” is to understand that the West will be inserting pressure onto these particular points.

With the failed attempt of the June color revolution in Armenia, the US, NATO, and EU countries have opened a second South front in the war on Russia. It’s consistent with what Chatham House recommended in June.

Armenia is not just deciding the fate of Armenians, but also the entire Western civilization.

Everyone understands by now that any country whose government does not subordinate their interests to those of the US are likely to be targeted for regime change.

As always, for our readers who are interested in the situation in Ukraine rather than in the Hegemon’s war against Russia, you can skip the Caucasus SITREP and go directly to the Ukraine SITREP.

Thank you for your time.

Caucasus Without Russia: Yesterday, Today, Tomorrow
A major analysis by a Prominent Russian Commentator Rostislav Ishchenko
Thanks to J. Hawk and fortruss for translating.

Кавказ без России: вчера, сегодня, завтра Ростислав Ищенко, президент Центра системного анализа и прогнозирования. Here it’s in Russian

Ukraine, Armenia… next is Turkmenistan

1. How Turkmenistan Can Alter the Russia -West Standoff [Source]

2. June 26, 2015 -Here is the Stratfor analysis on Turkmenistan [Source]

“Turkmenistan’s strategic importance has increased in light of Russia’s weakened position and the West’s more assertive actions in challenging Moscow in its near abroad.”

“Turkmenistan’s decision to either remain aloof from Europe’s attempts to diversify from Russian energy or to commit officially to participating in the Southern Corridor could have significant consequences. Ashgabat is likely to hold its cards close to its chest as long as it can, but watching for any indications of which direction Turkmenistan is leaning will be tremendously important to gauging the fate of the broader conflict between Russia and the West.”

To “help” Turkmenistan to decide, the US and NATO are assembling an army of linguists and analysts, specializing in this area.

The US offers a regular set of propaganda that has not changed for the past 100 years: Stifled society, a pro-Russia president, cult of personality, human rights violation [Source]

In addition, the US, CIA and NATO are pounding a 100 year anniversary of 1916, when Kyrgyz nomads rose up against a World War I-era conscription. The US is preparing a huge uprising against Russians and the pro-Russian government in 2016. “While Kyrgyzstan largely remains pro-Russia, Rickleton writes, “1916 has become a political football in parliament,” featuring nationalists and those opposed to Kyrgyzstan joining the EEU, and Kyrgyz pushing back on the “perceptions it is again becoming a Russian colony.”

My analysis of the US government job market revealed that the specialists in this region, especially linguists, are in the most demand.

3. Russian expert mistakenly believes that Radicalization in Uzbekistan isn’t connected with Islamic state [Source]
Эксперт: Не связывайте радикализацию в Узбекистане с Исламским государством. По мнению политолога Рустама Бурнашева, система поддержки сил НАТО в Афганистане не требует создание военной базы в Узбекистане — но ситуация может измениться в среднесрочной перспективе.

“Political analyst Rustam Burnashev writes that the NATO will prevent ISIS from taking over Afghanistan and moving north to Uzbekistan. That’s why Uzbekistan doesn’t need a Russia’s military base, at least not yet. ”

This attitude is extremely wrong and very dangerous. It’s in NATO’s plans to infiltrate ISIS into Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Turkmenistan.

4. Askar Akaev, one of the inventors of mathematical modeling of the World Systems and an ex-president of Kirkizia. Askar Akaev: Kirgizia is drowning in nationalism, feudalism, and drug trafficking [Source]
Аскар Акаев: Киргизия погружается в национализм и феодализм с наркотрафиком. Интервью экс-президента Киргизии Аскара Акаева ИА REGNUM

5. Kyrgyzstan Government told to ensure ‘smooth sailing for Centerra Gold’s Kumtor mine [Source]
Kirgystan government gives go ahead to the Canadian company to operate a gold mine that accounts for 60% of the nation’s industrial output.

“Earlier this year, rumors circulated pointing to an imminent nationalization of the mine, which was later denied by Kyrgyzstan authorities.”

6. Azerbaijan is on the way to Euro-Atlantic integration [Source]
“Region needs a new architecture of security, that would coordinate all the Caucasus region countries, including Armenia, in one anti-Russia region” is a narration of local pro-NATO NGOs.

Azerbaijan is allied with Israel in its war against the Middle East. In NE Azerbaijan there are very large Jewish communities that have been funneling millions into groups within Georgia for years to undermine its Government and peoples natural relations with Russia.

7. Urgent appeal to Armenian authorities – Phillip Ekoz’yants [Source]
Thanks to our commentator Fedor on July 02, 2015 • at 2:06 am UTC

8. South Ossetian President: Riots in Armenia designed to ‘squeeze’ Russia out of Caucasus [Source]
June 29, – It is impossible to call the current events in Armenia, which is Russia’s friend and partner, incidental, South Ossetian President Leonid Tibilov says

9. Erevan Police ask remaining protesters to clear Bagramyan Avenue, or the Police will use its mandate [Source]
Полиция призывает разблокировать проспект Баграмяна, пообещав в противном случае воспользоваться своими полномочиями –

Erevan police reminded that by blocking the Prospect, protesters violating the constitutional rights of the citizens for peaceful enjoyment, and the use of the city’s facilities.

According to the police meeting, organized by the citizens expressing dissatisfaction with the increase in electricity prices was illegal and took place on June 19-22, 2015 without observance of procedure prescribed by the Republic of Armenia law “On freedom of Assembly.”

The police of the Republic of Armenia States that any manifestation of the right to free Assembly, regardless of the nature, the essence of the requirements of the participants or the relationship of the latter to the satisfaction of these requirements must conform to the Constitution of the Republic of Armenia, the law “On freedom meetings and other normative acts.”

“In this regard, the right to free Assembly cannot be absolute in a democratic society and may be limited in favor of the protection of public order and protection of freedoms, including normal traffic”, – said in a statement.

The police noted that any meeting should have a beginning and an end, and it should be temporary. “Furthermore, the right to free Assembly does not include the mandatory satisfaction of the requirements presented during the meeting,” said the police, adding that the organizers and participants of the meeting had sufficient time to submit their claims and presenting them to the society, to the competent authorities and officials.

In these circumstances, the statement syas, one of the main transport routes of the city of Yerevan, which provides a daily movement for thousands of people, including work, recreation, and the satisfaction of other essential needs, continues to be blocked indefinitely.

Moreover, on the roadway and sidewalks Baghramian Avenue are objects or other obstacles that impede the free the movement of public transport and pedestrians,” said the police

10. On July 2nd, in Erevan Armenia. About 200 protesters remain [Source]

11. Armenia sees abortive attempt at orange revolution – analysts [Source]

12. Armenia – Caucasus and Radical Islamism [Source]
Armenia: Final rehearsal before premier?
Expert opinion of a military analytic Alexey Zotiev

13. Andrey Areshev: Ukraine Nationalists fought with Azerbaijan against Armenia [Source]
Активисты Майдана воевали против армян Карабаха

Oligarch Petro Poroshenko, who financed coup in Kiev, stated, “If necessary, Ukraine definitely will support Azerbaijan.”

Thus, the Armenian community in the Northern Caucasus (and Central Asia) can be in the midst of the conflict, typologically close to the Syrian. After all, is not accidental on the Maidan, in addition to the flags of some countries of the South Caucasus, was spotted symbolism organizations, very active in the middle East. In some mass media there was mention of the fact that the leader of the militants “Right sector” Dmytro Yarosh together with Doku Umarov organized camp for terrorists in Zakatala region of Azerbaijan, intending to use it “graduates” including for operations against the NKR. And oligarch Petro Poroshenko, a business structure which largely funded the Kiev coup, stated bluntly: “if necessary Ukraine definitely will support Azerbaijan”.

14. Sink or Swim: Can the EAEU Survive for the Long Haul? [Source]

15. Why Armenia turned to Russia instead of the West [Source]
Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan: Armenians are suffering now from the rift between Russia and the West, he said, in three ways: Armenian exports to Russia, Russian investment in Armenia and remittances from Armenians working in Russia — which account for one-fifth of Armenia’s GDP — all are down. This hurts in a country of 3 million people that in 2013 ranked 152nd in the world in income per person.

But, he added, “had we not acceded to the Eurasian Union, we would have faced more painful problems.”

16. International Military Review – Syria, July 1, 2015 [Source]

17. Azerbaijani troops kill Armenian soldier: Armenian government [Source]

18. Afghan is a springboard for Islamists [Source]
Афганский трамплин исламистов

Military analysis of the situation in Afghanistan after the meeting of President Putin with the former president of Afghanistan Hamid Karzai.

“Russia concerned by the situation in Afghanistan, said Wednesday the President of Russia Vladimir Putin at a meeting with the former President of Afghanistan Hamid Karzai. “Now we see the processes that are very alarming. The Taliban is active, controls much of the territory of the country. But even more troubling is so-called “Islamic state” that is actively working in Afghanistan, and becoming more confident here”, said the Russian leader.”

“It’s not a secret that ISIS is not limiting itself with some Afghan provinces. They proclaim that their task is to go North, and to “liberate primordial Islamic territories.” Their plans are extensive. At first, they want to conquer bordering Afghanistan state, then Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, and then they aim at populated by Muslims territories of Russia.”

Ukraine

Kiev junta continues to do everything possible to keep the Ukraine NATO war going

1. Ukraine leader lays out vision of new war-time constitution [Source]

July 2 – “Kiev (AFP) – Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko on Wednesday proposed constitutional changes giving sweeping powers to the regions but critically failing to address demands of pro-Russian militants in the separatist east.

Poroshenko’s new vision of the ex-Soviet state’s basic law trims presidential controls over the provinces and extends to local towns and councils the right to oversee how their tax revenues are spent.

But it also refuses to add to the constitution the semi-autonomous status demanded by insurgency leaders who control an industrial edge of Ukraine that is home to 3.5 million people and accounts for a tenth of its economic output.

“The president is not ready to inscribe (the separatist regions’) separatist status in the basic law,” said International Centre for Policy Studies’ analyst Anatoliy Oktysyuk.”

2. Ukraine: Multiple protests converge at Kiev’s Verkhovna Rada [Source]

3. Ukraine: Protesters call on US to “get out of Ukraine” [Source]
Jul 1, 2015 Around 500 protesters gathered outside the US embassy in Kiev to hold an anti-war and anti-US rally, Wednesday.
Protesters call to stop the USA war on the territory of Ukraine.

Donetsk People Republic, Lugansk People Republic, Donbass, Novorossia

1. Lugansk People’s Republic does not depend on gas supplies from the territory of Ukraine [Source]
1st of July, 2015. Lugansk People’s Republic, Novorossiya.

Lugansk People’s Republic does not depend on gas supplies from the territory of Ukraine, the head of the LPR Igor Plotnitsky told correspondents of the Lugansk information Center today.

“We will be provided with gas regardless of whether Ukraine pays for Russian gas or not, whether it suspends Russian gas purchases or not. Believe me, there is no any problem for us. Ukraine has long demanded from the Russian Federation to cut off gas supplies to Donbass. Moreover, Ukraine doesn’t pay for our gas, although all the contracts stipulate it. Kiev authorities have decided to suspend Russian gas purchases, because they have no money to pay,” – Igor Plotnitsky said.

On February 19, 2015, Ukraine cut off gas supplies to the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics. On the same day, Russia started direct gas supplies to the Republics.

Today, Russian energy giant Gazprom has shut the valves for gas deliveries to Ukraine, as Ukraine has not made a prepayment for July. As a result, Ukraine’s Naftogaz made a decision to suspend purchases of natural gas from Russia’s Gazprom starting July 1.

2. 1st Slavyansk brigade “Vikings” combat footage [eng subs] [Source]

3. Rallies in memory of the residents of Staraya Kondrashovka killed during an air strike of the Ukrianian forces on July 2, 2014 [Source]
2nd of July, 2015. Lugansk People’s Republic, Novorossiya.

Rallies in memory of the residents of Staraya Kondrashovka killed during an air strike of the Ukrianian forces on July 2, 2014, took place in the Republic today. Citizens of Lugansk held a rally near a damaged residential house on Kotyubinskogo street.

“Last summer, this place was regularly shelled by the Ukrainian armed forces, so we’ve gathered here to show all the horrors caused by the war,” – Manolis Pilavov stressed.

According to him, Kiev authorities haven’t yet taken measures that are stipulated by the Minsk Accords.

“Both the Ukrainian public and the world community have to force the Kiev government to implement the Minsk agreements. Unfortunately, there won’t be peace in Donbass until it happens,” – Manolis Pilavov added.

4. Lugansk People Republic industries are oriented towards Russian and Asian markets [Source]

5. DPR Ministry of Transport has launched three new bus-routes that will connect the Republic with Moscow, Yalta and Taganrog [Source]
2nd of July, 2015. Donetsk People’s Republic, Novorossiya.

The DPR Ministry of Transport has launched three new bus-routes that will connect the Republic with Moscow, Yalta and Taganrog, the press service of the DPR Ministry of Transport told the Donetsk News Agency yesterday.

“Donetsk-Yalta and Donetsk-Moscow buses will depart daily from Yuzhniy bus station at 13:00 and 10:00, respectively. The buses go to the Russian border through Makeyevka, Khartsyzsk, Illovaysk, Uspenka. Donetsk-Yalta bus goes in the direction of Kerch and Feodosia, Donetsk-Moscow bus goes through Voronezh. Snezhnoye-Taganrog bus departs daily from a local bus station at 05:45, it goes through Marinovka and Russia’s Matveyev Kurgan,” – the DPR Ministry of Transport said.

6. Fights In Donbass 01.07.2015

Russia and Beyond

1. On Saturday, America will celebrate the 4th of July Independence Day. It’s not an independence from a space aliens invasion, as I have previously thought. Independence Day the movie is not a documentary, as I was told. Will Smith did not save the world by smoking a large cigar. However, everything else stays true to reality, since community theater productions is what the US does the best. Every year on the 4th of July the US stages a grand announcement of a summer blockbuster movie or a new Defense strategy to appoint enemies to its shrinking supremacy. This year its ISIS and Russia.

If Will Smith’s movie to be any proof, it’s easier to fight enemies you made up yourself. So, Washington paid for creation, training, arming, and media campaign of a mercenary community’s production called ISIS, which is a pet name for the irregular troops of NATO. To see images of the US senator John McCain and other Mossad agents posing with the known ISIS fighters, just search online.

The Head of the Russia’s military intelligence GRU Colonel-General Igor Sergun accused the US and its allies of creating the transnational “Islamist” terrorist network. You can read his speech here.

“Secret Pentagon report reveals West saw ISIS as strategic asset Anti-ISIS coalition knowingly sponsored violent extremists,” read about that here.

Whilst, the US didn’t create Russia, it was Russian Empire that supported the new world colonies and took part in the creation of the USA.

Russian presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov promised today to respond in kind, with a well phrased paper. [Source]

Will the US be named as an enemy of Russia #1?

Peskov suggested that it would be appropriate to wait until the a new edition of Russia’s national security document is finalized.

“Certainly, all threats to Russia’s national security are being taken into consideration, they are being analyzed, and relevant countermeasures will be envisioned,” he said.

2. Finland is turning from a pretend friend to an open foe [Source]
Historical note: OSCE, Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, was created by the initiative of the USSR in 1973. The headquarter of OSCE should be located in Russia, and not in Europe.

Finland Violated International Law By Banning Russian Official From Conflict Prevention Summit, Russian Foreign Ministry Says [Source]
After consulting the European Union, Finland opted to ban Russian parliamentary speaker Sergey Naryshkin from attending the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe’s parliamentary assembly in Helsinki.
Finnish ambassador in Moscow summoned to the Russian Foreign Ministry [Source]

July 01 – The Russian side regards as unacceptable the Finnish authorities decision to deny entry visas to Russian State Duma Speaker Sergey Naryshkin and another five members of the Russian delegation.

3. Russia ready to return over 20 Ukrainian ships based in Crimea to Ukraine [Source]
According to a source at the General Staff of the Russian Navy, the Ukrainian ships are deployed at the Russian Black Sea Fleet’s home bases, fully isolated and not used in everyday activities

4. Belarus feels threatened by NATO buildup on its borders in Ukraine, Poland, and in Lithuania [Source]
July 2 – “We must be prepared to repel any external aggression, gunpowder must always be kept dry,” President Lukashenko added.
Lukashenko also said that the Eurasian Economic Union’s large-scale project is the ability to overcome crises and find new paths for development.

The Eurasian Economic Union is an economic union which is comprised of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan.

5. Ousted from the Russian Senate, Leonid Lebedev risks sinking his billion-dollar US lawsuit, and more [Source]
“Under anti-corruption measures introduced by the Kremlin in 2013, high state officials are prohibited from holding offshore assets; they are also obliged to report the sources and amounts of their income.

The Lebedev case is the first to test whether the Kremlin intends to prosecute concealment offences by state officials, and whether they can escape the long arm of the law by resigning their posts as soon as their game is up.”

“A request by the Russian authorities to MOKAS, their Cyprus counterpart for money-laundering investigations of Politically Exposed Persons (PEPSs), would produce definitive evidence – and put Lebedev’s London and New York claims in a light he cannot have intended. MOKAS says if Moscow asks, it’s happy to oblige.”

6. Another good news from Russia is a reported decline in political influence of Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich [Source]

” Arkady Dvorkovich is a Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev’s protégé. Magomedov, sources in the maritime sector say confidentially, is unable to raise financing for his Summa group in the US or Europe, and Dvorkovich and Medvedev have been unable to help him with money from the Russian state banks. Dvorkovich is now thinking of a job outside the government, the sources add. ”

“Kommersant also reported that government and state corporate support will no longer be considered for any Russian project in the Netherlands, or in other European states imposing sanctions on Russia. That includes countries in which there is a risk of court injunctions or asset arrests as part of the Yukos litigation campaign.”

I reported about Arkady Dvorkovich here  in relation to HSE – Higher School of Economics in connection to the Washington and Pentagon funded neo-con mob that was gathering in Moscow at exact time for the St-Petersburg Economic Forum.

In the most amazing Revers de Fortune, Dvorkovich and his mob of the pro-West oligarchs occupied the key positions in westward oil and gas, diamonds, and other natural resources transfer from Russia.

After the West imposed sanctions to punish Russians and to oust Putin; Russia redirected most of the transfers from Europe to eastward and southern directions, across the Sea of Japan and the Caspian Sea, for port loading and tanker shipment of oil, bypassing Europe. To add insult to injury, Russia canceled all of its support to business projects with NATO/EU countries, making those powerful pipe-sitters with their American and European deputies obsolete. If this is not a material for an ancient Greek comedy, I don’t know what is.

7. It’s a Western cultural paradigm that commerce is a continuation of war [Source]
Today, Wednesday July 2, 2015 at 1500 CEST, WikiLeaks continues publishing documents from the secret ongoing TiSA (Trade in Services Agreement) negotiations, with four Chapters in key areas ahead of the next negotiating round on Monday: Electronic Commerce, Telecommunications Services, Financial Services and Maritime Transport Services.