It is still a little early to call this day over, especially considering the time it takes for the information to seep out of the eastern Ukraine and make it to the Internet. Furthermore, we have to be extremely cautious with the news not only because truth is the first casualty of war or because all the information sources have a vested interest in getting out the “right” information “correctly” presented, but because today, just as yesterday, the main characteristic of the situation in the Ukraine is complete, total, chaos.
With these caveats in mind, we can still say the following with a strong degree of certitude:
Something really amazing happened today in Kramatorsk. It appears that a column of Ukrainian paratroopers entered the city unopposed, some of them put Russian flags on their Infantry Fighting Vehicles (IFV), others Saint George ribbons. When they made it to the city center they were greeted by the civilians who brought them flowers and food. Then, some of them apparently left, possibly on their IFV though that is still unclear to me. It appears certain that 6 IFV of the BMD-2 types (Airborne IFV) were given to the local self-defense forces. It is unclear to me what happened to the crews. Some reports say that they purchased civilians clothes and returned to their base, but that makes absolutely no sense. Strictly speaking, handing over their IFV to “terrorists” in a “battle situation” could get them summarily executed on the spot. At the very least this should land them in front of a court martial. So my guess is that the crews either deserted completely, or stayed around and join the locals. What is certain is that the local defense forces now have 6 armored vehicles armed with the formidable 30mm 2A42 multi-purpose auto-cannon which can tear into pretty much anything short of a main battle tank. The BMD-2 is also *ideal* for urban combat: relatively compact, well armored, highly mobile and with that formidable gun (which can shoot armor piercing rounds), it is just about the best kind of vehicle to use inside a city (it also has a machine gun and a guided anti-tank weapon).
By the way, these units came from the same 24th Airborne Brigade I mentioned yesterday, probably one of the few more or less well trained units in the entire Ukrainian military.
Another less noticed event was an attempt by unidentified paramilitaries to attack or break through one of the checkpoints near the city. The attack failed, the number of casualties is still undetermined. The locals blame the Right Sector thugs for this one.
All the other info coming out of the eastern Ukraine are just rumors and it makes no sense to repeat it here, much less so use it as a basis for making conclusions.
What appears to be pretty certain is that nothing major happened today, most definitely no big combat operations. If yesterday was chaos with local violence, today seems to be only chaos, which is not a bad sign I suppose.
Finally, this “just in” from RT. Unverified, by consistent with what we know:
Reports from Slavyansk say that the army troops sent to the eastern Ukrainian city for an “anti-terrorist operation” are leaving en masse. Some troops are openly voicing support for the eastern Ukrainians, while others are speaking out against a war. According to Interfax, citing local self-defense activists, some 300 Ukrainian troops agreed to lay down their weapons and “go home” following negotiations in Slavyansk.
If that is so, this might be the beginning of the end for the “anti-terrorist” operation. Why? Because enough of the military switches sides, or at least lays down arms or refuses to obey, no other force can challenge it. The Paratroopers can easily make minced meat out of any police, SWAT, SBU or even regular military unit. They could even hold their ground against an armored attack (holding ground is what these paratroopers are trained for). If the 24th Airborne Brigade switches sides (which has not happened yet!!), then that is the end of the entire “anti-terrorist” operation. But this is a big “if” and we should not assume something about the entire brigade just on the basis of what one single company did.
Stay tuned, I will try to keep you posted,
The Saker
The problem with the transfer of military hardware (IFVs) lies in the fact that the heart of all military operations lies in the logistic chain.
Once the ready use ammunition is consumed you need resupply. Same for gas, treads and other spares.
Judging from video of IFV crews pulling donuts on the streets of Donetsk(??) the wear and tear will quickly incapacitate the IFVs.
If the airborne troops retain their small arms they will remain a formidible force but airborne troops are also dependent on quick resupply within a couple of days of making first contact.
I suspect we see a change in NATO spin from “Russian agression” which needs to be countered to “failed state” which requires occupation troops to maintain order and uphold the “legitimate” rule of the state.
The biggest news is out of fence-sitting cities like Odessa, which appear to now be off the fence.
Once the average person concludes that the IMF-regime in Kiev can’t hurt them, they will accelerate the break away.
The puppet masters in Kiev will do everything in their power to have a sham election in May. The next phase will be civil war within West Ukraine, not between East and West.
http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/ukraine-panzer-der-ukrainischen-armee-wechseln-seiten-a-964690.html Mittwoch, 16.04.2014 – 12:09 Uhr
http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/ukraine-krise-nato-verstaerkt-militaerische-praesenz-im-osten-europas-a-964783.html Mittwoch, 16.04.2014 – 13:15 Uhr
http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/ukraine-kiews-armee-trifft-auf-widerstand-in-der-ostukraine-a-964781.html Mittwoch, 16.04.2014 – 16:39 Uhr
Dear Saker,
Der Spiegel had the news by midday and nearly all commentators were really happy (meaning that the censorship was lazy?)! The Spiegel is very pro Merkel and Merkel is on holiday – until now I have not heard from her. She lets the Social Democrats ruin themselves, waiting … However, I am sure that Washington will soon call her … And of course, an hour later came the news about the NATO. DIE ZEIT and FAZ had to acknowledge the news grudgingly – still spilling out their propaganda.
I really, really hope that this will be the end of a civil war – and the end of the Empire. Who would have thought that the CIA could be brought to heel so rapidly!
Greetings from Germany
Angelika
Hope it is true, it would be a sign to even citizens in Western Europe that when your government blatently doesnt act in your name that there is a way to show them how democracy works and that you can stop them! No Ukranian needs to die because of some war mongers’ agenda! What is wrong with talking, the skill our politicians are supposedly so good at. If they want to die, let them send their own brothers and sons!
To hell with war!
RVL
Mixed news from Europe, but I was just laughing that the army sent from Kiev to suppress the pro -Russian separatist decided to join the pro-Russian crowd. The European politicians are up side down they don’t know what to do
http://www.ctvnews.ca/world/combat-vehicles-fly-russian-flags-in-east-ukraine-1.1778125
Thx Saker. Good post.
i signed the petition yesterday and i’d like one of those “saint george ribbons”,oh well…how could nato intervene to help a failed state restore “law’n’order”(i.e. mass murder)?? it’ll take u.s.troops…only one’s capable of indiscriminate slaughter…butcher obummer!
Thanks
To Anon at 11:12
I think the Russians would have no problem with sending the amo that’s needed just like Syria. There is no reason for Russia to involve itself if this. I’m sure troops not only are against this but now if they change side they will be feed and paid unlike the falling Ukraine. The faster this happens the better for all. It’s about the only thing to stop Amerika and it proxies. They would have to put boots on the ground. I have doubt they are that stupid but because it’s not them dying who knows.
One thing I did not see mentioned much in the recent news is where the loyalties of the local police and armed force lie. Do they support the local protesters, the Kiev force, or decide to just stand aside? They can well be the force tipping the balance in the upcoming conflict.
The thought occurred to me last night but I’m still almost afraid to voice it: “What if they held a war and no one came?” All it really takes is a recognition of our common humanity…
I have said as much elsewhere, but do those troops actually have snti-tank weapons or MANPADS? If they do, the task of the junta troops will be much more difficult: they will no longer be able to simply bomb or storm insurgents with impunity.
This is why I suspect that the Junta troops don’t have such weapons, although they would sorely need them if they ever actually had to fight the Russian Army.
a
Putin’s government has been a step ahead of Brennan’s CIA at every juncture. All that is left to him is a completely synthetic casus belli. It’s going to be one hell of a lot better than the Gulf of Tonkin.
To Saker from Tom Garrett: The latest news report in Russia Today confirms events in Slavyansk similar to those in Kramatorsk, with the “invading” troops handing over half a dozen APCs to the militia and fraternizing with the townspeople (one photo shows one showing a young boy how to sight a rifle while another flirts with a teenage girl.)
I’ve predicted throughout that boys from eastern oblasts wouldn’t shoot down eastern civilians. RT reports that most of the 60 young men who joined the militia in Kramatorsk are from Dnipropetrovsk. It’s surprising that Kiev would send them. But if boys from the east won’t kill civilians, western thugs and American mercenaries will. This thing is far, far from over. I am especially worried about Odessa where the Kiev gang and their bosses will make a determined fight to hang on to an outlet to the sea and to prevent the infection spreading south.
The real game changer will arrive if and when full garrisons “go over.” When one goes others are sure to follow. Viva Donetsaka Libre!
Tom Garrett
@EVERYBODY
Few points about the Ukrainian Paratroopers. It is true that they cannot hold a long battle for long, but we are not talking about a regular “hold the airport or bridge until we reinforce you”. They definitely will have the autonomy to be a major pain in the a** for any attacking force. For example, they have 180 armor piercing rounds each. That is 180 too much from the attackers point of view :-) Seriously, 10 rounds like this will do a lot of damage to your APC.
MANPADs? Not sure about the Ukrainians today, but I would strongly suspect that they have Iglas which have a long shelf live so they could have survived the economic crisis and lack of financing by the corrupt governments.
But no amount of weapons will help the Ukrainian military of the Russian military moves in. The Russians stand on top of 15 years of more or less halfway decent reforms and a fews years of excellent reforms. They have combat experience, modern gear, mostly a pro-military. The Russian Spetsnaz, Airborne and Naval Infantry forces are already formidable, the Russian Air Force has enough modern fighters and enough pilots with lots of flying hours, and even the regular Russian brigades and divisions are all battle ready. But the very good news is that the Ukrainians (I mean the military, not the freaks in Kiev) know that and that they have no desire to meet a rapid death in defense of a Fascist regime. So even those who would not necessarily object to putting down a civilian revolt will think long and hard about the risk of setting off a Russian offensive. Because if the Russian military goes on the attack to protect the Russian-speaking population from a bloodbath it is going to be very swift and very brutal attack which will kill *a lot* of Ukrainian military personnel. Nobody wants that, not the Ukrainians, not the Russians. And the Ukrainians also know that those Ukrainians military in Crimea who agreed to join the Russian forces got a 500% increase in their pay (since the Ukrainian pay is terrible, and the Russian pay pretty good). So the options are:
1) Be a scumbag, kill your own people, risk being lynched by an enraged mob, and even if you make it, you will remain poor at best, and when the Fascist regime in Kiev collapses there might be hell to pay for what you did. At worst, you die as soon as the Polite Armed Men in Green show up.
2) Be a hero. Get hugged by the locals, get good food, plenty of flowers, remain safely tucked away in the city center, be warmly greeted by the Russian military, get a good pension, a house and have your salary go up by 500%.
Which would you chose?
Exactly.
Same here.
Hopefully more Ukrainian soldiers will see the options in this way.
Cheers,
The Saker
“Yats” keeps using the “T” word!
This is good, let them alienate the whole world!
From The Guardian:
Acting Ukrainian prime minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk accused Russia of orchestrating the unrest. “Russia has got a new export now, apart from oil and gas: Russia is now exporting terrorism to Ukraine,” Yatsenyuk was quoted as telling a cabinet meeting.
To “The Saker”:
The following news from Interfax just in:
16 April 2014, 14:28
” ***Russian flags on the Ukrainian BTRs in Kramatorsk explained as military cunning***
As stated in Kiev, in such a way the Ukrainian military were penetrating the territory controlled by supporters of federalization”
The article adds however, that there is no independent confirmation of this yet, meaning, could be a deliberate misinformation by Kiev.
http://www.interfax.ru/world/372002
Do you perhaps know anything more about this?
All, repeat all, about regime change in Russia. I.e. get Putin. From the Guardian:
“The west must also accept that Russia has legitimate security interests, and rule out Nato membership for Ukraine for ever. In the long run a global rethink of security is needed, to guarantee the west’s security together with Russia’s, not in opposition to it – but that cannot happen until after Putin leaves the scene.”
Aside from its insistence on Putin’s departure, which is the party line, the only party line, this op-ed piece in the Guardian is blatantly psychotic. Frenzied hysteria. Again and again, ask yourself why. Why.
The only even remote interest any citizen of Western Europe has in Ukraine is the safe passage of natural gas to heat his or her home. That’s it. Destabilizing Ukraine’s elected government achieves that? Why not destabilize the sadistic freaks running Saudi Arabia? Were they elected?
No the frenzy is all about Putin. And I guess ultimately one has to examine what it is that he has done to rile up the “West” so badly.
I’ve become a little confused because I saw one or two reports early this morning that claimed Kiev troops had been false-flagged in order to supposedly penetrate rebel-held areas.
This may be true or it may be error or it may be Kiev disinfo, but if the last, it doesn’t seem to me to be such a good stratagem, because local security in the rebel-held areas would in any case be continually checking and rechecking every uniformed individual, at least until he surrendered his weapons, so the fear of supposed false flags wouldn’t make this local security issue any more arduous or divisive than it would have had to be anyway.
But my question is: do you have any reports of either individual, still-loyal Kiev troops wearing St George’s ribbons, or still-loyal Kiev vehicles flying Russian flags, with intent to deceive?
Anonymous 12:44
It’s important to realize when reading MSM propaganda that its purpose is not necessarily to reflect the real thinking of our great leaders (assuming they actually do, you know, think). What they’re really doing is trying to manufacture public support and seem to have decided that we are most easily manipulated by fear of a boogeyman. Bin Laden worked pretty well, Saddam and Khadafi likewise, but Assad just didn’t catch on. A lot of Americans are caught in a time-warp and most don’t know the difference between the USSR and RF anyhow, so Putin can be associated with the Evil Empire rather easily here.
Of course the UA Army, such as it is, has anti-tank weapons and MANPADS. The question is, were these issued to the troops that just switched sides?
If they were, now those weapons are in the hands of the people. Sending tanks and aircraft to bully ones way back into the East will no longer be so easy.
If not, the Ukrainian troops will be even more at the mercy of any real soldiers that may show up. Like, say, the Russian kind.
Saker,
Please consider switching to “zulu” date/time throughout your blog. It is unambiguous for everyone in the world (or it should be). At the very least, avoid confusing EDT with EST. Clearly identifying which time zone is being used (e.g.: -4) would be an alternative, albeit a more clumsy one for some.
This is a small point at the moment, but might help anyone doing research in the future.
The issue I raised a couple of comments back in this thread, actually WAS Kiev disinfo. RT’s story about the Kramatorsk surrender says: “Some of the APCs were filmed flying Russian flags in support of the locals. Kiev eventually confirmed that six APCs were taken away in Kromatorsk but claimed that they were “captured by the extremists.” Earlier, coup-imposed Kiev officials dismissed the news as “fake” and even claimed that by raising Russian flags the troops “infiltrated” the areas “controlled by Russian Army units and separatists.” That’s practically word-for-word what I had been trying to pin down.
Dmitri Orlov’s predictions panning out…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yCO5nZgvtbY
The absolute silliness and ignorance of US policy toward Ukraine has to be underlined.
Ukraine is literally breaking apart, and the ignoramuses in the White House and State Department had zero idea that this would happen post-putsch.
This is another huge strategic blunder by the entire foreign policy establishment in Washington.
Even US capital is highly concerned about sanctions and conflict with Russia, but the US state seems completely undisciplined and void of any strategic capacity, let alone honest appraisal of the situation.
Literally everything that the US is doing is making things objectively worse or more unstable in the Ukraine, so much so that the country is unlikely to exist in the future.
Of course, the whole situation is highly dangerous in terms of US-Russian confrontation. But the downright folly of US policies is breathtaking to watch. Every time the US ignores or rejects Russia’s very reasonable proposals and then proceeds to up the ante, the whole situation is exacerbated and the results tip towards Russia’s favor (domestically and regionally).
Pure hypocrisy, ignorant opportunism, transparent meddling, political alliances with reactionaries, and consistently wrong policies — this is the stuff of US “leadership” today.
Clearly, these are signs of a relative — and to some extent, an absolute — decline of US power and abilities.
And, it is interesting to consider that Obama — whose core mission was to extend the empire after Bush II — couldn’t reverse these tendencies. Just consider his record: a failed surge in Afghanistan, a failure to keep bases and residual troops in Iraq, a failure to oust Assad, a lot of new angry people in Pakistan, Yemen and Somalia regarding drone strikes, a failure to impose a deal on the Palestinians, a failure to secure Libya post-intervention, and now a reckless failure in Ukraine.
With this in mind, I believe we are witnessing a historic shift in power relations in the global system.
@Anonymous: Please consider switching to “zulu” date/time throughout your blog
You are absolutely correct. I will do that ASAP and post a warning about it.
Thanks for the solid common sense and good advice!
The Saker
I was reminded of the speech Charlie Chaplin gave in “The Great Dictator” when the soldiers were hopping off their IFV’s. Today is Charlie’s birthday. Happy birthday!
Ukrainian Defense Ministry initially categorically denied the information about the seizure of the vehicles, insisting that the Donetsk region move Russian combat vehicles, UNIAN reported quoting the press service of the Ministry. Acting Head of Press and Information of the Ministry of Defense Bogdan Senik explained that all the photos and videos allegedly confirming the capture , are ” a fake .” He argued that the board numbers on the machines jammed , and the survey was conducted elsewhere.
MP from the faction BLOW/UDAR Sergei Kunitsyn, referring to acting Defense Minister Mikhail Kovalev , also denied the appearance Kramatorsk and Slavyansk armored vehicles under the Russian flag . ” The Minister of Defense has not confirmed this information,” – he told reporters on the sidelines of the meeting of parliament , wrote ” Interfax”. Kunitsyn also assured that Ukrainian troops are not siding with the protesters.
But later the Ukrainian Defense Ministry still recognized surrender armored militia. “Russian subversive and terrorist groups and local extremists seized several samples of armored vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine “, – the ” Liga.net ” application department.
Link with the vids how it all happened. It’s in Russian.
http://www.newsru.com/world/16apr2014/kram.html
ivedMsu respecting…even if one were not persuaded that RF had certain rights or interests in Ukraine… and if one was also convinced that having Ukraine as part of the ZUSA-ZATO-EU was good strategy… it’s still the most cringe-worthy execution of diplomacy/physops/policy that I’ve EVER witnessed. As an American — one is sensitive to criticisms of cowboy-idiot-savants. One only wishes that what we are seeing were more “cowboy swagger” and less “evil mendacity” — same kind of mundane and thoughtless hubris one sees in cafe’s throughout the upper west side… This Easter Sunday I’ll be praying for ALL God’s children in the Ukraine… and give thanks that Russia still produces diplomats and strategists that even cowboys can cheer…
Time check:
This comment was submitted at approximately:
2014-04-16/19:00Z
OT, but what’s with all the smoke from these military equipment. Poor injector technology/service or crap fuel?
Another member of the Anonymii (have I just coined a fake latin word?) said the patsies posing as politicians and diplomats in D.C. are flogging silly and ignorant policies toward Ukraine. I happen to think desperation describes the situation better. I think they placed a bet they couldn’t afford to lose. Now the question is, whose money were they betting and why?
Obviously, they could not wait a few months to get rid of Yanukovitch, which implies serious desperation. Replacing him with a bankster having the usual criminal associations says it is about saving the disfunctional plutocratic banking system. It was all going so well, except for having to break out the snipers and then the nazi faction exposed a previously unsuspected penchant for video recording their exploits and uploading to youtube. Then the unthinkable happened, the nation began to fall apart. That nullifies the gamble because it, IMHO, has to be about keeping Ukraine from defaulting on its debt and making sure the new debt is mostly owed to imperial banks. They being so very good at playing the shell and pea game. It can’t work if noboby knows how much territory an entity called Ukraine is going to control, if any. Thus the desperation in D.C.
The long-suffering Ukies, Waffen Wannabees not withstanding, see no purpose in killing each other over it. Sending bombers to destroy the country in order to save it is more counterproductive than usual, when it’s a finance issue. A destroyed country can’t pay. Are western banks really that at risk from Ukie default? I think the hysteria speaks for itself.
I have asked almost all knowing internet to show me which banks are heavily exposed to Ukie debt. The answer consistently came up that Russian banks had lots of exposure, but European and American banks only a smidgen. But as I said, they are good at hiding the pea. There are rumors that big Austrian and Hungarian banks may have heavy exposure. Unicredit exposure means Italy is exposed. No wonder the provinces want out. Garibaldi be damned! There are almost certainly others because it is revealed that there is a large pile of corporate debt taken on by Ukie owned offshore subsidiaries. That doesn’t show up as being Ukie debt. Shells and peas, shells and peas.
Keeping Ukraine intact matters because the main thing they have to sell for hard currency is grain. It takes land to grow grain and less land means less grain. In my research I discovered an ominous bit of information. Over the past decade, Ukraine has been sharply increasing grain exports, while production has been in decline. The data shows crop yields hold pretty steady, which says acreage planted has been in decline. Ukie soldiers are hungry because the government has been shipping their food to foreigners. Helps to explain Cargill’s involvement in the machinations.
Methinks the Wall Street boys are more than a little worried about their immense derivative bets coming home to bite them on the ass.
Meet the Russian invaders, deep cover brigade.
http://rt.com/files/news/25/56/c0/00/bbc-1.jpg
Midgets dressed as children and soldiers in special “attractive female impersonation suits”. These are the elite of the elite Russian special forces equipped with the latest high tech goodies and well educated in unconventional warfare techniques.
BTW, if one looks at the photograph very carefully, one will see Putin, in one of his bush disguises, directing these specialists personally.
вот так
Crazy Ivan says…
Zulu/GMT or whatever.
There’s only one THE Zone Map of The World:
http://www.worldtimezone.com/
On the other hand how come you’re still using EST not EDT/DST?
This is ominous.
Kiev military op in eastern Ukraine LIVE UPDATES http://rt.com/news/eastern-ukraine-army-operation-680/
“19:03 GMT: Three people were injured after Ukrainian troops heading for Kramatorsk airfield in armored vehicles fired at a car attempting to block their way, RIA Novosti reports citing anti-government activists.
The incident took place near the village of Pchyolkino, south of Kramatorsk. The car was placed in the way of a convoy of an unknown number of vehicles, which then continued driving towards the airfield.
According to the activists, two people received leg injuries and a third one was shot in the shoulder. The wounded activists sought medical help.”
It’s possible those military are from western Ukraine or mercs, instead of regular Ukrainian soldiers, and these are now replacing the regulars. The plan laid out by the Americans talked of using the “irregulars” because the loyalty of the regular soldiers to the regime could not be relied upon.
The recent “flower power” successes in the east may not be a viable method much longer. It wont work against the mercs or the nazis.
вот так
Another bad turn:
Four anti-govt protesters shot while rallying near Ukrainian military base – reports http://rt.com/news/mariupol-base-shooting-ukraine-008/
“Four people have reportedly been injured by gunfire in a confrontation between anti-Maidan protesters and soldiers stationed at an Interior Ministry base in the Ukrainian city of Mariupol.
A group of several dozen protesters arrived at the base, located in the turbulent Donetsk region, on Wednesday evening.
They called on the troops to abandon the base, but the soldiers didn’t listen, the demonstrators said.
Instead, the troops opened fire at the protesters, injuring at least four people. One of them took a bullet in his chest and is in serious condition, according to protesters.
Some local media claimed the protesters were armed with Molotov cocktails, which they used in the confrontation, but no evidence of this was immediately available.”
Have not had time to search Russian/Ukrainian language sources to see what they say.
вот так
Quote: It is unclear to me what happened to the crews. Some reports say that they purchased civilians clothes and returned to their base, but that makes absolutely no sense. Strictly speaking, handing over their IFV to “terrorists” in a “battle situation” could get them summarily executed on the spot.
Some things seem to be too good to be true. The moment I heard about it, a trojan horse came to my mind …
Two re-posts of this article
Ukraine Troops Switch Sides During Attack – OpEdNews.com
Ukraine Troops Switch Sides During Attack – thepeoplesvoice.org
Crazy Ivan says…
When I wrote two days ago in one of my comments on US weapon deliveries that it was “a game changer” you turned to your readers @EVERYBODY calling the news a canard and explaining why.
http://rt.com/usa/non-lethal-aid-ukraine-988/
I thought you were wrong seeing only AK-47 and heavy armor of Ukrainian Army but I kept low. Now the news is taking shapes.
What about night vision devices, laser devices (targeting, rangefinders, Paveways systems, etc), command and communication systems, chemical grenades (non-lethal!) etc.?
Another issue.
Today Mr Putin is answering the Nation – he had tied his hands.
At the same day there’s a “conference of four” (band of four ;-) ) planned on Ukraine’s closest future.
In the mean time Russia prays, asks, begs, explains, talks, keeps blind eye on Western deeds etc being in return maligned, spit at, derided, denigrated, sanctioned, lectured, etc (Polish FM once used the expression “Russia MUST understand” during short speech to TV reporter).
Why Mr Putin did not take advantage of the putsch to regain Ukraine I may only speculate. Let’s suppose there were salient cons.
Some say Russian invasion of Ukraine is an American trap for Mr Putin, others say just contrary – it is Putin trap for NATO to have sound justification for such a move.
But for me US/EU attack on Ukraine was God send opportunity to get back Russian population into Russia without tragedy of migrations.
Any Russian politician thinking Ukraine may be/should be a bridge between EU and Eurasian Zone is a moron. What has happened is clear enough to all – the US will never back off from the position of rabid attacker, once they gained so much.
Only military response from RF, partition of Ukraine and neutralization of UPA (http://bit.ly/1j2yh9n).
What UPA is able to do you may read in one text (for example) Massacres of Poles in Volhynia and Eastern Galicia (http://bit.ly/1j2zYUk)
From myself I may add one of the UPA’s entertainments was cutting victim’s belly then bringing pigs to feed them with victim’s bowels. Alive!
@Crazy Ivan: night vision devices, laser devices (targeting, rangefinders, Paveways systems, etc), command and communication systems, chemical grenades (non-lethal!) etc.?
What makes you think that these do not already exist in the Ukraine? As for C3I that must be installed, trained, and adapted to the use of a specific force.
So no, I repeat:
What the Ukrainians could you they already have. What they don’t have, they cannot use (at least for a long while).
Keep in mind 80%+ of the Ukie army is useless. The remaining 20% has enough gear for what it can do. You cannot take a military neglected for 20 years by the government and turn it into a better fighting force in a few days.
That is the HUGE mistake of 99.9999% of westerners: they think that weapons, technologies, hardware win wars. No – morale and motivation do that. It’s not the famous Singers which got the Soviets out of Afghanistan, and all the hardware of the US military did not help in Vietnam or Iraq. And sending weapons to the Syrian wahabis did not work either. And pouring millions into the Georgian military did not do it much good either.
I tell you – forget about weapons. They are basically irrelevant in this conflict.
Morale, that is what counts. If the Ukies really were facing a foreign invader, if somebody was REALLY a terrorist ready to kill, maim, occupy, deport, torture, oppress and otherwise mistreat them, the very same Ukrainian rag-tag army would turn into an absolutely formidable enemy almost overnight (with no special weapons deliveries). But if they are ordered to shoot their own people, then they are going to be lazy, slow, undisciplined, demoralized and no amount of fancy gear will make any difference at all.
My 2cts.
The Saker
Cray Ivan says…
Thanks for your reply, I appreciate it.
Do you know how Solidarity workers strikes were broken after martial law was introduced?
Just as you said. Town after town. They have no militia thugs (infamous ORMO) in enough quantities to quell all strikes at once.
So day after day they moved from town to town. Military vehicles surrounded works, industrial plants, manufacturing plants, etc militia unit were put high on dope then attacked and broke any opposition.
The same may be applied in Ukraine. Don’t tell me you would not be able to find scared or sold-out military units for encirclement tasks. The Right Sector and Svoboda’s national guards aka modern UPA is ready to shoot if not trigger happy like Aunt Julia.
Back to US “help”. Having better background in weapons used to fight in buildings, perhaps you would share with us what such military supplies would consist of. No one will believe the US provide Right Sector with hot instant soups. :)
My 2cts.
Regards
@Frenzied hysteria. Again and again, ask yourself why. Why…the frenzy is all about Putin. And I guess ultimately one has to examine what it is that he has done to rile up the “West” so badly.
Well, it is quite clear. Putin was declared Haman, the descendant of Agag,the king of the Amalekites, a people who were wiped out in certain areas by King Saul and David. In Rabbinical tradition, Haman is considered an archetype of evil and persecutor of the Jews.
How is Putin persecutor of the Jews? He smashed the Jewish Mafyia which was plundering Russia for the benefit of the Zionist Mafyia.
Ukraine was, in the dreams of the “oligarchs” still free in Ukraine slated to become a “Kaganate of Nulands” appended to EU, where they could have continued their looting and fight against Agag, er…Putin.
WizOz
@Saker, you’re absolutly right when you say Morale is what counts – just only remember about the german soldiers in WWII
Dear The Saker,
The lunatics in Kiev have now disolved the paratrooper brigade – stupider and stupider:
http://en.itar-tass.com/world/728379
Rgds,
Veritas
Putin sends the jackals of the Western Rightwing MSM into a frenzy of Pavlovian intensity, with drooling, barking and snapping of sagging jowls, because he is the antithesis of Western elites. Don’t get me wrong. I doubt that Putin is a saint or a sage or a miracle-worker. He may well be one or all of these, but to be better than almost any Western politician, all Western MSM presstitutes and the moneyed parasites who control those two ‘estates’, he need only be honest, which I think he is, straight-talking, intelligent and consistent in his behaviour. And I think that he is plainly all these. So I put the Western hysteria, which is a typical modus operandi for psychotics when thwarted, down to malice and spite, and the outraged envy of lesser types. I first began to think that Putin might prove the Real Evil Empire’s Nemesis after his speech at the Munich security conference some years ago, when he told it like it is concerning the US Reich’s brutal aggressiveness. And when he stirred the possum (as we used to say here) by mocking Obama’s declaration of US ‘Exceptionalism’, evoking a fully unhinged reaction from that senile stool-pigeon John McCain and much of the US ruling pathocracy, well, my admiration grew even greater.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2014/04/17/jews-ordered-to-register-in-east-ukraine/7816951/. Have you seen this report in USA Today? “Jews ordered to register in east Ukraine”
‘Russian, US, EU Ministers Drafting Document To Resolve Ukrainian Crisis’… (‘No Ukrainian Representatives Present) or something to that effect’Russian, US, EU Ministers Drafting Document To Resolve Ukrainian Crisis’… (‘No Ukrainian Representatives Present) or something to that effect.
http://en.itar-tass.com/world/728521
!!!! Didn’t we just liberate Ukraine? Or rather, they liberated themselves with the help of some Nuland cookies? $5B worth of cookies I guess.
I read somewhere that they were nazis posing as locals outside a church. Link on pc I’m on my phone I’ll have to check that and get a link if someone doesn’t beat me to it. Something like that.