For the Saker Blog by Saker Staff

This is too good not to be credited to Brian Berletic:

The United States (and small collective west) is refusing to choose the option that makes sense. This option is coexistence with the rest of the world. Their objective of maintaining primacy over the rest of the world is no longer attainable.

The Big Refuse is of course Lloyd Austin demanding that Russia cease fire.  Yeah, NO!  See Gonazalo Lira here:  http://sakerlatam.blog/the-saker-files/gonzalo-lira-why-did-lloyd-austin-call-sergei-shoigu/

Gonzalo Lira calculated the current rate of attrition:

At the current rate of attrition, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will see 10,000 soldiers die by the end of this month, another 20,000 dead by the end of June. This war cannot be won by Ukraine—it’s over. The only solution is to sue for peace. But the US won’t allow this.

Deputy Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the UN Polyansky stated that the Russian position on Kiev’s desire to join the EU has changed. It is now similar to the position on Ukraine’s accession to NATO. He also noted that he does not see diplomatic options for resolving the situation in Ukraine at the moment, given Kiev’s position. Polyansky added that without demilitarization and denazification, peace in Ukraine cannot be achieved.

OK, the non-news of the last days: The pontoon bridges

It was stunning in a not very positive way to see how many concern trolls simply kept reporting a purported failure of the Russian soldiers to cross the pontoon bridges over the Severnyi Donets river as well as misinterpreting the supposed loss of a bunch of tanks. Up to five times, these trolls reported, the Russians tried to cross a pontoon bridge.

The hint though was that nothing was reported in reliable Russian sources, yet, it did not stop the concern trolls. Martynov weighs in:

This overall change of the background of SMO may be in the foundation of obviously grossly exaggerated “peremoga” (victory in Ukie) by “annihilating” some whole battalion of “Russian” armor at some Severnyi Donets river crossing, which, as VSU said (red flag immediately) was “attempted five times in a row”. That doesn’t sound like Russian Armed Forces. I cannot find anything on this in Russian sources…

Once you know that this is propaganda, you can understand things like this:

After blowing up the pontoon, we were surrounded: the appeal of the captured AFU officer

The captured military officer of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Roman Tushevsky called on the Ukrainian soldiers to lay down their arms and stop the senseless bloodshed.

He said that he was captured while performing a combat mission – undermining the pontoon. On the way back he was surrounded and, after being wounded, surrendered.

“I want to appeal to my comrades: lay down your arms, nobody needs this war,” said the captive “VSUshnik”.

The commentator here from Defense Politics Asia has the right idea. He shows the footage available in the first half of his video and in the second half he explains without doubt that those pontoon bridges mean nothing to the overall Russian advance, the shape of the battlefield and Russian forces crossed the river as they had set out to do. There is no evidence of a batch of dead Russian soldiers, although there must have been casualties. This is a longer video so stay with it and hear the second half.

And if you do not know yet that this is Ukrainian BS, please hear the Russian MoD as to who destroyed who:

🇷🇺📹Footage of destruction of pontoon crossing and AFU units attempting to cross Seversky Donets River

◽️ During reconnaissance and search operations of a motorized rifle unit of the Russian Armed Forces, a UAV crew detected an AFU unit with infantry fighting vehicles attempting to cross using an induced pontoon crossing.

💥 Artillery fire completely destroyed the pontoon crossing and sank. The enemy armoured vehicles with their crews that had managed to cross on the pontoons were destroyed by Russian artillery fire and infantry fighting vehicle crews during the battle. Some of the AFU armoured vehicles were seized by Russian servicemen.

https://t.me/mod_russia_en/1632

The next bit of propaganda is out there: Ukraine of course wins the battle of Kharkov/Kharkiv (of course, this battle has not happened yet and the Russians are just fixing the Ukrainian forces in place and denying them maneuverability).

We have to explain again:

  • Russia is fighting a limited action.
  • The Ukraine is trying to fight a full scale war.

Russia is advancing steadily without letting itself be massacred at some pontoon bridge. Be careful out there with this kind of irresponsible reporting.

Remember in the previous sitrep we said .. Watch Now! Things are beginning to move right through the length of the LOC. Yesterday it looked like this:

The Readovka map is a little more detailed:

Take a look at one situation only – around Severodonetsk.

  • 1. The enemy failed in his attempts to hold Voevodovka. The bridge between Rubezhnoye and Severodonetsk was blown up.
  • 2. The battles for Belogorovka continue. The main supply route Soledar-Lysichansk is under fire from the Russian Armed Forces. Vehicle traffic is unsafe. The enemy shells the crossing near Belogorovka.
  • 3. An offensive is developing north of Popasnaya in the direction of Kamyshevakhi + Russians are probing the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the direction of Artemovsk.
  • 4. There are battles for Orekhovo and Toshkovo.
  • 5. There is also fighting on the outskirts of Severodonetsk.
  • 6. The battles for Privolye have begun.

With the Russian offense across the complete LOC, we are of course in Fog of War and details are not immediately available, or even relevant.  By the time we post something like this, the situation has changed.

—

Special Forces of the Interior Ministry of the DPR storm “Azovstal”, breaking through the walls – https://t.me/intelslava/28694  There are also whispers from the Chinese media that another attempt at an exchange of some kind is being talked about.

On Snake Island and in the late afternoon briefing … 💥 1 Bayraktar-TB2 unmanned aerial vehicle (https://t.me/mod_russia_en/1597) is shot down in the air over Snake Island and 3 Ukrainian Tochka-U ballistic missiles are intercepted. This of course has value only for the interest and it is clear that those that are pulling the Ukrainian strings here, really want to have Odesa.

Early Briefing by Russian Defence Ministry

💥High-precision air-based missiles of the Russian Aerospace Forces have hit

  • – 5 command posts and
  • – 2 ammunition depots near Spornoe and Berestovoe in the Donetsk People’s Republic.
  • The attacks have resulted in the elimination of more than 100 nationalists and up to 23 armoured and motor vehicles.

✈️💥Operational-tactical and army aviation have hit

  • – 43 areas of AFU manpower and military equipment concentration.

💥Missile troops and artillery have hit

  • – 18 command posts,
  • – 543 areas of manpower and military equipment concentration,
  • – 1 ammunition depot near Lubomirovka, Kherson Region, as well as
  • – 23 AFU artillery units at firing positions near Verkhnekamenskoe, Krasnyi Liman, Drobyshevo, Yarovaya, Korobochkino and Gusarovka throughout the night.

💥Russian air defence means overnight have shot down

  • – 13 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles near Chkalovskoe, Demetievka, Klinsk, Glubokoe, Balakleya, Goptovka in Kharkov Region, Staromikhailovka, Spartak, Elenovka in Donetsk People’s Republic, Petrovenki and Severodonetsk in Lugansk People’s Republic, including
  • – 1 Bayraktar-TB2 over Mankovka in Kharkov Region.

In addition, 3 rockets of Smerch multiple-launch rocket system have been intercepted Izyum, Semenovka and Snezhkovka in Kharkov Region.

Not too bad for a night’s work!

All those weapons being purportedly sent to the Ukraine? – Well the logistics are fut

The video summary is: The UK Ministry of Defence admits it is scouring the globe for Russian and Soviet stockpiles of military equipment;

  1. UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace admits that the most optimal equipment to send Ukraine is equipment they are already familiar with;
  2. Western equipment takes weeks, months, and in some cases years to not just learn to operate, but integrate tactically and strategically into combined arms warfare;
  3. The army the US and NATO spent 8 years building before this most recent conflict is being destroyed faster than the US and NATO can replace it – and it wasn’t an optimal force to begin with;
  4. A similar process played out in Syria from 2015 onward, ultimately failing and necessitating the direct military intervention by NATO (the US and Turkey) in Syria to occupy parts of the country, spoil victory/reconstruction, and preserve the remnants of their proxy force;
  5. Direct Western involvement in Ukraine, similar to the “buffer zones” created in Syria, is likely the best choice among the West’s poor choices left.

And then, you see things like this:

🇺🇦⚡️The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine forbade soldiers and officers to publicly criticize foreign military equipment

  • 1. A new order was received by the troops.
  • 2. Servicemen are forbidden to speak publicly in the media and social networks negatively about military equipment supplied from abroad.
  • 3. Violators are waiting for disciplinary action, as well as removal from office.
  • 4. The new document was developed at the request of the media people of Zelensky’s office.
  • 5. The Kiev leadership is closely monitoring the situation. It was revealed that Ukrainian militants are now actively criticizing American M-113 armored personnel carriers, Javelin complexes, and British anti-aircraft systems. In addition, Polish tanks and Czech Dana howitzers began to be criticized.

Clearly weapons delivery to the Ukraine is not as rosy as what you see in the western reports.

Now that you’ve seen the mod report, it should be easy to follow the detail from Readovka – here machine translated:

  • Over the past day, the topic of the loss of an entire battalion at the Seversky Donets River crossing near Belogorovka was actively discussed. There are a lot of versions of events: from the negligent attitude of the command staff on the ground, to the heroic feat of the soldiers of the Russian Armed Forces during heavy battles. For example, former DPR Defense Minister Igor Strelkov chose an interesting tactic – ” I know, but I won’t tell you about the BTGr’s personal losses at the crossing.” One thing is for sure-the losses are great, but without having been in this “infernal hell” it is impossible to say with certainty why they were incurred.
  • The situation on the fronts today is as follows:
  • The situation on the Kharkiv front continues to be very tense. Units of the Russian Armed Forces shelled the positions of Ukrainian troops in the areas of the settlements of Petrovka, Nursery, Russkie Tishki and Ternovaya in order to prevent their further advance.
  • The Izyum front. Last night, the village of Dolgenkoe was liberated from the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Slavyansk direction. Unfortunately, traces of terrible outrages were once again found on the site.  Ukrainian nationalists abused and killed a woman in Kharkiv region.  The body was found in the village of Dolgenke, liberated from the Ukrainian Armed Forces last night, by Ukrainian militants against the civilian population. According to unconfirmed reports, another Ukrainian Air Force plane was shot down north-west of Izyum.
  • Luhansk front. The bridge connecting Rubizhne and Severodonetsk was blown up. The main supply route Soledar-Lisichansk is under fire from the Allied forces. To the north of Popasnaya, an offensive is developing in the direction of Kamyshevakha. The beginning of the battles for Privolye is celebrated. In turn, the AFU command continues to strengthen the group in Artemivsk (Bakhmut )in order to prevent a breakthrough from Popasna.
  • On the Donetsk front, the Allied forces are trying to advance towards the settlements of Marinka and Novomikhailovka. In the afternoon, it was reported that the People’s Militia of the DPR and the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation stormed the settlements of Kamenka and Novoselovka-2.
  • Zaporozhye front. Heavy fighting is taking place on the outskirts of Ugledar. The locality of Pavlovka, which is adjacent to the south-western outskirts of Ugledar, passed several times from the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
  • On the southern front, there is another loss of the Ukrainian Air Force near Zmeyny. This time, a 4th-generation MiG-29 fighter crashed into the Black Sea. The Ukrainian command is preparing an offensive by the forces of the 28th and 60th Separate Mechanized Brigade in the Mykolaiv and Kryvyi Rih directions. There is a systematic artillery attack on the positions of our troops in Vysokopolye and Knyazevka.
  • Calibration today looked as follows: In Nikolaev the warehouse with ammunition of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is destroyed.  Eyewitnesses report a column of black smoke at the rear of the Ukrainian Armed Forces; 3 bridges necessary for the transfer of Ukrainian forces were blown up in the Kharkiv region; work was carried out on separate objects in Odessa.
  • Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to shell Kherson.  The cities of the Donetsk People’s Republic continue to be under heavy shelling. The Ukrainian Armed Forces have been shelling the territory of the DPR since morning.  Two people were killed, at least eight were injured, and the Kuibyshevsky, Petrovsky, and Kirovsky districts of Donetsk and Staromikhailovka were the most affected. Also, the Ukrainian Armed Forces shelled Dokuchaevsk – one person was killed, four were wounded, among them two RT cameramen were injured.
  • The Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation will conduct an investigation into the fact of the shelling of the Belgorod region.  Bastrykin instructed to open a criminal case.
  • An interesting fact is that NATO, in the course of saturating the Ukrainian front with its own weapons samples, sends outdated Western scrap metal under the “Russian press”. Surprisingly, sometimes it even comes to anti-aircraft guns of the Second World War.

And even now, the situation has changed.

Detail:

And we end with a partial quote from Mr Lavrov. This complete video and transcript will be posted when available as it was still live when someone snagged the quote. Seemingly the Russian forces will strengthen the rear echelons. We have to abide by the fact that it now looks like Russia is going to own the Ukraine, or part of it.

As other analysts suggested we also believe it’s now time for Kremlin to deploy more troops on the rear, the current number of Russian troops involved in the special military operation in Ukraine is enough to win the war but it will take more time than expected and it’s impossible to avoid overstretching as the involved brigades (100/120k soldiers in total) cannot fight simultaneously on too many fronts, latest advances in Donbass have been achieved thanks to a massive redeployment, in the region, of the troops initially deployed in other areas, thus some peripheral areas like several settlements in the Northern Kharkov region lately had to be abandoned without fighting, leaving behind their citizens at mercy of Neo-Nazi militias, which is unacceptable.

While it was acceptable to withdraw from areas that were under Russian control for just a few days, it’s simply immoral to withdraw from areas that have been under Russian control already for 2 months.

That is it for today. Enjoy your discussion and please be careful on the Ukie propaganda. It is everywhere.