There are so many rumors and opinions about the latest ceasefire for Novorussia agreed between the Novorussian leaders and the Junta reps that I have decided to make a small survey of the issues in the format of a Q&A/FAQ. I will write up a real analysis next week. I also will use this opportunity to explain a few thing about what my own personal position is. So here goes:
Q: Do you support or oppose the latest peaceplan?
A: Neither. First, I still have not seen the 14 points actually agreed upon and, most importantly, I don’t believe that this plan will hold.
Q: Why not?
A: Because it is opposed by all the following groups: the USA, NATO, the Ukie Nazis, most of the Novorussian field commanders and a large segment of the Russian nationalist ideologues in Russia. Furthermore, Poroshenko is so weak that he probably cannot impose his will on others. Finally, the Ukies and their western supporters have so reneged on every agreement they signed/
Q: So you think that this agreement is irrelevent?
A: No, not at all. For one thing, it’s perfect timing took a lot of wind out of the sails of the anti-Russian crowd at the NATO summit which, after all, did not result in anything more than hot air and empty threats.
Q: Are you saying that this is a victory for Russia?
A: Hardly, but it has been an effective way to temporarily defuse a potentially dangerous situation. Also, the very fact that neither the EU or NATO or the US were even present in Minsk is a very powerful symbol of the fact that the “indispensable nation” and it instruments of colonial domination are not indispensable after all.
Q: But will this ceasefire not allow the Junta Repression Force (JRF) to regroup?
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| Ukrainian solider – Russian solider |
A: Yes, but that is not that relevant because of the size of its strategic depth the Junta can to reorganize and regroup anyway. Most the JRF units close to the front are so beat up that “regrouping” will not help very much. At best (“best” for the JRF of course), this ceasefire will turn a hasty retreat into a more or less organized withdrawal followed by a much needed break. But the key thing to always remember is this: wars are won by willpower, by moral strength, by a fighting spirit. Unlike the Russians, the Ukies have had their fighting spirit completely broken by the NAF. Check out the picture circulating on the RuNet which I have posted above. It shows a wounded Russian solider (from the 08.08.08 iirc) war against Georgia and a Ukrainian solider captured in Novorussia (who had been made famous by his militaristic and neo-Nazis videos posted on the Ukie social media). This montage shows something crucial: just compare the determined and undefeated expression of the severely wounded Russia private with the totally broken and terrified expression of the Ukrainian “paratrooper”. The difference here is not “Russian” vs “Ukrainian” in an ethnic sense (there is no such thing as an “ethnic Russian” or an “ethnic Ukrainian” – they are all ethnically mixed), but the difference in the fighting spirit of the Russian solider and the Ukrainian one. And no amount of US/NATO aid can change this: unlike the Ukie, the Russian knows what he is fighting for and he is determined.
Q: What about Mariupol?
A: What about it? The city is still surrounded and the Novorussian Armed Forces (NAF) will not retreat. All this ceasefire does is “freeze” the situation around this city. If anything, the Ukies will use it to cut and run.
Q: Will the NAF benefit ceasefire?
A: Yes. There are several “cauldrons” in the NAF rear which are a pain, well, in the rear, which will hopefully be flushed out by a mutual agreement to have the JRF units to move out and leave their weapons behind. If not, then please remember that the NAF control all of the Novorussian/Russian border and that the “voentorg” (cover delivery of weapons and specialists) will continue unabated.
Q: Are you saying that all is good and we should rejoice?
A: Not at all. First, there are clear signs of infighting in Novorussia. Not only was Strelkov apparently blackmailed out of control, but there have been rumors of an attempted coup by Antiufeev yesterday. The Novorussians denied this info, others say that the coup failed, but there is no doubt that there are real tensions inside Novorussia now and that while some support the current strategy of negotiations (we can refer to them as the “Zakharchenko clan”) others clearly oppose it (we can refer to them as the “Mozgovoi clan”). Likewise, in Russia there are those who favor this strategy (most of the “near-Kremlin” circles “околокремлевские круги” – I explain this term here) and those who oppose it (Dugin, Colonel Cassad, el-Miurid, and many other generally para-Marxist bloggers and activists).
Q: So you agree that this is bad for Novorussia?
A: No, I did not say that either. I think that this is probably an inevitable and possibly indispensable temporary phase in this conflict with is neither a triumph nor a disaster, but something which is a natural consequence of the situation on the ground.
Q: What do you mean?
A: Contrary to most commentators here, I do not believe that the NAF have been “treacherously stopped in what could have been their triumphant march on Kiev”. The amazing successes in the south have totally obscured in the minds of many the undeniable fact that the JRF forces north of Luganks are still big, powerful and holding their ground, that the Ukies even managed a (small and useless) counter-offensive in the region of Dukuchaevsk and that, contrary to initial reports, the Donetsk airport is still not under full NAF control. Those who had imagined that the NAF would soon move on and take Odessa, Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk or even Kiev just don’t understand the military situation. Right now, the NAF can’t even take back Slaviansk, nevermind reconquer all of Novorussia.
Q: What about the notion that Russian and Ukie oligarchs are the real force behind this deal?
A: What oligarchs? Akhmetov has not only lost Donetsk forever, even the material infrastructure of this assets is now in ruins. Kolomoiski has had this assets in Crimea nationalized and he is now locked in a struggle with both Akhmetov and Poroshenko. As for the Russian oligarchs – they have exactly zero needs for anything in the Donbass and they are way too smart to invest anything in such a dangerous, unstable and ruined region. At least in the short term, only the Russian state will provide help for political reasons, but the Russian oligarchs have much safer and lucrative options than the ruined Donbass.
Q: Okay, then what about the accusation that rather then allowing the creation of a viable and independent Novorussia, Putin has created yet another Transnistria?
A: What is this thesis based on? On a 14 point plan which nobody has seen and which will be soon broken anyway?
Q: No, on the fact that instead of fighting Poroshenko and the Nazis, the Novorussians have been forced to negotiate with them.
A: Oh come on! How many times will I have to explain that, unlike westerners, Russians have no problems at all talking to their enemies? Study the history of the Tatar-Mongol invasions of Russia when the Russian Princes were always talking “negotiating” with the Khans of the Golden Horde, and yet that never prevented them from rising up and fighting them regularly. Russians are much more Asians than Europeans and in Asia talking to your enemy is normal, it is an integral part of warfare. If in the West talking or negotiating with your enemy is a sign of weakness, in Asia it is not talking or negotiating with your enemy which is a sign of weakness.
Q: So what do you think Putin want in this war?
A: What he always said he wanted: a united, independent, neutral, prosperous and friendly Ukraine, in other words – “regime change” in Kiev.
Q: So will he “sell out” Novorussia to achieve this goal?
A: I don’t know. Unlike so many armchair generals who apparently also moonlight as telepaths and prophets, I cannot read Putin’s mind or predict the future. What I can say is that so far I see no signs of Putin betraying or “selling out” anybody. In fact, it takes an amazing degree of blindness or intellectual dishonesty not to notice that the first and immediate consequence of what many assume was a Kremlin-ordered change in the Novorussian leadership has been a huge and successful offensive which crushed the JRF. If Putin wanted to “sell out” Novorussia to the Nazis, he could have easily done so just before that counter-offensive was launched.
Q: So you really love and trust Putin, don’t you?
A: No, but I will admit that what I have seen this man do for Russia and the world fills me with sincere admiration, often bordering an awe, and that I see absolutely no signs of him changing course. What I see is a leader whose methods and strategies are simply too subtle and complex for most “armchair heads of states” to understand. The very same Putin-bashing crowd which now is hysterically yelling about betrayal was saying exactly the same things about Syria when Putin single handedly stopped the US attack on it. And when the Russians told the Syrian to get rid of their (dangerous and useless) chemical weapons the same Putin-bashers were yelling from the top of their lungs that this was the ultimate proof of Russian back-stabbing. Now Assad has, if not won the civil war, but conducted a successful reelection and the West is now eating humble-pie and pondering how to best get Assad’s help in Iraq. So while I don’t “love” Putin, I sure despise the Putin-bashers not only for their short-sightedness and lack of expertise, but for their mind-blowing intellectual dishonesty. They are like a broken record constantly repeating “Putin betrayed, Putin betrayed, Putin betrayed”. In Russia this kind of rabid nationalists are called “горе патриоты” or “sorrow-patriots”. They are the kind that never actually do anything useful, but are the most vociferous about what should be done. I want to make it clear that I am not referring to Strelkov, Mozgovoi or any other real patriot who happens to disagree with Putin. I am referring to those for whom Putin-bashing is an end in itself and who basically don’t give a damn as long as they get to bash the man.
Q: Still, Novorussia wants independence while Putin wants a united Ukraine. Don’t you see the contradiction here?
A: Of course I do. So? That does not mean that one side is “bad” and the other one “good”, it just shows the truth of the US saying that “where I sit is where I stand”. The real question is how this contradiction will be resolved. So far I don’t know and I reserve judgment precisely because, unlike the “professional and full-time Putin bashers” I like to base my opinions on fact, not telepathy or prophetic visions.
Q: You constantly speak of “Putin bashers” – that is offensive to many!
A: Guess what? I am not a nice guy. I am an direct guy who calls it as he sees it and if that offends anybody, they are welcome to hug a teddy-bear and go sob on their bed. My message to them is – grow-up and remember that I owe you nothing. This is my blog and I write it for adults who value truthfulness and honesty over sugar-coated affirmations.
Q: What about Poroshenko – has he not won a huge break if not victory?
A: Yesterday I was watching the latest edition of the priceless Ukie propaganda show “Shuster Live” and it felt like I was watching a funeral. The host and all the guest were in a somber, sorrowful and quasi-depressed mode. Though they did not want to admit the magnitude of the beating which their “invincible Ukrainian army” just had taken, it was pretty darn clear that flag-waving was no more the order of the day. One Ukie official even said “when we are talking about 30 to 40 thousand armed men then we *have to* talk to tehse “terrorists”” – it was hilarious, really. So no. Poroshenko, far from having “won” anything, is in real deep trouble. For starters, his own Prime Minister – Iatseniuk – is absolutely outraged about the deal and makes no bones about it. Ditto for Timoshenko. I won’t even go into the Nazi freaks. The fact is that the protecting Poroshenko will now become a major headache for the local CIA station in Kiev: the guy is in HUGE trouble and his only hope is that during the next elections he will look less bad and less crazy then the rest of them. That is assuming these elections are held and that Iarosh or Tiagnibok do not simply seize power and execute Poroshenko for “high crimes, treason or being an FSB agent” (he is not, but how cares?!). The regime is so much on the defense that even though everybody knows that this plan is really Putin’s plan, the Junta is engaged in a massive PR effort to convince the public that this is really Poroshenko’s plan. The Russians, typically, just smile and are happy to give him the credit (remember, this is Asia – different rules apply).
Q: So what will happen next?
A: As I said, I am not a prophet. But what I know is this: Putin clearly has full control of Russia and Novorussia – what he says happens, he can deliver. Poroshenko has no control over anything, not even “his” own” ruling coalition. There is no real power in Banderastan right not, not even the local CIA station. For this simple reason I do not see how the ceasefire could hold. Then I don’t see much change in the military balance either. The NAF is far more capable than the JRF whose only advantage lies in the huge strategic depth of this territory. The JRF used to (past tense!) have a huge advantage in hardware and manpower, but even this is changing now. In terms of hardware, most of the best hardware they had is now either lost or in NAF hands. Yes, they still have huge reserves, but of old and terribly maintained equipment. As for manpower, the Junta clearly has more and more difficulties finding enough men to compensate for its huge losses. Just ask yourself a basic question: if you were Ukie, even a nationalist, would you want to join to JRF and go fight the NAF? Exactly. Yes, NATO has promised 15 million dollars. That would buy the Ukies, what, maybe 10 old and used T-72 or 3 T-80? This is a joke, really. But even if the US provides 150 millions in covert aid – this will not affect the balance, nevermind tipping it. As for the NAF, it is doing well and will probably get even more men and modern gear through the “voentorg”, but it cannot push too far. As one NAF commander said, “so far we have been liberators, but we don’t want to become occupiers“. The rule of thumb is simple: the further west the NAF goes, the less support it will get and the more it will expose itself to guerrilla warfare lead by a local insurgency. A far smarter strategy is to sit tight and watch the Ukies go after each other.
Q: Why do you think that will happen?
A: Because no matter what all this still holds true: the Ukraine was always an artificial country, Banderastan is even worse. There is no real power in control, even the Junta is “kinda” in power only. The country is economically dead dead dead. The economic crisis is only at it’s very early stages, and from now on it’s only going to get worse. Socially, the people are increasingly mad, disillusioned and feel lied to and, at the same time, less and less afraid to speak up. The Nazis are by far the most united and best armed group in the country, except for a theoretical “Ukrainian military” which, at least so far, has no leader and is therefore is not united (might this change in the future? Maybe). Basically, any person who took Social Sciences 101 in college will tell you that the Ukies will now turn on each other, God willing just with words and ideas, but violence is most likely. For the NAF it is far better to wait until Zaporozhie, Dnepropetrovsk, Kharkov or even Odessa turn into lawless cities which nobody really controls then to try to take them by force now. There is even a real possibility that the NAF might be seen as a liberator in these cities if chaos there reaches a “Mad Max” level.
Q: What if NATO sends in forces to prop-up the Junta?
A: LOL! First, I would strongly advise our AngloZionist “partners” (as they say in Russia) to first consult with their German, French and Polish colleagues to see if the latter have pleasant memories of being in charge of the Ukraine. Second, I would remind our AngloZionist partners that their move into Iraq and Afghanistan was supposed to be a love fest which would pay for itself. Third, I would also suggest to them that if they did not like Maliki, they might not like Iarosh either. Of course, sending a symbolic force to some maneuvers with whatever is left of the Ukie military is a good idea – it’s called “showing the flag” – but to try to do something meaningful by trying to use NATO military forces inside the Ukraine would be very, very, dangerous even if Russia does nothing at all to make things worse.
Q: What about the EU?
A: I think that it lost it’s willpower (not that it ever had much!). That ridiculous performance by Hollande has already come crushing down: turns out that his loud statement was an “individual opinion” with no legal meaning. Now, of course, the EU Kindergartgen (Poland, Lithuania, etc.) will keep on being what it is, a Kindergarten, but the adults (Germany, France, etc.) are showing signs of getting fed up. I don’t expect them to make a 180 overnight, no, but I just expect them to stop pro-actively making things worse. One of the possible signs of that might be a decrease in the role of the EU and an increase in the role of the OSCE.
Q: And what about Uncle Sam?
A: He is totally stuck in his only mode: demands, threats, condemnation, demands, threats, condemnation, etc. etc. etc. Normally “aggression” is part of that mantra, except that neither the US nor NATO have what it takes to militarily attack Russia. As for the AngloZionist ‘deep state’ it will continue to try subvert and economically cripple Russia, but as long as Putin is on the Kremlin I don’t see that strategy succeeding either.
Q: Sounds like you are optimistic.
A: If so, then only very very cautiously so. I don’t see a big drama, much less so a disaster, in what just happened, I think that Russia holds all the good cards in this game, and I see no danger for the people of Novorussia. To those who wanted to ride on a tank straight to the Maidan I can only say that even though I very much share their hopes and dreams, politics is the art of the possible and that smart politics are often slow and time-consuming politics. Maximalism is good for teenagers, not heads of state whose decision affect the lives of millions of people. Thus my temporary and provisional conclusion is this: so far, so good, things are better than they seemed to be only 2 months ago and I see no reason to expect a major reversal in the foreseeable future.
Q: What do you consider the biggest danger for Novorussia right now?
A: Political infighting. I don’t know if this is possible right now, but I would like to see the emergence of an undisputed Novorussian leader who would have the official and full support of Strelkov, Zakharchenko, Borodai, Mozgovoi, Kononov, Khodakovski, Tsarev, Bolotov, Gubarev and all the other political and military leaders. This has to be a truly Novorussian leader, not just a “Putin proconsul”, a person capable of negotiating with Putin for the interests of the people of Novorussia. I don’t mean to suggest that these negotiations cannot be friendly, if only because there can be no Novorussia against Russia, but this leader needs to represent the interests of the Novorussian people, and not the Russian people whose interests are (very well) represented by Putin himself. Right now, the main reason why Putin has so much power in Novorussia is primarily because there is still no real Novorussian political leadership. There is a Novorussian military leadership, and even they probably have to more or less do what the Russian military tells them to do. Far from being weakened by the emergence of such a truly independent and truly Novorussian leader, I think that the Russian-Novorussian alliance would be greatly strengthened by it. Novorussia should not, and cannot, be micro-managed from the Kremlin. In other words, what I hope is for a “Novorussian Nasrallah” who would be a loyal and faithful but sovereign and independent ally of Putin (like Nasrallah is for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei), but not a poodle like Blair or Hollande. Novorussia needs a spokesman and negotiator who could really have a mandate to speak for the people of Novorussia. Until that happens, I will always be worried for the future of the people of Novorussia.
Sorry if I forgot many good questions or points and please feel free to post more comments or questions, and I will try to answer those which a) do not misrepresent my views (no more strawman) or b) which I have not already answered ad nauseam elsewhere. To those of you who have – correctly – detected my irritation and/or frustration with certain comments I will simply say “guilty as charged” (- : told you: I am definitely not a nice guy :-). I won’t even bother justifying myself, either you can or you cannot imagine how frustrating it is for me to deal with, shall we say, some “personality types”. But either way there is nothing I could add to affect that. To the many kind, supportive, respectful, generous, educated, wise, interesting, funny, sophisticated, compassionate, intelligent, principled, honest, honorable and otherwise wonderful members of our community I want to express my most heartfelt and sincere gratitude: I simple don’t know how I could have made it through these terrible and tragic months without your help, support and kindness.
RFC: Now let’s get a good brainstorming session going about any and all the topics above.
Cheers and kind regards,
The Saker
Breaking:
Various sources –Cease-fire ended
AP;via ZH
Shelling resumes; Mariupol and Donetsk
@ZH DNR’s Account Twitter screenshot reads @ 2:01 PM-6 Sep,2014
Armed Forces Novorossia take Mariupol
A ZH various Twitter BBC, France24, Bild
and RIA
“Four Donetsk Residents Died in Shelling First Night After Ukraine Ceasefire: Militia”
Greetings from Singapore!
I have not posted here for many months, since I prefer to thoroughly read your blog regularly and think about it, instead of commenting.
What I have to say is on twitter @medjeral.
From the many sources I do read, your blog is the only I trust and I use to obtain certainity and clear doubts. There is a massive propaganda war going on, on both sides, and it is good to have a blog which is not on the ‘payroll’ of somebody, says things clearly and directly.
We are moving towards a new paradigm, away from a unipolar predatory system and nations which dare to pioneer this move will be a target for destabilization by the declining powers. No doubt the BRICS are the future, possibly including Iran, Syria and Argentina, but it is still a long and troubled way.
It is difficult to find today politicians which care for the national interest and at the same time look for other nations with common sustainable interests to associate and work together. Putin is one of this politicians for me and the idea of an Eurasian Union makes absolutely sense.
We have to move to a sustainable transparent consensual world, away from a predatory system built on debt and the notion that values are dictated by an ‘indispensable’ sole nation. Nobody has a ‘chosen’ status on this world and this term was and is thoroughly fascist. We all have a right to choose our values, our traditions and our faith and ensure that we respect thoroughly and sincerely others. The misery of others is my misery. The wealth of others is my wealth. The happiness of others is my happiness. We are all chosen to live and live as decent and productive human beings.
Economic value must be a product of actual physical exchange between two or more interested parties and not dictated by an option put of a speculating trader in far away Wall Street.
I could go on, but this is not the space for it.
Again my congratulations for your excellent blog.
Kindest regards
Mario Medjeral
By dealing with Putin, Poroshenko stands a much better chance of staying in power, and thus bringing calm and stability to what is left of Ukraine.
I believe, Poroshenko sees the writing on the wall. Poroshenko knows that the US, EU and NATO have sold him down the river, therefore he shall purge the ranks, then when safe, will work on agreements with Putin.
Let me inform you of a few points from the point of view of an American.
First, the monetary cost of the current operation in Ukraine is insignificant. The recent $15 million installment payment is less than trivial. When the cost reaches 15 billion a month there might be some sort of review, until then the price is not something anyone will think about.
The cost that matters is the political cost. The domestic political cost that is. The Ukraine operation is purely a positive on that front. The reservoir of Russophobia in the American public is enormous. In the political class the Russophobia compares with that of Iarosh or Liashko. Intellectuals with contrary opinions are hard to find and do not matter.
The strategic costs are large but they do not matter and are not calculated. I don’t agree with Col. Pat Lang about much but he is right on the mark when he speaks of a Children’s Crusade. Persons like Samantha Powers, Psaki, Harf, have nothing happening off camera more impressive than the rubbish they spew on camera. These are policy makers. In a functional foreign policy establishment they would be apprentice clerks. And they are all America has.
Saker is very correct Americans don’t talk much. We don’t talk to our enemies and we don’t that much talk to each other. When we do speak we are conformist and orthodox. We are a culture of yes men. Heterodox opinion mostly cannot be heard at all, if it is heard it is punished. If there are junior analysts – or senior analysts – in State or CIA who have information that does not fit the narrative their superiors want to hear they will sit on it. A few might make an effort to find a way to sugarcoat the intel and make it palatable if they feel it is very important, but this is usually career suicide. When Obama spoke recently of Russia’s diminishing population and reduced life expectancy it could have been an intentional smear, it could have been calculated propaganda, more likely someone had given him that 15 year old information in the past few minutes and he believed it without question.
The result will be that the hegemon plods on straight ahead. Should the Ukrainian venture fail there will be another front. And another. As for the storyline I read here that the Empire is crumbling, I have heard that for 50 years without interruption. I think it is probably true. Timing the final collapse of the Empire is not something one should bet on.
Anonymous only because I’m too old to figure out Blogger.
Center For Syncretic Studies posted an article titled, Eurasia Movement Interviews Boris Nad on Novorossiya, which is a conversation between Alexandr Bovdunov anmd Boris Nad.
Bovdunov asked Nad, “How do you assess the current events in the east of Ukraine? What is the meaning of the current geopolitical conflict?”
NAD’s RESPONCE:
In the former Ukraine today it is not a conflict between two nations, but titanic clash of two geopolitical poles (two, not three). These two poles are America, with its satellites, and Russia. There is no third party. The first force is on the side of the uniform, the liberal, and the totalitarian unipolar world, overt American hegemony; while the other – Russia, represents a multipolar world, with their very different traditions; a multipolar world that is still in the making. In the conflict in Novorossia it is therefore possible to see its many dimensions: geopolitical, ideological, historical, ethnic, religious … but, in its deepest essence, it is an age-old conflict of the earth and the sea, land and ocean, of course in a new form. It’s just a new form of the ancient continents of the Great War, of which Alexander Dugin has spoken inspiringly.
Essentially, Nad forwards the idea that the future of a new world, the birth of a multi polar world, is being forged in Novorossia. That Russia is in the process of emerging from the devastating rape and plunder of the USSR by the west because of the leadership of Putin, just as the west is in decline. Moreover, the conflict is a consequence of the IMF empire unable to accept the rise of a multi polar world or the inevitability of its decline or the emergence of a power capable of challenging its global designs. Israel, Syria, Libya, Iraq and Ukraine are all part of the same war by the empire to hold on to its receding power by preventing Eurasia from developing that will likely be decided in the Donbas.
Here is the link:
Eurasia Movement Interviews Boris Nad on Novorossiya
September 6, 2014
By: Alexandr Bovdunov
Dear Saker,
The last news are that a massive fascist counteroffensive has been launched. Indeed, it is all or nothing, now.
Kind regards
Anon @ 06 September, 2014 07:42
“Think about it. The NAF could probably have advanced towards Kiev and precipitated a much more concrete,visible and official NATO involvement – would that help NR and RF?” I have long thought that Russian T-90 tanks in Dnepropetrovsk or Kharkov would lead to Polish Leopard tanks in Kiev or Lviv operating overtly alongside Baltic infantry , with or without any NATO agreement or mandate.
There is no question in my mind the NAF has to advance cautiously, if necessary exploiting further Ukie losses and a wide open front after the Army and remaining volunteer battalions again press the attack and suffer huge losses. Of course, this implies the Novorossiya forces are receiving ever increasing quantities of mortars, artillery and anti-tank weapons with which to blunt junta the last gasp ‘Battle of the Bulge/Lake Balaton SS’-style junta offensive where they go for broke. If they aren’t or Putin somehow reduces the flow they could still suffer significant retreats, especially in the most vulnerable forward positions near Mariupol. If the Ukies had a half a brain they would send those 500 vehicles and reinforcement reserves being massed at Slavyiansk toward the southeast to break the circle around Mariupol and get some positive morale going for their troops. But most likely they will try a stupid head on drive again towards Donetsk to relieve their troops at the airport there and a few of their soldiers might even break through. The NAF is again going to be tested this week as it looks like the ceasefire is already crumbling around Mariupol and never went into effect at Debalcevo.
Every battle is won before its begun.
As in business 95% of a project is planning and the remaining 5% is carrying that plan out to fruition.
Every battle is won before its begun.
As in business 95% of a project is planning and the remaining 5% is carrying that plan out to fruition.
I think the ceasefire is a good result.
I have very little doubt that the main reason this whole Ukrainian debacle was started by the West was to either humiliate Putin by making him concede influence and facility or be painted as an aggressor by forcefully intervening. In fact I would posit that the Ukrainians suffered so heavily because there strategy was primarily about Provoking Putin rather than actually beating the rebels.
So far he has neither lost influence of facility or been forced to intervene directly. Now the Ukrainians have been forced to the negotiating table having failed in all their objectives.
If the ceasefire holds (I think Poroshenko wants it to) then watch Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk turn on each other during the election campaigns as P dumps on Y for starting the war and being responsible for the disaster and Y dumps on P for selling out and appeasing.
Oh and of course its all back to Maidan for the next round.
Hello,
thank you for this very interesting post, and for the day to day reporting and commenting on the situation. This is very high level stuff. I agree with you (from my own humble level of understanding of all the numerous variables and complex decision strategic and tactical decisions: Putin has acces to much much more informations than everyone else, and condemn his decisions seems quite preposterous). I was a bit worried to see the communication and approvisionnement lines of the Donbass troups getting quite stretched those last days, and it seems to me that a reorganization pause would not be bad. But actually I am not too optimistic regarding the ceasefire.
I see people telling Poutin is a traitor, reasons given: S300 not delivered to Syria: well, Medvedev was president at the time, or invasion of Lybia not stopped, well, Medvedev was president at that time. For Lybia it is too late. For Syria other mechanisms of protection might have been implemented. So, if Poutin is a traitor, I suggest to find other proof. Those don’t seem to hold. We had a great man in France, once, De Gaulle. We did not permit him to lead the country quite out of troubles. Today we can be very sorry for that. It would be good that Russians remember that great men are a bit scarce, and that when you have one at the helm, it
is better not to weaken him with incessant opposition and discussions about how he should do things and how he should not.
Thanks again,
salam
According to :-)erohedge the DNR has officially claimed to have taken mariupol!,
Yet, the big problem lies north
Dear Saker: Please pardon if already reported. Scanned the comments for it, but didn’t take time read them. Another site has reported the following:
s/yugo-vostok/4477-voyna-na-yugo-vostoke-onlayn-06092014-hronika-sobytiy.html
23-54, Сообщение от Безлера:
“Срочная информация. 32 танка импортных зашло на Дебальцево, 15 Шилок зашли в танковую часть Артемевска, 7 Точек-У, 6 Градов плюс 1 Смерч в сопровождении 13 танков также импортных. Стоят на участке Славянск- Краматорск в сопровождении 13 танков импортных. С Мироновки на Дебальцево стоит колонна со всеми видами бронетехники протяженностью 3-4 километра. Боевые действия, со стороны украинской преступной власти возобновились. Теперь обратного пути нет, впереди у нас долгий путь до самого Киева!”
A large Uki force, including 55 imported tanks if I count right, is being assembled in the Debal’tsevo area. From Mironovka to Debal’tsevo there’s a column of armor 3-4 kilometers long, with substantial artillery. Combined with the reports a few days ago on Colonel Cassad that 16 battallions of combat-veteran National Guardists with substantial artillery and armor are being assembled into brigades just outside the area, to be ready by September 15, and that the regular-army brigades from the Perekop isthmus to the Crimea and from Transdniestria are on their way to the area, it seems likely that the Ukis intend a major attack soon. The ceasefire was evidently only a breathing space, for them to reassemble their forces.
So the ceasefire is over…
I knew it would be short, but it ended almost before it started!
“the NATO summit which, after all, did not result in anything more than hot air and empty threats”
hahaha:) Don’t you know that NATO stands for No Action Talk Only ?
Yet another excellent thoughtful presentation of ideas, which was well worth waiting for.
My big fear for Novorossia is the trap of infighting, which is a gift to the opposition. It would be an unbelievable tragedy if all the heard earned gains were lost, the deaths of the women and children, all the dead and injured troops were for nothing. All thrown away because of egotistical disagreements. After all, the military task is just the starting point, the end point being some kind of successful Novorossia. The minimal status there surely is a secure protected Donetsk / Lugansk combination with full control of the Russian border.
mjm,
Nice to see you back! But please do go on and on: maybe it’s bc I share your values but it’s sure nice to hear them now and again… ;~)
Anonymous 23:08,
Those are all very good points and I’ve only really got one comment on them but first, the easiest way to give yourself a name is to click on “name/URL”, then type in your moniker and forget about any URL. I hope you’ll do that bc you’ve set forth some interesting stuff and I expect you will again, too. The only thing I could add to it re: timing is that every Western empire I can think of right now (Rome, Spain, Portugal, the Netherlands, France, the UK) has fallen when it managed to get so overextended and out of whack that it could no longer afford to maintain both the home front and the perimeter. We appear to be doing that to ourselves right now: though you’re right, who knows when (or how) we’ll finally implode, I’m thinking we’re closer to that point than ever before. fwiw. ;~)
Great Post!
UKRAINIAN ORTHODOX CHURCH LEADER BLASTS PUTIN:
Patriarch Filaret, head of Ukraine’s Kiev-based Orthodox Church, said Putin had fallen under Satan’s spell and bore personal responsibility for all the bloodshed.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/09/06/uk-ukraine-crisis-idUKKBN0GZ18820140906
—Naijaa_Boy
@ Saker-what do you think about http://www.osce.org/home/123257 ? This is so-called “peace plan”.After reading it first thing i can think about it-it is act of treason and variant of Poroshenko “peace plan” – basically surrender.Both Zaharchenko(DNR) and Plotnickij(LNR) did sign such piece of garbage.Both did not say anything about what they actually sign and instead did talk about independence of DNR and LNR.So basically both of them and those who are behind them are traitors to ppl of Novorossia.In next couple of hours content of this “peace plan” will be known to anyone remotely interested what`s going on in Donbas including NAF commanders and soldiers.And all will think like me-act of treason committed by traitors.There will be lots lots of angered people.Btw Gleb Bazov is currently translating it to English.Please Saker after translation is ready post it here-to all non-Russian speaking people to read about “peace plan” signed by people who supposedly working for interests of Novorossia and instead betraying them by order of their masters.
Realize this is all nonsense, Saker, but worth knowing about:
From AP (yesterday I think):
“In a sign of the simmering anger, the head of one of Ukraine’s two main Orthodox churches on Friday issued a fierce rebuke of Putin, claiming the he, like the Biblical Cain, was under the influence of Satan.
“For the sake of his pride, he continues to multiply evil,” wrote Patriarch Filaret, head of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church-Kiev Patriarchate.
That church competes for influence in Ukraine with another Orthodox faction that is under the Moscow Patriarchate.”
Voice of Sevastopol has launched an English mirror site at
http://en.voicesevas.ru/
Voice of Sevastopol has launched a new English language mirror site at
http://en.voicesevas.ru/.
@Saker
Is prophesizing an act of seeing into the future or more an attempt to will it.
Every time Mohamed says Putin and Obama are in cahoots, he is attempting to create a reality — to prophesize, about things and events he knows nothing about. The fact that he does it continuously demonstrates his profound need for it to be true. Unforntunately it does affect a few people who share his need for a particular version of history to play out.
Every act of observation is an act of creation. We should all be mindful of the responsibility. I think you are admirably so every day.
Putin wants what he wanted from day one, a stable and united Ukraine under Russian sway. I believe the process is rigged so that this will never be possible. All the carefully planned sanctions and other planned destabilizations are already underway and will only grow worse.
If I wanted to prophesize for anything it would be for resolve. This brief moment of sanity will soon give in to a full resumption of hostilities in a war that will definitely continue.
All the infighting in the Novorossiya camp and complaints about a sellout ceasefire may be moot. The charge that Porkyshenko cannot control the ‘volunteer battalions’ and that the Nazis will break the ceasefire within hours proved to be true. Even some of the Maidan-self defense battalion fighters are accusing the Nazis of starting the shooting off at Mariupol and getting them all GRADed in retalation by the Novorossiya forces which are numerically and firepower-superior around the city:
https://twitter.com/Catherina_News/status/508408824730902528
At the end of the day, the weasels that siezed upon euromaiden need to be removed from office if Ukraine is to have any future going forward.
Also the facists need to get a clue – it’s the very extremist sectarian politics that has destroyed multiple countries in that hemisphere
” Anonymous said…
It is incredibly sad to see the picture of the Ukrainian soldier, who is so pained and distressed. I hate this thing called war. It rips the soul out of a man. It is true the right is on the side of the Separatists, whom I support whole heartily, but we are all human beings and it is impossible to ignore the despair of even an enemy.”
Well said, Anonymous. It cannot be Christian to regard another human being, even during wartime, in this manner. I am also very sad to see this tendency expressed here. It is not in the best Orthodox tradition either, which is a faith based on the four Gospels of the Evangelists, which are the texts from which all Christian faith begins.
All of the treatises which have been developed since then, and indeed there are many, must be consistent with those four accounts. The reverence accorded to the four Gospels is the ‘fact’ of Orthodoxy, and even the Epistles of Saint Paul take a lesser position in the church liturgy, followed by the dissertations Saker has referenced.
In Orthodoxy, it is your own intelligence which will give you the answers – not any of the clergy, not even the most revered of the bishops of the church. Much respect is given to ‘the people’ – you see it in the hymns and the importance of having the people proclaim the ‘axios’ or worthiness of a new cleric.
Not any of us are infallible, we are all imperfect, but some are indeed wiser than others, and except you become as a little child… In this, there is some affinity with Protestantism and also much similarity to Catholicism in its more mystical aspects, but ‘mystical’ with respect to the beauty of mystery and the unexplainable – more so than the logical basis of much of Catholic theology. I’ve studied both, too, and while only a few of the high masses are sung, in Orthodoxy every service, even the readings are sung. And they should be sung by all, even if you are tone deaf, because in that way you participate in the service – and the services are so wonderful! (I’m going to one right now – find one and join me! You will learn about Orthodoxy from precisely this!)
When one considers that even Judas was not held up to ridicule, the sanctity of every human being is the more to be respected in these troubling times than derided.
Dramatic photos with video of fire in Mariupol as Ukraine ceasefire ‘violated’
ITV:reports: Eastern Ukraine: Mariupol ‘on fire’ as ceasefire appears to end ” as the ceasefire between government troops and rebels appeared to come to an end after little more than 24 hours.”
Link for Video end of page here: interviews of people in Novorussia: “public has little confidence in cease-fire :after so much killing”
The ceasefire between Ukraine and pro-Russian rebels was said to have been broken tonight as prolonged artillery fire was reportedly heard.
. . . .
Just horrible
Protocol of the Trilateral Contact Group – Minsk, September 5, 2014
http://slavyangrad.org/2014/09/07/protocol-of-the-tripartite-contact-group-minsk-september-5-2014/
Again – maskirovka. NAF is rejecting and will reject this ‘agreement’ – apart from the military necessity of responding to the JRF ceasefire violations. This sets the stage for the reentrance of the White and the Red (as represented by Strelkov and Gubarev) in opposition to the capitalists, represented by ‘Putin’ and the ‘oligarchs’. The Russian Federation maintains plausible deniability, having bent over as far backwards as possible to force a traditional, capitalist, united Ukraine solution. Thus, the conflict enters a new phase. The Black, the White and the Red. The new force is the Red. That is the force that will carry us through the winter.
Gleb’s translation from his blog:
http://slavyangrad.org/2014/09/07/protocol-of-the-tripartite-contact-group-minsk-september-5-2014/
PROTOCOL
on the results of consultations of the Trilateral Contact Group
with respect to the joint steps aimed at
the implementation of the Peace Plan
of the President of Ukraine, P. Poroshenko,
and the initiatives of the President of Russia, V. Putin
Upon consideration and discussion of the proposals put forward by the participants of the consultations in Minsk on September 1, 2014, the Trilateral Contact Group, consisting of the representatives of Ukraine, the Russian Federation and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe [OSCE], reached an understanding with respect to the need to implement the following steps:
Ensure the immediate bilateral cessation of the use of weapons.
Ensure monitoring and verification by the OSCE of the regime of non-use of weapons.
Implement decentralization of power, including by means of enacting the Law of Ukraine “With respect to the temporary status of local self-government in certain areas of the Donetsk and the Lugansk regions” (Law on Special Status).
Ensure permanent monitoring on the Ukrainian-Russian state border and verification by the OSCE, together with the creation of a security area in the border regions of Ukraine and the Russian Federation.
Immediately release all hostages and unlawfully detained persons.
Enact a law prohibiting the prosecution and punishment of persons in connection with the events that took place in certain areas of the Donetsk and the Lugansk regions of Ukraine.
Conduct an inclusive national dialogue.
Adopt measures aimed at improving the humanitarian situation in Donbass.
Ensure the holding of early local elections in accordance with the Law of Ukraine “With respect to the temporary status of local self-government in certain areas of the Donetsk and the Lugansk regions” (Law on Special Status).
Remove unlawful military formations, military hardware, as well as militants and mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine.
Adopt a program for the economic revival of Donbass and the recovery of economic activity in the region.
Provide personal security guarantees for the participants of the consultations.
Participants of the Trilateral Contact Group:
Ambassador Heidi Talyavini (signed)
Second President of Ukraine, L.D. Kuchma (signed)
Ambassador of the Russian Federation in Ukraine, M.Y. Zurabov (signed)
A.V. Zakharchenko (signed)
I.V. Plotnitskiy (signed)
For God sake, the problem is not Putin but guys in his entourage. Dugin is right on that one!!
As for kirchner, morales and maduro being champions of the welfare of their people and multipolarity, no one could be more mistaken on the former issue and I would not place my hands ontop of fire for the latter one, They are more of the same. Dusseff is trustworthy
The peaceplan in English translated by Gleb Bazov:
http://slavyangrad.org/2014/09/07/protocol-of-the-tripartite-contact-group-minsk-september-5-2014/
Bernhard over at MoA has been having a pretty good time with how the best-laid plans of Obama and Bliar — oops, Cameron (I refuse to call them poodles bc poodles are far more intelligent) for NATO went rather extremely agley… (~: espina, if you’re around, congrats on the latest polling! ;~)
Okay, that wasn’t very smoothly-written but do see this:
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/05/world/europe/obama-and-cameron-call-on-nato-to-confront-isis.html?ref=world&_r=0
and/or head on over to read Bernhard’s rather gloating coverage thereof:
http://www.moonofalabama.org/2014/09/on-fighting-isis-nato-members-tell-obama-to-shove-it.html#comments
PROTOCOL
on the results of consultations of the Trilateral Contact Group
with respect to the joint steps aimed at
the implementation of the Peace Plan
of the President of Ukraine, P. Poroshenko,
and the initiatives of the President of Russia, V. Putin
Upon consideration and discussion of the proposals put forward by the participants of the consultations in Minsk on September 1, 2014, the Trilateral Contact Group, consisting of the representatives of Ukraine, the Russian Federation and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe [OSCE], reached an understanding with respect to the need to implement the following steps:
Ensure the immediate bilateral cessation of the use of weapons.
Ensure monitoring and verification by the OSCE of the regime of non-use of weapons.
Implement decentralization of power, including by means of enacting the Law of Ukraine “With respect to the temporary status of local self-government in certain areas of the Donetsk and the Lugansk regions” (Law on Special Status).
Ensure permanent monitoring on the Ukrainian-Russian state border and verification by the OSCE, together with the creation of a security area in the border regions of Ukraine and the Russian Federation.
Immediately release all hostages and unlawfully detained persons.
Enact a law prohibiting the prosecution and punishment of persons in connection with the events that took place in certain areas of the Donetsk and the Lugansk regions of Ukraine.
Conduct an inclusive national dialogue.
Adopt measures aimed at improving the humanitarian situation in Donbass.
Ensure the holding of early local elections in accordance with the Law of Ukraine “With respect to the temporary status of local self-government in certain areas of the Donetsk and the Lugansk regions” (Law on Special Status).
Remove unlawful military formations, military hardware, as well as militants and mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine.
Adopt a program for the economic revival of Donbass and the recovery of economic activity in the region.
Provide personal security guarantees for the participants of the consultations.
Participants of the Trilateral Contact Group:
Ambassador Heidi Talyavini (signed)
Second President of Ukraine, L.D. Kuchma (signed)
Ambassador of the Russian Federation in Ukraine, M.Y. Zurabov (signed)
A.V. Zakharchenko (signed)
I.V. Plotnitskiy (signed)
Protocol of the Trilateral Contact Group – Minsk, September 5, 2014
Gleb Bazov
Slavyangrad.org
12 points
Signed by:
Ambassador Heidi Talyavini
Second President of Ukraine, L.D. Kuchma
Ambassador of the Russian Federation in Ukraine, M.Y. Zurabov
A.V. Zakharchenko
I.V. Plotnitskiy
Now that we have the peaceplan in Russian and English, I guess some of us will start hitting the keyboard.
I don’t know the “Law on Special Status”, so I can’t comment. A lot depends on this law.
No 10, Remove unlawful military formations […], is odd and difficult to interpret. A source of confusion that may make a lot of people in Novorossiya angry.
No 6 is also open to interpretation. Are Ukrainian deserters included?
No 5 may mean that people charged with separatism are lawfully detained.
The document was produced in a matter of days. It is a start, but it needs much more work. I imagine it takes weeks of hard work for lawyers and a lot of good will on both sides to produce something better. Do we have time and goodwill?
I am in the peace camp, at least for now, since I am tired of the suffering, but I think we still don’t know where this is going. Everything that has happened in Ukraine has been unpredictable. Anything can happen tomorrow.
I look forward to hearing from lawyers and NAF forces on this blog. A lot depends on what they say.
Poroshenko may end up more protected by Russian agents than the CIA. Remember Ngô Đình Diệm.
The CIA likes a certain ideological purity that Poro, though corrupt and venal, basically does not have.
Long essay by Zahir Ebrahim of Project Humanbeingsfirst.org
What Have I Learnt as a Student of Truth?
http://print-humanbeingsfirst.blogspot.ca/2014/08/what-have-i-learnt-zahir-ebrahim.html
@ The Saker
Just a small house keeping note….Thank you for moderating a thoughtless comment I posted before doing sufficient research on Mark Sleboda. I spent some time today on his excellent facebook page. I watched his Introduction To Alexandr Dugin, Eurasianism, and the Political Evolution To The Fourth Political Theory. He
seems a man actively serving humanity in the struggle against the postmodern nihilism of the Anglo-Zionist Empire. These men actively search for a way out of the Petri dish.
It seems to me the genius of Vladimir Putin is to be able to consult with and listen to political thinkers, mystics, and philosophers; yet be a real man of action who attracts loyal capable men and women to carry out a vision of a new direction for Russia….Mother Russia respecting and preserving the great traditions against the soulless state apparatuses of Soviet Communism, Anglo-Zionist Empire, and Nazi Fascism. I am…well thrilled to see Russia emerging from the depths of anarchy and looting of the Yeltsin Era to search for a new direction for human community. Russia is emerging as a nation with a people; rather than a state with human resources to feed the bureaucratic appetite.
Last night I read a bio of Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu born of a Tuvan father and a Russian mother. I remember sitting in a Moscow restaurant in 1990 over hearing three Russian women talking animatedly about some war, which to my surprise was not WWII, but the Mongol Era seven or eight hundred years ago. This is an element of Russia many of us Westerners cannot comprehend. The sense of time, blood, cultures, and space are lost the post modern virtual world of the West. We do not have roots like that h anchor Russia in a communal way foreign to us individual rootless cosmopolites. It is the Century of the Self brought to destroy the Christian West by Sigmund Freud and Edward Bernays and company. Man is more than a ‘happiness machine’ and the Eurasianist thinkers and men of action bring humanity something more than being a well fed animal.
The Novorossiya project seems life stopping the descent of humanity into madness and nihilism. I do not think life will commit suicide and Novorossiya, its armed forces, its heroes, Vladimir Putin, and many visiting the Vineyard of the Saker sense a deep old call of tradition, community, true meritocracy, compassion, and human brotherhood in the struggle for Novorossiya.
What cease fire?
As an oligarch, does Poroshenko have a militia or guard to protect him? I could see him being assassinated very readily
Someone has to “pay” for this embarrassment
1. Poroshenco didn’t sign the document neither other Ukraine central authority, therefore they are obliged to nothing.
2. Zakharchenko and Plotnitskiy signed the document, therefore they obliged to everything that the document said.
3. No mention to LPR or DPR, therefore they don’t exist.
4. “Remove unlawful military formations, military hardware, as well as militants and mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine” that means surrender of the militias (the National Guard is so constitutional as Poroshenko) and expulsion of the international volunteers that were fighting for the Donbass people from Ukraine.
This document is Gorbachov-Yeltsin all over again.
Any comment?
To Were-Wolf: Pardon for responding to your criticism of Mohamed and his “wish and make it so” belief of Putin and Obama in cahoots. Not sure if I totally buy-in to the theory of willing it so or that its simply a matter of looking at the actions (and ignores the words) of Obama. His actions appear to be a synchronization of outcome with Putin. Maybe that’s just my view — and others don’t see it. That’s okay too. At least Mohamed is “willing” for a good outcome. At least he’s willing the BEST to unfold. Unlike so many others here who carp and complain and bitch about Putin constantly. Gee-whiz — no wonder he has to retreat to Valaam.
The New York Times confirms Strelkov’s alive! This article, written by Andrew Higgins, was published a few hours ago.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/07/world/europe/evidence-grows-of-russian-orthodox-clergys-aiding-ukraine-rebels.html?_r=0
I must admit, I was depressed and worried that we had lost Igor. I feared that the reports of his recent activities were just a ruse fabricated for the purpose of maintaining Novorossiyan morale.
What the hell appears behind the Red Cross ambulances? Strange barreled stretchers, aren’t they?
https://twitter.com/Alexsligo/status/508322938056368128
Impossible to talk with: Nazis must be killed.
Saker spends some effort in this essay refuting the ‘Putin bashers’. He is correct to do so. That does not mean Putin is infallible but he has without any doubt in my mind pursued policies that protect Russian national interests. Mistakes may have been made along the way but for the most part his actions have pretty accurate.
I find it interesting how he moved so quickly and aggressively in Crimea and then followed that up with such caution in the Donbas region. I knew for certain on Feb 22 of 2014 that he would not let Nato assume control over Sevastopol. At the same time I felt he would not allow anti-Russian, Ukrainian nationalist forces take over Donbas. It seemed obvious to me that he would send in Russian troops to prevent the later. As it turns out he has been very careful and prevented both events from happening without having to invade the Donbas.
Besides all of this incessant Putin bashing there is another trend in the comments here that are equally destructive. This is the notion that everything that has happened in the Ukraine over the last year is controlled by some US imperialist agenda and that the outcome of each event is in their favor was designed by some super puppet master that controls all of the pieces on the chess board, including Putin, Obama, the EU, the Brits, the Ukie neo-Nazis etc, etc.
This formulation is basically defeatist. There is nothing that liberation forces in this world can do because everything is controlled by this all power full puppet master. Who that might be remains mysterious but it is often attributed to US financial centers, Masons, Zionists, the MIC or what ever. This is total nonsense.
What we have seen in eastern Ukraine over the last few months is that a mobilized people can rise and defeat western imperialism. Obama had no idea how his efforts to bring Ukraine into the EU and Nato could blow up in his face. He failed in a spectacular fashion. His policies towards Ukraine is in shatters. This outcome was not intended. It happened because the people of the Donbas rose in opposition and defeated it. There was no puppet master guiding that outcome. It was a classic case of people power rising up against oppression.
Dear Saker,
Thanks a lot for a very good analysis.
Here in India we hardly seem to have any time for what is happening around the world even though this may be very important.
I must say I really fear that the Empire may decide to end Putin by assassinating him.
Also remember Putin is just a man , his mission of creating a better Eurasia is a bigger project. What will happen to that project when Putin is not there ? Are there any capable leaders who can carry on where Putin will be leaving ? Will there be any institutions left in Russia that can carry on this mission ?
I would love to know your views on this one.
Point 7. Conduct an inclusive national dialogue.
Is Porky strong enough to conduct an inclusive national dialogue with far rightists baring down on Kiev?
Point 10. Remove unlawful military formations, military hardware, as well as militants and mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine.
Trust us. We’ve changed. Dismantle your forces.
***
I sincerely hope the Russian army is planning a road trip to Transnistria.
If the Kiev regime begins to self destruct then everything is fine, otherwise, NAF forces should be ready to strike deep into Novorussia creating facts on the ground. If I were Russia I would much prefer to support Novorussia against Banderastan rather than trying to manage a turbulent and unworkable united Ukraine. This outcome no longer seems desirable. A united Ukraine would become a permanent war zone and training ground for the nastiest anti Russian gangsters around. This wouldn’t be like Vienna during the Cold War.
I say Putin has to split the country in two. After that, let’s see how people vote with their feet. I think Banderastan will be gutted leaving only an undefendable and miserable rump of failed nation behind.
If Novorussia and Banderastan can work out some kind of cooperative agreement to preserve the fiction of a united Ukraine that is fine but in the long run it doesn’t mean anything. Ukraine is finished.
“Q: So you think that this agreement is irrelevent?
A: No, not at all. For one thing, it’s perfect timing took a lot of wind out of the sails of the anti-Russian crowd at the NATO summit which, after all, did not result in anything more than hot air and empty threats.”
What are you talking about, This is not about Russia, this is about Novorossia.
When Putin force Novorossia to sign this deal, did he conduct a POLL in Novorossia to see how many of them agree to?
It is pure disgusting, back stabbing deal. How many more people will die because of it have you thought about it?
Why is Ukraine hates Russia so much now, could no respect be a factor?
You are creating another Ukraine by disrespect Novorossia’s leadership, armies force, and people. You are doing exactly same thing as you did to Ukraine people as you have no respect.
There is a Chinese story. A rich man feel charity, and set up a stall by the road and giving out free food. A starved man barely able to walk pass by. They rich man said, “Hey, come and eat free food”. The starved man walk one without turning his head.
A man can starve, but can not without dignity, and respect.
Novorossia is in dire situation, but RF has not respect, push their choice of leadership down its throat, now this despicable “peace treaty” down it throat, in the process undermined a very decent leadership. Does RF seriously feel it action will generate good will from Novorossia?
RF is big enough, rich enough to fight for its own war. Why in the word it need some one else to be its buffer, or some one to threw under bus to save itself?
Well, that document’s about clear as mud — although I’m more inclined to say quicksand. Saker, I’m sure hoping you can interpret it for us since I’m unsure even about the signatures, frankly: Talyavini was first (?), Kuchma has exactly what standing as Second President of Ukraine (?), and Zakharcheko and Plotnitskiy have no titles included (?) so they’re not officially in any official capacity (?).
Huh?
More questions:
1. How do you implement insuring?
2. How do you ensure monitorying, and what is a regime of non-use of weapons?
3. How do you implement decentralization and what is the Law on Special Status?
4. What is a security area?
5. Does the phrase “hostages and unlawfully detained persons” refer to POWs, or something else?
6. Will both sides be protected from this law-to-be-enacted regarding the prohibition of prosecution and punishment of persons in connection with the events that took place in certain areas of Donetsk and Lugansk? I.e., who’s being protected from the consequences of having done what?
7. What. On. Earth. is an inclusive national dialogue?
8. Which measures might be adopted?
9. Early local elections for what?
10. What — and whose — military formations are unlawful?
11. This sounds wonderful but just like the rest of it, Says. Nothing.
12. Providing personal security for the signatories is the most specific item on here.
Just off the top, this sounds more like one of those Israeli peace-avoidance plans than anything else: just what exactly was agreed to here? I’m assuming both sides had good reason for this and I think you probably nailed them very well — but at this particular point in time, does this have any meaning whatever, or any kind of lasting value?
I knew I didn’t know much, but I admit I’m more confused than ever at this point. At least I’m clear on that though! ;~)
@Russians are much more Asians than Europeans and in Asia talking to your enemy is normal, it is an integral part of warfare.
Russians are more Asians than Europeans in another sense, as our Chinese-American new contributor so well reminds us: “As for the larger-scale geopolitical struggles and shifts taking place, Chinese people generally see them occurring on the time scale of decades”.
I vividly remember the comments of an old Chinese “mandarin” in the French magazine Paris Match at the beginning of the Cultural Revolution: “China had many dynasties which came and went. This one is another dynasty!”
Russians also think in terms of “longue durée”(to use the expression coined by the French Annales School of historical writing to designate their approach to the study of history, which gives priority to long-term historical structures over events), which means also continuity in implementation of a certain policy.
As I had at times dabbled in “longue durée” stuff I ventured some “predictions” at the beginning of the crisis.
Churchill remained famous for his “view” of Russia: “It is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma; but perhaps there is a key. That key is Russian national interest.”
Obviously the Russian national interest is to keep NATO at arm’s length. So far it foiled any attempts to come close. It is also its national interest to have friendly, or at least neutral neighbours (a “strategic glacis”). In the long term, the attempt to transform Ukraine into a spearhead for troubles inside Russia will fail (it did already)lamentably. My feeling remains that Ukraine will become such a burden and embarrassment for EU that it will beg the Russians to come and clean the mess! Wishful thinking?
I wonder how many minutes the ZPC/NWO nazis allowed this most recent ceasefire to last? They are, true to massa’s form, taking the Israeli approach to ceasefires. IE: you cease defense and resistance to us and we’ll keep attacking you in the most cowardly way possible – and have our Jewish run mass media blame you for breaking the cease fire. According to this, the ZPC/NWO are proceeding as they always have after a ceasefire – no change in their terrorism.
The war in the South-East Online 06.09.2014 Chronicle
http://translate.yandex.net/tr-url/ru-en.ru/voicesevas.ru/news/yugo-vostok/4477-voyna-na-yugo-vostoke-onlayn-06092014-hronika-sobytiy.html
The nazis attack and then whinge about the response.
вот так
The US and NATO are desperate for this war to go on and they will never allow Kiev to stop. It is clear that the cease fire is used by the Ukies to move a tone of troops and new weapons to resupply and reinforce their positions in all crucial spots that were previously weakened by the Novorussians fighters. Kiev is not to be trusted and I’m sure everybody knows it. As of this time, the “cease fire” is over.
n Avakov’s Eyes Killing People, a Small Price for Nazification of Ukraine and Suppressing the Revolt of Oligarchs’ “Slaves”
Just before midnight on September 5, thus only some five hours after the introduction of the strange and politically problematic ceasefire agreed upon in Minsk on the same day, Arsen Avakov gave a TV interview. He came to the interview from the session of the inner security circle of the junta itself. Evidently, a key topic of the briefing of the security strongmen of the junta was planning, strategy and a course action with respect to the “ceasefire.” The ceasefire was also, consequently, the topic which opened the interview.
In this case, Avakov’s fatigue, arrogance, and insider’s knowledge all combined to reveal not only the character of this Nazi oligarch, but also much of the character of the current oligarchic regime in Kiev, which came to power through “the February revolution,” as Avakov dubbed the Maidan putsch in this interview.
The interview is thus very revealing and also very instruction. How do you know when you talk to a Nazi? Avakov shows how. He is in charge of the ministry of interior, hence also the police. In addition, he is also in charge of the so-called National Guard, which is formed as storm troopers or junta’s special forces. These battalions are formed of people who sign up for strictly political and ideological reasons. That’s why the Azov battalion with explicit Nazi symbolism is one of them.
The so-called ceasefire
On the subject of the ceasefire, Avakov had to say right off the following: “The agreed ceasefire is nothing but a clever cunning on our part in order to achieve what we want, which is to win.” To this effect, the ceasefire is but a small tactical measure; the strategic goal is to overthrow “Putin, the tyrant” and to change the system of Russia itself. This real greater objective and the current war in Ukraine were “planned for years and even for decades.” If so, then the personality of Putin is used both as a cover and symbolic shortcut for this decades-old plan.
However, “the current balance [in Donbass with the rebels on the attack] is absurd.” The junta’s and its handlers’ expectation was that the uprising in Donbass would have been defeated by now. That’s what Avakov himself stated some three weeks ago in a similar interview. However, what happened in the meantime, according to Avakov, dramatically changed the situation. Avakov claims that Russia introduced its own heavily armed troops into the conflict. The situation thus radically changed in the course of August when “Russia inserted 6-7 battalions with 4-7,000 troops.” Without this Russian aid, “we would have won by now,” Avakov argues.
part 2
According to Avakov, any recognition of the Donetsk and Lugansk Republics as autonomous, administrative, or political entities is completely out of question. For Avakov and the junta, the republics are “terrorist” organizations, “bandits.” “I don’t think,” he said, “that any agreements made [by Kiev] will [ever] recognize the Donetsk or Lugansk Republic.” In his view, there is, therefore, “nothing for [the junta] to talk about with these DNR and LNR bandits.”Or as he also put it:, the junta sees the Donetsk and Lugansk Republics as nothing but “bandits who serve global interests of the empire of evil,” which is for him Russia.
Avakov also sees the talk about federalization merely as empty chatter or a necessary ruse: All the talk about “federalization,” Avakov claims, was made up by Merkel. Federalization is out of question, and talk about it has no substance, in fact.
De facto confession to the Odessa massacre or How does a Nazi oligarch differ from a normal oligarch?
According to Avakov, himself an oligarch in his own right, comrade oligarch Akhmetov could have and should have suppressed the revolt of his Donetsk slaves in the beginning, but he didn’t see the danger and what should have been done clearly enough. Indeed, Avakov called the people in Donbass who rose up against the Banderite junta “slaves”–“slaves of their oligarchs.
In Avakov’s Nazi oligarchic eyes, the working people and miners of Donbass are “vatniks”–called so after the winter jackets worn by and popular with Red Army soldiers. Ukrainian Banderites and Nazi nationalists are now using the expression as a blanket derogatory term for the Russians and pro-Russian Ukrainians. For these Ukrainian Nazis, “vatniks” is a colloquial way for calling the Russians and the granddaughters and grandsons of the victors in the Great Patriotic War against Nazism “subhumans.” And, faithfully to Nazism, for Avakov, “vatnik” and “subhuman” means a slave (rab)
The Donbass people–these “vatniks” who dared to stand up to new Banderism and the oligarchic junta–are from Avakov’s point of view, “poor, not very rich, low paid, uneducated, without perspective or understanding, they cannot change or adapt and are clueless about the benefits of true European civilization.” According to Avakov, they are slaves who, moreover, “liked to be slaves–to their Donbass oligarchs such as Yanukovich, Akhmetov and others … for years they have thus been exploited as slaves by the oligarchic regime.” But then “something happened” with these oligarchic slaves and some of them “decided to play Robin Hoods and to rebel.
part 3
In March copying the methods of the Nazi oligarchs and their US and EU-supported Maidan, these slaves then seized and occupied some police and administrative buildings in Kharkov, Donetsk, and Lugansk, and launched “massive demonstrations.” Avakov was put in charge of suppressing this slave revolt in Kharkov where he was successful by sending in special forces that cleared the administrative building and arrested some 70 people, thus doing the very thing, which the West pressed upon Yanukovich not to do to the Maidan protesters.
According to Avakov, in Donetsk and Lugansk, more decisive measures were needed and they were not implemented. As Avakov explicitly put it, the administrative building and the protesters in it should have been destroyed with explosives. Failing to do so was the big “mistake of the oligarchs such as Akhmetov.”
In his own words: “Had we destroyed the admin building in Donetsk, 50 people would have died, but we would have saved Donetsk [for junta]”–(at 21:50 of the interview).
In a modified version, this is what the junta did to the Antimaidan protesters in Odessa during the so-called Odessa Massacre on May 2, 2014 when hundreds of the Odessites were hoarded into the Trade Union Building and then, when inside, massacred by Nazi battalions and activists, who were further directly assisted by the Odessa police–under Avakov’s and other junta leaders’ direction.
http://vladimirsuchan.blogspot.be/2014/09/in-avakovs-eyes-killing-people-small.html?spref=fb
Thank you Saker for all your work and dedication. One site I enjoy reading for truth. So, I personally vote for the peaceful ones. And can really see what the ‘will’ of the people can accomplish. It doesn’t matter how powerful a military is—-if the ‘will’ of the world population is against what they do; they will fail, and it matters not what the media will say, because truth is the true and victorious warrior.
old fart vet usa
I am sure President Putin knows that the ceasefire (which is not a peace) is only a screen for the Ukie to arm themselves again, and I hope for Novorussia as well. But general Winter is coming, and people had to come back to their houses and use this month to rebuild them. Besides to move tanks in winter is more difficolt, I only hope Mariupol may be taken before Winter. I do not see at this stage any conflict between Porky and the rest of the nationalists, they play the same game with EU-NATO; I do not thinkthere will be any deal on the gas price.
Mohamed,
I saw what Crossvader posted before. Here is my take:
Look at Middle east history before white man colonized it, peoples live peacefully together for thousands years, and great civilization.
Look at Africa before white man colonized it, peoples live peacefully together.
Then look at Europe, White men hate each other, killing each other from beginning of time, and still do. One people can feel superior than others depend on which side of bed it wake up, and can decide kill next people because it thought it was not good enough.
If the superior white man want to continue its glorious tradition of feeling superior, who are we to disagree. Let them be. We, the middle easterners, far easterner, central Asian, Africans, South Americans, work together, get strong, and get ride of their inferences that are cancerous cells undermines us, we will live a peaceful, and prosperous live.
Thorough and engaging. I’m struck by the fact that it appears the deal was done between Poroshenko and some representatives from Novorussia. Poroshenko and others can talk about a united country until the cows come home. The fact that the resistance was the other half of the ceasefire is a complete game changer.
In reply to the poster who sees the U.S. South as a victim in the Civil War, just a few points. The South started it by firing on Fort Sumpter. The vast majority of people in the southern states were not beneficiaries of slavery or slaveholders. Finally, the practice of slavery in the United States was utterly abysmal, immoral in the extreme, and against the principles of any religion, particularly Christianity. As Madison may have said to the other Virginia founders when speaking of slavery: ‘We had better hope that there is no afterlife.’
After a reading of the text signed in Minsk.It looks like a horrible betrayal.But then hearing from the Novorossian reps that signed it.What they are saying is very different than what the text shows.It makes no sense at all.The agreement is almost word for word Poroshenko’s “surrender” plan from June.Why would they agree to that.With all the lives lost since then.And why do they keep acting like Novorossia was recognized and saying they still intended to breakaway from Ukraine.The whole wording of the agreement rejects that and nowhere does it recognize them as separate from just Oblasts in Ukraine.
I wouldn’t be worry about any NATO military forces in Ukraine or/and around.
Don Cossacks are not far away eager to face it !
@VineyardSaker
Thanks for info re Russian Orthodox writers. Gives insight into Russian character and yours.
I was a Roman Catholic priest and monk. Left 1970. Have fondness for Church Fathers still but they are under the spell of patriarchy.
Father Hermes, a Greek Orthodox priest, taught literature. Attended some of his services. Remember the chant “Holy Strong One.” Russian character?
Like Russia, he was an “enigma wrapped in mystery.” Remember him walking in the thunderstorm, cape flying, apparently oblivious. Also hilarious absent minded professor, like walking out of class with his books and the lectern.
References to writers brought me back to 50 years ago. I long for deep thinkers like Father Hermes but haven’t found any in this shallow culture, re philosophy religion.
I admire Mother Russia but fear she is wrapped in smoke and mirrors by patriarchy’s patriarchs. I may check out your links. Love that depth but fear it’s not well founded naturally.
Anyway, this blog is replacing ICH in my first choice for news analysis. May my memories prove true. “Oh, Holy Strong One.”
Anonymous said…
It is incredibly sad … bla bla bla … to ignore the despair of even an enemy.
Some enemies are good at it when captured,they become crying babies. And when they run free, they might just cut your throw mercilessly.
Utopian world is far behind us, enemy of rightness should be executed to preserve humanity !
@three Russian women talking animatedly about some war, which to my surprise was not WWII, but the Mongol Era seven or eight hundred years ago. This is an element of Russia many of us Westerners cannot comprehend. The sense of time, blood, cultures, and space are lost the post modern virtual world of the West.
Oh, yes. That reminds me to add something important to my previous post (3:00h)
Russians, like most Asians, have a sense of History. They learn from History, which they study in depth. Examples from the past help form political decisions, unlike in the West where decisions are based on games theory.
@Patriarch Filaret, head of Ukraine’s Kiev-based Orthodox Church, said Putin had fallen under Satan’s spell and bore personal responsibility for all the bloodshed.
This shows beyond doubt that the whole Maidan Circus is a struggle against the Orthodox Church, first manifestations of the Antichrist!
Interesting broadcast by RTR in Russia.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gEItEEjN3cg
will be interesting to see if any of these predictions come to pass.
Qatari pro-Syria regime change lobby takeover of Brookings Institute via their Sheikh money laundering offices at the ‘Brookings Doha Center’ is now partially exposed by the New York Times:
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/07/us/politics/foreign-powers-buy-influence-at-think-tanks.html?smid=tw-share&_r=2
More on this in the latest open thread for Sunday Sept. 7, 2014.
WizOz, further to the Chinese view of history, I recall Gough Whitlam asking Zhou En-lai as to his opinion on the consequences for good or bad of the French Revolution of 1789. ‘Too soon to tell’, replied the old codger.
intelligent and balanced analysis of the situation. A pleasure to read.
Nora said @ 07 September, 2014 01:28
Well spotted Nora and according to Prof John Curtis there should probably be around 5% points added to the Yes campaigns numbers, as basically the YOUGOV and other polls are rigged in favour of the Anglo Zionist status quo, I personally believe the YES numbers are even higher. Whilst the Yes vote is made up of all kinds of people from all social classes and backgrounds, the vast majority are the many indigenous poor people who having given up on ever believing that anything would ever change due to voting in an election, the Neo Liberals thought they had us in the bag, permanently! People realise that they can actually change things for the betterment of all in Scotland….. http://radicalindependence.org/ We’ll no be havin any AZ types running anything up here shortly :) Trident will be gone from the Holy Loch asap and oul Lizzie can tak a hike an aw. I live in hope that the NAF prevail in taking Novorossiya aye and maybe the rest of Ukraine too, thereby creating a pole in eastern europe, The Eurasian Union, that neighbouring countries might see as a better alternative than the western european model. We in Scotland will be doing our bit on the atlantic side leading eventually to a trade and security bloc not from Lisbon to Vladivostok but from Árainn Mhór Island off the west coast of Donegal to Vladivostok. May the force be with us all….. Slan to a better world.
@Where-Wolf: Every time Mohamed says Putin and Obama are in cahoots, he is attempting to create a reality — to prophesize, about things and events he knows nothing about. The fact that he does it continuously demonstrates his profound need for it to be true. Unfortunately it does affect a few people who share his need for a particular version of history to play out.
Dearest Where-Wolf,
I see my dearest sister AGS has already responded to you. As as Prophecies are concerned, Islam teaches me, only God can Prophecies and no human can. God is All Hearing, All Seeing, All Knowing.
Let us look at the 12 points out of the 14 points in the Protocol, which are known to us. Let us not have short memories:
1. No mention of Crimea. Crimea was given to Putin on a Silver Platter on Day One.
2. From Day One Putin wanted a Unified Ukraine but De-Centralized Ukraine. We are getting there.
3. As I have been saying that Putin is being rewarded by the Empire for saving the Empire.
4. For those War-Mongers they cannot see and hope for a Greater Good.
Best regards,
Mohamed.
@Everybody,
Let us just not to focus on Ukraine only. Ukraine is not World. Look at both Obama and Putin, throughout the World, how they are cooperating with each other, rather than confronting each other.
Even in Afghanistan, the NATO corridor provided by Putin and they both working on Iran.
Isn’t cooperation better than confrontation?
Isn’t cooperation better than blind competition?
This is what the East has to offer the West.
Best regards,
Mohamed.
@Anonymous said: Mrs. America 2015 to be held in Crimea, Miss Ukrainian Diaspora pageant objects – RT
http://rt.com/news/185688-mrs-america-pageant-crimea-russia/
Is the above for real?
Is it the April Fool’s Day?
Best regards,
Mohamed.
“Anonymous said…
After the exchange of POW’s, won’t the magnitude of the Ukie losses become apparent to everyone? If the Junta will not publish the real data, then won’t the mothers and wives demand it by going into the streets to protest? Won’t the losses impact the October elections?”
This.
The western press are still quoting the UN figure of 2600 from a few weeks ago, sometimes rounding it up to 3,000 dead in ukraine.
Wheneer I talk to people about the subject i run into this wall that say western press true, RT=Pravda = lies.
A bit of honesty in the western press will make all the difference. The current meme is either that “the sudden turnaround is proof the Russians suddenly got involved” followed by, well if the turnaround was earlier that is proof that the Russians got involved earlier.
IF Mariupol is surrounded, the ukie army does not seem to have any trouble with supplies or reinforcements.