First, the easy one. Russia has a typical 5th column: pro-western “liberals”, assorted agents of influence, nostalgic of the 90s (when they could plunder Russia as much as they wanted), Washington Consensus types, folks who hate Russia (for whatever reason) and dream of the day Russia will break apart, etc. etc. etc. They are, objectively, agents of influence for the western PSYOPs. I coined the term “Atlantic Integrationists” because, at best, these folks want Russia to be accepted by the West as an equal partner and then join all the western institutions and become the next Poland. Of course, these folks are all russophobes, whether they admit it or not. They think of themselves as “elites” (they like to call themselves “intelligentsia”) and they feel much superior to the “dark, illiterate, masses” who vote for monsters like Putin. I think this is all pretty simple and I won’t discuss that any further.
Now the much more complex issue. Russia ALSO has a 6th column. I wrote an entire analysis of these folks in a post entitled ” Is there a 6th column trying to subvert Russia?” which you must read to understand what I am going to describe below. I will not repeat it all here.
I will, however, offer a few reminders:
- The western PSYOPs understood that when most Russian hear the the West and the Russian 5th column that calling Putin a “brutal dictator” they think “well, if they hate him this much, he must be defending our, Russian interests, and not the West’s imperial agenda” (Russians also remember how the West absolutely *loved* Eltsin!). Considering that pro-western liberals represent something in the range of 1-3% (max!), the folks at the CIA or MI6 figured out that they were wasting their energy and had to come up with a different plan.
- And somebody pretty sharp came up with the idea of calling Putin not patriotic enough, sold to the WEF and Davos, an agent of Israel and a traitor to true Russian interests. Of course, this is NOT what western PSYOPs told the audience in the West, but in Russia the folks from the CIA and MI6 found a very fertile ground amongst the folks who, for whatever reason, were disillusioned by Putin and who were instantly willing to pick up and repeat the narrative “Putin is not patriot, he is, in fact, a weak figurehead at best, and a traitor at worst“.
Again, I wrote an entire article about that, so please do read it to understand the “hows” and the “who” of all this.
My article was written on April 30, 2020, and I think I did a decent job describing a phenomenon nobody else, at least to my knowledge, discerned or described. But what I did not have is a “smoking gun”, the proof that my analysis was not all the product of conjectures or my misreading of the reality of Russian internal politics.
Yesterday I found that smoking gun. And, boy, it is good, really good. Let me explain.
There is a Russian retired Colonel-General named Leonid Ivashov. Here is his English Wikipedia page. It so happens that I had the chance to meet him and have a long conversation, one on one, with him in Moscow in 1993 when he was the Secretary of the Council of Ministers of Defense of the CIS States. It was quite a meeting, outside nearby firefights were taking place between the supporters of Eltsin and those who defended the Russian Parliament, so I had to pass two rings of heavily armed and very stern looking Special Forces to meet Ivashov (we met in the building where he had his offices and the guard was very strict). The fact that he was willing to meet me, a young Russian emigre and a nobody, in such crazy circumstances speaks to the kind of man Ivashov is: very nice, soft spoken, humble and very welcoming. We drank some Turkish coffee with cardamon (which he called “Moldavian style coffee”) together and even shared one glass of (excellent) Moldavian brandy. If I remember correctly, Ivashov served in Moldavia, hence his love for all things Moldavian. He made a great impression on me, he was very sober minded, superbly educated, amazingly open (especially for a Soviet-era general) and I think we parted on very friendly terms. I want to share all this with you to be as honest as I can about what I will write next about Ivashov.
Politically Ivashov was clearly a real patriot, no doubt about it. However, over the years, his criticism of the Kremlin policies and, eventually, Putin personally become harsher and harsher. Over the years he became one of the figureheads of what I would call the “anti-Putin patriotic movement” in Russia. Here are some of the talking points members of this movement often expressed:
- Putin is a pure product of the Eltsin “family”. He was deeply involved with the likes of Eltsin, Sobchak and the rest of the gang which took power in 1991.
- Putin’s elections are all fake, the people of Russia hate him.
- Far from saving Russia from disaster, Putin very much continued the Eltsin policies of the 90s, only wrapped in a pious pseudo-patriotic claptrap.
- Putin is selling out Russia to both the West AND China.
- Putin also sold out to Russian Jews, international Zionists and the Israelis.
- Putin betrayed and lost Russia when he recognized the Ukronazi regime in Kiev and stopped the LDNR forces from liberating more (some would even say “all”) of the Ukraine.
- Putin is surrounded by oligarchs whose bidding he does and whose interests he really upholds.
- The Putin regime does nothing against all the western agents of influence in the Russian media and government structures, but he viciously represses real Russian patriots.
- Russia is all but dead, we lost against the West, China will eat us up, economically Russia is dead too, import substitution did not even work, and Russia is still totally dependent on the West for basic stuff ranging from simply metal bolts, to microchips to entire machines.
I could go on for much longer, but I want to point out two crucial things here:
- The Russian liberals and the Russian anti-Putin patriots agree on many things.
- If what these folks say is correct, then its all over, Russia is done, and everything is lost.
That latest concept, “everything is lost”, even created a special words for those who believe that to be the case: “allislosters” (всепропальщики).
I have always contended that pro-US liberals and the allislosters fundamentally share the same ideas and are, whether they are aware of this or not, objectively advancing the kind of defeatism which the western PSYOPs want to inject in the Russian collective psyche. That idea is what I call the “Borg ultimatum” (from the Star Trek the Next Generation series): “resistance is futile, you shall be incorporated”.
When degenerate liberals a la Muratov or pseudo-democrats like Navalnyi spew that crap, they get traction with only a tiny proportion, a few percents max, of the Russian population.
But when real patriots say these things, it bring FUD (fear, uncertainty and doubt) into a MUCH bigger percentage of the Russian population, probably no less than 20%: not a majority, but a very sizeable minority.
Here is a machine translated (and slightly corrected) version of the text penned by General Ivashov and his supporters which was released yesterday and, very characteristically, immediately mentioned by the entire western media within hours. Read it for yourself before we continue. I bolded out some key sentences.
***
The Chairman of the All-Russian Officers’ Assembly, Colonel-General Leonid G. Ivashov, wrote an Appeal to the President and citizens of the Russian Federation “The Eve of War”:
Address of the All -Russian Officers’ Assembly
to the President and citizens of the Russian Federation
Today, humanity lives in anticipation of war. And war is the inevitable human sacrifice, destruction, suffering of large masses of people, the destruction of a habitual way of life, disruption of the life systems of states and peoples. A big war is a huge tragedy, someone’s grave crime. It so happened that Russia was at the center of this impending catastrophe. And, perhaps, this is the first time in its history.
Earlier, Russia (USSR) waged forced (just) wars, and, as a rule, when there was no other way out, when the vital interests of the state and society were threatened.
And what threatens the existence of Russia itself today, and are there such threats? It can be argued that there are indeed threats – the country is on the verge of ending its history. All vital areas, including demography, are steadily deteriorating, and the rate of population extinction is breaking world records. And degradation is systemic, and in any complex system, the destruction of one of the elements can lead to the collapse of the entire system.
And this, in our opinion, is the main threat to the Russian Federation. But this is an internal threat emanating from the model of the state, the quality of power and the state of society. And the reasons for its formation are internal: the non-viability of the state model, the complete incapacity and lack of professionalism of the system of power and management, passivity and disorganization of society. Any country does not live in such a state for a long time.
As for external threats, they are certainly present. But, according to our expert assessment, they are not critical at the moment, directly threatening the existence of the Russian statehood, its vital interests. Strategic stability is maintained in general, nuclear weapons are under reliable control, NATO forces are not being built up, and they do not show threatening activity.
Therefore, the situation being escalated around Ukraine is, first of all, artificial, self-serving for some internal forces, including the Russian Federation. As a result of the collapse of the USSR, in which Russia (Yeltsin) took a decisive part, Ukraine became an independent state, a member of the UN, and in accordance with Article 51 of the UN Charter has the right to individual and collective defense.
The leadership of the Russian Federation has not yet recognized the results of the referendum on the independence of the DPR and LPR, while at the official level more than once, including during the Minsk negotiation process, it emphasized the belonging of their territories and population to Ukraine.
It has also been said more than once at a high level about the desire to maintain normal relations with Kiev, without singling out special relations with the DPR and the LPR.
The issue of the genocide committed by Kiev in the south-eastern regions has not been raised either in the UN or in the OSCE. Naturally, in order for Ukraine to remain a friendly neighbor for Russia, it was necessary for it to demonstrate the attractiveness of the Russian model of the state and the system of power.
But the Russian Federation has not become such, its development model and the foreign policy mechanism of international cooperation repel almost all neighbors, and not only.
The acquisition of Crimea and Sevastopol by Russia and their non-recognition as Russian by the international community (which means that the overwhelming number of states of the world still consider them to belong to Ukraine) convincingly shows the inconsistency of Russian foreign policy and the unattractiveness of domestic policy.
Attempts through an ultimatum and threats of the use of force to make the Russian Federation and its leadership “fall in love” are senseless and extremely dangerous.
The use of military force against Ukraine, firstly, will call into question the existence of Russia itself as a state; secondly, it will forever make Russians and Ukrainians mortal enemies. Thirdly, there will be thousands (tens of thousands) of young, healthy children killed on one side and on the other, which will certainly affect the future demographic situation in our dying countries. On the battlefield, if this happens, Russian troops will face not only Ukrainian servicemen, among whom there will be many Russian guys, but also military personnel and equipment of many NATO countries, and the member states of the alliance will be obliged to declare war on Russia.
The President of the Republic of Turkey, R. Erdogan, clearly stated on whose side Turkey will fight. And it can be assumed that two field armies and the Turkish navy will be ordered to “liberate” Crimea and Sevastopol and possibly invade the Caucasus.
In addition, Russia will definitely be included in the category of countries that threaten peace and international security, will be subject to the heaviest sanctions, will turn into an outcast of the world community, and will probably be deprived of the status of an independent state.
The president and the government, the Ministry of Defense cannot fail to understand such consequences, they are not so stupid.
The question arises: what are the true goals of provoking tension on the verge of war, and the possible unleashing of large-scale hostilities? And that there will be such, says the number and combat strength of the groups of troops formed by the parties – at least one hundred thousand soldiers on each side. Russia, baring its eastern borders, is moving formations to the borders of Ukraine.
In our opinion, the country’s leadership, realizing that it is not capable of leading the country out of the systemic crisis, and , with the support of the oligarchy, corrupt officials, lured media and security forces, decided to activate the political line for the final destruction of the Russian statehood and the extermination of the indigenous population of the country.
And war is the means that will solve this problem in order to retain its anti-national power for a while and preserve the wealth stolen from the people. We can’t think of any other explanation.
From the President of the Russian Federation, we, the officers of Russia, demand to abandon the criminal policy of provoking a war in which the Russian Federation will be alone against the united forces of the West, to create conditions for the implementation in practice of Article 3 of the Constitution of the Russian Federation and resign.
We appeal to all reserve and retired military personnel, citizens of Russia with a recommendation to be vigilant, organized, support the demands of the Council of the All-Russian Officers’ Assembly, actively oppose propaganda and the outbreak of war, prevent internal civil conflict with the use of military force.
Chairman of the All-Russian Officers’ Assembly, Colonel-General L.G. Ivashov
Source here
***
Next, what I want to do is bring all the parts I bolded out into one single paragraph.
I would call it their “creed”, the symbol of their “faith”. Here we go:
The country is on the verge of ending its history. The non-viability of the state model, the complete incapacity and lack of professionalism of the system of power and management, passivity and disorganization of society. External threats, they are certainly present. But, according to our expert assessment, they are not critical at the moment. NATO forces are not being built up, and they do not show threatening activity. The situation being escalated around Ukraine is, first of all, artificial, self-serving for some internal forces, including the Russian Federation. (The Russian) development model and the foreign policy mechanism of international cooperation repel almost all neighbors, and not only. The acquisition of Crimea and Sevastopol by Russia and their non-recognition as Russian by the international community convincingly shows the inconsistency of Russian foreign policy and the unattractiveness of domestic policy. Attempts through an ultimatum and threats of the use of force to make the Russian Federation and its leadership “fall in love” are senseless and extremely dangerous.The use of military force against Ukraine, firstly, will call into question the existence of Russia itself as a state. There will be thousands (tens of thousands) of young, healthy children killed on one side and on the other, which will certainly affect the future demographic situation in our dying countries. Military personnel and equipment of many NATO countries, and the member states of the alliance will be obliged to declare war on Russia. It can be assumed that two field armies and the Turkish navy will be ordered to “liberate” Crimea and Sevastopol and possibly invade the Caucasus. The question arises: what are the true goals of provoking tension on the verge of war, and the possible unleashing of large-scale hostilities? The country’s leadership, realizing that it is not capable of leading the country out of the systemic crisis. This may lead to an uprising of the people and a change of power in the country (and) activate the political line for the final destruction of the Russian statehood and the extermination of the indigenous population of the country. War is the means that will solve this problem in order to retain its anti-national power for a while and preserve the wealth stolen from the people. We can’t think of any other explanation. We, the officers of Russia, demand to abandon the criminal policy of provoking a war.
I submit that this is unambiguously a terminally defeatist text. It basically says the same thing as what the Ukronazis were chanting in streets “Russians, surrender! Russians, surrender!”.
I am on record as saying that Russia has been at war with the Empire since at least 2013. Yes, that war is 80% informational, about 15% economic and about 5% kinetic. But it was (and still is) a very real war: the Empire lost that war on January 8th 2020 and the USA lost this war on January 6th, 2021. What is taking place now are truly mopping up operations, especially after the Joint Declaration of Russia and China!
Objectively, General Ivashov by his open letter is serving the interests of the CIA/MI6 PSYOPs, now the entire western media can say “Russian generals are opposed to Putin’s aggressive campaign against the Ukraine”.
The fact that this text was released at a time when Putin and Macron had a SIX hours long negotiation is also very telling, to put it mildly.
And then, there is this: this latest text DIRECTLY CONTRADICTS everything which Ivashov said many times over the past years. I don’t have the time or energy to give you all the quotes, but I recommend this video from the exiled Ukrainian blogger Anatoly Sharii, who shows and explains that all in details. The video is in Russian, but I believe that there is a way to get an auto-translation going in the YouTube captions. If you can, I highly recommend you listen to what Sharii says. I would summarize it by saying that Sharii correctly point out that Ivashov made a 180 and now even contradicts his own, past, views.
Personally, when I first saw that text I had to rub my eyes and make sure it was not an optical illusion or a hallucination. My next thought was that somebody must be blackmailing Ivashov. But that is highly unlikely. The man is already retired, I doubt that anybody has any “dirt” on him and, frankly, I don’t believe that he is a coward who would yield to such pressure or abandon his principles. Neither is Ivashov senile, at 78 he is still has very articulate mind (as shown by his live inteviews and videos on the RuNet; he ain’t no Sleepy Joe).
Was this text a fake?
Nope, Ivashov even doubled down this video.
So what in the world happened here?
Before I answer that question, I want to touch upon something very important.
In any PSYOPs or propaganda, WHAT you see is much less important than the EFFECT of what you said will have. So PSYOPs and propaganda are not aimed at “everybody” because people are different. Which I won’t even bother debunking all the factual falsehoods, logical fallacies or outright idiotic nonsense this text is full of. Most of the readers of the Saker blog easily can do that by themselves anyway.
Let me give you one example: these anti-Putin patriots constantly “warn” that there will be an uprising, an insurrection or even coup against Putin. So the WHAT is “a warning about something”, but from an EFFECT point of view, it is very simple: FUD – to try to induce fear, uncertainty and doubt.
In the real world, there is exactly *zero* possibility of any revolt, insurrection or coup against Putin. If anything, should the liberals or the anti-Putin patriots try to organize a Maidan in Moscow, they will be crushed not as much by the security services, as by the much larger ANTI-Maidan forces in Moscow (that already happened once in 2011-2013). So the argument is idiotically counter-factual. But the intended EFFECT is FUD at a time when Russia is winning on all fronts.
Not a coincidence.
That being said, what happened to Ivashov?
I see only one explanation: I would call it “ideological drunkenness”. That is when a person’s ideological inclinations become so acute and the reality in the real world so unacceptable, that a person becomes literally “drunk” with his/her ideology. We can currently observe that with the US Neocons, the Trump 2024 supporters, the anti-vaxxers and COVID-dissidents, and every single religious sect/cult out there. Notice that cults always emphasize emotions over rational analysis. You could say that their operating principle is “don’t confuse me with facts, I have my opinion made“.
And if you insist of facts, they get really mad really fast.
The main reason why the pro-western liberals and the anti-Putin patriots are so angry and even directly mad at the Russian people, is that both of these camps failed to get enough traction with the Russian public to truly weaken Putin or the Kremlin. So the crazy “defeatist stream of consciousness” shown in Ivashov’s text is the result from many decades of deep frustration and anger. Frustration because the Russian people did give their support to Putin over and over again and anger because far from failing, Putin is winning on all fronts.
When a rational mind finds that a prediction or an effort failed, it seeks to correct its initial assumptions and policies and develop new, more effective ones. You know, the scientific method and all that.
When an ideological mind finds that a prediction or an effort failed, far from analyzing reality, it seeks refuge in doubling-down over and over again or, if dates are involved, these ideological minds simply push back the date of the “inevitable collapse”.
And if that means that a 3 star general must write stuff he MUST know (due to his excellent education) are factually false and utter nonsense in order to push his ideological agenda, then we see that this is truly a desperate effort.
BTW – let me reassure everybody, this letter will also go to the trashbins of history even if it is used for a while by the unison of the chorus of the western propaganda machine. Folks in the West mostly believe the “Putin the evil dictator of Mordor” anyway. As for Russia, those who were already anti-Putin patriots don’t matter much, in this case Ivashov is preaching to the choir. As for the rest of Russians, they will “twist their finger at the temple” (Russian gesture to say “crazy”) and quickly dismiss it.
But for our purposes, this open letter is truly precious, priceless even.
In French we could say “Navalnyi ou Ivashov – même combat!” meaning “Navalnyi or Ivashov – same struggle”.
Mind you – Ivashov is so blinded by his hatred for “the regime” (he would say “the family”) that he is probably totally oblivious to how he comes across and whose interests he de facto very much serves.
This is very sad, and for personally too, I still like the man very much. Navalnyi is a sad, immoral piece of scum. But not Ivashov: I am certain that he is a good, honorable and sincere person. But like an alcoholic, he drank too much of his own cool-aid – his actions are not an expression of his personality, but of his (ideological) pathology.
Ideologies are probably the single most dangerous (mental) toxins out there.
My only hope is that the ridiculously over-the-top contents of this truly deeply delusional letter will open the eyes of those who are on the fence (in Russia and abroad) about both Putin and the anti-Putin patriots. If they are ideologically sober enough they might remember the words of Christ “ye shall know them by their fruits” (Matt 7:16) and realize that de facto anti-Putin Russian patriots are collaborationist with the western enemies of Russia.
As for Putin, oh sure, he does have his faults. And yes, there are still plenty of Atlantic Integrationists in the Russian circles of power (media, Presidential Administration, Government, Central Bank, etc. etc. etc.). In medicine, it is important to take note of two things: the condition of the patient and the evolution of the disease. I would argue that any honest appraisal of Putin’s actions over the past 20 years show two things:
- He failed to solve all the problems of Russia (I wrote about this in distant 2016!)
- But the evolution of Russia since Putin came to power an improving one, going from bad, to better and sometimes to even very good. Yes, it did take a lot of retreats and compromises to achieve the current situation, but there is no denial that in 1999 Russia was breaking apart while in 2022 it is clear that Russia prevailed over both the Empire and its main constituent, the USA.
Real, sober, patriots understand that, for all his faults, now is NOT the time to subvert or undermine Putin. Let him prosecute the war until Russia’s full victory, and then let’s put maximum pressure on him to finally develop a truly sovereign Russian internal policy and even polity.
I fully expect most anti-Putin patriots to never EVER admit that. That would invalidate no less than two decades of their (misguided) efforts to get rid of Putin were in vain and that they will never come to power themselves.
My personal biggest hope is that you, the readers, will now become fully aware of what I call the 6th column in Russia, as opposed to the 5th, traditional one: the next time you hear somebody deny the existence of the Atlantic Integrationists, the Russian liberal 5th column or the allislosters 6th column, please ask yourself: cui bono – who benefits from this denial?
The current standoff between Russia and the West has already yielded numerous very good results. To use an metaphor, Putin stuck a stick into the “western anthill” and all the ants (western politicians) are now running around like crazy. Putin’s success also stuck another stick into the “allislosters” anthill and all these ants (anti-Putin patriots) are now also running around like crazy.
How much comfort can the leaders of the West get from all of the above?
Not much.
It is pretty clear that both 5th column and 6th column PSYOPs have miserably failed. In fact, both the 5th and the 6th column can only preach to their choir, most Russians absolutely hate liberals and a majority also disagrees with the 6th columns defeatism. Putin’s recent series of major successes (politically, militarily, economically) really leave the 6th column no hope at all to prevail. At most, they will lash out and continue to predict an insurrection or coup, but that ship has sailed long ago.
That is not to say that we should dismiss that toxic and evil trio: Atlantic Integrationists, the 5th column and the 6th column. For one thing, there still are Atlantic Integrationists everywhere, from RT, to the Russian Central Bank, to the Presidential Administration, the Kremlin, the Government and A LOT in the media, including entertainment. Putin has pushed them back to some degree, the situation now is MUCH better than, say in 2017, but the enemy is still there. And Russia’s history clearly shows that the internal enemy is far more dangerous than the external one.
Furthermore, Russia is still a “one man show”: remove Putin and Russia will immediately undergo a major crisis, internal and external, if only because there is no credible successor to him, not by a long shot. I can name many very good people near Putin, his Eurasian Sovereignist allies, but none of them have his stature.
And he still has not found the opportunity to get rid of some dangerous snakes which are also in his close entourage. I believe that Putin is much more threatened by Russian financiers than he is by NATO or the US. And, always keep this in mind, Putin is no Stalin. He cannot just fire, expel, arrest or execute anyone for no reason: he has to follow the law which very much limits his power. Nor do I believe that a majority of Russians would approve if Putin started to act like a dictator: been there, done that, paid a huge cost and won’t ever do it again.
Still, should something happen to Putin (disease, death, incapacitation, etc.) we can be sure that the Atlantic Integrationists, the 5th columnists, the 6th columnists and the entire united West will pounce on Russia which will result in a major crisis which potentially could truly threaten the future of Russia.
The truth is that as long as Russia will still be in the process of redefining herself on the fly Russia will be unstable and vulnerable. But that is a topic for a future analysis.
Andrei
UPDATE: as soon as I posted this up, several commentators quasi immediately chimed in with “Ivashov is right”, “I agree with him”, etc. etc. etc. All commentators from the West, by the way. Considering how disruptive my analysis is to the western PSYOPs, I expect a deluge of trolls trying to “retake control of the narrative” in the comments section. Needless to say, I will eject them all without any hesitation. After 15 years of blogging I can easily distinguish a sincere critical comment from the typical output of trolls (paid or not).
Everyone has a right to have an opinion, but still can’t understand this kind of statement in a critical moment Russia is right now. Really bad timing.
I have to ask something, what will happen in Duma on the 14th of February? Would Donbass republics be recognized this time or nothing would change for now?
“UPDATE: as soon as I posted this up, several commentators quasi immediately chimed in with “Ivashov is right”, “I agree with him”, etc. etc. etc. All commentators from the West, buy the way. Considering how disruptive my analysis is to the western PSYOPs, I expect a deluge of trolls trying to “retake control of the narrative” in the comments section. Needless to say, I will eject them all without any hesitation. After 15 years of blogging I can easily distinguish a sincere critical comment from the typical output of trolls (paid or not).”
That is interesting.
So these Western commentators act as if they are more “patriotic Russians” than actual Russians themselves.
This almost sounds like a form of Concern Trolling as a psyops technique.
That is in no way suspicious–honest. ;-)
Seriously though, if you compare where Russia was in the mid-1990s as compared to now, can anyone sincerely argue that Russia is not quantitatively and qualitatively stronger, more prosperous, and simply better off in terms of both foreign and domestic policy?
This is not say there aren’t problems in Russia, as all countries in the world have. After all, no country on this planet is even close to being perfect–not even, believe it or not, the self-appointed Beacon of Liberty and Land of the Free™ itself, the United States of America.
But the differences are dramatically different between Before Putin (BP) and After Putin (AP) came to power.
Not to deify any one person, as a government is more than one individual, but the transformation of Russia during the Putin era has been remarkable–if not miraculous. Like a phoenix rising from the ashes.
And that, ladies and gentlemen, is *precisely* the reason why there is an obsessive, almost maniacal hatred of Vladimir Putin himself from the pro-Western “democrats” like Alexei Navalny, the super-duper “patriots” like Leonid Ivashov, or the collective West and self-styled Free World in general:
Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin is doing something right.
He is Making Russia Great Again by Building Back Better.
And now, the winners in the first Cold War, are fearful and enraged because Russia is Back….
I find the General’s letter compelling. There are some points I find particularly rational and appealing. It doesn’t make sense for Russia to inflict heavy casualties on the Ukraine, or to separate itself from Europe any more than is absolutely necessary. With the right approach Europe will come around, as will the USA.
Andrei, while some of your points and beliefs run contrary to my own, I respect your knowledge and capabilities. I am also educated and moved by much of what you say. I thank you sincerely for that. However I must mention that your writings seem to indicate a serious contempt for the west, despite growing up and living among Europeans and Americans. I believe that most Americans do not hate Russia and are absolutely not hateful people by nature. Be that as it may. It is your blog, and you have every right to say what you wish. I hope you will not hold me in contempt for what i believe. For example, I don’t believe the combined forces of the west are as incapable as you and the estimable smoothie state. Is this combined western force a match for Russia? I don’t know. For that answer I defer to and rely on your knowledge as an expert, Your analysis indicates that it is not. I am convinced though that the west is still capable of inflicting truly enormous damage on Russia and China, and of course that means on all of us. I have to think that no one wins in the next world war.
Granted, much ‘bad’ pervades the west. Serious ‘bad’. We have ceded control to evil sociopaths, and that control of our destiny and integration within the global community must be taken back. Change is needed to get us back on the right path. Even as we lose our freedoms by the day, for a large society such as ours here in the west, we can still lay claim to being more free than other societies, particularly China or North Korea, just for example.
Ultimately we have to ask ourselves, what do we want? Do we want:
A) As the good General suggests, to be an integrated global community that creates and enforces policy based on fairness and consideration of all with the goal that none is left behind and everyone benefits (a very Christian principle)?
B) Look out for our own interests to the exclusion of others, except partners of usefulness to our own ends? After all the other guy is doing it, so why shouldn’t I?
Someone has to start the ball rolling somewhere, right? War is always our answer, except that now, the weapons are so powerful and technology so advanced, we can kill huge swathes of the world population remotely and with little effort.
War is not the answer any more. This admirable General is perhaps an example that as we age, we start to understand the universal truths a little better. I tip my hat to him.
must mention that your writings seem to indicate a serious contempt for the west,
Okay, a couple of basics:
1) respect must be earned, not demanded.
2) to be respected, one needs to first show some self-respect.
I don’t believe the combined forces of the west are as incapable as you and the estimable smoothie state
Based on what? Please share with us your sources or military credentials.
Here is an interesting insight from a seasoned investigative correspondent Yuriy Selivanov posted on
https://news-front.info/2022/02/09/yuriy-selivanov-dorogi-kotorye-my-vybiraem“
As translated by Google:.
“As it turned out in the course of our investigation, this stuffing was not even discussed beforehand in the leadership of that public organization of retired military men, on whose behalf this “missive” started to get circulated on the Internet. We phoned some of the members of the presidium of this “group of comrades” and found out with some bewilderment that they were not at all aware of what was written there. This is how the next “nationwide messages” are cooked up in the depths of enemy special propaganda”.
I’d like to say a little bit. I’m in Moscow just now. I’ve just been out with an old friend (aged 50 or so) who works in theatre / tv as a scenery arranger / handyman (поставщик?). He works on a project basis and thus does not have a ‘fast‘ contract. He said something to me that I found fascinating. He sounded a bit like a dissident but neither a 5th nor a sixth columnist. He said that as far as he was concerned that the US and Russia were similar. He said that he saw a continuing, even intensifying process of work conditions being removed and inflation in every sphere that made life for him more difficult. He told me something which chilled me which was that he was approached by his boss asking him to distribute pay for his bank account to his colleagues because his colleagues, all 5 of them had had their accounts blocked by the state because they were in debt, I asked him and he said that the state would direct debit those accounts (paying whom?). That strikes me as brutal and fertile grounds for discontent as well as indicating the existence of an even bigger grey economy than I expected. He was concerned about increased xenophobia and racism in Russia. External problems in that telling become more about maintaining legitimacy. He spoke about neoliberalism mixed with Soviet rhetoric and referred to a newish film about Zoya Zeilyanskaya (a teenager who was famously shot by the nazis and became a symbol of the purity of soviet resistance) for that removed any mention of ideology from the Story replacing it with nationalism, which as we all know has the potential to be very problematic so I suppose that instead of dying for the moral business of Lenin , she said that that she was willing to die former country and her bread. This might be deemed off topic ie not about Ukraine / NATO but the point I am making is that Russia could be a bit more fragile than we expect. I would certainly have some concerns about the states ability to facilitate an active and politically engaged citizenry.
To Gideon Anthony
Maybe Zoya Kosmodemiyanskay? She was hanged by the Germans, after she had been brutally tortured.
Mas atrevo e reduzir esse personagem a uma palavra: traidor. Não menos que isso. Não importa se ele se dá conta do que faz ou diz. O que importa o dano que pode causar.
No entanto concordo integralmente com vc quando diz que por trás de Putin está uma grande fragilidade ou seja, ele é o líder insubstituível. Pelo menos nesse momento. Então se não há ninguém a altura para substituí-lo caso haja necessidade ou fatalidade, é fundamental que se comece a construir uma narrativa sólida que desmascare a quinta e a sexta coluna e isso implica, como já mencionei em outras oportunidades, em fazer uma ofensiva informacional sem precedentes que deixe muito claro para todos os russos que a declaração conjunta de Putin e xi contemplam tudo aquilo que a Rússia deve ser e fazer para sobreviver como estado nacional independentemente de quem esteja no poder.
Claro que tal ofensiva informacional deve mostrar ao povo russo, também, o quanto o ocidente tem medo da verdade. O ataque contra a RT na Alemanha é o melhor exemplo disso. O ocidente não aguenta cinco minutos de democracia. Uma ofensiva informacional interna e externa é tão importante quanto os avangards e zircons. A incapacidade da Rússia no momento de produzir uma contra narrativa a altura é o seu calcanhar de Aquiles.
Mas não tem melhor momento como agora para virar esse jogo também. A proibição da RT é um presente, um tremendo cavalo de batalha para montar e mostrar ao mundo como é falso um dos pilares em que o mundo ocidental senta a sua bunda flácida que é a tal liberdade de expressão e por extensão a sua “democracia” de fancaria.
Ah, sim, e começar a apertar o cerco contra os traidores internos. Nunca deve se subestimar a capacidade de um povo de se deixar enganar por canalhas de todos os tipos.
Google translation,MOD:
But I dare to reduce this character to one word: traitor. No less than that. It doesn’t matter whether he realizes what he does or says. What does it matter the damage he can do.
However, I fully agree with you when you say that behind Putin is a great weakness, that is, he is the irreplaceable leader. At least for the moment. So if there is no one able to replace him in case there is need or fatality, it is essential to start building a solid narrative that unmasks the fifth and sixth columns and this implies, as I have mentioned on other occasions, in making an offensive unprecedented information that makes it very clear to all Russians that the joint declaration by Putin and Xi contemplates everything that Russia must be and do to survive as a national state regardless of who is in power.
Of course, such an information offensive should show the Russian people, too, how much the West is afraid of the truth. The attack on RT in Germany is the best example of this. The West can’t stand five minutes of democracy. An internal and external information offensive is as important as avangards and zircons. Russia’s inability at the moment to produce a counter-narrative at the height is its Achilles heel.
But there’s no better time than now to turn that game around too. The ban on RT is a gift, a tremendous workhorse to ride and show the world how false one of the pillars on which the western world sits its flabby ass is that such freedom of expression and by extension its “democracy” is. of fancies.
Oh yes, and start tightening the siege against the traitors within. The ability of a people to be deceived by scoundrels of all kinds should never be underestimated.
A couple of other quite illuminating comments on General Ivashov’s letter from a different source
https://cont.ws/@alex581210/2203709
Translated by Google:
“… one gets the impression that THIS text, if indeed the product of the indicated organization, was created with the participation or under the influence of some Maidan personalities. Naturally, not a single normal Russian wants war, and even with Ukraine! But to consider the return of Crimea to Russia as a sign of the unviability of the Russian state (even the way it became as a result of the collapse of the USSR) is already more like insanity.”
And here is what Alexander Prokhanov briefly said about this, being a colleague of the general in the Izborsk club:
“It was just that his nerves could not stand it. We are in a very powerful neurasthenic field … in pre-war conditions … it is unsuitable for a statesman, whom I consider myself to be, to present conditions to the state.
I will add on my own: the question of whom Ivashov sees as president of Russia has not been disclosed? Is it not yourself almost 80 years old? In short, it smells heavily of personal ambitions, at some stage chopped off by someone, as a result of which an internal dissonance arose, resulting in an uncontrollable emotional protest, aggravated by destructive age-related changes.
Let’s see what the Poles have about this, otherwise Ivashov is already, it seems, a very welcome guest at any European get-together, and especially among downed pilots, such as MBH & Co. (МБХ – Михаил Борисович Ходорковский) In general, let’s see what the Poles think about this topic.
Oświat:
“Someone once said – If you want peace, prepare for war. If Puitin had not sent troops to the borders, then the Ukrainian army would have stormed the Donbass for a year. In general, regarding this general, I came to one conclusion: stupid as a cork.
marek500:
“Or they gave the old one greens to raved a little. No soldier in his right mind would say such nonsense. Even the US military must have been quite surprised to hear this insanity.”
Anna PK:
“If it is written by the military, even pensioners, this is a common betrayal. Such public speaking undermines faith and trust in the state, and this is not about Putin, but about the army. If the army begins to publicly set conditions, this is preparation for a putsch, a military coup.”
Ikulalibal:
“The organization “All-Russian Officers’ Assembly” does not exist, has never had and does not have a legal status and, in this regard, is not registered, and it is also unknown if it has any members. It is possible that the words “assembly” are Ivashov with his son-in-law and several colleagues from the army. Ivashov’s pitiful call is attributed to “nervous hysterics.” So far, patriotic circles have stated that they do not envisage any cooperation with Ivashov until the scandal is explained in detail.”
Henryk Kreuz:
“Traitor, that’s all! He was probably a traitor and a foreign agent for a long time.”
Curious why the Empire could not take over Russia in the days after the USSR dissolved and Putin rose? Were they too busy grabbing up property to effectively infiltrate the government.
I suspect, as busy as he’s been, Mr. Putin has still put considerable energy into ensuring a smooth transition were he to be taken from the scene. He does not seem at all reckless or unaware.
“resistance is futile, you shall be incorporated”.
That is the standard message from the western nations to their own citizens.
Maggie Thatcher phrased it a little differently as “There is no alternative”
A pair of Princeton Poly Sci PhDs did a study last decade, where they studied a couple of thousand issues over a couple of decades, comparing what polls said people wanted and what industry council and lobbyists wanted, and they found out that the American people rarely get what they want. In the end, the message is always, to the citizens of the Empire … “resistance is futile, you shall be incorporated. There is no alternative.”
At least some of the message of Putin and Xi might have been meant for a Western audience, those references to People Power. That has a harmony in America outside the Beltway, because at least some of us realize that we’ve got zilch, nada, none, zippo, zero. And the phrase does have a bit of a history, although it has been awhile since I’ve heard a chant of “Power to the People” around these parts.
Excellent analysis of a phenomenon of extreme significance in the current geopolitical contention. I have also met Gen. Ivashov and my impressions of him are exactly the same as Saker’s when he spoke to him in 1993. He is indeed a highly educated and forthcoming person and a patriot without blemish.
But I also noticed over time the transformation that Saker points out, and in particular the stridency which came to dominate his anti-Putin rhetoric. In trying to make sense of what Ivashov has turned into, his intelligence is a huge problem. If he were not such a sharp and broadly educated person, you could explain it all away on account of a lack of sophistication and inability to assess the impact of his statements when coming from someone of his background. Ivashov clearly has the intellectual ability to figure out whose interests his diatribes are objectively serving, never mind that we know that his heart is not in that camp and that he is a sincere Russian patriot.
So I am puzzled, as I am sure the Saker is also in that regard. I may add to this something I have found weird about him during the last couple of years. He has published several books of unconventional history where he promotes reinterpretations of historical events, some quite looney. I was willing to treat those theories as the fruit of insider information he may have been privy to as a high ranking military officer, but now when I view that in conjunction with the crap manifesto the Saker deconstructs I wonder slightly if Ivashov has all his marbles intact.
Whatever the ultimate explanation of Ivashov’s strange behavior, there is no doubt that it objectively serves the goals and purposes of the bad guys.
Andrei,
Having personal sectarian experience of “a Gen. Ivashov event”, I do believe that your analysis is very pertinent and accurate. I won’t go into details, but just say that I believe the general has suffered from the biblical injunction that says:
“9“Then you will be arrested, persecuted, and killed. You will be hated all over the world because you are my followers.b 10And many will turn away from me and betray and hate each other. 11And many false prophets will appear and will deceive many people.
12Sin will be rampant everywhere, and the love of many will grow cold.
13But the one who endures to the end will be saved. 14And the Good News about the Kingdom will be preached throughout the whole world, so that all nations will hear it; and then the end will come.”
Vs 12 of Matt 24 has little remedy in this world. Perhaps all nations, including the Empire, will so suffer. Mr Putin has been led by his Creator at critical moments and he has a momentous conflict to address in short order.
He has not failed at each hurdle so far. This is his greatness and love for his people.
Regards,
Ian
Thanks, Andrei, for this great analyses. The only thing I am still not sure about is…to what extent Chabad Lubavich (an exclusive, Jewish, messianic cult) is pulling the strings behind President Putin?
I am hopeful that Russia is out of the grip of Bolsheviks amongst the modern-day Khazaars. Russia, like Germany, and now the USA is paying a huge price for letting these Khazaarians take over their country.
Your comments, please!
Just read an article about this general in the FAZ this morning.
Good prediction by the saker.
Can you identify these guys? I assume the guy with glasses is some kind of extremist? Surely this is not the popular view in Russia?
https://www.reddit.com/r/iamatotalpieceofshit/comments/sov3nf/intellectual_conversation_on_russian_state_tv/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
“We, the officers of Russia, demand to abandon the criminal policy of provoking a war.”
Just who is provoking a war, Could it be the US Neo cons and their vassals in Europe expanding NATO to Russia’s border then installing nuclear weapons 5 minutes flying time to Moscow?
The very word ‘containment’ is a euphemism for stopping the growth of Russia and China, in other words their economies have to be economically sanctioned and physically surrounded by western forces until they cry ‘Uncle’. Any country with any self respect could not agree with such a humiliating defeat.
When President Putin Talks about Crimea he invokes International Law and he is right to do so, and since Crimea was a semi autonomous entity before rejoining Russia, as a ‘people’ it clearly had a right to do so. The only problem with that part of International law is when it says ‘all people have a right to self determination’ but it does not say which people, so for instance Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have the right to self determination even if only a tiny majority in each instance want it.
Or in another case the people of Catalonia are not allowed self determination with a threat of civil war if they decide otherwise, there are many parts of the world which this problem occurs and is dealt with amicably without civil war. Since the people of Crimea voted [by over 90%] to join with Russia a civil war with Ukraine would mean over 90% of the people of Crimea would have to be physically repressed, clearly an untenable position which the UK government would not allow to happen in the various constituent parts of the UK. The Dombas region of Ukraine want a degree of autonomy for the obvious reasons of not wanting their civil rights trodden on, in other words they want a certain amount of devolution just as Scotland, Wales and NI has, without breaking up the UK. The Minsk agreements envisage such a scenario without the Dombas region leaving Ukraine. Common sense really.
Beautiful and very informative!
And just in the middle it inserts an an andisputable fact that :
“…the anti-vaxxers and COVID-dissidents, … cults always emphasize emotions over rational analysis. You could say that their operating principle is “don’t confuse me with facts, I have my opinion made“.
I can with the same success say the supporters of the experimental therapy “vaccine” being forced on everybody are a cult that does not want to be confused with the facts
And then this comment will probably get deleted because it doesn’t comply with the policy.
People who are against medical treatment that is forced upon them
by very corrupt and evil authorities with inferior motives are not against vaccines in general! To call them that is almost like saying Putin is western agent.
Thank you Saker for highlighting the concordance of the 5th and 6th columns despite totally opposed origins and motivations.
But is it a surprise ? Are we not at war ?
Be it since late 2013 when you started to open our eyes, or since Putin’s speech in the Munich conference in 2007, or since much much longer, it doesn’t matter, we are at war.
And at war, when you want to destroy the enemy, all the possible vectors that can create nuisance are good to take. They can be totally contradictory between themselves, it doesn’t matter, consistency is irrelevant at this stage. There are several other columns, on top of 5th and 6th, that the Empire will throw in the battle, its a multi vector approach to plant seeds of chaos in Russia.
The Maidan was a good example of this “throwing all possible vectors” in the battle. On the Maidan, you had the nationalists/banderistas/RightSector/neo-nazis as the main assault troops, but there was also a disparate bunch of pro EU dreamers, ecologists/environmentalists, leftists, anarchists, LGBTQs, Ukrainian orthodoxes, catholics, zionists, salafists, tatars, criminal gangs, football hooligans, adventurers…. all camping “peacefully” side-by-side, despite being totally contradictory one another.
All such seeds of chaos, all possible columns are/will also be activated against Putin, “the Putin regime”, Russia.
Good that the Fort is strong and well kept, however to be strong in defense is not enough.
The Empire also has his weaknesses and lines of fractures, let us also weaken the adversary. Let’s support those freedom truckers, lets support those catholic hispanos fed up with wokeness, those Gilets Jaunes…
Interesting that among Mr. Putin´s domestic “6th column” rivals, no mention of Vladimir Zhirinovsky. Russian internal politics is not an area of major expertise or personal interest for me, but just the remote chance that that VZ fellow might come to power makes me a greater fan of Sr. Putin.
^^;;^^
Morcegâo
Mas atrevo e reduzir esse personagem a uma palavra: traidor. Não menos que isso. Não importa se ele se dá conta do que faz ou diz. O que importa o dano que pode causar.
No entanto concordo integralmente com vc quando diz que por trás de Putin está uma grande fragilidade ou seja, ele é o líder insubstituível. Pelo menos nesse momento. Então se não há ninguém a altura para substituí-lo caso haja necessidade ou fatalidade, é fundamental que se comece a construir uma narrativa sólida que desmascare a quinta e a sexta coluna e isso implica, como já mencionei em outras oportunidades, em fazer uma ofensiva informacional sem precedentes que deixe muito claro para todos os russos que a declaração conjunta de Putin e xi contemplam tudo aquilo que a Rússia deve ser e fazer para sobreviver como estado nacional independentemente de quem esteja no poder.
Claro que tal ofensiva informacional deve mostrar ao povo russo, também, o quanto o ocidente tem medo da verdade. O ataque contra a RT na Alemanha é o melhor exemplo disso. O ocidente não aguenta cinco minutos de democracia. Uma ofensiva informacional interna e externa é tão importante quanto os avangards e zircons. A incapacidade da Rússia no momento de produzir uma contra narrativa a altura é o seu calcanhar de Aquiles.
Mas não tem melhor momento como agora para virar esse jogo também. A proibição da RT é um presente, um tremendo cavalo de batalha para montar e mostrar ao mundo como é falso um dos pilares em que o mundo ocidental senta a sua bunda flácida que é a tal liberdade de expressão e por extensão a sua “democracia” de fancaria.
Ah, sim, e começar a apertar o cerco contra os traidores internos. Nunca deve se subestimar a capacidade de um povo de se deixar enganar por canalhas de todos os tipos.
Google translation,MOD:
But I dare to reduce this character to one word: traitor. No less than that. It doesn’t matter whether he realizes what he does or says. What does it matter the damage he can do.
However, I fully agree with you when you say that behind Putin is a great weakness, that is, he is the irreplaceable leader. At least for the moment. So if there is no one able to replace him in case there is need or fatality, it is essential to start building a solid narrative that unmasks the fifth and sixth columns and this implies, as I have mentioned on other occasions, in making an offensive unprecedented information that makes it very clear to all Russians that the joint declaration by Putin and Xi contemplates everything that Russia must be and do to survive as a national state regardless of who is in power.
Of course, such an information offensive should show the Russian people, too, how much the West is afraid of the truth. The attack on RT in Germany is the best example of this. The West can’t stand five minutes of democracy. An internal and external information offensive is as important as avangards and zircons. Russia’s inability at the moment to produce a counter-narrative at the height is its Achilles heel.
But there’s no better time than now to turn that game around too. The ban on RT is a gift, a tremendous workhorse to ride and show the world how false one of the pillars on which the western world sits its flabby ass is that such freedom of expression and by extension its “democracy” is. of fancies.
Oh yes, and start tightening the siege against the traitors within. The ability of a people to be deceived by scoundrels of all kinds should never be underestimated.
Saker says “Russia is still a one man show”. I agree. However, it has always been my heartfelt belief Putin was appointed by God Himself. Putin is the greatest statesman of the 20th and possibly 21st century, though he is more than that; he is the Defender of the Christian faith.
Yes, Putin is a mortal, yes, none of us know who can be the “next Putin”, but God did not appoint Putin for just a few years ( what human life really is) just to let Russia fail. I believe Russia ( and Putin) is protected by God and God already has the man to continue protecting Russia, once Putin is no longer. We don’t know who he is yet but is enough God does. Of course it does not mean there will be no difficulties and no heart aches as all life has them.
My advice: It would behoove Russians and those of us non Russians who want Russia to continue being on the side of God to remember these words:
“If God is for us, who can be against us?” (Romans 8:31).
I believe Russia is under the protection of God. Sincerely.