Introduction: the proverbial “fog of war” vs the Internet
Listening to all the innumerable opinions and news (the latter mostly fake) about what happened in the past days in the Ukraine, I am getting the feeling that I am observing to quasi non-connected worlds. The first world is the purely military world and in that world a rather minor incident happened. In this world, it is even possible that the Russian executed a crafty feint (Kiev op revisited). In the second world, let’s call it the “information space” Russia has suffered a crushing defeat and the entire SMO is about to collapse. These two worlds are so far apart that it is hard to compare them. So the first thing which I will try to today is to use common sense to try to tackle this issue.
So the first Big Question is: did the Russian General Staff conduct a brilliant feint to force the Nazi forces out from their dug in positions or did the General Staff totally fail to see the signs of an imminent Ukronazi attack, then screw up in a hasty retreat which left plenty of pro-Russian civilians in the hands of Nazi death squads?
How do we answer that? Well, one approach is that we have a massive screaming contest in the comments section and the social media, where some scream A! A! A! while other scream non-A! non-A! non-A! That is not very helpful. Why? Two key reasons:
- Nobody (that I know of) has access to the Russian General Staff (RGS) plans and intel and
- There are almost no verifiable facts on the ground (yet!) to base an opinion on
So this entire “he said, she said” might feel good, but it is useless.
So, what would solve the two problems listed above? Simple:
- Access
- Consequences
So, the “access” thing won’t change, even most Russian military commanders do not know the real plans of the RGS. We will never know the full truth, at least not from the Russian officials.
But consequences is the key here: from a purely military point of view, what happened is a minor incident, but if this was a huge mistake of the RGS soon we will see major military consequences, including a successful development of the Ukrainian offensive on the operational and (possibly) strategic levels.
Again, whether this was a brilliant RGS plan or an abject failure by the same RGS will probably never by clarified by the RGS itself for all sorts of reasons, both military and political.
So right now, we need to simply wait and, with time, we will find out.
That being said, we can use our heads a little bit while we wait and ask ourselves an interesting question: would there be signs which could help us, at least indirectly, guess whether this was a feint or a disaster. In fact, there are plenty, but I will suggest only three:
- Did the Russians fail to detect the Ukrainian force concentrations?
- Did the Russian organize an orderly retreat (including the evacuation of pro-Russian civilians) or was it a chaotic run for safety?
- Did the Russians bring in reinforcements in and orderly and planned manner or did they rush their forces towards the general Kupiansk area with clear signs of problems (road jams for example)?
I will try to suggest some answers to those three questions next.
- The entire Russian Internet was buzzing with rumors of a Nazi attack even while the latter were attacking in the direction of Kherson. To assume that the RGS missed these signals would be to assume that the RGS is less informed that most social media users. Some will say that this is possible. I have to disagree.
- The retreat. Now that is an interesting issue which we will discuss in more details below, but I think that it would be fair to say that the Russian military forces suffered very few losses during this retreat.
- The reinforcements. Here, rather than to repeat it all, I will yield to Larry Johnson’s superb analysis entitled “Understanding Planning, Orders and Troop Movements in Ukraine“.
[Sidebar: I discovered Larry Johnson’s website Son of the New American Revolution rather recently through my friend Andrei Martyanov’s blog and I have to say it is superb. I highly recommend it to all my readers! Also, check his latest analysis posted yesterday]
Of course, all of the above looks at things on the theoretical “purely military world” I mentioned above. However, to pretend that something huge did not happen in our theoretical “information space world” would be simply silly because in that world a huge INFORMATIONAL EXPLOSION happened, that is undeniable, even if we don’t like it. So let’s look at it even if we don’t like what we see.
Modern PSYOPs are more powerful than ever
Here, before I continue, I am going to post a document mentioned by Andrei Maryanov in his latest video, the
This is a very interesting, if somewhat complex, read, and I do recommend you read the full thing. If you cannot, at least read the abstract. This will give you a good idea of the magnitude of the current information operations against Russia by the united West. Without an awareness of how huge this strategic PSYOP is you will never understand the true nature of what is taking place.
Now I don’t have the time to go into a detailed discussions of PSYOPs, but I want to mention just one thing here: in the distant 1980s I distinctly remember a US general on TV discussing PSYOPs and declaring that “we have not won until CNN says we won“. I am sure of the quote (I was very impressed by its implications) but, alas, I don’t remember who said that. But my point is simple: US military commanders already understood how important PSYOPs are, especially to the Western way of warfare.
Furthermore, it is not only about what theses a PSYOP campaign promotes, it is also about all the information which successful PSYOPs can obfuscate by drowning them in an informational tsunami made so much easier by the fact that the Neocons control both the Western media AND the key Western IT companies (YT, Google, etc.).
One example of the latter: the legendary LDNR commander Khodakovskii has been warning about large Ukrainian force concentrations near the city of Ugledar. That is exactly what many others have been saying about the Kharkov area, but now that the PSYOP focus is on Kharkov, this piece of news is basically buried under what Martyanov aptly calls “white noise”.
But there is much more to this: Western PSYOPs are not only directed at the Western audience, they are also very much directed at the Russian general public. They even include the creation of fake Telegram channels to announce plenty of fake news ranging from the hasty evacuation of the leaders of the LDNR to, I kid you not, the use of nuclear weapons (see image)!
This is just one, admittedly extreme, example, but there were many, many more.
And, of course, this is all made much worse by the absolutely TERRIBLE PR coming out of the Russian MoD: first General Konashenkov remained totally silent, and then he made a sudden announcement that all this was a super-dooper feint. The reaction to that on many (if not most) Russian Telegram channels was “well, thank God, at least this time he did not say that “it was an act of good will by Russia” (remember that idiotic statement by Lavrov iirc?).
So while the enemy says A, the Russian MoD first saying absolutely nothing, and then is forced into a clumsy and utterly unsubstantiated declaration which only makes things worse.
And it is not like the Russian general public watches CNN or the BBC! This is a video which was shown in Russia, and which is now very successfully used to a) discredit Russia and b) to frighten pro-Russian Ukrainians, see for yourself:
Here is what this military official was declaring in Kupiansk last July: “It is a fact that it is obvious that Russia is here forever. Russia will never leave from here. And all the needed aid will be delivered according to the terms we have discussed with the head of the local administration. Russia is here forever“. This video was shown yesterday by the Ukrainian blogger Anatolii Sharii.
There are also some disturbing facts which cannot be denied. For example, by pulling out from Izium, the Russians have now opened the road between Kharkov, Izium, Slaviansk, Kramatorsk and Bakhmut/Soledar. This makes no sense, as Big Serge correctly pointed out on his blog, Izium is the “gateway to the Donbass” and not only did the Russians know that, they also knew that could have defended Izium. Yet, instead, they deliberately withdrew from it.
Why?
They better had a very good reason and I tend to think that they did (see below), but the official Russian verbiage does not address this question.
It gets even weirder. It was also evident that the town of Balakleia would be amongst the very first ones to be attacked by the Nazis, yet it was initially defended by a small force composed mostly of Russian Guards which fought truly heroically, but who were only reinforced by a relatively small force of paratroopers which eventually had to retreat.
Why?
As I said above, it is too early to come to any conclusions, but I will at least mention one possibility.
A deliberate withdrawal? A possible explanation of the why and the how
Okay, first, a caveat. I am NOT saying that this what happened. I am ONLY presenting a hypothesis which goes as follows:
-
The RGS did not want to attack the 2nd line Nazi fortifications which roughly goes, well, along the axis shown on the map above: Kharkov, Izium, Slaviansk, Kramatorsk and Bakhmut/Soledar. Doing so would have cost way too many Russian lives.
- There is strong evidence that the Russians did not seriously try to defend Balakleia, Shevchenkovo and even Izium. They only “dug in” once across the Oskol river near Kupiansk.
- While the initial Ukrainian force was relatively small (initial estimates spoke of 3 BTGs and special forces only), a much larger force (3 brigades according to some sources) soon poured into the terrain abandoned by Russia. This made it possible for the Russians to inflict huge losses on that force, its supply lines and even its headquarters.
- If the Russians had heavily and statically defended Balakleia and Izium, the enemy forces could have shown much more caution and not exposed themselves the way they did.
- If the Russians had organized an major evacuation prior to the enemy attack, that would have tipped off NATO (which, of course, is the real enemy here!) about the Russian plans.
- Leaving a token force could have been a bait. Yes, this is horrible, because if that was really the case, the soldiers in Balakleia or Izium were basically sacrificed. However, that happens in ALL wars. Does anybody see a difference between a false attack as a feint and leaving a token force behind? Either way, the chances of such forces are bad, but they are accepted for the greater good, in this case one could argue that leaving an exposed token force was infinitely better for the Russian plan than to have to take on the NATO forces along their fortified lines. Frankly, I am surprised at how well and for how long this tiny force fought!
What about the civilians in all this?
Truthfully, I don’t know.
In one of his videos Gonzalo Lira said that all the pro-Ukrainian population of Kharkov has long left and that only pro-Russian people stayed. Lira is in Kharkov, so who am I to argue?
However, Andrei Martyanov said that in reality, most of the pro-Russian civilians were evacuated and that this argument about “sacrificed civilians” is basically a canard and another NATO PSYOP talking point.
Again, who am I to say?
I will say this: from a purely military point of view, if you are willing to sacrifice your own soldiers you must also be willing to accept the loss of innocent lives, especially if this loss of innocent civilian lives prevent a much bigger loss of civilians lives.
However, if that was the calculation, I think that it was a mistake or, should I say, it was the correct decision, but poorly executed. Here is why
Where the Russians failed (again)
One word – PSYOPs. For all the military rationale hypothesized above, this does not address the absolutely terrible effects of the current PR disaster. Why do I call it a PR disaster? Two reasons:
- First, the undeniable and successful execution of PSYOP operation by NATO
- Second, the fact that even a lot of pro-Russian people believed the NATO talking points
It is all fine and dandy to separate military and civilian “worlds” like I did in the introduction, but in the real world they are forever intertwined.
To fully understand this, we need to look at how the Russian 6th column operates or, rather, how NATO PSYOPs use the Russian 6th column.
I defined the Russian 6th column as a mix of ultra-patriots, emo-Marxists, folks who are angry because they are not needed by, or even cared about, the current Russian leadership, “allislosters” (folks who mantrically repeat “all is lost! all is lost!” and “Putinsoldouters” (folks who mantrically repeat “Putin has sold out! Putin has sold out!”).
Some of them are undoubtedly agent provocateurs, but MOST ARE SINCERE! Why? Because of the awful Russian counter-PSYOPs combined with a superb multi-billion dollars Western PSYOPs industry.
Furthermore, I have come to the sad conclusion that many military arguments are simply too complicated for most people to understand. Not only are they often rather technical, but they are also much longer, meaning that it is impossible to defeat people who operate by slogans with long, detailed arguments. It simply does not work.
BTW – I know that what I am trying here is largely futile. I do it because my conscience dictates this and not for any other reason.
Adding to this is the illusion of expertise which so many non-experts have, quite sincerely so. They read about war (Clancy), saw it on TV (Hollywood) and are being literally *fed* talking points by NATO PSYOPs. There is only so long ANYBODY can resist this before becoming affected.
The superlatively important Asch conformity experiment
I will not explain it here, just read the Wikipedia article about it here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asch_conformity_experiments. I could also add here the known dialectical principle that “quantity can aquire quality on its own“. The bottom line is simple: our brains are hard-coded to naturally side with the majority. So if enough people declare that, say, the Moon is triangular, then, eventually, folks will start believing it. They will even start SEEING it (read the Wikipedia article if you have not!).
Of course, here we also have a bell curve. Some will always believe the perceived majority, others will eventually believe it, and some will not. But the number of those who will “mentally cave in” will always be MUCH bigger than the number of those who will critically use their own brain to try to ascertain reality as best can be.
Now, with this in mind, we can now start to see why the Kremlin is deeply mistaken in its lackadaisical counter-PSYOPs. And it gets worse,
How NATO uses the Russian 6th column
The Neocons have long figured out that the liberal Russian 5th column is either dead, or hiding. This is also true of the Atlantic Integrationists in the circles of power who have either kept a hyper-low profile or even made a 180 and are now patriotic firebrands (I think of Medvedev here).
Truth be told, the worst 5th columnists have already physically left Russia for the Baltic statelets, Poland, Israel or the UK. And those who have stayed are so ostracized by the general public that they have basically given up, at least for now. At the most, maybe 1 or 2 percent of the Russian population still takes them seriously.
In sharp contrast, the 6th column is much larger, by at least one order of magnitude. And this is no wonder, the 5th column was rather homogeneous and while it had access to critical circles of power (Kremlin, government, Russian media, industry, finance, etc.) it never had any real traction with the 65-70% “stubborn” Russian “simpletons” (быдло) who continued to vote for Putin no matter what.
So some really sharp folks figured out that it was a waste of resources to accuse Putin of being an “Asiatic dictator” wanting to recreate a Stalinist “Mordor” and it was far, far more effective to accuse him of either being weak, or dumb, or corrupt or all of that wrapped into one. Remember, the Asch conformity experiment now.
Before the war, the 6th column was having very little success, the main reason was that Putin was having many more successes than failures. So, and that is crucial to understand,
The absolutely worst nightmare of the Russian 6th columnists and assorted ultra-patriots is to see Putin succeeding at anything. They would much rather see Russia defeated than a triumphant Russia led by their oh-so-hated Putin!
Of course, they would much rather have Russia win, but only if led by them (or leaders they would approve of).
There are quite a few such folks in Russia and, since they were not getting much traction with the Russian “simpletons”, they reached out to a much more gullible audience: pro-Russians in the West.
And that strategy worked.
Not totally, but MUCH better than trying to get anything done inside Russia.
The Western PSYOPs, of course, gave the 6th columnists a quiet and indirect, but devastatingly effective support. And that is the combo we are now facing. I will try to sum it up in a table:
Criteria | NATO+Russian 6th column | The very few |
Money | billions of dollars | donations |
Exposure | US run IT sector | bans everywhere |
Goal |
elicit strong emotions | understanding |
Argument | simple | complex |
Required level of expertise | none | high |
Intellectual energy and creativity required by proponents |
none, NATO PSYOPs supply all “arguments” in the form of slogans and talking points | demanding and exhausting |
Governmental support | high | inadequate at “best” (think RT here!) |
Corporate support | high | non-existing |
Career prospects for proponents |
excellent | suicidal |
Financial prospects for proponents |
excellent | very modest at best |
We can see that this is a totally unequal fight from the get go.
But there is more to it.
The proverbial pro-Russian Westerner
Egos. How do you feel the folks who caved to the Asch conformity felt after discovering that not only were they wrong, they we SO wrong that then even had hallucinations? Pretty bad, of course.
Which brings me to the proverbial pro-Russian Westerner who, quite innocently, fell prey to the combined efforts of the planetary conformity experiment executed by NATO and with full support of the Russian 6th columnists?
How do you think they will feel once they realize not only that they have been cleverly played, but that by their actions they have HURT, not helped, Russia? They will feel awful, especially if they have a notion that they are expert enough to comment on these issues.
The sad, but very human, truth is that
for many (not all, time will show) “proverbial pro-Russian Westerners” a Russian defeat is psychologically preferable to a Russian triumph IF Russia is led to that triumph by Putin.
Simply put, if “Putin” wins, then they were conned. This is especially devastating with folks who are insecure or have a big ego. In fact, if anything, insecure folks with big egos see this entire SMO as a fantastic opportunity to be accepted again in the “comme il faut media”, including RT.
There are also putatively “pro-Russian” websites and individuals out there who, basically, sold out to specific interest groups and the latter are very much on the fence about which side to support. At worst, they are Western funded (even when they deny it) agents provocateurs.
At this point, I have to apologize for the length of this text (already over 3250 words at this point!), but I am not even done yet!
This is the “power of FUD”: you cannot debunk slogans with other slogans, at least not when you are the infinitely weaker party in the informational space. That is why trolls are so effective, it takes them infinitely less energy to spread FUD than for us to debunk them.
That is a reality we won’t change and we have to accept.
[Sidebar: just to give you an idea of the vast the range of NATO PSYOPs can be, I will give you two extremes I personally observed: on one hand, we have bots who try to post comments every day in spite of the fact that they have been banned years ago already and that their comments (almost) never pass moderation. So these trolls don’t even *care* if anybody reads them, all they care is “fulfilling a quota of posts”, this is certainly true of AIs, but also some paid humans. On the other end of the spectrum, I now clearly see something rather interesting: there are a number of trolls who first tried to post a number of putatively pro-Russian and even pro-Putin comments, which they did, and who expected that to give them at least some degree of protection against bans, which it did not. This is a much more sophisticated approach, yet I have seen it personally in several cases. Yes, there are “pre-positioned trolls” just like we now can all see that there were “pre-positioned fake pro-Russian websites” out there. These were only “activated” on D day and hour H: the initiation of the SMO.]
I will now finally address my main argument:
Russian military victories are seriously undermind by the pathetic Russian PSYOPs
And just to clarify, I am not only saying that NATO PSYOPs are hurting the Russian society, I am also saying that they are now clearly hurting the Russian soldiers doing the fighting and the entire military effort!
It is often said that armies are the product of a specific society, and I agree with that. It I submit that it is clear that the Russian society is susceptible to FUD. I also submit that a lot of good people in Russia and in the West are fed up with the way the Russian government treats them and, frankly, I wholeheartedly agree with them.
It’s not “just” that RT online is clearly run by Atlantic Integrationists (at best!), but the mountain anger in the Russian society with the entire informational space. I am sure that we can find people out there who think that Konashenkov is an effective spokesman, but I am also sure of two things: they are in the minority and I sure disagree with them.
What I often read in the Russian blogosphere is this: “stop treating us as children, you can trust us with the truth!“. And while I totally understand that military secrets must be kept secret, I also believe that ONLY secrets should be kept secret. IF the Russian government, including the Russian military, want the support of the Russian civil society, they MUST stop treating that Russian civil society as if it was solely composed of enemies, imbeciles and children. If not – there will be consequences, possibly severe ones.
This is especially important if we realize that there are seven different wars taking place at the same time:
- The SMO to denazify and demilitarize the Ukrainian armed forces
- The war to liberate and protect the Donbass
- The war to defeat NATO in the Ukraine
- The (as of yet) unnamed but obviously existing strategic operation to defeat NATO, militarily and politically
- The war to remove the threat/risks of even more wars against Russia
- The war to liberate Europe from the AngloZionist yokes (yes, two separate yokes)
- The economic and political “war” to create a multinational and “multi-model” international world order in which all countries are accepted as fully sovereign and the relations between these sovereign countries are regulated by international law
The first phase was almost over in a few weeks, but then NATO began to print billions of dollars to inject into the war (reminder: the US alone is spending 228 million dollars PER DAY on the Ukraine!) Hence the “resurrecting” aircraft (rotary and fixed wing), artillery batteries, air defense systems, supplies, etc.
In terms of manpower, the Nazis can count on almost limitless “meat” to throw at the Russians, and they have successfully kept at least some well trained forces. The most dangerous development, however, is that it appears that NATO countries have run out of properly trained “Ukrainians” (many of them are not), and that they have now decided to operate a lot NATO hardware by sending PMCs (not really new) and even NATO forces disguised as PMCs and “advisors”!
Oh I can hear the choice of sweet voices singing to me “but Kiev threw all they had at these suicidal counter-attacks, the entire NATO military (because that is what this is now) will crumble in days or weeks!!!“. Hey, I SURE hope so. But can we or, for that matter, the RGS “bet the farm” on that?
I don’t think so.
Not only that, but all the evidence shows that the US and NATO are, indeed, “betting the farm” right now, and God only knows what these shaitans (literally) are capable of next!
There is no limit to their hate. And they know they are betting the farm.
Now is the time to be more cautious than ever and not make rosy assumptions.
True, militarily, the US and NATO don’t stand a chance. But is that good enough?
I don’t think so. While these two cannot “win”, they still can extract a huge price from the inevitable Russian military victory. Just look at the rumors about a possible mobilization in Russia. Short of a fullscale NATO intervention, Russia has no need for any mobilization: it would only create panic and chaos, while “plugging holes with meat” is a NATO tactic, not a Russian one. IF, and that is a big if, the RGS decides that it needs more forces (manpower and/or gear), it can get what it needs from the standing Russian armed forces. But think for a second in terms of not even PYSOPS, but simple clickbaiting. Which headlines will get the most clicks:
- Russia might mobilize, sources say (love that “sources say” thing)
- Russia currently has the manpower and gear needed for the current stage of the SMO
I think that the answer is obvious. And I am telling you something I know for a fact: many pro-Russian Westerners are only in this for the money (or visibility, which is the same). I won’t list them, on principle, but most readers already know who these guys are.
From the list of “seven wars” I made above, only the very first one was won. And it was a short lived victory.
Russia still has to win the other 6, and that will take many months and, for some, years.
Could there be a sudden collapse of the West somewhere down the road? Sure. I personally cannot even imagine what the EU will look by next Spring. But we cannot simply assume that.
In other words, while US/NATO PSYOPs might not win the war for the Neocons, it might prove an absolutely phenomenal force multiplier (see here for a discussion) for the efforts of the combined West & associated colonies. In other words, countering the US/NATO ought to be a strategic goal for the entire Russian government.
Now, let me ask you – do you feel that the entire Russian government has set such a strategic goal?
I sure don’t.
What I can already submit now is that the well-known “fog of war” has been massively enhanced by the Internet and modern PSYOPs while, at the same time, military operations have become much more complex, especially one like the SMO.
By the way – have Russians made mistakes? OF COURSE they have, try assembling 100 equipped men somewhere and YOU will make mistakes :-) In the military, mistakes come with the territory, literally, and they include such things as friendly fire, poor planning, incompetent officers (they will always exist!) and even major miscalculations. The problem is not in making mistakes, the problem is when an incompetent Russian government does absolutely *nothing* halfway credible to prevent Western PSYOPs from blowing these mistakes out of any semi-reasonable proportion (my favorite are all the “strategic” this or that constantly spewed by ignoramuses!). By the way, one man tried: Ramzan Kadyrov. To those who speak Russian I recommend to listen his rather emotional message here: https://t.me/RKadyrov_95/2810 (it is small consolation for me to hear that he is as frustrated as I am).
There is even a few in Russia who want to replace Shoigu with Kadyrov. That is obvious overkill and quite silly, but I sure would advise the Russian government to accept Kadyrov’s offer to train those Russians who “don’t get” information operations in Chechnia. Absolutely! Send them, beginning with Konashenkov!
Conclusion – we are very alone
So here we are, quite alone. And by “we” I don’t mean some kind of royal (or academic) pluralis majestatis, I mean we who are trying hard to help Russia in what any moral person ought to see as one of the most “just wars” in history (if only because it is an existential war for the survival of the peoples of Russia). We are “psychologically shot at” (remember, Asch!) from all sides. Our enemies have means that we can’t even really imagine, many of our so-called “friends” are nothing of the sort, and the Russian government is very much part of the problem, not the solution.
Personally, I can hardly convey to you how frustrating it is for me to observe all this without having the means to do anything about it. Frankly, the trolls are not the worst of it. The worst is to think about Russian leaders (civilian and military), high ranking officials, decision-makers, corporate leaders, public figures and many others who do have the means to help, but who do absolutely nothing or, even worse, *pretending* do be trying.
In the Soviet times (which some are nostalgic for) there used to be a saying “the government pretends to pay us and we pretend to work“. Well, the Russian government sure pays all these powerful figures a lot, and they are *still* pretending.
And the price for that will be paid in Russian (and Ukrainian!) blood and tears.
That is all I had to say for today.
One of the submission guidelines of this blog read as follows: “please do not worry too much about your knowledge of the English language. English is my 3rd or 4th language (out of six) and I make tons of mistakes: grammar, typos, verb coordination, etc. Contents are far more important than form, so worry first about contents and second about form. After all, this blog is about ideas, not language. Try to make your text clear and understandable, but don’t try to sound like Shakespeare (it won’t work anyway).” Well, today I will apply it to myself. I tried to get as much info across as I had energy for. I don’t have the energy to edit such a long text for anything except content, and I may well have made silly mistakes anyway.
So I ask for your understanding.
Thank you!
Andrei
PS: for other options take, please
Read Big Serge: https://bigserge.substack.com/p/special-military-operation-season
And watch Andrei Martyanov‘s latest:
And for those (few) who had the time, energy and courage to read it all, here is something to cheer you up:
Pro-Russian mass demonstrations in Serbia
A WWII war song with English subtitles:
Thank you Andrei for you sober thoughts. My biggest takeaway is looking at the consequences, which is one of the basic cybernetic principles (for anyone interested in cybernetics I recommend the works of William Ross Ashby, Gregory Bateson, Stafford Beer, and Norbert Wiener, there are other notable cyberneticians but I haven’t read their works yet that’s why I’m not naming them), in order to figure out HOW (I don’t know how to italicize) something operates, without knowing WHY (i.e. it’s internal mechanism, in this case being the plans of the RGS) it operates in this way.
It would be interesting to me a fly on the wall of the RGS meetings, but we don’t know why they make the decisions they do. We know the have the intelligence information from the battle field we don’t have. There are many other factors at play we don’t see that they do see. So we endeavor to persevere as they do.
I am also wondering what the deep state in the West, are planning in the next month to avoid catastrophic losses in the upcoming elections on November 1 in the United States.
Beyond the usual massive voting fraud that they have run for years and have continually refined and adjusted, of course.
I’d imagine when the scope of the disastrous consequences of this counterattack start to trickle out despite their total blockade of negative news from Ukraine, they will do their usual idiotic, poorly planned psyop to trick the mainstream babies in the US.
ALLOW ME TO SPEAK on behalf of all good people who live in Zone B, who desperate for peace, prosperity, bright future for our children, and who had enough with the western imperialism hegemony.
For us, IT DOES NOT MATTER if Russia losing now, but it does matter HOW Russian, the Army, and Putin WILL END all of this.
With minimum force, Russia turned the tide in Syrian War, it took time of course, and lives. While this SMO just about 7 (seven) months old, and The Army is yet to use more than 10% of its firepower. People expected quick victory and hells of collateral-damages for the Nazis and its supporters (precisely US-NATO textbook), their disappointments are a normal response.
People HAD ENOUGH of war, people want peace, that’s it, people don’t ask more, people only want to see the end of United States along with NATO and Israel who are the cause of misery on this world. And we see, only Russia and Putin given the power by GOD to end the evil, NOW.
Thanks.
Hey, Indonesia stand with Rossiya,
“People expected quick victory …”
People who have never fought in a war.
People who have never crouched terrified in a ditch trying to cover their babies with their bodies.
People whose experience of war was filmed in Hollywood.
People who have never seen a Russian or Chinese war film.
Or Bog forbid a Vietnamese war film.
The americans killed about one third of Vietnamese people, men, women, children, babies.
And a bunch of water-buffalo who just happened to standing around.
Also… a bunch of american boys and girls who just happened to be born in the wrong place and time.
People who don’t know what “victory” costs.
I have not seen any Indonesian war movies. Are there any honest Indonesian war movies that you can (safely) recommend?
If Russia had launched a blitzkrieg attack it would have been a quick victory. Russia chose a limited war.
For the Ash conformity experiment i have to add a discovery by Prof Dr. Mausfeld of the uni Kiel: EVERYTHING(!), a human reads and understand is BY THE POINT IT WAS READ IS IMMEDIATELY DECIPHERED by his own moral code and knowledge AND OVERWRITES THE ALREADY ESTABLISHED BELIEVES to a certain point.
So EVERYTHING INFLUENCE YOU, and the only counter against that is to reinforce you old believes/knowledge. This is why the old sentence “If you tell a lie often enough it becomes true” is actually true.
Given what we known about the PSYOP machine of the West as what you have presented here and keeping in mind that this machine is already running pretty much since 1945, it wonders me not why the Russians loose the “Propaganda War”
Many people are not even aware about this crucial fact about their minds and therefore don’t understand that the only solution to NOT be influenced by the PSYOP Machine is not to participate in it.
Everybody how is aware of it has stopped entirely watching CNN BBC or any other Western Media Outlet for that matter and also have stopping to interact with Facebook, instagramm or any other of those networks.
i have a coworker how is totally caught in this misty web and totally believes it. And even i can sometimes caught me thinking about “what if they true?” despite the factual knowledge i already obtain about a certain matter. This media Machine is a Hell of a Propaganda machine and i waiting for the time they start punishing people for watching RT. That’s the point i will seriously start to thinking how i can get out of this mess.
Please do not use caps – its screaming. Any further comment in caps will go to trash. Mod.
“If you tell a lie often enough it becomes true.”
No. If you tell a lie often enough it is still a lie. It does not “become true, it may be believed to be true by those who are too ignorant or lazy to continue to seek truth in what they read or hear.
Kind regards.
Yes, let’s retrofit the old saw: “If you tell a lie often enough, a whole lot of lemmings believe it.”
Mods: yeah sorry, but i wanted to stress that point because it is the important part.
Ad: “ignorant or lazy” or maybe plain to stressed out to have the time and energy to search that. like the saker already said, it’s very hard to do research on your own especially if you not trained in and under constant fired of an machine like we have in the West.
i doing geopolitics as a hobby since 8 Years…and hell i had only (!) in the Syrian complex at least somewhat of an understanding. But since the Russians “freeze” the complex in 2018 there i have not even that anymore.
The ukrainain complex i not even try, especially since the Psyop Machine of ours it in Overdrive since Feb. if i not trained in being an proper strategic analyst, i would be played like a fiddle by them.
And now imagine someone how coming home from a Day of hard stressed Work…no they don’t sit down and do Origin source research like you have to do. And they hearing constantly “the russian did that, the russian do this” non all aviable channels and at some point they start to thing “maybe the russian do at least ‘something'” and due to their hard work weeks and months they never revisit this thought and drifting ever since so slightly towards “the Russians are evil”. Have worked wonders during the Cold War.
i can testify that in the normal radio in Germany already tell their listeners outright lies and the people gobble that up, an ex-arty officer of the Germany army believing this stuff already, and my very Coworker also. Both a vivd BILD readers and i have stop even to try to tell them a different view. i have more pressing matters at hand on daily base (i have also a stressfull Work day) as to convince the people around me. Also the Media already has steps to frame those as “truther” already.
Is it one thing to fight a fight you may can Win, but a totally different to start a fight you already have lost before you even known that you may have to fight it.
@EVERYBODY: as expected the usual gang of trolls (see here: http://thesaker.is/a-short-vademecum-for-aspiring-trolls/) has immediately pounced (you can tell they monitor our feeds 24/7!)
The mods caught some, I caught some others.
But I fully expect the flood gates of trolls to be all over the Saker blog again (along with IT attacks to boot!).
I will try to keep the comment section as sane as possible, and so will the mods.
But, please, understand that we are only a few people and that we are REALLY pissing off a lot of people (our readership is through the roof and up to ridiculously high levels).
And, again, I expect that the various types of attacks against the Saker blog will not only continue, but get much worse.
So I ask for your patience and understanding.
Andrei
Alone? True, there is very few of us, even though it is not really a fight to save Russia, but to save the world for humanity. There should be many many more of us.
yeah? then were is everybody?
Maybe all in Zone B?
@ The Saker on September 12, 2022 · at 6:54 pm EST/EDT
yeah? then were is everybody?
Maybe all in Zone B?
—————————-
No, they are in zom-bie land.
(Couldn’t avoid it, sorry. Need some humor after reading your write up.)
Lone Wolf
Sandbagging. Or, those who hang in to listen and learn stuff.
Chris – we are in total agreement with your point: God forbid, if Russia loses this, it will be a catastrophe not only for the Russian people, but for the entire world.
Since the US de-industrialized itself, multiple millions have lost jobs because the US overlords despised paying labor costs. During Covid, these sharks cut even more jobs. All the while, the US Financial World has advanced with untold billions given to the US/UK/EU financial aristocrats.
It’s those few who will unleash incredible disasters on China, Eurasia as a whole, and Latin American/African nations who are trying to escape the death trap of the US’ IMF, World Bank.
The world’s population will be turned into debt slaves just like they’ve done in the US. The UK/EU independent shops/businesses, public health care will all be destroyed while the aristocrats move in “privatize” every square meter of what used to belong to individuals.
Currently, the US impoverished citizens are nearly 40 million.
Imagine, that same scenario in Russia, China, Western Europe, UK citizenry and all the other citizens of the world. Nirvana for these sharks; debt peonage for the majority.
American citizens have been victimized by our own Intelligence Community PSYOP for over a hundred years.
Today Joe Biden told those few brain dead who gather to listen.
“Biden in Massachusetts says: While US is in a Recession: We’ve Gone From “Economic Crisis to Economic Resurgence”
75% of Americans know full well nothing could be further from the truth.
My point American patriots pay Zero attention to Western MSM.
Russia doesn’t do so good at PSYOP because you gotta be good at lying to excel at PSYOP.
God forbid that Russia lose; Russia loses we all lose.
Not sure if anyone has already posted this but the current situation is all planned in the RAND report January 25th 2022:
– using the Green party in Germany to destroy Germany!!?
– stop NS2
– US obviously upset because we voted Brexit
– using Ukraine to force Russia into a war against NATO (US/UK/EU)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QacSGqrF5c4
0:18 / 25:34
SAINT PETERSBURG
❗❗MUST WATCH👀 – CONFIDENTIAL Rand Report EXPOSED! ‘Weakening Germany & Strengthening The U.S.’
RAND Report “Weakening Germany and Strengthening the U.S”
https://disk.yandex.com/d/jxD85BQemPfz1A
Documentation: A confidential RAND report dated 01/25/2022:
https://en.weltexpress.info/2022/09/08/documentation-a-rand-report-dated-01-25-2022/
Seems too good to be true. Is it a fake? I could only access the first page, but the wording seems a little odd, and there is no attribution to authors on the front page. According to my gut feeling, it seems to have been written post facto.
I don’t know of one single person who believes what the US media says about anything. Psyops be damned. These are temporary mind control attempts that wear off quickly and some new lie must to be introduced to replace the discredited one. The US just keeps showing its abject desperation with Psyop after Psyop.
Reality always shows up sooner or later and when it comes to war reality will always triumph.
Saker, I am amazed at how much emphasis you put on this. But maybe you are correct.
The West will create a virtual reality that Ukraine has won even when the country is reduced to a cinder or few smoldering away somewhere West of Eden along with James Dean and his Porsche.
I think most the the world doesn’t believe a word of it. And, there is little we can do about it. I’m long done with trying to change minds. That is why we are at war.
We carry on best we can.
“I don’t know of one single person who believes what the US media says about anything.”
Oh, but they do — tens of millions of bovine believers . . . just consider how they were played like a yo-yo with Covid. They believe and want to believe.
And unlike in the USSR Westerners actually pay for the propaganda.
Andrei, Your English is masterful bwt. This was a powerful piece and I learned a great deal as I usually do even though I have a professional military background. I share your frustration as I observe exactly what you describe particularly in the last few days. There are several platforms that allow commentary that I visit for news and the main part of people commenting are not only unaware but do not even allow the possibility that the conversation is being shaped sometimes by the crashing tides of the mob but certainly as well by the corps of psychological operations professionals that are fully engaged in the conflict in Ukraine. As you fully know, the energy generated from these far reaching virtual public platforms is a force in the “real” world as well and can influence battlefield outcomes. Aside from trying to remind people here and there as I can that they are part of the battlespace I can’t do much from here.
for those who haven’t seen this… Although a little ham-fisted, it is thought provoking and a weapon in its own right. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VA4e0NqyYMw
Yeah? I even managed a typo in the TITLE (now corrected).
No, I am a very messy writer, alas :-(
But thank you for the kid words anyway!
“kid words”?
I thought he was serious.
“Kid words” was typo instead of kind words. Elementary…
I think more credit should be given to pro-Russian westerners! If the BBC weather channel/forecasters stated it was raining, I’d check to see if a dog wasn’t pissing on my shoes.
Putin is the architect who put Russia back on the map, saved it/the world, from the Anglo-Zio-satanic forces.
If he’s too much of a gentleman to fight fire with fire, then so be it and we’ll accept a more Stalin type figure, just for the duration of the SMO.
PSYOPS hmm, 80% of the western general public are complete morons who’ve never read a book since they’ve left school, I give you, however, they could care less about WAR or geopolitics, just their next FIX (Rent-Paycheck- Meal-Drink).
The PSYOPS mean next to nothing to anyone other than the Enemy so let’s give pro-Russian westerners more credit.
Okay, but what about the impact on the Russian general public?
What about the Ukrainian general public?
1) The author stated that 65-70% follow Putin blind
2) There’s nothing general about the Ukrainian public; they’re either western braindead, Nazi braindead, Pro-Russian or hoping for any resolution to live a normal life.
If Russia weren’t gifted with an abundance of energy resources and fertile/mineral land then the 10-15% vested western interest would cease to hate Russia overnight. Their whole existence depends on control of resources in order to rule over The Great Unwashed. The majority of this 10% + despise, have much contempt their own citizens.
This whole shebang is first & foremost a coming Class War. Time is not the Anglo-Zio-Corporates friend; Russia called their bluff and they had a busted flush in their hand.
Anything other than a Russian/Allied victory doesn’t bear thinking about for the vast majority on Earth. If there is life on another planet then I know they are also on the side of Good over Evil.
‘would cease to hate Russia overnight’ – no. This is not just a physical war but spiritual. Part of the latter is the schism the west – think vatican (fjb is a catholic…when he is not a zionist) – caused in ukraine regarding the Orthodox church.
The vatican hates the Russian Orthodox church, its wealth & influence etc, and wants that for itself, and if it can’t have it, then to destroy it. Actually, at the same time. Yes, that doesn’t quite make sense, but the devil is out of his mind knowing his time is getting shorter and shorter before Revelation 20:10, so he wants to destroy as much of creation on earth as he can.
Ok I am a minority. I think of Konashenkov as a high level top professional who provide in simple terns facts.
Which is what I need.
Is it Konashenkov’s communication fault that he cant beat Sber Bank’s Herman Gref’s 100% globalist influence on the Russian public? In my opinion not.
Something long overdue is still not coordinated and dealt with at the top.
Okay. and that is also the opinion of the Russian MoD
Kadyrov and I disagree :-)
But I hope that I am wrong…
Konashenkov always sounds like a “dumb-dumb” who reads a text out for “retards”.
Instead of selecting a charismatic Army-Major who has good communication skills, they of course pick the least charismatic guy who sounds like a “text-to-speech-software” from the early 2000s. Just another PR-disaster…
:-) thats exactly why I like Konashenkov.
Konashenkov is military factual as he should be. He is good for the military teams because he provides them with serious facts plus factual evaluations of the enemy, but he is not good for perception managers and social engineers.
Military is dealing with physical facts on the ground. It is simply dangerous to put false manipulated psy-ops, drugs or a charismatic Hollywood figure into the teams.
In my simple opinion it is why the Russians are so professional in their access to the job, and why the other side will loose.
Whatever, we are on the same side. Let us hope the best for our team.
Konshenkov is the guy most highly credible and give him 5 stars for being exactly who he is.
But when Ze opens his mouth, I want to laugh…
Charismatic guys with good communication skills are a western msm invention for the “smoke and mirrors” angle.
Exactly why I like the guy! Mint presentation, hansom soldier laying out facts. Don’t need “the first ever” trans woman/man providing their “truths” (“Truth over facts, man!” – Biden) placed there not for their merits but because of pretence of “inclusivity”.
You haven’t considered that he was picked (and coached to speak that way, and given those geeky glasses to wear) to elicit a certain effect? I would say he is perfectly suited to his role as a straight-faced mouthpiece for the general staff’s party line. If they wanted a fast-talking charismatic individual, they would have gotten one. We should ask ourselves: why isn’t the ministry of defense playing the psyops game? Or are they- in a way that isn’t readily apparent?
To put it another way: under what conditions can victory be made to look like failure in the domain of 5th (or 6th) generation asymmetrical warfare in the age of social media?
Ivan Saker can answer better than I, because I know Russia can do this game too. But I see the Kremlin team being selected for their qualifications only and solely and not for their appearance.
They are themselves as they are with personal soul and spirit, have been working hard to obtain these qualifications. They are not pretenders as is the Western style.
Head and shoulders above what the US, UK, CNN, Canada etc use.
Western psyops attack Putin and portray him as an absolute dictator responsible for everything.
Do you counter this more effectively by a detailed portrayal of Russian governance or by a mirror attack on Western leaders?
You cannot counter propaganda by defence and self justification.
The problem is inserting propaganda in the small chinks left in the Western media wall.
You counter psyops with two weapons
1) being right
2) being truthful
Ideally yes, I agree.
But unfortunately propaganda works best on the subconscious, so you need a very short message, which may necessitate promulgating a different truth rather than making a long rebuttal of a lie.
Propaganda does not work at the intellectual/logical level, it works at the emotional level.
I agree with your implication that it is desirable not to stoop to the moral depths in which the West appears to dwell.
Next question.
Who in the West represents the most effective target and how do you reach them?
please tell us!
The Russian Military need counter propaganda to protect morale.
Democrat voters in the USA are the ideal enemy target.
The Western propaganda narrative that “Putin is responsible for the war crimes committed on Ukrainian civilians by Ukrainian troops when the Russians withdraw”, is best countered by;
‘The British Prime Minister encouraged British mercenaries to fight in Ukraine and is responsible for any atrocities committed by them.” Likewise for US, Polish,Etc mercenaries.
Pin the blame where it belongs.
Saker: Being on the receiving end of the combined West abuses of anything Chinese, I would like to list some of our observations on Western anti-Chinese PSYOPS:
1. Anything negative about China, expand and exaggerate, by official and MNM accounts;
2. Anything positive about China, ignore:
3. Occupy any MNM site and pounce on any pro-China comments; Trolling in groups, one losing any argument, more jump in and change the discussion;
4. Create non-existent narratives, with the anti-China slant as goal;
5. Anything negative about the combined West, ignore;
6. Manipulate the editorial power to add anti-China slant to any report. There were cases that the by-lines of news titles stated anti-China bylines which were never discussed in the news articles.
Our conclusion has been that be yourself, know what is the message, and pound your messaging hard. To hell with any moralizing comments. Because these moralizing trolls don’t look into their own mirror and they are ruthless selfish axe-grinders.
Thanks KitaySupporter.
Maybe Zone A deserves what is coming….
this comment has been flagged as of little/no value (possibly troll) by the saker
There is one significant difference between Chinese and European people: We are Christians, and we need morality. Following Jesus’ path and serving God was what manifested all the beauty you still see in Europe. But we’ve lost our faith, and look where it got us.
Chinese are rather like “where there is space, there is use” (Tao Te Ching, chapter 11). That still fascinates me, but it perfectly describes why Chinese people are how they are. They love collectivism and uniformity. We don’t like those concepts, because they kill the Divine Spark within us.
Our morality do not come from religion, but in our faith in ourselves. Believe about us what you will, because our source of morality is beyond the worldview of most Europeans.
While Europeans like to claim they “don’t like those concepts” (collectivism and uniformity), joehannes, it’s been a very long time since Europeans have displayed any ‘spark’ reflecting anything other than meek and passive acceptance of a uniformity demanded and executed from on high.
Ordinary Europeans not prone to dreams of a re-ascendant European fascism are being ground to dust by those appealing to their ‘dislike of collectivism and uniformity’. Western ‘belief’ in ‘individual freedumbs’ and ‘representative democracy’ is, without doubt, one of the greatest cons ever conceived and operated.
Ergo, on a list of “Victims of Western Psyop Mastery”, ‘ordinary’ Europeans, Yanks and Brits sit right up top.
No, no. They have had collectivism and uniformity beaten into them. Europe needs to get off its high horse, too. It wasn’t too long ago collectivism and uniformity were the rule there for the same reason.
There was a period when European socialists were implementing good polices. The NHS in in Britain. The institution of national health insurance in the Netherlands after WW2. The Dutch bureaucrats who implemented the Nazi ordered Bismarkian national health insurance noticed it was a good policy and worked to get it continued after WW2. The pregnancy leave policies in France . Tuition free college attendance,, for a while more effective environmental actions. Then there was the corruption of the socialist parties. The undermining and blackmail by the US and Israel of governmental administrators. Corbyn seemed to me to be a sincere and able individual especially compared to Boris Johnson or Liz Truss. Do you think that Zionist interests had anything to do with his ouster as leader of Labor? The Greens in Germany Lol. I used to think that industrialists in Germany had immense power but ….Sweden used to be thought of as one the best places to live. Now the Europeans have self inflicted the loss of their life of abundance. their WEF leaders anyway.
European morality: commit actual genocide against native peoples, enslave africans, force indians to grow opium which you steal to impose on chinese, all in the name of God, JC, the monarch of the day, whatever.
I was born and forced into that perversion – it made me mentally sick until I started writing.
Chinese morality: raise 800+ million of your own people out of poverty, engage in “win win” projects with global south countries, no limits alliance with Russia to protect Donbass people from genocide by the Ukronazi proxies.
It sounds like the Australian media to a tee. One does whay you can to counter it, but it’s like pissing against the wind at times. Àlthough..there is a discernable groundswell out there of people who are sick of the constant attacks and deprecation, of China mainly, but the Russian situation as well…
It very much does sound like the Strayan media, Jon. And, like most other places, one needs to get out to the fringes to find a rational and reasoned alternative. Just today;
“America the great? How the decline of the US will affect Australian policy”
“A new world order is emerging and Australia has some decisions to make”
“The Defence Strategic Review: What suffering will we accept to keep America in first place?”
“In her ‘devotion to duty’ the Queen sacked an Australian PM described by Philip as a ‘socialist arsehole’”
All found here – https://johnmenadue.com/
While the ‘flavour’ is very much Strayan, I’d be very surprised if other Westerners here didn’t find those offerings very familiar to their own experiences.
Just like the alternatives are emerging for swift and for card payment gateways, similarly other alternatives will emerge for many of the social media tools.
China has already made a walked garden for its internet and various tools.
Similarly India introduced UPI( universal payment interface) and various products based off it like RUPAY etc. In three short years they have taken about 60+% market share from Visa and Master card .
Now few countries have asked for the technology and system so they can replicate in their countries.
Over period of time the collective west will be left to it’s own devices in it’s own walled garden
Imagine companies like google, Meta , Twitter or their successors no longer being allowed or simply out competed by the Zone B companies.
Who will be then the West left influencing?
These last days were very intense and I was closely following the news coming from Balakleya. I was worried, of course, but since the beginning I trusted Russian military leadership. I found here, in your analysis, you and Matyanov’s, and in Brian Bertelic’s the confirmation of my own feelings and impressions of what was going on. But following some telegram channels was truly exhausting, because the people I trusted since the beginning of the SMO, suddenly began showing another… Side, so to speak. I’m wondering now If I wasn’t following those 6th columns that you often talk about. It’s really creepy.
So creepy.
I wish the saker would list the ‘for profit’ faux Ru guys, if for no other reason than to save time and avoid the mind fckery.
Nonetheless, it is important for people to go through the process of discernment because the Ops aren’t going to get any less intense or invasive.
Yes… Well what we definitely have are enormous bot/troll armies on the NATO team, it’s exactly like that famous experiment, where an unknowing person is seated amoungst a group of actors, everybody is given the same card which is obviously red, however all the actors will claim it’s blue. 65% of people will go along with the group, only 35% will have the presence to resist.
But I believe this is fragile. Once you realize how easily you can be tricked, it gets harder to pull the wool over our eyes. Or we develop elaborate self defense, as under totalitarianism. Living double realities, appearing to conform, but leading secret lives. The banning of Russian media, has led to increased following of Russian media in the West. VPNs and telegram have exploded in popularity.
There was no grassroots movement standing with Ukraine. It was instantly manufactured and astroturfed. There were always more actors in the room than unsuspecting public.
I am in the belly of Western Europe, I’ve seen those Ukrainian flags come down one by one.
I know we each know at least one fanatic, Russophobe, who wants to see Russia destroyed, or at least believes that Russia is evil etc. And then without really thinking about it, wants Russia destroyed, the kind that act shocked when you point it out to them. But even from the beginning the very intensity of the information war alienated most people.
It’s because it relies on polarization, with us or against us to gain emotional traction. Most people are emotionally exhausted by this tug of war, they simply avoid conflict and become disaffected, refusing to tune in. While others dig in.
This is why the neo cons/ NATO need to keep up the intensity. The consensus isn’t real and there are so many lies, and so much negative consequences for the majority, that it won’t take much to spark massive popular dissent.
But this onslaught has a corrosive effect the more it is applied, the less effective it will be.
It might seem like small numbers, but tipping points aren’t reached with majorities. Simply critical mass.
I feel lucky that there are some true experts out there whose analysis has been consistently accurate. Listening to the voices of reason, the ones calmly pointing to the facts, sincerely helps to return a sense of perspective.
I have to admit my heart was broken by the abandonment of Izyum. It was a betrayal of trust. The purges now… it’s unforgivable. We have to remember that’s NATO, and their Nazi puppets. Not Russia. But still…
This real emotion and sense of betrayal can be amplified to extend to questioning the whole of Russia’s campaign, and that is what these 6th column bots/ trolls are doing now on Russian and pro Russian sites. There was tangible relief when Russia knocked out Ukrainian internet for a while.
Electricity/Gas is mightier than the Sword & Pen combined.
In Russian we say “the refrigerator beats the TV” :-)
The problem is no one really knows or will know the Russian General staffs plans. Personally, I think they got caught with their pants down. Many here forget that the entire intel capabilities of NATO are being used against Russia, including the USA. This is a huge front to protect, and the holes were found and capitalized on for now. I am doing my best to be objective regardless of which side people are on. There is no doubt in my mind that Russia will retaliate and hopefully do so strategically.
The longer this SMO goes on the more lives will be lost. Already atrocities are coming in from source on the ground of the ukies killing people with Russian passports.
I think the Russian response this time should be decisive and crushing to Ukraine. Otherwise, the Russian military will be seen as weak and ineffective. No matter what is stated by either side only time will reveal the plans. Do not get upset with me please I am just pointing this out.
Your point of view is shared by many people, and that is what I see as a major Russian failing.
I will say that I have confidence in that the pace of destruction of NATO forces in the Ukraine is already very high and will rise sharply.
The current pace of Russian Aerospace force activities is intense, as are missile and artillery strikes.
As for the atrocities, I think I addressed that adequately in my text.
There is one strong argument against the pants down theory: All those commanders still have their jobs. CinCs fire incompetent generals in wartime. I do not pretend to know what happens next. Anybody who does is pulling a psyop. If Putin does not fire one general you may sleep better.
I think your question assumes there is a defense against such measures. There is not and there never has been since the beginning of foreign asset seizures. I sleep well on that one knowing such actions are not permanent and are in the rule unwound to make the rightful owner whole.
I’d like to say with regards to the PSYOPS (PO) war going on in this conflict: I perceive that there are two distinctly different PO wars being conducted. Being American and living in the US, it is quite easy for me to recognize and understand the West’s (US’s) PO operation in the Ukrainian conflict because it’s the same operation they have used on US citizens for at least two decades, probably longer. Their strategic operation can be boiled down to “Lie big; lie constantly; censor and shout down opposing voices and sources of info in order to A) create mass confusion so even discussion of events is impossible because of contending perspectives (depending on which lies you believe) and to B) create a false reality in the media zone and to C) keep everyone from focusing on the larger picture of strategic significance and to D) create false characterizations of the particular enemy’s abilities, rational for action, and tendencies of action. The basic idea of the West’s PO war is to muddy the water completely. And their desire is to overwhelm the opposition with volume and repetition of message.
There is a easy way to counter most of this type of PO which is this: Know that whatever they say, they are lying. Then ask yourself: “Why this particular lie?” in order to postulate possible motivations.
The Russian PO strategy I perceive to be quite different so, yes, if you are judging it by the West’s standards, the Russian PO war is failing abysmally. But I believe that would be a mistake. In my opinion, the Russian military is fighting the PO war, not in a vacuum, but as an integral facet of their overall MILITARY operation. And they are using the West’s PO to their own advantage whenever possible. For example, I believe Russian high command were well aware of the Ukraine build up of forces in the Kharkov region and were also aware of the West’s panicked impulse to achieve some sort of “successful” Kiev offensive. So quietly Russian planners provided a “weak spot” for the West to find which they did and subsequently acted on that finding. Thus the present Kharkov offensive which might have drawn Ukrainian forces out of the wooded areas in which they operated.
The Russian PO uses the TRUTH as much as possible and they do this for a very specific reason: to draw a black and white contrast between themselves and the West. They, I think, believe that this strategy, in the long run, will be more successful with civilian populations both in Ukraine itself but also in Russia and in the West. By telling the truth whenever possible, they are conveying the message that they can be trusted and THAT is a hugely important message. It’s particularly important in the West because it has influenced the choices of media outlets which citizens of the West have gone to for information, i.e. Russian sources and thereby given the East, Western listeners to speak to. When the Russian command cannot reveal the truth for security or strategic reasons, they simply say very little. This is often seen as a PO failure by some of the analysts tracking developments. But, again, I believe it is a mistake to do so because it’s not just what the Russians say that’s important, it’s also the validity of what they say that’s perhaps even more important in winning the information war.
I’ve noticed that occasionally Russian command sometimes “admits” to Ukrainian “victories”. But remember, the Russian PO is also being used to influence Kiev military decisions. This is important. I suppose I’ll sum it up this way: While the West is playing checkers, the Russians are playing chess—it’s an entirely different game. So if you want to understand the Russians’ PO operation, think of a chess board and the PO effort is only one piece among many in this SMO. That’s my opinion, anyway.
Thank you!
I really hope that you are right.
I am signing off for today.
Thank you, Andrei. And thank you for your work here. Be well and peace to you also.
If only they could clone Maria Zhakorova and appoint her as the MOD Spokeswonan…
She is Aways Calm, Cool and Collected. And just as droll as Mr. Lavrov.
She’s as quick witted as a Kinzhal and hits just as hard and just as deep.
Can you imagine?
Dang.
Sigh…..it’s just a crazy dream, I know.
On a personal note, I’ve spray painted my formerly white(LoL!) 1999 Honda CR-V flat black, put a huge white ‘Z’ on the hood, a small one on the back.
Now, ‘Greta’ (named after the Manufactured for Consent WEF Creation to lead the young lemmings off the cliff of Anthropogenic Climate Change Thunberg) looks a bit like a military vehicle, to my eyes anyway.
I painted, in white, on the back window,
” Honk if you are an Enemy of The State”
Slava Russia, Impeach the Pedophile
And the 3 slogans of Big Brother –
War is Peace
Ignorance is Strength
Slavery is Freedom
I regularly bring myself to tears because I want to leave the Land of Sanctions, Chaos and Lies and go to the Donbass to help in the reconstruction. I’m saving every dime and starting to learn Russian. I’ve never wanted something so much in all my 63 years.
Slava Russia
Blessings to All
L
LOL! Thanks Lauren. I enjoyed your comment very much.
Be careful of over identifying yourself….remember what happened to the German lady journalist snd family…Graham Phillips…..the Baltic young lad and famy petsecuted for talking to Lukashenko and had to flee to Belarus….many states in EU ramping up their “persecution” of supporters for Russia….eg illegal to display Z…not going to get easier.
Incressing intensity of events and hysteria against Russia only encourages more populous to go crazy and denounce Stasi style.
“illegal to display Z”
That is so cool! Poor elensky!
Paynes,
You nailed it down, thanks
Thank you, Fortified. I hoped to share a little of my perception to perhaps ease some anxiety.
Im with you here. I am from Europe and caught the Saker site first time for the reasons you mention here.
The Saker article with the bear, wounded and out, describing Russia’s way of exploiting exposing Western own media for the Russian public.
At this time a rare occasion of truth which made me hang on to more Russian info, Putin’s speeches, m.m. So truth works.
The truth really does work if one wants to build trust. I fear, unfortunately, the West does not put much stock in truth or honesty these days.
My thinking is very similar to yours, Paynes. The Western PO mounted against the RF is miniscule cf the long run PO continuing against the West’s own citizens.
In effect, a major part of the reason for the PO being run against the RF is because the one being run against their own citizens is breaking down.
Washington Post in late July;
“Just 16 percent of U.S. adults have “a great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence in newspapers. Things are worse for TV news, at 11 percent.”
I read a while ago that CNN’s audience had halved in just a few years.
So, people turn more and more to social media? Why? They get to shout at passing clouds themselves.
Media have been adapting to the collapse of trust (in them) for decades, by seeking to maximise internal division. The post 9/11 ‘War on Terror’ was a step up in manufacturing not so much ‘consent’, but fear and anxiety among the populace. Once that started to be exposed – in a limited way – trust in the ‘message’ began to erode.
Then, along came the GFC, when ordinary people were further abandoned, as the not so ordinary people helped themselves to what was left, and what was ‘invented’ (by way of ‘wealth’), and the slide in trust accelerated.
And, from then on, it’s been all about maximising internal divisions to feed the fear and anxiety.
Traditional media now sows the seeds, and ‘the socials’ provide the Colosseum for the increasing numbers of ‘polar opposites’ to slug it out.
Consequence? Increasing number of US citizens foresee Civil War 2.0. Will it happen? No idea.
And, happen, or not is not the point, not the ‘objective’.
Having just read of this, I find it relevant to some of what I and some others have had to say about Western PSYOPS;
“Pentagon leaders issued guidance to troops on how to cope with inflation eating their paychecks. Army leaders suggested soldiers and their families consider going on food stamps or talk to an Army-provided financial adviser.”
– Wall Street Journal….a week ago!
Obviously kept nice and quiet – couldn’t have US cits wondering why ~$200m gets sent to Ukriane every day, while their own grunts are being ‘advised’ to use food stamps to feed their families.
It was no secret in 1983 that the grocery store accepting more food stamps than any other in the state of Hawaii was the commissary at Fort Shafter.
It is a national shame and has been for decades. Not letting a good crisis go to waste, the psyops machine could put together a chart of how much welfare you can get while serving in the US military. My God, the Russians may defect.
Very well said! I’m seeing the same thing in terms of the common American citizens losing all confidence in the mainstream media narrative. But I think the undermining in trust has gone well beyond MSM and politics. It appears that all US institutions are losing the confidence of the people for primarily one reason: we realize that at almost every level and in every sector of society we are being given wrong information AND our questioning of those institutions and their info is being dismissed as “dangerous misinformation” without the slightest discussion regarding our concerns. Sometimes we see a politician or governmental official confronted with facts which contradict the politician’s assertion on a particular issue. And what do they do? Without ever addressing the facts raised they sit and without expression on their faces reassert what they’ve stated before as if their “truth” is unquestionable—the end, period! We the citizenry have arrived at the correct conclusion that the institutions we rely on couldn’t care less about our understanding of things when our views don’t align with theirs. It’s their way or the highway. And this causes a lot of frustration for the ordinary person. I know it does for me.
I both agree and disagree, but I’ll make a related point. At the beginning of the SMO everyone was saying how the west was winning the information war and Russia was losing it dismally. Partially true, but misleading in important respects: the false information thrown out by the west was so grossly at odds with reality that the propaganda became unstable: that is, it was so badly off that the west has been catastrophically undermining its credibility, like the boy who cried wolf. And that is right after the covid episode, when the number of people starting to disbelieve western propaganda started rising fast. The lies could be believed for a time, but eventually – unremittingly – the truth must come out (eg with the fall of Azovstahl etc). It is at that point that the previous tactical “success” of the western propaganda starts to bite most severely as strategic failure. When people in the west start rejecting the propaganda the whole house of cards starts to fall. The key word is TRUST – it can collapse suddenly and catastrophically. The western propaganda is so gross (because of its desperation) that trust is being lost fast.
I have to temper that argument with one lingering doubt: quite honestly I cannot get my head around the willingness of people to believe so much obvious deception again and again and again and again and again, without question – the depths of peoples’ stupidity just seems unfathomable sometimes. That said, eventually … after such a long long time … in the case of covid we eventually reached a point where suddenly more and more people were rejecting the lies and questioning everything they were told. The same will certainly happen with the NATO-Russia war. Helped on by hunger, cold and anger directed not at Russia but at the EU elites and at the US – that is part of the Russian PsyOps that Russia has managed with relentless brilliance! Wen it eventually bites, it will bite HARD – like a depth charge slowly, quietly sinking through the water until suddenly it explodes.
I said above that I both agree and disagree with your (Paynes’) thesis. There are several aspects of this which I won’t go into but principally this: as the Saker pointed out Russia has unquestionably failed miserably in their PsyOps in several important respects, and they are unnecessary failures (i.e. notwithstanding the differences in approach that you point out and which I agree with). For example, they should have given strong publicity to their evacuation activities (obviously not from early on when it would undermine the (presumed) bait luring out the enemy into the open; but over the last several days it would certainly not have undermined military operations and it would have strongly mitigated the west’s propaganda and the doubts experienced by so many pro-Russians.
I agree with you that the Russian PsyOps are in important respects long-term strategies relying on truth and most importantly TRUST. But at the same time operations to counter and mitigate the destruction in the shorter term caused by the west’s “battery of lies” campaign are also critically important – they need to complement each other like Yin and Yang.
Thank you for your comment. Very well spoken, by the way. I do understand the argument that Russian PsyOps has not been very, shall we say, “nurturing” towards the general public in their release of information. But my take on why that is the case is that those in charge of releasing information during this SMO are the military and not the civilian government. In Ukraine, we see the opposite and look at what a mess President. Z has made of their messaging. It is horrendous, in my opinion. And it appears to be setting up hurdles for the AFU’s military operations in a significant way.
I think perhaps Russian military and civilian officials embrace the position that the people must understand that this is war, a very, very serious war, and the political sector of Russia, I believe, understands this fully and has made that message clear to their citizenry. I know that historically governments at war have taken it upon themselves to feed their own population “positive” propaganda to make them feel better and to keep the citizenry supportive of the war effort. But since WWII, I wonder if the Russian people would accept that sort of approach by their government since the impact of that war is, as I can gather, still very clear in the Russian psyche?
And I agree with your argument that deception only builds a house of cards; eventually it will collapse and then the builders have to deal with damage control which is always messy. I believe the current Russian approach is cleaner all around.
“PSYOPS” is a loaded word, as it generally means false information, but when the enemy is using blatently fake information as their most potent weapon, that weapon can be very effectively neutralised by the effective use of (truthful) information warfare. Honest but ineffective waffle, however, will simply be slashed down in a few slashes of the psyops sword.
Of course, Putin’s trolling of the west just before the start of the SMO was itself a psyop, and brilliantly it was conducted too. Having made such advanced preparations for an invasion collecting so many forces close to the border, how could Russia possibly achieve surprise? The US even publicly predicted the day and hour of the attack – yet when it finally came, everybody (especially the US) was taken aback!
I wonder if the Russian people would accept that sort of approach by their government since the impact of that war is, as I can gather, still very clear in the Russian psyche?
I disagree strongly with that statement. What is at issue here is not Russia’s failure to give palliative false information – i.e. propaganda – but their failure to persuade their people effectively of the truth, timely and forcefully, especially when that truth was expertly and “convincingly” contradicted by misinformation from the enemy. That is unreservedly a serious deficit.
I agree about the importance of the effect on Zone B. In the usual state of affairs during warfare, both sides will be constantly lying through their teeth to present a narrative that is strategically to their advantage. Information warfare is as old as antiquity, and it is an essential part of warfare, and always has been.
In this case though, the conditions are different. Russia has the upper hand, and can safely bet on being able to retain it. She has escalation dominance, and can dominate the battlefield in almost every critically important aspect. Therefore she has no need to lie – except in certain limited strategically important aspects especially with respect to future military intentions (eg the trolling mentioned above, the Kiev feint, feints to lure the enemy into traps, etc). By and large, it seems Russia has been exceptionally truthful in its reporting of the war (even under-reporting enemy losses until they are absolutely confirmed). On rare occasions when some information has been negative for Russia, Russia has at times openly published that information truthfully, which of course enhances its reputation in Zone B, showing herself to be a responsible and honest participant, in radical contrast to the enemy.
But – as you say – information release is managed by the military, which tends to be secretive by default. Historically one can understand that in principle, but it is far better for the military to be what could be termed “secretive by default with judicious oversight” – in particular to maintain constant oversight on (a) what sort of information should be released in the best interests of society, and (b) what sort of information is conducive to strategic advantage (psychological advantage). Both cases are highly deficient at present. In addition to that, that same information needs to be presented to the public in a manner which takes account of both the counterfactual environment (enemy pathological deceipt), and all psychological factors relevant to the way conflicting narratives influence the human mind – psyop, in other words, even if the information presented might be 100% or almost 100% true.
BM, I agree with much of what you’ve said here. My question to you is simply this: Where is the evidence that the Russian civilian government or its military are losing the so called PsyOps war? I just don’t see it. And let us be clear: PsyOps (as I understand it as a military term and its historical use) is simply using brainwashing techniques (slogans, repetition of message, deceptive messaging, demonization of the enemy, dehumanization of enemy, etc.) against one’s enemy to lower their morale and against the doubters of one’s own population to keep in check discontent with war efforts. Truth, on the other hand, is not really a PsyOps at all. Putin’s political party did very well in yesterday’s election, I hear. Putin himself is very popular in Russia. The Russian populace appear to strongly support the SMO from all the reports I see. I honestly don’t see any reason for alarm but perhaps I’m overlooking something.
There’s another aspect of psyops that I wanted to mention which we have to be aware of – on the Ukrainian side not the Russian side: these warnings of “filtering” those who stayed behind and “punishing” collaborators are 100% pure psyops. The objective is simple – FUD for anyone pro-Russia. It is irresponsible to believe these psyops as facts. Those who stayed behind were 100% pro-Ukrainian fanatics, happy to stay with Ukronazis – if not, they already left. Russia started organising this two weeks ago, and we all know how Russia organises things. Am I going to believe that Russia said to the elderly and infirm “Well, madam, to be evacuated you have to be strong and fit enough to walk 5km on your own without assistance, otherwise we’ll just leave you to your fate”? No, I am not going to believe that. I believe every assistance was provided to every single person who needed it. If they still refused, well, that is not Russia’s problem.
Let’s be honest, this particular psyop of threatening “filtration” and “punishment” for “collaboration” has already been highly effective in creating FUD among pro-Russians. Recognise it for what it is – FAKE. Any textual assertions are fabrications. Any alleged videos are either crisis actors or they are murdered victims from elsewhere or they are the victims of totally unrelated feuds denounced as vengence (history knows so many examples). Don’t fall for it.
Thanks for writing this, so I don’t have to do the work ;-) I was thinking like this for some time now.
Some thoughts I want to add as they weren’t mentionet here yet:
1) this is not only about the west and the RF. This sticking to the truth and not using offensive PSYOPS also sends a strong signal to all countries of zone B. The west is basically saying to them: “If we go down, Russia or China will just be the next imperium and they will be worse. So help us to stay on top.” Russia has to signal that they are different, not just the same shit with a different flag.
2) As we know, the winner defines history and the winner will be Russia. But puting all the war crimes and western lies into perspective is easier if the others can’t point back.
3) It’s not good to pick up a fight in a terrain were your opponent is better.
4) its a sign of strength if you don’t have to pay back the same or even escalate, but keep cool and let them try. (Yes this works better with economic warfare)
5) Perhaps this was also a goodie to give to the west, if they need it to resume negotiations without loosing face.
For not communicating or clarifying more:
I think Russia just gave up to convince anybody who doesn’t belief in her case yet. And any word too much can be used to fine-tune western PO or even against her. So for the moment there is no sense in more information than needed to keep most of the supporters they already have.
You are so correct about “Zone B”! Zone B might be the MOST important observer of this conflict, second only to the Russian public. And as you said: “…there is no sense in more information than needed to keep most of the supporters they already have.” I too believe that, when it comes to a conflict in arms, often less is more. You made several very good points, Erwin; thank you for sharing them.
Brilliant and illuminating—my thanks. But inasmuch as the Russians will be at an immense disadvantage in PSYOPS for many years to come, they must rely instead on the one thing the West disdains more than anything else and that, more than anyone else, has blurred and undermined throughout the world. And that is: ON THE GROUND REALiTY.
And thus: If Russia annihilates Ukraine forces in the Kharkov region; if it pushes Ukraine’s forces near Donetsk City two hundred miles to the west; if if takes Nikolaev and in early 2023 Odessa; if it crushes the remainder of Ukraine’s forces and destroys NATO weapons as soon as they arrive—if in short it unambiguously decides to win this frigging war and stop fighting with one hand tied behind its back, then REALITY will make it impossible for even the most sophisticated, most diabolical PSYOPS to win the war of minds. Contrarily, as long as Putin’s SMO rules of engagement restrain the Russians’ performance and keep the results ambiguous, western PSYOPS will be in the drivers seat.
I am an english speaker so only get the Russian Worldview thru The Saker and Mr. Martinov, a few RT tweets. On US twitter mosy people have got bored of the SMO. While tactically and operationally this fight is and will be a tremendous victory, strategically if it demoralized the russian people it was a mistake.While the Russians could commit a few more divisions and rather rapidly overrun Ukraine, the worldwide strategic elements of the SMO must be understood. More and more countries are dedollarizing which is the final goal. Without Petrodollar USA well have to live within its means, which will mean a smaller military. The sanctions have backfired and inflicted economic pain on US and europe.
The Nato psyops, when revealed to be utter BS will snap back on them.I think the current US Army actually believes the Ukie propaganda.
Terrific piece. There is no question that the recent ‘tactical’ gains by Ukrainian forces at great human cost, and who have invaded and currently occupy territory that Russian forces withdrew from, have provided western corporate media with a propaganda bonanza. However, things are not always as they appear. Consider-
1) As pointed out by Brian Berletic (https://www.youtube.com/c/TheNewAtlas), Andrei Martyanov (http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com) and Larry Johnson (https://sonar21.com) it remains to be seen if these apparent ‘victories’ can be developed into strategic victories.
2) Germany, France, Italy, Spain and other EU countries (in reality little more than US vassals/stooges) are faced with insolvable economic problems, greatly exacerbated by US/EU sanctions on Russian energy. Indeed, working people in the EU are faced with soaring energy costs and inflation and higher unemployment, which begs the obvious question, how long can this go on?
Indeed, the arrogance of the German ruling elite, no doubt reflective of the rest of the EU elite, was vividly on display from recent comments by German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, stating that she would continue to support Ukraine “no matter what German voters think.” (See: https://warisboring.com/german-foreign-minister-vows-to-support-ukraine-war-effort-no-matter-what-my-german-voters-think/)
Bottom line- never underestimate the greed, arrogance and dishonesty of the US/EU ruling elite.
Let me just add my two bits, not as an “arm-chair” general but as one born quite a few years ago. I saw these psy-ops wizards run for their life from the US embassy in Saigon, a pitiful show. Same repeat last year in Kabul. Then there is Iraq, Libya and before that Nicaragua, Bay of Pigs, etc, etc. Only big win was Grenada. The great victories achieved by the famous Navy Seals was the assassination of two little old men while losing a state-of-the-art copter in one case, and the murder of a prisoner. At least the Soviets’ exit from Afghanistan was classy when their commander, General Gromov walked across the “Bridge of Friendship” between Afghanistan and the USSR last. Can you imagine the American commander entering last in the last departing plane? In the next Hollywood flix.
So, psy-ops? Blowing smoke up one’s……..
The fog of war in the Instant Information Age?
1 – “He who betrayed Ukraine will not be in this land.”
Channel created on September 8.
https://t.me/zrada_izyum
2 -《You cannot leave people. Never, under any circumstances, abandon your people. The only valuable thing in Ukraine is the Russian people.
They cannot be abandoned or forsaken. They were already abandoned in 1991. Then again abandoned in 2014. You cannot leave them in 2022. Because even the most zealous Russians will hate both their family and their flag, and will curse the day they were born.
Whatever the plan was to leave the Kharkov region, whatever it was (treacherous / failure / design), it was necessary to first cover the departure of ALL peaceful people who supported Russia and then leave.
The scale of the military damage caused by the rapid withdrawal of the regrouping Russian troops has yet to be assessed. But the scale of the ideological and humanitarian catastrophe is already clear – the damage is colossal.
All this will affect the mood of all Russian and Ukrainian families and the integration processes in the liberated regions. There is nothing worse for a person than to lose faith.》
https://t.me/zhivoff/6209
3 – Sergey Glazyev, Russian intellectual and politician, points out the causes of the problems with SMO in Ukraine, quoting article in the link below. Unbelievable!
《I will punish, but I will save!
Ruslan Tsalikov, first Deputy Defense Minister of the Russian Federation, declared with undisguised pride that he was an atheist! Shoigu is baptized at Spassky Gate on May 9, and his deputy is an atheist!
Someone asked the question – is it pleasing to God to restore the international USSR-2 at the expense of the Russian people, and not the historic Russian Empire, on which atheistic Leninist Bolshevism parasitized?
The future belongs not to the USSR-2 project, but to the regenerated and renewed Russian Empire!
Russia will be reborn only when an altar to God and a throne to the Tsar reappear in the soul of a Russian person.》
https://dzen.ru/media/id/5ce47a8c0f23c200b3a4a9ff/nakaju-no-sohraniu-proryv-vsu-na-harkovskom-fronte-ili-nevyuchennyi-urok-velikoi-otechestvennoi-631b59a8ebbdac789b06c25d
4 – 《It is not about the lack of political will of Putin and his allies. The problem lies in the social structure itself, upon which Putin sits. This configuration is incompatible with mobilization.
If you put a few million men to arms, you will not have a combat-ready army, but an armed opposition.
To mobilize the economy, you have to tighten the belts of the rapacious bureaucracy and oligarchy. And they are the support of the throne, the feudal nobility, the lords of the Russian land.》
https://t.me/narodpv/2181
5 – There is a simple and foolproof way to dispel the fog of war in the Instant Information Age: confront analysis with the timeline.
To benchmark any channel on Telegram or any website, go back in the timeline to the fateful February 24. Confront the analyses, prognoses and assessments made by them with the irrefutable course of hard facts.
The discrepancy index will be inversely proportional to the credibility.
Regarding the current war in Ukraine, the key events so far are:
– Russian withdrawal from the Kiev region and Northern Ukraine;
– negotiations in Istanbul;
– Russian cruiser sinking;
– withdrawal from Snake Island;
– Azov prisoner exchange, in particular the Nazi Tayra;
– Grain Agreement;
– withdrawal from the Kharkov region.
6 – Clairvoyance is almost always understood as the ability to foresee the future. But there is nothing to be seen of the future, except a fleeting cloud of possibilities in incessant change.
Far from having to do with the future, clairvoyance is “the vision of what is taking shape” here and now. Seeing in this very instant that which only too late everyone else will also come to see.
What is here and now taking shape?
My 2 cents:
Russian leadership expected this “infowar” battlefield and EXPECTED to face a huge disadvantage.
So they decided NOT to fight on this battlefield. Betting on their populace to, eventually, see-through that PSYOP by SEEING THE CONTRAST in RU gov messaging and the others messaging.
IMO that is the correct course of action.
And, actually, the ONLY way one can – eventually – win even sucha lop-sided battlefield. By /openly/ yielding it, the battlefield’s “virtual reality” becomes exposed and its signifficance just evaporates like the morning fog.
The thing is, once a given person realizes how he/she is being duped, the person becomes almost completely immune to such info ops from then on. The problem is, for this to work one MUST FIRST BE ALLOWED TO GET DUPED. That is an essencial part of the process.
Yes, seen that in friends. It is easy to detect when you see people who were so-so-sure of their position to suddenly say “I do not know”. Or “this looks like that, but let’s see”.
There is a reason in 1984 any doubt, however small, was seen as mortal thread. For those who doubt tend to doubt everything. And those who doubt everything are impossible to control. Attempting such only reinforces their doubt.
Nough said.
It’s possible that this is a tactical and planned withdrawal if for no other reason, Ukraine keeps talking about the amount of territory ‘liberated’ but saying nothing about Russian casualties and POWs. This is especially odd since Ukraine claims to kill massive amount of Russians in very unlikely circumstances. Here they only discuss Russians retreating, not dying.
Ukraine is also talking about captured tanks and munitions. I see no reason for Russia to leave behind functioning tanks unless they were under repair, out of fuel, or did not have enough drivers to withdraw them.
I feel sorry for young people connected to any aspect of western social media.. this is the great secret of China – not only is their language and worldview so different, they maintain the great Firewall which, albeit having it’s own issues, is less suggestible to western manipulation. Telegram on the other hand, as we discussed a few weeks ago, is based in Europe under BND/MI6 control and influence. That is the main issue.
Another is the socialization and puppy-training that is subliminally and and openly introduced on a daily basis by Hollywood, western music industry, Netflix, Twitter, the Meta, YT, PORN & VIDEOGAMES, etc.. this is a whole suite of influencers that shape Russian and pro-Russian minds of suggestible minds. It is too deep for most young and not-so-young emotional minds.. the only real solution is to unplug from these poisons. How many willful and individualistic western-leaning folks are ready?? This is easier for us older folks with healthy skepticism and hard life experiences, and many who never got on these mindwar carousels.. Ultimately, unless the west does it for Russia as with other sanctions by hard-disconnecting them from their digital lifestyle drugs, authorities will either (1) have to take the hard choice to disconnect and seal off the west like China, or (2) give up on this lemming and immature segment of their population which is so swayable. War aims and consolidating the fruits of victory dictate a balanced position in the short term, otherwise some battlefield successes can be lost at home in the minds, attitudes and responses of these remote controlled drones.
It actually helps to consider these internal Russian youth and the suggestible as adjuncts to what Pepe calls “dronification.” The question is their percentage of the population and criticality. New Laws on supporting enemy aims can help corral and dampen the harm TV shows and other influencers recently noted to have fueled this madness can do. Constant educational outreach is needed to explain and help otherwise intelligent population understand these mindwars and the antidote (including Patience, Unplugging, and Perspective!).
We do not need to panic or overthink this issue. There is a 100+ year history of these western activities, since ww1. Ultimately this is a sophisticated western psychological operation of war, which has no peer, and the emphasis should be on short term protection, counter-disinformation, education and penalization of incitement.. After that, it is NOT on the authorities or the sane majority to indulge or babsit the triggered angst of a foolish minority. These remedies and mechanisms should be sufficient until the dastardly occidental satanists croak or are otherwise put out of their misery. And a consideration is that it was gamed the latter is necessary and to use these expected mindwars to expose the immature remote-controlled drones within influencers and remove them from influential decision-making in the coming restructuring of media, society and elites…
imho Reality is the best antiseptic to this VR madness, and needs but a little time. Battlefield results will overcome many’s triggering too and reveal how they were played. And if the fools do not learn the next PR cycle? Sayonara! Let them wail over their Lattes. Every society has such. Let’s not get too hung up regarding a storm in a teapot
I have NO idea what all the hand-wringing & angst is all about… especially since the puerile propaganda pablum – constantly regurgitated like a daily diet of sh!t sandwiches by the current crop of poseur Western “leaders” – should elicit nothing but contempt, scorn, derision and… DISMISSAL!
That, of course, does not mean that this pack of rancid rabid dogs won’t – unless they quickly start learning how to behave! – have to be “put down” for the good of the “neighbourhood”
Trust me, the public schools in the UK (where most of the Establishment’s children frequent) will have Russian & Chinese as the main uptakes in the language department. The upper classes follow the money, hedge their bets. Once they see the writing on the wall they’ll jump ship.
Here’s my simple roubles worth –
A Russian-Allied victory equals a more just world, economically and socially, the will of the people.
An American victory equals an Amazon type Plantation Military Police State and resurgence of the slave-trade, genocide, darkness and despair. Bill Gates standing over me on the operating table with a large syringe in one hand and hacksaw in the other.
lol :-)
The funny thing is how your statement is the exact opposite of what U.S. officials and CNN are saying.
Along these lines, I got nauseous watching FOX defend non-existent attacks on the recently deceased QE2.
Elizabeth was a pleasant enough person, I have nothing against her, only FOX rallying around the British empire as being the other force for good.
I mean really, did we have to hear Watters talk about ‘WHITE MAN’s BURDEN’ on primetime?
It would definitely be worth the investment to convince the Ukrainian public and the Ukrainian elite that they are losing and the defeat is inevitable. That would accelerate the needed military coup to oust Zelensky.
However, the NATO special operations teams are so deeply embedded in the Ukrainian military that it may be almost impossible for such a coup to get past the planning stages.
Situations in wars are never static. Russia would be wisest to put any advantages they have to maximum use today, rather than assuming those advantages will still exist in 12 or 18 months.
This is very good. I’m no expert in any of this stuff but neither am I a dummy, so I recognize clean, lean, insightful prose when I read it. You shouldn’t worry about how long it is. Einstein said, “Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler.” (One of the few things he was right about.) So long as you don’t suddenly decide to start writing flabby prose, you’re good. Very good indeed. Also don’t worry about the English grammar. That is also very good, and the few exceptions are clearly native-speaker type things. Many thanks for taking a complex subject and explaining it very well with exactly the number of words required so an interested outsider like me can understand it.
I am Korean(south). 99.999% of Korean just gave up their brain to US/NATO. But still there are some people with serious mind. Economic disaster will fix this situation. Anti-Chinese will be the next issue. There are far fewer experts on China than on Russian ones. We need to prepare that one. Even those wise men on Russian issues are brain-washed for Chinese issues. I am really concerned.
I am very careful not to have or articulate an opinion on matters about which I know little or nothing. I do not know that is in the mind of President Putin, the minister of defense or the top commanders of this SMO. I would be guessing were I to attempt to outline what has happened militarily in the Ukraine over the last few days; however, I do know the elites of the Collective West, particularly the American cadre of them. Put aside the “military/industrial complex” and the grifters such as the Bidens, the Pelosis, the Kerrys, the Romneys and the McCains. At the core of these American elites is a rabid group of ideologues which is not new in American history. They have their origins in the Puritans of New England at the end of the 18th century, a clique who had rejected the Christ of the Christian faith but who had retained the messianic zeal. They have not changed over the last 200 years: they want to make the world over into their image; and they tolerate no resistance. They have already successfully made “the West” over in their image – they have destroyed it. They intend to destroy Russia; and unless they are themselves destroyed, they will press on until they succeed by any means necessary. It seems to me that the Russian leadership has simply not grasped this reality. “These people” will not yield; there can be no peace with them. These military operations by the Collective West may not succeed at the operational or strategic level, but they might well destroy the hard work which Russia and others have done in putting together new trade agreements forming and expanding BRICS and Russia’s emerging face as a strong and dependable partner. This PSYOPs is not new. It is almost as old as American history, for much of that history is a lie. “These people” are very effective with it. What I can say is that there is a little hovel of us here in our climes who feel very alone. We are deplorables, Old Narnians, and Hobbits hiding under the rubble, attempting to survive spiritually, intellectually and even physically. We pray for Russia. May it not be destroyed as we have been destroyed.
Hello. I have found an interesting thing going on here in the States: the college educated crowd is gobbling up the mass media propaganda/PSYOPs, while the unedcuated/”unwashed” are very suspicious of everything (have a deep distrust of “official” or what they perceive as “official”-connected mass media). The world is upside down here because one would expect that the “educated” would be more suspicious, not less. However, in parallel, the “educated” seem to be living cozier lives so it may be a “trust of convenience”, while on the opposite side the “uneducated” are getting screwed over by job/real-wage losses and have hence decided that something is wrong.
This is normal psychology. The “Educated” are brain-massaged when your, at a time they do not have a reference to see through the lies.
So, psychologically, the cannot /do not want/ to admit to themselves they were led. As that would mean – to them – their whole lifes were a fake. So these people ACTIVELY work to maintain the brainwashing as it is -literally- hurting them hearing the dissenting opinions. And this is hugely promulgated by the social media of today.
The “lower” classes still attend local pubs, where discussion cannot be avoided. The better-off mostly congregate on same-view places where if anyone dare to object he/she is ostracized and excluded.
This was why the famous “Why they do not eat cakes?” Quote came. The royal court of the time was so disconnected from real world under them they literally had zero clue DESPITE being well-educated in history and what not.
typo
… massaged when youNG …
I’m sorry but you’re affectively just complaining that Russia hasn’t destroyed Twitter yet. The informational war is not about Twitter it’s about getting power of powerful foreign allies like China and India on your side which Russia has affectively done. None of those countries like Twitter because they know the Twitter is a tool of American intelligence services.
Exactly: this is well stated – those in the media and information business are less important than they think – it’s a closed circuit in which they can entertain themselves – especially with regard to RoW
The rest of the world has much less time for such toys, and the crucial élites in India and China, as you point out, are well aware of the advantages of a realist assessment of the overall situation, military economic and political
The advantage of the RF campaigns, in all areas, is that they reasonable and realist and are self evidently so, self interested to the point of efficiency but not beyond
Viewed from the non west their MSM twitter etc comes across as hysterical
“Furthermore, I have come to the sad conclusion that many military arguments are simply too complicated for most people to understand. Not only are they often rather technical, but they are also much longer, meaning that it is impossible to defeat people who operate by slogans with long, detailed arguments. It simply does not work.”
Insightful and true, but it sadly doesn’t end with military arguments. I’ve come to believe that most people need “slogans” as landmarks for navigating their understanding of the world (in every way). The ancient Greeks called them doxa — beliefs — such as the sayings of the wise and of the poets. Most classical age Athenians then had never studied the thinkers we call the Pro-Socratics, but many of them — and certainly all the educated — knew some condensed kernels from the “wise” of their age . . . man is the measure of all things, nature loves to hide, the clever man makes the weaker argument appear the stronger, etc. People today are the same — they operate with probably a couple hundred “slogans” that are their mental landmarks. These are not the same as principles; they’re instead non-rational commitments, many of them in contradiction to others, but people accept them just as they breathe the air around them.
What the revolutionaries have done is replace these landmarks in the West. For centuries, the holy scriptures supplied most of these landmarks for the majority. Today, the many are ignorant of the Bible. Instead of the Greeks’ Hesiod and Homer, instead of the Christians’ Bible and liturgical poetry, contemporary Westerners gather their authoritative landmarks from popular entertainment and the opinion makers of today (the media). Replace the markers, change the map. And the wicked bastards have been remarkably successful.
Thanks for the sober look at what’s happening.
I would only add that I find it very hard to believe the Russian MOD missed or misread Ukrainian intentions or troop concentrations. They figured out US intentions for the past 30 years (learning along the way) so I cannot square the idea they would misread the Ukrainian “offensive”, not after 6 months of fighting. Could they have miscalculated the intensity or success? Sure, that’s possible. However, as you point out, they fell back in good order with minimal losses while severely punishing the Ukies. I have some hesitation to say “Oh yes, this was all part of their clever plan, Baldrick!” but one element of fighting is redirecting force and making space. So, perhaps, MOD did misread this and had a crappy choice to make and they decided to give up space and suck the enemy into the open. The reserves coming forward may have been decided (as Larry Johnson suggests) weeks ago in preparation for something else and it’s a happy accident the timing came together.
As you note, though, we’ll never get the whole story and none of us are on the General Staff so we have to see what develops. I think your approach – asking ourselves what we can glean from what we see, is the best we can do right now.
Thanks again!
sou brasileiro e aqui no Brasil nem parece que existe guerra na Ucrânia,mas tenho um grupo no Facebook onde posto as informações sobre a russia e sempre que percebo que o ocidente está investindo alto em alguma PSYOPS eu venho aqui no seu blog desfrutar da sua clareza nas análises..porém essa ofensiva está destruindo o moral dos pró russos que tenho no meu grupo mas continuo postando as informações pra galera não perder a moral
I’m Brazilian and here in Brazil it doesn’t even seem like there is a war in Ukraine, but I have a Facebook group where I post information about Russia and whenever I notice that the West is investing heavily in some PSYOPS I come here on your blog to enjoy its clarity in the analyses..but this offensive is destroying the morale of the pro Russians that I have in my group but I keep posting the information so the guys don’t lose morale
Estoy preocupado por lo que está sucediendo y en verdad deseo que Rusia tenga un as bajo la manga para superar esta situación.
Entiendo que es lógico que los rusos hayan hecho avanzar a los ucranianos para alejarlos de su zona segura de logística y suministros justo antes del invierno, pero es algo tan obvio que me parece extraño que la Otan no haya considerado tal posibilidad, así que es necesario esperar el desarrollo de los hechos en el frente.
I am worried about what is happening and I really wish that Russia has an ace up its sleeve to overcome this situation.
I understand that it is logical that the Russians would have moved the Ukrainians away from their safe logistics and supply zone just before winter, but it is so obvious that it seems strange to me that NATO has not considered such a possibility, so it is necessary await the development of events at the front.
Very helpful post. I particularly like how you don’t pretend to know what you don’t and can’t know.
My background is in marketing. Given a choice between A strategic vision and operational effectiveness combined with poor PSYOPS ability (Russia) and B insane strategic vision and diminishing operational effectiveness combined with PSYOPS ability (America), I will pick A.
Every culture isn’t good at everything. That said I am mystified by the nearly complete disconnect between the astute and sophisticated insight provided by the Russian leadership and their incompetent messaging to the masses. I could see them being mediocre at mass communication but not dreadful at it. Why are they so bad?
That said, the operational incompetency and insanity of the western elite are undermining the effectiveness of their psyops. Good whites pride themselves on believing the narratives. The more insane the better because the narratives serve as loyalty tests and a way to distance from the masses. So, they have to believe the lies.
The rest of the planet, including bad whites, don’t have to believe the lies and increasingly they aren’t buying into them. Besides Russia Man Bad the regime media on both the left and right are pushing Yellow Man Bad about Xi. I don’t see any indication that beyond Good Whites many are buying into that line emotionally. Yeah, some conservatives believe the genocide Olympics were just held but I can’t imagine many want war with China or to freeze because of it.
Russia can always count on the Serbian People to support it all the time no matter what the situation is through thick and thin !
Have faith that we ‘simpeltons’ be it Russian or in my case American do read. This was interesting, although overall somewhat elementary for those of us so indoctrinated and wise to the msm. Better to watch from afar then to have ones foot caught in a snar as so many on these blogs, I know from experience! lol. Yes I do submit that I wholeheartedly welcome the new multi cultural polar world having no doubt Russia must and will prevail geopolitically as the ukraine unfolds be it what it may. Yes these are very serious times.
Hi Saker – I’m reading this now – thoroughly enjoying your dignified sad but funny tolerance of the ‘allislosters’ and the ‘Putinsoldouters’ its really so cute
Thankfully I don’t feel myself targeted by your sad funny humour about the armchair warriors that always think they know better than Putin what Putin should do – even though I bet 100 to 1/2 that these ACWs couldn’t have got Russia where it is now – like Putin did
I’d hate to see Shoigu replaced by any but thankfully I’m hoping Putin will get in again – but I haven’t got through the article yet so I don’t know if you’re going to mention – talk to you again in a minute
Anyway – take Heart Soldier Andrei becuase Russia is gonna win and the West is gonna lose.
thanks for great music video too – I guess many of those singers are familiar faces to Russian folk…but I adored the words…I wish I was someone’s special support like the person in the song.
Its gonna get better – not worse. Love Ann
Psyops can go so far: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UBZEs6V-ThU
I too followed all the respectable sources. Although I always found the NYT pompous, I thought that’s what normal people read. Until one day I watched a full interview with Putin and realized how intelligent and rational he was. I always felt a kinship with Russians considering I am also orthodox so maybe that helped me keep an open mind.
However, it took the pandemic and the hysteria around trump to catalyze my “awakening” two years ago.
The issue is that the propaganda machine in the west is total. They do not even pretend to be objective anymore that’s how confident they are. It’s complete and constant and after enough time people stop fighting it. They also stop fighting because they are afraid of the consequences. The same as people losing friends and family over the views on the pandemic, it happens with Russia too.
One thing I am sure of though is that it is a technical problem. And the Russians are great at solving technical problems so I believe that the reason this hasn’t been solved is either they do not think it is an important problem to be solved, or are not willing to put the resources necessary to solve it.
In my opinion it would be an easier problem to solve in America than Europe. I can still get RT here, it’s banned in Germany. However solving it must be made a priority as much as the military technical problem.
One thing that helps is it’s always easier to destroy than to build. The same applies to trust in the media. Destroy the people’s trust in the mainstream media and you are 80% of the way there.
Ukies are US neocons proxys (after they used their moderate rebels aka terrorists in Syria- Iraq).
But eurocretins are ALSO US proxys: read this
“Trade with Europe accounts for less than 1 percent of U.S. gross domestic product, and many economists agree a decline in European consumer demand probably would not substantially affect U.S. firms. America also produces enough of its own natural gas not to be significantly affected by Russia restricting its flow into Europe”.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2022/09/11/europe-energy-crisis-white-house/?fbclid=IwAR2NGkk4wJv3b4n6hqKmm91m9d6bzqGlZxkF5xUIOms5cQmrRNt2tWBeqj4
American are so naive that they say it and print it loudly.
Any EU reaction? Of course not.
The message is crystal clear: you poor idiots, destroy your economy, your society, your competitiveness for generations, we don’t care.
Champagne for us and the best. Thanks you.
Remember Nuland ‘fuck the EU’?
How is that possible? For me(I wrote it here before the smo), the real target is not even Russia, but Germany (and satellites) which must be destroyed at any cost, then we will come and ‘save them’ buying their assets (bankrupted) for a few dollars, exactly like after WWII and the fall of the USSR(here no need to look for Eltsin, there are already hundreds in charge).
EU will soon become EUSSR 2.0, then that was their goal since 09/11.
The US as world dictator, NATO worldwide police army, a new form of nazism (see ukie project), read T Meyssan (straussians available on https://www.voltairenet.org/?lang=en) and a rapid search, multiple articles on the issue in all languages.
Why are these issues relevant today, given that the War on Terrorism is yesterday’s news and Great Power Conflict and a New Cold War are all the rage in the USA?
They are relevant because the “War on Terrorism” and Cold Wars (both old and new) are nothing more than propaganda pretexts to morally rationalize what has been America’s true geopolitical ambition from the start: to create an American world dictatorship in all but name, cloaked behind the USA’s founding lies about “defending freedom and democracy.”
The war in Ukraine is but one theater in this broader (disguised) war for American world dictatorship. Just like the War on Terrorism, the Old Cold War, or New Cold War.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/manifesto-for-world-dictatorship-20020922-gdfnoj.html?fbclid=IwAR0dsqRRTmpDfU9uOGhO7mZ85i_nQSHt7t1tb6KCweKS2Pl9yVLwAye4iRc
A few links:
Russia is no longer fighting a Ukrainian army equipped by NATO, but a NATO army manned by Ukrainians. Yet, Russia still holds the upper hand despite its Kharkiv setback.
https://consortiumnews.com/2022/09/12/scott-ritter-why-russia-will-still-win-despite-ukraines-gains/
Playing With Fire.
https://imetatronink.substack.com/p/playing-with-firehtml?fbclid=IwAR1ZkH7gNshmAgDJ03R3b1ZCWbVmues-WScN8O6wynQanMSqhoKzX2Xb2mU
Thanks. “killing of Russian field commanders, the sinking of the Moskva; the terrorist-style attacks on Russian cities; recent attacks on Russian ammo depots.”
“US military personnel are directly involved in battlefield strikes against Russian forces and terrorist strikes against Russian civilians”.
But isnt it the same as in Syria?
Next time Israel bomb Syria and kill Russian officers, we will give Assad the S-300, next time.
Next time US military kill Russian commanders in Ukraine, we will hit command centres, next time.
US-RUSAL is still sucking E-Russia dry, and Herman Gref/Sber Bank is still servicing US hedge funds.
Do with our Russian behind as you want, look at all the young Syrian and Ukrainian men who get killed.
Also two things I would like to point out:
1. The Russian MoD briefings are boring. It’s like sitting through a PowerPoint presentation at work from a monotone speaker. An example of someone who brings things to life and is still a military professional and from the little I have seen unbiased (even if he is which I don’t think the point is about the presentation) is the Austrian commander: https://youtu.be/RpC1kXhW2Lw
2. There is an excellent site that is the most objective and thorough I have ever seen on the internet. And that includes all of my favorites (including thesaker which I love): https://swprs.org/
There they compare American and Russian propaganda. Worth looking at the difference and that will give a better understanding as to why the west is winning the psyops war
It cant be said enough. The Chinese knows it, North Korea knows it, I guess Russia knows it too:
“Above all it is essential to refer to things by their correct names. If things are not referred to by their correct names, then our language will not reflect reality.
If our language does not reflect reality, then our actions will not reflect reality, and will be exercises in futility.” (Confucius, 551-479 BC, Chinese Teacher[22])
Its not enough to win a psy-op because your actions will be exercises in futility, which is precisely what Western actions are. Futile.
Another thing which is an integration of something I said and you said.
The fridge beats the TV .. but the TV can distract from hunger for a long time.
What is needed is to break that effect and then when hunger takes over to direct that towards the desired target.
What I mean by that is the Europeans will go hungry and cold but so long as they believe that Russia is to blame they will sacrifice their children to fight it.
How do you avoid that? By destroying their faith completely in their media and government. Nothing to do about Russia at first. Could be corona. Financial class. Corporate corruption. Whatever. Then you build a bridge “Well if they lied to you about this what makes you think they didn’t lie to you about that?” Sow doubt and then grow it.
Once hunger and cold hits, you activate that seed of doubt and direct it towards their governments.
The source needs to be both respectable and independent. Needs to speak the same language, tone, words used etc. as the current dominant brand of propaganda for the desired demographic (democrat, republican, working class, social warrior, old, young, etc.).
And that needs to be done long before – just like preparing for battle. This needs to be taken seriously just as seriously studied and executed as the economic and military war.
I think they’ve come some way but there is a lot more to go.
Also check out Edward Barnays and Jacques Elul
@ Saker
“Personally, I can hardly convey to you how frustrating it is for me to observe all this without having the means to do anything about it.
—————————————-
1) You’re being honest. That’s 99% of what needs to be done. The rest is in Allah’s hands, and as we say in Islam, “Allah knows best…”
“Lord…only say the word, and my servant will be healed.” Matthew 8, 5-11
2) Honesty is not a welcome trait. It usually does not open doors. On the contrary, honest people do not fit in the corridors of power where interests rule, and honesty doesn’t belong.
“There is a well-known saying that if geometrical axioms affected human interests attempts would certainly be made to refute them.” (Lenin)
3) Frustrations run contrary to hope, and if hope is faith, and faith is power, the only real power, frustration short circuits the path to power.
The last few days have been difficult, sleepless nights waiting for the news to come and the winds to change, hoping someone was going to put forward an objective narrative of the recent events, as all I saw was doom and defeatism on one side, and/or “Russia never makes a mistake” apologists on the other.
Glad you did.
It has restored my faith in the current engagement.
Too tired to comment further on your extensive write up, will do so tomorrow.
Lone Wolf
PS: Glad you found Big Serge. I posted a link to his blog here after it surfaced. He’s an acute observer, too theoretical for my taste sometimes.
No kidding the western elites have bet the farm. I never thought I’d see the day mainstream media would shamelessly make tabloid journalism look respectable. From the sheer desperation of their outrageous lies it’s clear western oligarchs see this as an existential struggle, though the masses don’t seem to care much for this war.
That was the sad part for me living in the west, that our leadership had committed to WWIII.
The problem for the media is that at the end of day it’s only results that count. The west won’t be able to detach from the ultimate result in the Ukraine. Whatever credibility the media had will be gone.
I get from your text the idea that the thing “constructed reality” is a potent weapon of mass deception. It actually uses and abuses an important human trait, the way to cope with insufficient infos and human flaws. Living in that thing, our overlords construct reality and have an open field for shooting down any dissenting voice. The West bet its farm on this “constructed reality”.
I do feel bad about it. If that constructed reality thing wins the day, it means to me that we’re going to live in a world where Big Brother from 1984 is a democrat and we will be “happy” or get vaporized.
The coming winter months will be pivotal to the war. Electric utilities are being hit, it will be a cold and starving winter for Europe.
If Russia takes Kramatorsk and Slavayansk, the war can be considered, imo over. It would provide the basis of the end of the ukrainian state.
These cities are much smaller than kharkiv and can be liberated more easily. I see Kherson and kharkiv as diversions for this real goal.
The full liberation of donbass will a mortal blow to the nazi regime.
Dear Saker,
Thank You very much for your elaborate explanation.. It gives sense of relieve in me and my friends.
We can not argue with slogans.
Here in social media space, most Indonesians are pro-Russia, although most local mainstream coverages are only parroting what CNN says.
We also fight with trolls and possibly bots accounts here.
Hopefully The Russian just pulls those Nazi from entrenched defense line in order to easily destroy them… we will see.
Regards.
HM
I just find it abominable that we world citizens are put in this situation. There is no need for it. The warmongers want blood and power. Their unreasonable hatred for Russia is as obscene as the Nazi hatred of the the Jewish people. May Russia remain strong of will. Russia WILL prevail.
I think psyops is overrated.
Do you trust the people to be intelligent?
Then any psyops becomes useless except to get Votes from the gullible.
I agree. If we take the USSR and the Second World War, who made a decisive contribution to the victory: the Main Political Directorate or the General Staff? Which of them is the main one, and who is the service one? Who is the cart and who is the horse? Who’s the tail and who’s the dog?
P.S. The Russians would need to direct all their propaganda to attract people to serve in the mobilization human reserve. Simplistically, this is the passage of military training by civilians for 3 days a month under a contract. There is such a form of military training in Russia since 2015. At least on paper. And the General Staff before that (horse and cart, dog and tail) – to create conditions so that not only on paper. And if somewhere is still on paper, kick it out. If you start doing this right now, it won’t be too late.
P.P.S. But I’m already beginning to doubt whether the rulers of any country (not necessarily Russia) really need such a number of people trained in military affairs?
Confirmation of my earlier post:
Is the War in Ukraine Part of a U.S. Strategy to Weaken Germany? RAND Says, “YES”!
https://sonar21.com/is-the-war-in-ukraine-part-of-a-u-s-strategy-to-weaken-germany-rand-says-yes/
nb: preparation in Poland for a Belarus coup, but still at early stage, training of paramilitary + usual ‘nato mercenaries’.
US threathens China of secondary sanctions if Beijing continues cooperation with Russia.
Let me tell you that in Europe and even in the US if they sanctions on China to sanctions on Russia, stores will be empty after a few weeks.
It the means the end of the EU, the euro, and I’m not so sure that people and business will not revolt, if they don’t they simply be ruined forever.
Xi’s Meeting With Putin Seen As Major Market Risk
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/xis-meeting-putin-seen-major-market-risk
Second front: Armenia Requests Russian Military Assistance As Fighting Breaks Out With Azerbaijan
Expect Moldova, Georgia, Belarus and Kossovo – Serbia to follow. Even a regime change à la maidan in Budapest, to follow ?
So much to think about, so much well said. I would add that the US is “The Empire of Lies.” Write that on your TV screen with lipstick to keep yourselves ballanced.
I am westerer, a longtime patriot. I am pro Putin because he is obviously the “good” guy on the world stage. I clued in about 10 years ago, thou gh with hindsight we can see further back.
Thanks for the sound counsel
Resonate commentary. It’s actually painful for us social creatures not to conform. So important then to find fellow misfits. The ones who see the round moon, and not a triangular one.
Thank you for the beautiful WW2 song.
I continue to insist on my personal opinion on the events – that in the Kharkov region russians are suckering the ukies outside the cities into a trap, in order to destroy them with minimum civilian casualties. Why I continue to insist on it:
One of the biggest problems with fulfilling the task of “demilitarization” is the fact that the Ukie forces had dug into the civilian population centers using their own population as human shields. Routing them out would’ve required urban warfare pretty much for every building with significant casualties both among the russian servicemen and the local civilian population – we saw this in Mariupol. Someone may argue that those in Mariupol were Nazi zealots, but make no mistakes – the “regular” AFU is not much different, especially given the Nazi politkomisars attached to every regular unit, ready to shoot the regulars in the back if they don’t fight. From this perspective, allowing the ukies to advance, and granting them “victories” by capturing empty towns and villages with no strategic importance sounds like a good strategy.
Unlike the Kherson direction, Kharkov line was much more lightly defended – as everyone remembers (I hope), the assault by, presumably, Ukie’s elite forces in Kherson direction was stopped in its tracks with relative ease. Unlike Kherson, the russian units in Kharkov region are withdrawing in orderly manner, trading territory, which is useless from strategic point of view, for time, allowing for the Ukies to stretch their supply lines, which would make them vulnerable. It also should be noted that the Ukie forces there advance without being harrased much by the russian artillery or missiles – and if anyone believes that the russians are out of shells or missiles, I have a house to sell on the sea beach in Kansas for you ;-).
All these spells a trap for the Ukies to me.
“A moderate house of cards the greatest wit
Though he can start it cannot finish it” — Goethe, Faust
I think you summed up, nicely, in the first part of the article (facts on the ground), the effectiveness of Russian OPSEC.
In the second part, I think you summed up, nicely, Russia’s reputation for basically either telling the facts as they are or saying nothing. Not lying very much, in a war, is probably a valuable commodity in the medium-to-long term. It means that if you do need to slip in the occasional fudge, people will believe it.
Meanwhile, the only people who matter are the soldiers. From what I have seen, their morale seems high – they seem truly professional. If they really are, despite western psyops, this is great. If they are actually not, then this must be an absolute triumph of Russian psyops making them seem such in every video I have seen of them.
That is the best explanation I ever heard of from what happened the last week or so. From my point of view I always refer to the Bible. I worked with that book in my entire life.I was born the same year as Stalin died. My whole family lived through the holy script. So I can with joy say that the bible never let us down. The EU will go down and that is a fact. The west will go down and that is a fact. Why? Just because anyone with a haughty life is doomed and that goes for the entire west. That’s the fact for today. And it will come to pass. I’m not worried of Russia. Because this country is not living with haughty thoughts.
The discussion of experts from several Russian think tanks about the near future may be interesting. Online translation – https://translated.turbopages.org/proxy_u/ru-en.ru.328afe75-63204cb8-9ecc6696-74722d776562/https/nbj.ru/publs/intellektualnyy_povorot_rossii_nuzhna_nova/59684/
First, there is a general brief analysis and forecast by Sergey Karaganov, a member of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy (SVOP). A member of SVOP is, among others, Andrey Bezrukov, respected on this site.
Thanks to Saker and all the good people from other countries. I wish you all good health and go through difficult times.
I would submit that Russia is deliberately failing on the psychological operations front, in order to allow NATO to save face as they lose and Russia achieves (more or less) every goal (military, political/geographic, economic) it set out to achieve. This might sound counterintuitive or even insane at first- I can hear the NAFO shills barking “Copium!” at me already- but hear me out.
Vladislav Surkov, the now-apparently-disgraced advisor to Putin who was instrumental in planning the 2014 seizure of Crimea, wrote an interesting short story I would advise everyone to read, called “Without Sky,” under the pen name of Natan Dubovitsky. Here is a link to an English translation, from which I will quote:
http://www.bewilderingstories.com/issue582/without_sky.html
“This was the first non-linear war. In the primitive wars of the nineteenth, twentieth, and other middle centuries, the fight was usually between two sides: two nations or two temporary alliances. But now, four coalitions collided, and it wasn’t two against two, or three against one. It was all against all.
And what coalitions they were! Not like the earlier ones. It was a rare state that entered the coalition intact. What happened was some provinces took one side, some took the other, and some individual city, or generation, or sex, or professional society of the same state – took a third side. And then they could switch places, cross into any camp you like, sometimes during battle.
The goals of those in conflict were quite varied. Each had his own, so to speak: the seizing of disputed pieces of territory; the forced establishment of a new religion; higher ratings or rates; the testing of new military rays and airships; the final ban on separating people into male and female, since sexual differentiation undermines the unity of the nation; and so forth.
The simple-hearted commanders of the past strove for victory. Now they did not act so stupidly. That is, some, of course, still clung to the old habits and tried to exhume from the archives old slogans of the type: victory will be ours. It worked in some places, but basically, war was now understood as a process, more exactly, part of a process, its acute phase, but maybe not the most important.”
>War was now understood as a process, more exactly, part of a process, its acute phase, but maybe not the most important.
(Here is a short segment on Surkov, “Putin’s Theater Director,” from the excellent Adam Curtis documentary “Hypernormalisation” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lI27qk1irg0&t=9s)
What if (and I know this sounds crazy), Russia was deliberately *trying to lose* in the eyes of the West and NATO, while still achieving all its goals (control over Donbass, dethroning the petrodollar, weakening the US in the eyes of the world, strengthening diplomatic relations with the former Non-Aligned Movement and global South in order to transition to a multipolar geopolitical system).
I have a great respect for Andrei (Mr. Saker?) but I suspect he is playing a bit coy when he decries the Russian’s failure to play the psyop game. He fails to consider that maybe, just maybe, they are failing on purpose- or, to put it another way, deliberately playing the heel in what can be seen as a very large, very abstract, postmodern, collaborative, interactive, scripted theater/performance art piece.
Also: “Without Sky” was published (pseudonymously) just days before Crimea was annexed in 2014. I personally think it can be read as a thesis statement, which we are seeing play out to its conclusion in the SMO (and beyond).
Some more Surkov-related links, for those interested:
https://akarlin.com/surkov-interview-with-kolesnikov/
https://akarlin.com/surkov-interview-with-kolesnikov-2/
https://www.unz.com/akarlin/surkov-is-not-a-deep-person/
https://www.ft.com/content/1324acbb-f475-47ab-a914-4a96a9d14bac
https://mediamilwaukee.com/home/vladislav-surkov-who-is-biography
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/11/hidden-author-putinism-russia-vladislav-surkov/382489/
Mark my words, we are watching a theatrical production. All the world’s a stage.
Thanks Ivan. A very good and sophisticated one.
It could also explain my own complains about RUSAL and Sber Bank: Letting the usurers win and suck because the final jackpot will take it all back again with compound interests.
This is my first comment though I have followed this blog for years because of its quality.
I’m not a troll or bot.
I know nothing about Ukraine except what I read and hear on the internet.
In my opinion the key aspect of the Kharkov retreat concerns Russian supporters left behind. Is this not the ‘soft spot’ that the psy-op will exploit?
How can Lira and Martyanov KNOW ANYTHING about those Russian supporters? Saker says ‘I don’t know’. That’s why I follow his blog.
If indeed the Kharkov region was lightly defended, does that not suggest a quiescent civilian population in that region? Which suggests a LOT of support for Russian policies?
If indeed the retreat was planned, or a trap was set, does that not suggest that a mass civilian evacuation did NOT occur because that would have SIGNALED the plan?
What does it mean, will it mean, if the question of DEFENSE of Russian supporters is NOT addressed directly by the Russian officials? Has it been? Isn’t the morale of most soldiers in modern armies based on their belief in being defenders? Isn’t the morale of the supporters of Russian currently at risk in the war zone intimately connected with the fate of those supporters of Russia still in Kharkov region, now controlled by Ukrainian forces? Not to speak of public opinion in Russia and ‘the world’…
I would appreciate the Saker addressing these questions head on, with his customary erudition and honesty. Thanks to the Saker and all the insightful commenters on this blog.
It looks to me that RA had largely vacated Izyum region before AFU offensive. Why? lack of ability to defend?(unlikely since a small group of soldiers fought gallantly which shows the spirit of the army).
Does RA need the force somewhere else ? (so far they only dug in behind the river to form a new defensive line so the force is not needed somewhere by the look of it)
Does RA want this 5 AFU brigades (1 to 2 tank brigades included I read somewhere) to be trapped in this area, so they can’t partake in offense or defense in another battle? What battle/s?
AFU offensive ended with RA taking power grid offline, which means electrical rail system is paralyzed. That certainly seems to be consistent with the hypothesis of trapping AFU troops up north, along with those armors.
Is RA planning a major offensive somewhere else? Where is 3rd Army corp located? In Donbass.
Does RA actually want to keep those Ukies away from Donbass?
3rd Army Corps has ?50K soldiers, what are they going to do?
It all points to a major RA offensive from Donbass it seems…
Thank you, Andrei – this was a well-written & thought-provoking material, especially considering its breadth – from social psychology to military. I liked it, but – a few remarks, if I may (all **IMHO**, of course – insert everywhere):
– quote “countering US/NATO ought to be a strategic goal for the entire Russian government. Now, let me ask you – do you feel that the entire Russian government has set such a strategic goal? I sure don’t.”
If the key word is **the entire** – then I completely agree. Otherwise, this, might not be a “goal”, but the understanding that the Ukraine means very little and that the war is already or about to start with the real enemy – the US and NATO forces, this understanding is there and have been there already for some time. That’s one of the reasons Russians use only a fraction of their known resources and new equipment ion the battlefield.
(* I really want to expand on how *global* population was being gradually trained to limit their consumption, not to run on the shops, banks etc, accept governmental control, learn obedience with the green agenda and covid for already some time – but I won’t. I will mention only that this was not a deliberate conspiracy by some exceptionally powerful, bright and well organized individuals – there are none such left nowadays. It is simply a product of the global societal evolution. *)
– RT. It is not bad at all. They have markedly improved over the last 10-15 years, and the fact that RT is banned in all Europe now, is a proof to the quality of their reporting
– Konashenkov. He is not bad at all. Certain clipped military style, well enunciated speech etc. Whether he is the one who decided what to say – I have no idea, but have my suspicions.
– About “Russians” (of any ethnicity) in the “west”. They are continuously under a lot of open psychological pressure to conform, to fit etc. Frequently, it were them who made a choice to immigrate in the past, hence the confirmation bias. Non-conformism causes constant stress, it costs money and opportunity & not everyone is mentally built or can afford to handle it.
– Russian Government … In many aspects it is adequate, many of the people there do know what they are doing, but in many places its structure is vastly overblown and inefficient. It needs “выбраковка” (cleansing – the word in Russian is the title of a (fiction) book by Oleg Divov). Urgently. Especially in the present situation – an already or almost started war with the US and NATO.
“I have come to the sad conclusion that many military arguments are simply too complicated for most people to understand. Not only are they often rather technical, but they are also much longer, meaning that it is impossible to defeat people who operate by slogans with long, detailed arguments.”
This is true in most of the cases in all areas of life for the lot. Helping my children with schoolwork lasted only so long until they understood I was only helping them to really and fully understand the stuff instead of giving them quick answers. They stopped asking me and they never got to the same level of understanding. It is what it is. And they have their lives, which are also good lives, but thus different. When I comment on video’s or blogs I often type a lot to explain my train of thoughts, in the context, trying to connect with the content and the poster, what I see is the essence to be addressed. Rarely I get a like or a reaction, but when someone takes the effort to read my stuff then I get a real like and sometimes a ‘thank you’. It is what it is. I have to accept the majority is not interested to learn what it is to be conscious, aware and awake.
I can hardly convey to you how frustrating it is for me to observe all this without having the means to do anything about it.
The people who understand this in depth are experience it themselves as well. Also people on the other side of the spectrum are experiencing frustration as well, because you/we don’t see it their way. Frustration is an emotion for the unconscious being. Surely I’m frustrated frequently, but I also understand I simply have to accept life as it comes. In this time frame of evolution these are the people who are on Earth, unconscious for the most part. And frankly I’m not that much better, since I’m frustrated far too often. I’m human, not super-human. It’s good to get those frustrations out of your system by ventilating those. But all ‘that stuff’ is not inside you nor in your connection with the divine source of this Universe. This knowing sets you free.
“I know that what I am trying here is largely futile. I do it because my conscience dictates this and not for any other reason.”
YES! It’s all about your own conscience, that’s why you do what you do. I learn a lot reading here, but that is not your responsibility. You have only your Self to watch for. As am I, for my Self. Meanwhile we meet each other just a little bit and in the reflections of each other we see our Selves and be able to learn what it is to be a conscious being. That is, if we want that and take some effort into that. Much love from me for ‘your stuff’. It helps me growing in consciousness. And again realizing I’m not alone in my agony. I have to accept life as it comes. It’s a lesson that keeps coming at me. Grrrrrrr.
American Civil War. Gettysburg and Pickett’s Charge. The charge never had a true chance. The south fighters were attacking very well defended line and attacking only one part of the line way foolish. When the southern fighters “won” their ground, they were then attacked by fighters from the north on either side. Lee IMO should have listened to Longstreet who told Lee to get between the North Army and Washington on well defended ground and bring the battle to them. It might have been like Fredericksburg, but Lee had to try it his way and failed.
Nato little battle is a lot like Lee at Gettysburg. Russian fighters need to simple make a small “hole” in their lines, encourage nato to take the bait and then crush them. by creating a bulge trap, nato will destroy themselves. Even though it was by western historians, It seems the Russians in WWII did a lot of this after Stalingrad.
Battle of Korsun-Cherkassy
Battle of the Bulge
But my point is not a Pincer attack but a Pincer trap formed by weakness in the center, drawing enemy forces in and then attacking from three strong sides. Bridgeheads or bulges can be very vulnerable to this kind of attack. An overeager force like Nato will easily fall in to this kind of trap
This was a very sincere, balanced, and sophisticated analysis that rings true (unlike what we are used to read or hear elsewhere).I enjoyed reading it in its entirety. Thank you. (I have a few related comments but I prefer not to express them publicly).
Dear Saker. Thank you mon ami. The psysops thing is so overwhelming, screaming at us every day, It’s hard to maintain the balance and perspective in the face of this noise. Thanks for concentrating on these issues and I hope you are keeping well and looking after yourself in these difficult times.
PSYOPs didn’t stop the common US soldier from “fragging” and ending the Vietnam War.
A demoralized army is finished. https://www.historynet.com/the-hard-truth-about-fragging/
Just cannot imagine that anybody would consider sacrificing foot soldiers or civilians under any circumstance particularly when the SMO was about minimizing casualties all around.
Hello everyone, I never intervene because I often find someone who expresses my thoughts better than me.
I use the google translator in English because I don’t know how to write well in the language and I hope in this way to pass on my concepts.
I live in Italy and therefore I am not objective, above all I have lived for decades within a system that has obviously conditioned me and which is therefore very different from the thinking of the average Russian citizen, this does not scare me, I try to respect the differences, they are opportunities for wealth.
The published analyzes are excellent, but I read some holes in those and in the comments.
The strategies of luring the enemy by revealing their weaknesses are also applied by the West towards Russia.
Example: there is talk of an energy crisis in European countries and it is true, but Russia overestimates it. Italy (one of the largest customers of Russian gas) is only 2 billion cubic meters from winter needs, and will most likely be able to cover these values with other imports and partial savings. Germany is certainly more in difficulty, but I am convinced that she will be able to overcome the crisis. Gazprom makes advertising videos portraying Europe as close to ice age, but it’s propaganda.
A couple of points to think about (economics):
1) the supply of gas to Europe will no longer be resumed as it was years ago, most likely by 2023 it will definitively cease, I stress definitively.
2) the Russian oil supply will be replaced by other countries
These two statements are my hypotheses, but I am fully convinced of them (I work in the European energy sector).
The two points mentioned above create a considerable economic and financial problem for Russia and one cannot always think about bailing out China unless the keys to the country are handed over to it.
It will not be easy for Russia to overcome the lost revenue.
A couple of points to think about (military):
1) to think that NATO cannot restore its arsenals by publishing articles, even Western ones, of shortage of stocks means not understanding that there are enormous interests that lead to certain claims. For example, articles such as that of the wall street journal, much publicized in recent weeks, are mainly used by arms companies to obtain further orders.
NATO’s arms production capacity is enormous, not to mention the potential conversion of part of the Western auto industry.
So you have to get out of your head that the West is running out of weapons, it’s just propaganda on one side and marketing on the other.
2) to think that Ukraine costs too much (80-100 billion dollars a year) is ridiculous, the West can easily afford these costs as it is at a crossroads: either it crushes the countries that want a new division of power or not will be able to bear the costs of an overestimated empire.
So the supply of weapons, instructors, mercenaries will continue and if Putin says they have been joking so far, well, NATO has also been joking so far.
We must think that this development of the conflict can only lead to a devastating world war.
Personal considerations:
a) Russia is much more European than Asian
b) the EU should think of Russia not as an opponent, but as a partner
c) the EU should think of a plan to acquire sovereignty, because today we are only an American military base with a little land around it
d) Russian citizens should quickly grow in awareness without clinging to issues of pride that are stupid and useless. Before thinking of any Russian empire, global military power, etc … it would be appropriate to think about bringing water and sewage to all Russian homes, free public school and free public health throughout russia, tackle the climate problem which could be devastating for russia (think clathrates in siberian permafrost)
e) I dream of a demilitarized Europe from Lisbon to the Urals, here no one wants to die, neither for Kiev, nor for Milan, nor for London
f) I hate the Nazis
I have no solutions to suggest, I am not a politician nor do I want to become one, the world is really complex. What I would like is friendship between peoples to seek common progress. This war is everyone’s responsibility, of the West that created a monster government in Kiev, of the West that let Europeans (non-EU citizens, Europeans in the real term) die in Donetsk as in Luhansk, Russians who failed to build a relationship with the media such as to “sell” their worldview and their needs, the lack of capacity in media marketing is not a huge problem only now from a military point of view, but also political first to achieve the right objectives without firing a shot.
Thank you
Mirko (yes, I have a Russian name because my mother always looked east)
NATO and EU consider they won the war:
Western elites consider that they are in a state of war and are trying to mobilise their societies on this basis. They believe that the victory in Ukraine will mark the beginning of additional wins against all other opponents. However, the high cost of this war on the West and the cooperation of all those targeted by this aggressive Western policy may compel the Europeans to review their approach to change since their nations are paying the heaviest price.
https://ejmagnier.com/2022/09/13/america-is-the-biggest-winner-and-europe-is-the-biggest-loser/
content removed .. saker has banned use of anonymous and spoofing of such .. get another name … mod
Well said. No further comment required. I hope everyone here reads and comprehends.
Yesterday I read this article https://nationalinterest.org/feature/toleration-liberalism-and-lessons-fractured-america-204658 which analyzes the fracturing of America from an unusual theological perspective.
>>Just two years after the Catholic Church completed its repudiation of Protestant doctrine at the Council of Trent (1545-1563), an Italian convert to Protestantism jumped into the fray. A layman trained as a lawyer, Jacopo Acontius delivered a brief that exposed the dark psychology of persecution in ways no one had ever attempted. His singular work, Darkness Discovered: Or the Devil’s Secret Stratagems Laid Open (1565), offered a defense of religious freedom that helped to revolutionize the relationship between church and state in the West.
(…)
The bitter sectarianism that enveloped sixteenth-century Europe offers a warning about the tribalism that now darkens American public life. Just as our modern culture wars have taken on a militant quality, so, too, did the disagreements over fundamental religious questions degenerate into violence. Europeans no longer seemed able to live together, as every dispute became a political question, framed in apocalyptic terms.<<
The 'psyops war' in the 21th century very much resembles the 16th century of religious strife & violence. The article in The National Interest recalls how common sense & reason were able to overcome fanaticism & intolerance.
Quite a good article, but there is such a thing as overplaying your hand which the Western press is now doing. A very good example of this was the 87-year-old Ukrainian shooting down a Russian aircraft with a shotgun, quite impossible, but he seems to have received a medal from the Ukrainian government for his efforts. I feel it is much better to do as the Russian MOD are doing and say nothing, most people are not completely stupid and over time will be able to sort these lies out for themselves, this is much better and a longer lasting lesson than the false statements from Kiev.
I think I’ve figured out why the propaganda war is so important to the Globalists, and why the narrative that “Russia is losing” is so important to the Globalists as well.
If the Globalist captive population believes “Russia is losing,” then they’ll believe a globalist false flag nuke attack as “Russian desperation” at which point there will be mass Globalist public acceptance for a global thermonuclear war.
As the Georgia Guidestones openly stated to reduce the world population to 500 million, and the Global Pharma clotshots haven’t killed enough yet, global thermonuclear war is their final option to reduce the population in the desired time frame.
If their plans are delayed too long, their financial deceptions and corruption will be exposed while most of the world population is still alive, which would be fatal for the Globalists.
Don’t forget, Schwab’s mother is a Rothschild.
The globalists are busy playing the “famine” card at present. The nitrogen fertilizer plant shutdowns across Europe due to gas prices are a big part of that, as are the never ending waves of regulations and restrictions on farming across the western world to reduce “greenhouse gases and global warming.
That will have a sizable impact on population and will be allowed to play out before the nuclear card gets played imho. The problem for the globalists is that it will take some time.
What seems to me more likely to cause the nuclear card to be used early is western/gloablist financial collapse caused by rapid debt contagion and derivatives counterparty failure stemming from the bankruptcy of major EU based industrial conglomerates. That could happen over a period of days to weeks, begining at any instant.
The idea that they can move quickly enough to prevent widespread knowledge that they are an irredeemable bunch of stanic scumbags is probably wishful thinking at this point. The internet has put paid to that, along with the abysmal quality of the political stooges they are expecting to do the heavy lifting.
I work with livestock to earn part of my living. When moving large mobs there is a thing you need to avoid by careful planning and execution. It is sending a mob to a place where the only way out is back the way they came. There is a point before the mob turns and becomes unstopable where it is evident there is trouble coming and from there to unstopable is a very short period of time. We are in that space. The problem for the globalists is that anything they do now reveals their presence and intent to the mob, and further shrinks that space.
Good points you are making. I remain optimistic, like I perceive you are also, at least to a degree.
The thing with the globalists now is that in order to make a plan as comprehensive as theirs, one must be both batshit crazy and quite stupid (arrogance and hubris being essentially varieties of stupidity). The bigger the plan, the more can and will go wrong. And once things are underway, it is impossible to change course.
Moreover, no organization can withstand serious changes, let alone one big haulover in a restricted period of time. The bigger the organization (like the current world economy and the current political system), the harder it is to carry out change. So in the end, whatever those globalist criminals are trying to do is destined to fail.
As far as the use of troops as bait in a feint is concerned, is it far-fetched to assume that in such cases volunteers who are aware of the plan are usually engaged? It would require the best trained individuals with steely nerves. Just a thought
Well don’t know about other Countries but in WW2 the British called it a rear guard action,it happened in our retreat to Dunkirk in 1940 in the face of the Nazi Blitzkrieg,those rear guard troops for the most part were killed or captured,some made it out once their job was done,which was to slow the enemy advance so the main force could withdraw to fight another day.