There is a lot of speculation about the current US/NATO operations in the Black Sea region. I would like to offer the following bulletpoint comments about what I believe is going on.
- If we add up all the US+NATO forces involved in this operation, they fall far short of what would be needed for an attack on Russia. Thus, in purely military terms, this is just a Kabuki theater, not a real threat to Russia.
- Both the Russians and the US commanders know that.
- The intended audience is the Ukrainian population whom the following “message” is sent: “we are here, we are invincible, we got your back, and if you happen to get into an open conflict/war with Russia, we will protect you“. Of course, not such commitment is formally made, only implied. This is an exact repeat of what happened in 08.08.08.
- At the same time, the hysterical warmongering in the Ukie media is going absolutely through the roof, these folks are now seriously considering not only “liberating” the Donbass and beating the crap out of the Russian military, some even want to “liberate” some Russian territory. These idiots actually very much look forward to a war against Russia!
Those interested in the details can check my previous entry on this topic here: http://sakerlatam.blog/the-saker-files/why-i-see-a-war-in-the-donbass-as-almost-inevitable/
Next, we have to always keep in mind the following crucial fact: the USA does not have what it takes to attack Russia. In purely conventional (non nuclear) terms, the US+NATO do not have the numbers needed in Europe to conduct any semi-successful attack against Russia. For example, if any US destroyer launches its (old and slow) Tomahawks towards Russia or Russian forces, this launch will be instantly detected and hypersonic missiles (or, alternatively, underwater torpedoes) will get to the USN ships even before the Tomahawks get anywhere near their intended targets. This is especially true for Crimea where Russia deployed a very modern and integrated air defense system capable of firing many more missiles than the USN ships can launch. If the US wanted to really attack Russia, then it would take them many months to prepare itself for such a huge undertaking.
The US Americans are not stupid, they know that, and they have zero need for such a situation.
In theory, a “thin” forward deployed force can also serve as a “tripwire”, but not in this case: why would the Russians ever feel the need to sink ships which present no military danger and which they can always destroy in minutes?
Likewise, folks at the Pentagon know that even if they launched a massive attack on Russia, especially a nuclear one, the USA would cease to exist in just a few hours.
Again, both the Russians and the US Americans know that.
And, again, the intended audience are the clueless Ukies which now are preparing for a “crushing victory over Russia”.
This is why I don’t see any circumstances under which the US would deliberately attack Russia (though a mistake or a quick escalation is always possible) and that is why I see a Ukie attack/provocation as inevitable (the Ukronazis in Kiev really have nothing at all to lose).
BTW – the EU is also gearing up for such a situation, already demonizing Russia even more than it has for the last decades. The 3B+PU are in full martial hysteria mode, especially the Poles who realize that triggering a war involving Russia is pretty much their last chance to remain of some relevance to the real Europe. And since Uncle Shmuel is putting pressure on the Europeans to fall in line, there are really very few European politicians who dare oppose the current verbal escalation against Russian (and Belarus).
Finally, the situation around Belarus is very dangerous indeed, as any local violence could quickly involve both Belarussian and Polish forces (along with a few NATO tripwire units). In that case, the adults in the room (Russia and the USA) would need to very quickly intervene to contain the situation and de-escalate. Since I do not believe that the US wants a war with Russia, I think that this is exactly what both sides would do.
So where are we headed? In my opinion, towards a crushing Russian military victory over whatever the Ukies throw at her followed by a no less crushing US political victory over the EU and Russia. The Ukies will be used as canon-fodder and they will lose some territory again (thereby getting rid of a population which hates them and which will never vote for the Ukronazis). The EU will have to fall in line behind Uncle Shmuel and the ruling classes of the Empire will finally get what they wanted all along: a very tense confrontation with Russia which they will then exploit to keep the Europeans nice and subservient. That is also the last option available to the Empire to shut down NS2.
Putin has announced that he will not order any special Russian military exercises in the Black Sea (which the MoD suggested). He did that for two very good reasons, one official one not so much:
- Official reason: we are the good guys, so we will de-escalate as much as possible
- Real reason: there is not need for any maneuvers at all, every US/NATO ship/aircraft is already tracked and the Russians can sink (or shoot them down) from their current position and state of alert.
The USN task force as seen on the displays of the Admiral Essen frigate
Besides, the US ships are already shadowed by the missile cruiser Moskva and the Admiral Essen frigate anyway, along with several advanced diesel-electric multi-purpose submarines.
The Kremlin is working very hard on trying to de-escalate all this, but it takes two to tango. The party which has the most to lose from all this would be the EU, but it is run by pliable and incompetent politicians who have no understanding, no vision and no spine. They won’t make a difference.
As for the people of the Ukraine, who will really lose more than anybody else, they have shown almost no ability to fight the Nazis in power. If anything, a state of war would make it even EASIER for the Nazis to deal with any and all opposition.
Hope dies last, and maybe some behind the scenes discussions between the USA and Russia can defuse the current standoff, but I am not very hopeful here. At least we know that the US and Russia are talking to each other on the highest levels, which is by definition preferable to a shooting war.
We have been on the brink in the past, will we cross over this time around?
I honestly don’t know.
Andrei
Thank you for your note. But I do not understand why the Donbass forces cannot be reinforce to hold the shock under the covert of the usual plausible deniability.
But I do not understand why the Donbass forces cannot be reinforce to hold the shock under the covert of the usual plausible deniability.
And what brings you to the conclusion that they are not being so reinforced?
Andrei, I was just about to ask this “common man” exact same question. With Donbass situation it is obvious that the ukie garbage is, once again, being actively encouraged to try some more stupid s**t, with hollow promises of USA/NATO “support”. What will happen, in my opinion, is that they WILL try and this time the Russian response will be quite definitive – there will be an “Iron Dome” established over Donbass, a-la Israel, only this one will be much more effective. Ukies, actually, need to pay close attention to what Russian Presidents says with regard to Donbass – and what he says is – that it is PROTECTED. He clearly stated it! When Russia protects something , it is absolutely protected, the rest also need to realise that fact.
But as we all know, the Hegemon knows only one MO – to “double down” even when an abject failure is clearly written on the wall. Same with this “naval group” they assembled and which is now floating aimlessly in the Black Sea being nice fat targets. Stupid as stupid come. What more can one say..
“Same with this “naval group” they assembled and which is now floating aimlessly in the Black Sea being nice fat targets”
They are assembled to gather intelligence and give some to Ukies too.
They know perfectly well that Russia won’t attack them (as Israel would), so they can push Ukies over the edge and confidently observe Russia military from close range, knowing that they won’t be harmed … except for some false flag incident managed by Israel through proxies.
They ought to be worried about their “allies” not for the Russians.
Because you point out that a Russian intervention could happen and the US could win a big political victory. Such an outcome would be a real and true waking nightmare.
Doesn’t matter they blamed Russia for the last war and they didn’t cross the border with their forces.
If war break out in Ukraine or Belarus
The first casualty of war will be a Financial crash hitting US.UK,EU,and Japan.
The Globalist Elite needs a scapegoat for their destruction of the post WWII world order.
Exactly. The western ruling class has realized that their ship is sooner or later going to sink, therefore they trying to ram it onto some rock; then they will claim the rock furiously rushed towards their ship, and they had no option but to attack the rock. The sinking of the ship is then the sole responsibility of the rock.
Meanwhile CNN is reporting “SNL takes kids to Ted Cruz street with Big Bird”
Ok, maybe the Ukraines need to read CNN and get real. See how much the U.S.A. is going to cover their back. grrr. . . .
Time for joint China and Russia naval exercises off US Coast for several weeks – China can deploy its aircraft carriers for distant missions.
How many Klub-K containers has Russia already deployed inside the USA I wonder ?
Forward deploying makes no sense for Russia for the exact same reasons it makes no sense for the USA: the further you are from your home base and the closer you are to your enemy, the easier it is for him to engage you. That also applies for the notion of Russia coming to the Gulf Coast or the US Atlantic coast. Besides, Russian can strike the continental the USA with her standoff weapons, why get closer with the launchers?
Finally, Russia’s military doctrine, force planning and deployment are all defensive in nature, designed to maximize the costs of any direct attack on Russia. This is economically much more effective too.
Paul Greenwood – Of course not. Russia and China should do absolutely nothing. Maybe apart from, only as a last resort, preventing the Nazis from mass murder in the Donbass.
The Mafia (the West) wants a new “Iron Curtain.” Now, in connection with the “Great Reset,” more than ever. They need a pretext for that (which “MH17” was in 2014).
Then it was still more about isolating Russia. Now, since the end of 2019, it is – for them to hold on to power – about utterly enslaving the West, and an “Iron Curtain” around this slave plantation.
And how many containers in Donbass. A question I never dared to ask.
I don’t normally read jingoistic imperial trash & understand how low Sputnik is viewed here in terms of journalistic credibility, but this was quoted by Sputnik today:
https://nationalinterest.org/feature/nato-arms-sales-ukraine-spark-starts-war-russia-196122
This empire analyst Carpenter displays some intelligence rather than the usual propaganda. He draws parallels of the situation in 404 today with Sakashvili getting baited by the empire’s “implied support” during 08.08.08, concluding with:
“Washington and its NATO partners need to back away from their increasingly dangerous policies. The Kremlin has made it clear multiple times that it regards Ukraine as a core Russian security concern, and that efforts to make that country a Western military ally risk crossing a bright red line. Adopting measures that encourage a volatile client to engage in provocations that it can’t sustain if its stronger adversary responds by escalating the confrontation is egregious foreign policy malpractice. Arming Ukraine with sophisticated weaponry is a textbook example of such folly. The United States, Turkey, and Kiev’s other enablers need to change course before they turn the simmering Ukraine conflict into a conflagration.”
Family members of mine have already been deployed to the Baltics…
No matter how much I respect Putin, I fail to understand how, after openly encouraging 404 orcs’ belligerence with Bayraktar drone sales, Rostec just announced that it is keen to sell to Turkey its 5th gen fighter aircraft technology, which is offensive not defensive like the S-400 system. If it goes ahead, this will come back to bite the people of Russia and its Eurasian allies which is a predictable pathetic outcome of a regional geopolitical gambit.
This sentence I find confusing:
“So where are we headed? In my opinion, towards a crushing Russian military victory over whatever the Ukies throw at her followed by a no less crushing US political victory over the EU and Russia. ”
I just don’t get it.
(Lavrov, or anyone else, Help!)
what I meant is this: if the Ukies force the Russian to intervene, this will be a HUGE political victory for the AngloZionist which will then be able to say “THERE is your proof that Russia is an aggressive country run by an aggressive leader, and they threaten all of Europe or even all of the world”.
Also, after such an event, all the EU leaders will have to fall in line behind the 3B+PU, thus crushing any European aspirations for sovereignty and making NATO the indisputable “owner and protector” of the European continent.
For the USA, that will be a dream come true.
Cheers
Will China stay quiet or will there be activity in the South China Sea? If US’ goal is just PR at the price of many losers won’t somebody want to make them pay?
Would the “crushing political defeat” for Russia be any less if it went beyond defending the existing borders in Donbass and instead went on to take Kiev and the rest of the Ukraine? That would at least prevent the US/NATO from building missile bases there, which I think is a given if the situation plays out as you fear.
I disagree with the notion that the US gains a political victory. When Russia reacts to the Ukies launching an attack (your premise, Saker), they will end 404 as a nation-state.
Ukraine will not only be defeated, it will be gone.
This is an enormous US political defeat not a victory.
The Ukie war crimes trials will be the talk of the world, not Russian aggression.
Russia will pull out all the documentation of war crimes of Ukraine, the rapes and torture, assassinations, etc.
And there will be NATO prisoners, US and UK and Poles, etc. for the West to beg for.
No US political victory when the shooting stops, Saker.
Two nightmares: Europe overrun by Ukie refugees and NATO involved with its first taste of war with Russia and receiving a butt-whipping and losing men, its air power and hundreds of prisoners.
It’s going to be 9-10 Debaltsevos if the Ukies don’t surrender in the first 4 hours.
I agree. PR will count for nothing once the reality sinks in that the US and NATO are impotent. Far from stopping NS2 the Europeans will be writing begging letters to Putin.
However, I have a feeling in my water that if the Ukies go full retard and attack the Donbass, the Russian response will be something both unexpected and totally decisive. What? Well, I’m not that clever, but people with access to all the intelligence and the necessary tools will have been planning this for ages.
Ukie refugees is exactly in empire’s plans to subjugate EU-vasals.
Any document about crimes committed by Ukraine is going to be totally ignored by the west and quite the opposite, any prosecution against Ukie criminals is going to be presented as a proof of Russian persecution of the Ukie “heros” etc. etc.
Common people in EU are going to be bombarded with Russofobia, so any hostility against Russia will be swallowed with hull, all terrible economy policies, freezing in the winter, high energy prices etc will be blamed on Russia.
And you think they will not consider it as a political victory?
I’m sorry, but what will change if Europeans think the Russians are the worst? Why should a Russians worry about, if they have an alternative? This may worry Russophiles among Europeans, but ordinary Russians should not be interested in lost and complexed people. Dostoevsky explained it nicely. If Russia opens a front in the Middle East and the arrival of gas and energy from that area would be prevented, the EU will have to deal and buy from Russia. That is why the whole scenario must be coordinated with Iran and China in the Pacific. The goal this time, if Russia intends to go to war, the complete matter must be resolved once for all. No more half solutions. Is the administration of “compromise” in Russia ready for consequences on its own ground? That awaits them sooner or later. Either they have the discipline of the spine and they will show it to the world, or they will lose the trust they have gathered among the UN members. Russia must finally act as a member of the UNSC. China too. Any further announcements, concerns and warnings play no role. The West is ready (if it needed) to make its own new UN, while Russia and China are constantly avoiding the obvious. The west need to be pushed into their autistic world, and then more and more countries will leave that circle. Russia and China should support regime changes, as Anglo-Zionists do. What’s the problem? Are they trying a fast on the “horned one”? John’s revelation nicely names all the participants in the West. Why pretending?
I don’t know why Russia hasn’t pronounced loud and clear to the entire world, from the moments that the Maidan coup instigated by the United States unfolded, as made abundantly clear in Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland’s own recorded words, that it is Russia standing up for legitimate government, freedom and democracy, not the United States and its phalanx of colluders and traitors amongst the criminal Ukie “elites.” The rights of the Russian “minority” within most of Ukraine, and in all of Crimea and the Donbas need to be protected every bit as much as the West claimed that the Albanian minority within Serbia deserved their own rump state, to be called Kosovo and ruled out of an American military base (Camp Bondsteel), carved from the greater nation of Serbia.
With clear genocide being perpetrated against the Novorossiyans by the Ukronazis (what’s the running death toll by now? Approx. 15,000?) the aggression is all quite clearly being perpetrated by the Ukies and supported by the Americans with weapons, training, loans and NATO “advisors.” EVERYONE in the world, including NATO and the EU, KNOWS this and that the American cover story is a total fabrication.
If America’s conspirators throughout the EU will not admit this truth when Russia provides a defense for the innocents within Crimea and the breakaway ethnic Russian provinces of Ukraine they will deserve to freeze throughout the winter if they damage the pipelines they need for their personal survival and economic well-being, and they will deserve to have their American military bases pulverized by defensive Russian actions fully elucidated in clear truths before Putin delivers what the diabolical Obama, Trump and Biden have been begging for since 2014. Any attacks on any Russians anywhere in “Ukraine” should be treated under the principle of “stand your ground” self defense which is widely embraced as a god-given natural right by most Americans.
If the Ukies cannot bear to live amongst Russian people, each faction should be sorted out and assigned to their own independent republics. The Russian ethnics should be assigned roughly half the country based on population alone. America should be charged the bill for reconstruction, but we know they are nothing but welchers and deadbeats who know only how to swindle and steal, so perhaps China can finance a rebuild of the Donbas along with Syria after the American occupiers are finally expelled from that scene of American-rendered genocide. The facts are known to all and eventually they will be published in the history books, maybe not for our generations to read, but the day will come. America’s last stand to preserve its tyrannical empire will be recorded as its most dishonorable hour.
I agree with your scenario up to a point – the EU/NATO West will fall in line but those entities are pretty much lost to Russia already and, as SmoothieX12 often argues, maybe the Russians don’t give a crap about what they think any more. I suspect, that on a global basis, the political benefits for the US will not be quite as clear cut as you suggest.
1. Even if the Western MSM echo chamber start blaring their anti Russian pro-Western propaganda round the clock, the world beyond the West has wisened up a lot in the last few years. Chinese mass media will play a very important role in this area in Asia Pacific region including SE Asia.
2. Any Ukraine military attacks that result in significant civilian casualties in the Donbass are going to balance out the “naked Russian aggression” narrative.
3. If the Russian military launches attacks that are not only punishing but also carefully calibrated to concentrate it’s most devastating and destructive weapons exclusively on the Ukrainian military and its national security and infrastructure assets, then I think Russia will not be so easily painted as the 21st century “Mordor” the US/West wishes it to be.
4. Re Lavrov’s previously asserted “asymmetrical response”, I wonder if the Russians will hoist the liberal West by their own petard and announce that they now will take the two breakaway Donbass republics and their 100s of thousands of Russian citizens under RF protection via the well accepted R2P (Responsibility To Protect) doctrine.
A Russian attack on Ukraine to defend the people of Donbass may be a political victory for the US in the context of EU/NATO/Russia but globally it will be a political defeat because:
1. The rest of the world will see this as yet another proof of unreliability of the US as an ally.
2. The impact of Taiwan will be disastrous. It will convince many more Taiwanese that the US has no intention of protecting them in case of the Chinese using military to enforce re-union. If Taiwan falls, Korea and Japan will not be far behind.
3.The impact on India will also be negative. India has been trying to get bigger committments from the USA so that it can have a closer strategic,economic and military alliance with the US. A debacle in Ukraine might just have the Indians giving up hope on the US.
4. Overall there will be a scramble by many vassals to break away from the US orbit as it will be be proven that the US is unable/unwilling to meet any committments made by the US. This will be an added burden on the US in terms of finance and efforts to reign in the vassals.
“: if the Ukies force the Russian to intervene, this will be a HUGE political victory for the AngloZionists…”
I keep reading this. If Russia does this, if it does that, it will be at fault…if someone provoces Russia, it is again at fault.
So, why even bother doing anything? Let Russia be slowly destroyed like an array of countries before?! Hell no! Strike fast and strike so hard as to instill fear deep inside the enemies’s bones. The collective West understands only force. It used force to get this far. Time to give them the taste of their own medicine.
Personally I would predict a ‘double whammy’ if there is a rush to war – sudden sharp and quick loss of the Ukraine to Russia with a sudden unexpected ‘re-unification’ of Taiwan with the PRC.
Just watch the US recover from that.
If you believe that the goal is to divide the world in a cold war between an evil “Authoritarian Axis” that can be economically strangled and white and pure “Democratic Allies” then that would be precisely the intended result.
Just as 911 and the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor ushered in new eras. Taiwan and Ukraine are pawns in this scenario. The chickens that must die to scare the European monkeys to use the Chinese saying.
Lavrov et Shoigu ont rencontre leur homologues francais a Paris cette semaine. En allant lire le compte rendu de la reunion sur le site du ministère des affaires etrangeres francais on peut lire que la france appelle a la plus grande fermete vis a vis de la russie sur la question du respect de l integrite territoriale de l ukraine. Les accords de minsk ne sont meme pas abordes comme s ils n existaient pas. Ceci n encourage pas a l optimisme dans la mesure ou les accords de minsk sont la seule voie qui mene a une resolution pacifique du conflit. Cela signifie que la france (c est a dire) l UE ne fera rien ou Presque pour eviter une guerre si les usa decident que la guerre est la solution.
Ma plus grande crainte est qu on est une escalade en ukraine et en bielorussie en meme temps. Dans ce cas eviter un clash otan russie sera plus difficile. Et surtout il faut considerer toutes les sanctions que les occidentaux vont imposer a la russie. Ca peut aller tres loin. L histoire nous apprend que de nombreuses guerres ont commence par des blocus economiques. J ai l impression que les usa ont decide de transformer la russie en etat pariat comme ils ont fait avec l iran. Que va faire la russie si cela devait arriver? Si en occident les militaires laissent faire leurs elites politiques eviter un conflit direct sera difficile.
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Lavrov and Shoigu met their French counterparts in Paris this week. By going to read the report of the meeting on the site of the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs we can read that France calls for the greatest firmness vis-à-vis Russia on the issue of respect for the territorial integrity of Ukraine. The Minsk agreements are not even approached as if they did not exist. This does not encourage optimism as the Minsk Accords are the only way leading to a peaceful resolution of the conflict. This means that France (ie) the EU will do little or nothing to avoid a war if the US decides that war is the solution.
My biggest fear is that we are escalating in ukraine and belorussia at the same time. In this case, avoiding a NATO clash in Russia will be more difficult. And above all we must consider all the sanctions that the West will impose on Russia. It can go very far. History teaches us that many wars began with economic blockades. I have the impression that the usa decided to transform russia into a pariat state as they did with iran. What will Russia do if this should happen? If the military in the West allows their political elites to avoid direct conflict will be difficult.
Russia is self sufficient in agriculture, energy and weapons. Anything else they need can come from Asia.
All the fears that Russia would be ‘isolated’ and became a ‘pariah’ state show that the ‘Eurocentrism’ is firmly entrenched in the collective mentality of the West. The ‘West’ (and count the Americans too) live under the illusion that the ‘Rest’ needs them, that they cannot live without them. They cannot stomach the fact that the World goes ‘East’ (and ‘North’).
Would you say that the US sanctions on Syria and on Iran have no impact? If you think that then you are wrong. I agree life exists outside the western paradigm but you should not underestimate the impact of western economic warfare capabilities. They can create lots of problems to everyone.
If Russia wants to help the Donbass forces then by all means give them military aid/equipment, intelligence support but I see no reason to send troops into Ukraine if they are attacked by Kiev. I realise many now have Russian passports but the fact remains this is not Russian territory. This would be a big PR coup for the US.
Acompanhamos do Brasil com perplexidade as ações nefastas dos EUA nas Fronteiras da Rússia! Para muitos brasileiros o cenário na Europa é de Pré Guerra!
google translate .. mod
We follow from Brazil with perplexity the nefarious actions of the USA in the Borders of Russia! For many Brazilians, the scenario in Europe is Pre-War!
Para muitos, não! Para pouquíssimos brasileiros, porque a quase totalidade deles não sabe nada de nada. Não sabem nem onde fica o brasil, quanto mais a ucrânia. Eu sei do que estou falando.
Biden is sinking in the polls. Inflation will bite especially for winter heating, and people having less in their wallets at the festive shopping season isn’t going to improve matters. A nice, convenient war with a bogeyman that has already been demonised to the majority may prove too much of a temptation for a saint, let alone the reptiles in DC.
I’m not so sure it would be such a victory for the UE and the US/UK.
As there is war,oil and gas prices will skyrocket in full winter period.Peasants EU citizens will be everything but happy when they will receive their bills or go to fill in their cars/trucks tanks.
Even without Russia cutting off the gas transit.
I have zero knowledge in energy, but technically is it possible to ‘select’ friendly countries in the delivery for exmple Serbia, +- Hungary and sadly Turkey, cutting off deliveries to the warmongers countries only?
As Russia sells gas via LNG also and via pipes to Asian markets, of course it would be a loss for Russia for sometime, but westerners have very little options left than to negociate.
Macron wants to be reelected in april, expect in that scenario a Yellow Vests x 10 return in the streets.
Tonight they say there will be no lockdown..but the possibility remains open, which means there will be a lockdown, very practical in case of YV massive return.
Inflation which is already high due to US/EU massive QE, will explode to 1970’s levels(above 15%).
This would be unsustainable for the EU.
When war starts a possible Stock exchange krach is possible, as the stocks are in full buble mode, maybe that is their goal(great reset), nothing better than war as covid did not act as they would have liked?
Expect at the same time a coordinated attack by Israel on Iran, they held COVID war games with PM Bennett inside a nuclear command bunker.
Thank you Saker, for this sober and astute summary of the current situation in the Black Sea region. You gave up part of your Sunday to study and report the tactical analysis to calm our worst fears and I appreciate that very much. I’m still in a pensive state of mind and will continue to monitor this topic on your blog and others until I read that U.S. Navy ships are leaving the area.
Political and military strategists loyal to the Biden administration are using this to ramp up tension in order to deflect away from the miserable performance of the U.S. President in overseeing the American economy. A coalition of U.S. States have formed together and seek legal redress in the federal courts against the domestic polices put forth by the White House.
Biden is the Chief Executive in name only. A hybrid faction made up of corporate fascists, Pentagon stooges for the weapons industry, progressive socialists and Wall Street globalists are all pulling his strings. He is too addled in the brainpan to be orchestrating foreign policy. This is a recipe for disaster and his Vice President in completely inept to assume the reins of power should Biden step down for “health” reasons.
A brief breath of relief is all we have at the moment and we should not assume this insane roller coaster is going to stop with all the deranged madmen involved. As Saker suggested, it all could go “hot” at any time and we need to pay attention and be prepared.
I think Russia is tempted to do a China unplug, – the kind that took place a while ago disconnecting the communication to all of the US and Taiwan’s ships. After that everybody had to hurry up home.
This is a back up article about the recent US forces loss of power.
https://whiskeyandgunpowder.com/posts/it-failed-miserably-what-if-the-us-lost-a-war-and-nobody-noticed
I thought the Russians did this a few years ago when the US went strutting around in the Black Sea a couple of years ago, And the US ships couldn’t turn around fast enough when none of the comms worked.
1. ….. In my opinion, towards a crushing Russian military victory over whatever the Ukies throw at her followed by a no less crushing US political victory over the EU and Russia …….. Qatar was initially an ally and a very good friend of the West. Marked by the Anglo-Zionists and their Euro vassals as the propagator of the modern messages of Islam. With the collapse of the Arab Spring, they had to wash their biographies and blame someone, so they blamed Qatar for financing not only good terrorists but also bad ones (Muslim Brotherhood) who had a direct impact on the development of Wahhabism in the EU and Israel (Gaza).They dared to make life difficult for the so-called international community, which is why they still pay the price.
Let me remind you that Milosevic was declared as a “factor of stability” by the West while he was silent on the loss of Krajina and 30% of Republika Srpska. When he did what he needed to do, he was sold by the same Westerners as the “butcher of the Balkans”. And accused of ethnic cleansing and planned genocide of Albanians, and just the opposite happened. Serbs were expelled from Kosovo.
We all know the role of Saddam Hussein in the war with Iran and later its end after the West first gave him the green light to enter Kuwait and then attacked him.
So I agree with Saker’s conclusions. What is not clear to me is whether the people learn something from history or at least the services of individual states. They have been using the same “muster” for years and it always passes through. How is that possible? For whom work the secret services and wwhose interese represent? Without the malignant treason of the services, Anglo-Zionist “fitness metro—xuals with teenager brains” would have no chance anywhere.
2 …… If anything, a state of war would make it even EASIER for the Nazis to deal with any and all opposition…..That is why Russia should go to the end and as a member of the UNSC protect not only the Russian but also the Ukrainian people from Nazism. Or is it better to leave a hole in the west of Ukraine like it was left in Idlib?
I think we all know what the Russian red-line is:photos of dead young Orthodox Christian Women in the Donbass with their fetuses blown out of their wombs. I mean, would the Russian Military allow Vladimir Putin to do nothing?
If the US wins in the short-term…what does it win in the long term?
What-Who are the special interests in the US driving US policy towards Russia? Or is America just a zombie nation?
The Military / Industrial / Intelligence complex. The ‘War on Terror’ never had the power that the old confrontation with the Soviet Union had. So, they had to revive it. It doesn’t matter whether Russia plays along or not. Elites control all the institutions of the US (like most countries) and in terms of foreign policy, the elites that matter most are those on the military side. Having elites rule your country is not necessarily a problem, but when those elites are completely corrupt and stupid to boot … well it is a problem. This is independent of the radical leftist attempt to remake the culture of the US, which is even more dangerous to American Citizens … outside of the possibility of the foreign policy elites starting a nuclear war.
The ‘special interests’ were oil and gas, that USEU believed that were a free-for-all bonanza.
When I look at a map, I see an almost contiguous conflict zone from the Baltic to the Caspian Sea. (Stand off in Belarus, war in Ukraine, Black Sea confrontations, skirmishes in the Caucasuses…)
Maybe this is also part of the objective ie. to create a “fire-wall, part of the empire’s containment strategy against Russia.
It is NATO that needs to be constrained, not Russia.
This Is a highly likely scenario. But only 5% of the human mankind Is living in the so called Western Europe.
Serbian girl: “Maybe this is also part of the objective, i.e. to create a “fire-wall,” part of the empire’s containment strategy against Russia [i.e. against the free world].” . . . Yes, that’s it!
Putin is very cool. He doesn’t give them any chance [it’s probably also the main reason why Putin’s Russia is going along with “covid”]. He cannot be provoked. That’s why they hate him so much.
@Andrei
“…followed by a no less crushing US political victory over the EU and Russia.”
That would happen only if EU is completely zombified and do not react at all. EU is multiple nation construct. Core nations are states that was at odds with Anglos through whole history. It is imposible they would willingly follow Anglos into their own eternal servitude. I am perfectly aware that there are no visible evidence for such statement. Buth instead of question my common sense, I will question reasons WHY we can not see meaningfull anti-Anglos opposition in EU.
My guess is because we all are looking in the wrong place. Internet is firmly controlled by Anglos, and they are able to bias anyones perception. Their position is presented through looking glass of “social amplifier” while their oponents are distorted. This is powerfull propaganda weapon but it is not a real weapon.
It’s usefulness is limited because of the basic human psyche. Someone can feel rage and act aggresively instigated by false beliefs, but when war REALY starts, basic insticts (like fear, pain) takes over. Resulting in instant sobering effect.
Being exposed to real lifelong hardship, injustice and oppresion makes will much durable.
EU citizens were exposed to good life for way too long to have such will. Now they are expected to die for the New American Century???
They are not stupid. They (all) are opportunists.
Andrei, I won’t challenge your “oppinion”. I want to expand it a little. When Anglos get to the point of political victory, Germany and France will betray them. Others will follow. (Maybe Poles won’t.)
Russia just must be in the shape to deal crushing blow to any of them at all times.
To prevent second thoughts.
” When Anglos get to the point of political victory, Germany and France will betray them”
Vous êtes peut être trop optimiste pour la France, tant que nos dirigeants et la caste qui les entourent ne seront pas changés jamais ils n’arrêteront d’obéir à oncle Shmuel.
Regardez Macron avec les sous marins Australiens, il a fait son petit caprice quelques jours puis est aller se faire humilier par le vieux Biden et maintenant l’affaire est close.
Comme disait De Gaulle en son temps, les élites bourgeoises française ont toujours trahis la nation.
On peut constater que ça n’as pas changé.
Trad :
You may be too optimistic for France, as long as our rulers and the caste around them are not changed they will never stop obeying Uncle Shmuel.
Look at Macron with the Australian submarines, he did his little whim for a few days then went to be humiliated by old Biden and now the case is closed.
As De Gaulle said in his time, the French bourgeois elites have always betrayed the nation.
We can see that it has not changed.
@Sylvain
“You may be too optimistic for France”
Si c’est la vérité, Macron serait plus puissant que Louis XVI ne l’était. Ou les Français du XXIe siècle sont plus faibles que les sans-culottes.
Lequel est-ce?
——————-
If that is the truth, Macron would be more powerfull than Louis XVI was. Or 21. century Frenchmen are weaker than sansculottes.
Which is it?
To cite you, after each empty click, the bang is closer. They are already talking about shutting NS2 because the Kremlin is not doing enough with Lukashenko and the immigrants.. so in the end allowing the the pipeline construction was a ruse de guerre to stop it with other tricks? But UE still need desperately gas, I bet the winter will cool down warm heads.
Let me ask an off-topic question: I heard an usually well informed source that in China there is a fracture between he political leadership, to keep as long as possible the current situation, and the military, that would like to force the event to “see the bluff” of the US defending Taiwan. Do you have info on this? Is it reasonable?
Cris
I think in every country which has a reasonably powerful military, there is just such a fracture. The military in every country want to use their toys. I imagine China is no different.
The odd thing (probably a good one) is that in the USA I detect the reverse division. The military (or many of them) recognise they have been outgunned and now are the more cautious ones, as opposed to the political class who have their brains set in the post cold war mode ie USA the mighty, in a uni polar world.
I agree with your analysis. My worry is that the Administration is a free for all. Messages change every week. Who will country 404 listen to?
Another question is would they try to pull this off in winter? Seems crazy. But if the eventual outcome is predetermined might as well get it over with. The EU is in an energy crisis and losing Russian gas will destroy their competitiveness and they’ll become Union 404.
Anyway those are my thoughts.
Russia fears a war against Ukraine (not the war itself, but its consequences). So, maybe it would be wise to make the West feel fear too.
Putin might warn the West that, if Russia is cornered into war against Ukraine, then that would mean war against NATO and the US too.
That would be a very dangerous game, but… is there a better option?
That is an insane idea with all due respect. The collective west is rotting from within. Best keep out of their way.
Mas isso o Putin já disse em abril passado quado concentrou dois exércitos de armas combinadas na froteira com a ucrânia por conta das provocações nazistas e alertou que se houvesse um ataque a Rússia ele atacaria os centros de comando da otan em toda a Europa. Ele disse algo assim como “quem fizer isso vai se arrepender como nunca se arrependeu antes”
80.000 kilos of weapons arrived today from the US in Kiev.
Here we go again… From a country that refuses to learn from past mistakes, (Afghanistan etc..) the US Embassy in Kiev decided to boast about its latest ‘assistance’ for Ukraine which comes in the form of 80,000 kilos of ammunition. #Donbass
https://twitter.com/crlplus1/status/1459994084509114381/photo/1
In a war how many hours will 80,000 kgs of munitions last?
One hit.
No matter what PR success for US it would it be should Russia dismember Ukraine in response to a Ukie attack, it would be temporary, until a crisis besieges uncle Shmuel elsewhere. In the meantime, new facts on the ground would be established in Russia’s favour. The US would need a kineticly bloodied nose somewhere to sit up and pay attention to the new world order, and Ukraine would be a logical and useful place for a nosebleed.
UK press today
” a task force of up to 600 UK troops is on standby to deploy in Ukraine amid fears that Russian troops massing near the border are planning an invasion.
Units from the SAS and Parachute Regiment are preparing for an urgent deployment after defence chiefs and the head of MI6 advised Downing Street that Russian troop movement represents a clear and present danger to Ukraine and the West.
‘The high readiness element of the brigade was told it may need to deploy at very short notice,’ a source told the Mirror.
‘Between 400 and 600 troops are ready. Their equipment is packed and they are ready to fly to Ukraine and either land or parachute in. They have trained for both eventualities.’
This is the tripwire force that Andrei mentioned in the essay.
But the UK military chief doesn’t think it’s a good idea, in not so many words:
The general then warned politicians that the belligerent “nature” of some of their policies could lead to a situation in which “escalation leads to miscalculation.”
https://www.rt.com/uk/540207-british-general-risk-war-russia/
Let me tell you something about the Black Sea because I sailed across it a long time ago in winter. You don’t want to be on a ship in the Black Sea in winter. The winds that blow are from the strict north, icy. The sea does not cause excessive waves as in the Atlantic, but sharp and short moderate to high size. But the rolling of the sea stops every ship at speed. The biggest problem is the short and relatively high waves to which the 120-meter ship climbs its half of its length to the top of the wave, so that after climbing, the bow crashes into the oncoming wave. In space your body crosses ~ 50 meters in 3 seconds and then brutally stops when the bow hits a wave. Your face is greenish or pale as before death. The 2500 GRT tanker I was on managed to make only 4.5 Nautical miles in 24 hours as the storm was. Crews on NATO ships in the Black Sea will not be able to operate efficiently or maneuver quickly now that bad weather is coming. The crews will be half-dead and without Russian action. It is also difficult to track radar reflections in bad weather. False reflections can occur on radars and anything can happen to operators at launch stations on both sides. The Black Sea is a third party in a potential conflict to be reckoned with. And it has its own rules by which no one can do anything.
Well said! The Sea always gets a vote.
I recall a pal who was in the expedition to Falkland War, aboard ship. The South Atlantic is also quite rough, and the marines were all in poor shape.
I wonder about how a USN destroyer would ride in the seas you describe. Cracks happen. Circuits short. Moral deteriorates…while nearby submarines ride easy and ashore forces rest at weapons station. As for Mt Whitney, she’s a roller and not designed for the Black Sea. It way be that damage, real or fictional, could create an excuse to retreat and return the OTAN / US ships to their homes.
I keep thinking of the Persian defeat at Salamis…Persia did not “know the ground” as well as the Greeks. Persians, having been deceived, rowed ’round all night looking for the Greek fleet, only to meet the well-rested and well-versed in local sea conditions Greeks the next day. Most Persians could not swim, and those who made shore were killed. Persia, having lost the ability to supply by sea, was forced to retreat. Who has the least favorable logistic train? What State, what navy, knows the Black Sea best?
Xerxes may have been smarter than “some” modern “folks”.
Hysterical Poland continues…… note ref to Bel troops giving migrants weapons( whatever that is)..enemy troops……
“The Polish Border Force is expecting a major assault at the Belarusian border by armed migrants tonight
They say Belarusian soldiers are arming and instructing migrants to attempt to cross into the EU state
Attacks in two separate remote border locations yesterday saw hundreds of migrants manage to enter Poland
Polish Border Force guards say 77 were captured and deported but around 150 managed to escape
Poland is braced for a major assault by migrants on its frontier with Belarus tonight after receiving intelligence of a huge build up of enemy troops.
Polish Border Force guards claim their Belarusian counterparts are issuing the thousands of stranded migrants with instructions, equipment and weapons to force their way into the EU.
The attack is believed to be planned for frontier at Kuznica, one of two main crossing points from Poland to Belarus.
A spokesman for the Polish Border Force told MailOnline: ‘After a ‘quiet’ night in the vicinity of the camp in Kuznica, we are currently observing that more groups of armed officers of Belarusian services are located in the place.
‘We are noticing a commotion among migrants. There is also a TV broadcast van.’
He added: ‘Some tents are starting to disappear. Migrants get instructions, equipment and gas from Belarusian services.
‘You can see that the Belarus side is getting ready today for a big attempt at crossing the border.
‘Our forces are ready for action.’
It comes after the Polish Border Force said Belarusian soldiers engineered two mass migrant incursions into Poland last night in which some 77 people were detained and deported…..”
UK Mail xclusive
I have my eyes on the brewing humanitarian crisis on the border between Belarus and Poland. I’ve seen war games similar to this with a humanitarian crisis in Kaliningrad and Russia’s reaction to this. There is a 40 mile stretch known as the “Suwalki Gap” that is of vital importance to the Baltic states as it represents the only land route into the Baltic states. The base in Kaliningrad effectively makes the Baltic Sea a Russian pond. Russia has positioned some it’s best units in the so called “Smolensk Gate” and I am sure this has stimulated quite a reaction in Poland. A force this size is not necessary to defeat Ukraine and could easily smash Poland’s armed forces. Think about that!
I am sure there has been some sleepless nights in Foggy bottom. Ukraine is a side show. To me it looks like NATO is trying to provoke a large European war. NATO has zero chance of winning without resorting to some pretty extreme measures. Small wonder the CIA director made a visit to Moscow very recently. I think the topic of discussion probably had very little to do with Ukraine and the idiots running that failed state.
I understand that giving the migrants access to the EU borders is payback by Belarus for the ending by the West of Belarusian airline flights to the EU, but this is playing with fire and Lukashenko needs to be careful he does not overplay his hand. It is a perfect issue for the Polish, Baltic State and NATO bloc far right to mobilise their populations for war.
I would say that Lukashenko has made his point and now needs to back off on this issue. Erdogan can get away with this kind of stunt because Turkey is a NATO ally of the West. Belarus is not and different rules apply to perceived enemies (real or imagined) of the West.
It is also too easy for the West to play the ‘humanitarian’ p2p card on this question (immigrants from hot climates freezing to death on the border), which can become a lever for war. Very dangerous.
Correction: r2p not p2p (peer to peer). I meant the Responsibility to Protect doctrine, the latter day euphemism for the 19th century imperialist notion of ‘the white man’s burden’.
RT is reporting this:
Words are not enough to resolve the refugee crisis on Poland’s border with Belarus, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki has said, demanding that NATO take “concrete steps” to deal with the issue.
“There is no doubt that things have gone too far,” Morawiecki told the Polish PAP news agency on Sunday, adding that “words alone are not enough to stop” Minsk, which Warsaw has accused of orchestrating the border crisis.
The prime minister also revealed that he and the leaders of Latvia and Lithuania were considering invoking Article 4 of the NATO Treaty.
I wonder how far it will escalate. And what nato will to help poland. Germany took more than 1 million migrants a few years ago so invoking article 4 for 4000 migrants from belarus is ridiculous. This escalation is completely ridiculous and fabricated by poland and the baltic states. To what purpose?
To Laurent
To what purpose? To get as much money from Brussels as they can scam by pretending to be some victims here!
@Laurent
Gównopolska is driven by its extremely retarded ideology. If this wasn’t happening at Gównopolska’s borders and if it wasn’t Belarus who brought the migrants to that border, this very minor number of people would almost certainly have been taken in by the EU already. The Poles are not happy about ”polluting” Western Europe with people indifferent to Latin Christianity, hence their border wall nonsense. The EU couldn’t possibly care less about the Poles’ Papist obsessions (Brussels is having quarrels with them over several issues already). But what does unite the EU apparatchiks and Gównopolska is their total hatred of Lukashenko and the people of Belarus. Anyway, the Poles will be spared the ”intolerable burden” of hosting the migrants herself but, thanks to Russia, they will be settled somewhere in the EU. I would bet on Germany.
Isn’t there also an element of US domestic politics here? I don’t know whether Danchenko will implicate other higher up in the DNC food chain or, if he does, any further indictments will be made, but I can’t help that think that the Clinton machine and the DNC would really like a little war right now to distract from this s**t at home.
Why is this happening? If I’m not mistaken it was D. Orlov who pegged this from the start. The strategic idea is for the imperium to provoke a debilitating division in the camp of the opponent, in this case by starting a war between Ukraine against Russia. It’s like the Brits leaving south Asia. Forever afterwards we will witness endless fighting between Hindus and Muslims. In the face of the Maiden aggressions, the Russian leader adamantly refused to take the bait. Instead, by staying out of the fray it became a Ukrainian civil war and thus the debilitation falls to the side of empire and Europe. This is why Moscow adamantly refuses to assume responsibility as a Minsk signee. The Western leaders and their hacks have done everything possible to change the terms of reference here. That’s what’s important to them. Empire gains by divide and rule. The idea is to cause a division in Russia. Happily, Russia is ruled by political adults who parry these clumsy thrusts. I don’t think they will change course now. Again, the main thing here is political. The Biden admin desperately needs a win. Any win. A win moves the civil strife over to the other side of the line, on the opponents side. That’s it. I think that’s what it’s all about. Accordingly I expect the Russian response to remain what it’s been all along.
I see a problem. In case of a ukrainian attack in eastern ukraine donbass forces will fight and both sides will suffer casualties. Let’s say Russia would not intervene. What would prevent nato to blame Russia anyway to put more sanctions and more pressure? Nato has been saying Russia invaded ukraine in 2014 for years even if it’s not true.
Western countries blame Russia for anything without any evidence just look at Skripal and navalny affairs and the mh17.
Hi, thanks for responding. What matters politically is Russia’s status at the UN. The Western press can say what it likes but Russian’s veto rights in the Security Council depends on world opinion as expressed in the General Assembly. The Russian leadership must take care to ward off all accusations of aggression that have any real basis that could be used to sway non Western opinion. I think that’s the bottom line. But as per the argument I made, the noises that come from the Western media are proportionate to the irritation felt by the hegemonic elites that their gambit in Ukraine backfired. Instead of a civil war among the Slav enemy that they were hoping for they’re stuck with a civil war within their new vassal that they are helpless to squash.
Kevin, Biden is, quite literally, a bookmark. I assure you that we are watching a movie. If you will kindly refer to the May 2011 photograph taken in the White House Situation Room during the Bin Laden Raid, and if you will please compare that to the video precisely one-year later during the VP debate with Speaker-of-the House Paul Ryan, you will see, within the space of 12 months, that he had been replaced. And so it is today. The “New World Order” tragedy is moving, by means of peristaltic contractions, out of the body-politic to swirl the bowl and vanish.
Saker
This may not be the place for this but your comment I would find informative. I am detecting a slight shift within the USA (and Australian) far right regarding Russia. Now while i would not want to be allied with most of these people, (white supremacists and their dupes) they nevertheless are a significant component of the USA white working class (middle class in US jargon), and also of recruits to the military.
In other words the anti Russian rhetoric may just not work anymore. Hollywood is still working hard to push it but I am not sure it is working. Certainly in Australia, the Russians have been demoted as demons, with that role now clearly given to the Chinese.
Saker
Again slightly off topic but not really given the role of the UK as chief anti Russia warmonger.
it seems highly likely that the UK is about to suffer severe emotional trauma, as the ageing Queen appears to be quite seriously ill. Negotiating this emotional trauma will be hard for any government and Bojo is not skilled at this.
Charles is not well liked, especially in the former colonies. Personally i have no ill will towards him- nice enough old buffer, but I find myself in a minority of 1 in most cases. It will certainly weaken the ties of the colonies to old England. There could even be moves to substitute Charles for William. The Kate versus Meaghan dispute might broaden from women’s gossip mags to US/UK tensions.
So what will the UK do? It may become totally focused on the pageantry of funerals and coronations, or it may seek a distraction from it all via a war. Trouble is countries in emotional stress are unpredictable.
A review of the U.S. Naval Institute website discloses zero articles on USN Black Sea deployment dating back to October 20th. Quite possibly, the USN destroyers are not even there and we’re seeing file footage and still photos only taken months ago. Removed. Mod. The existence of an overpowering shadow government in the “states,” is believed by 100 million Americans. It is well understood by those fighting the satanic pedophiles occupying US public office that Russia and America are on the same side just as they were when the Baltic Fleet wintered-over in New York harbor 1862-1863 when President Lincoln and Czar Alexander balanced against Britain and France in a classic display of Mearsheimer-Waltz Offensive Realism. One can read Lincoln’s address to Congress of December 3, 1861 to see that he realized that it was the Rothchild’s and the British royals’ bankers that posed the only external threat. Likely, late this year this early phase of the struggle against the British-Vatican Globalists will be revealed along with a century of unimaginable global corruption. It will be seen that Varangians & Yankees fared the worst in that. But no longer. A new day. WWG1WGA
And, by the way, Saker, as to your “old and slow” description above, I kindly refer you to a British attack on the Italian Fleet at Taranto, February of 1941, when the British carriers launched “old and slow” bi-planes that sunk 3 battleships (and other craft). The British lost few planes. Being “old and slow,” Italian AA gunnery simply “led” them too much (shooting in front). Kill-Chain considerations and ship mobility have not yet entered the “mach-7” hypersonic argument. I assure you that this is a purely academic argument among peers. Cheers.
Aye, Andrei, the situation is very dangerous.
The Minsk Agreement is dead, if I read what VVP said in his interview with Rossiya TV correctly. France and Germany (ie EU) are just playing games with people’s lives in the Ukraine. So, no hope of a political resolution.
The question now is, what can RF do to prevent an assault on the Donbass? Or, to put it bluntly, how do they deter the deluded leadership of a country, whose people RF considers brothers, from (re)starting hostilities? Talking to Zelenski is no good; action is needed. But, then again, there’s precious little that RF can do overtly to disrupt Kiev’s preparations for war; perhaps more damage can be done in the domain of special services operations.
I’m working here on the premise — the most likely one — that the US and RF don’t want to fight a war with each other. Perhaps Gen Gerasimov can present Gen Milley a small memo outlining what RF will do to the Ukrainian field army should hostilities start — total destruction of the leadership, equipment and infrastructure of the field army; and war making capacity of the Ukraine within a week. Others won’t be molested unless they interfere directly. There’ll be no general mobilisation of RF forces although of course the usual readiness activities will continue. The US has no reason to doubt RF’s capability to do this and it knows RF does not make threats it cannot or will not deliver. US may react by ordering Kiev to stand down; that’s well and good. If the US does nothing, so be it; but keep the phone lines open.
Andrei:
Typical shenanigans by the powers and principalities and due cause for worry but my heart says not this time. And the idea that the US is ready to go all in here, it just feels off, the timing is not good:
1) Is there anyone really in charge here to be able to push all in like that? My sense is our ‘government’ is a series of power bases that can work in unison but for the most part pursue ephemeral gains of prestige and power over the others. Going toe to toe with the Russkies seems a hard sell at this juncture.
2) Particularly given the nature of the militaries involved. EU/NATO wants no part of a serious hot war with Russia, aside from perhaps the lamentable Poles. Either way, they are not prepared. I suppose the UK could provide some targets to shoot at but I’d question the Germans ability to even get a full squadron into action. And as for the US military, I could give endless reasons why their readiness and morale must be dismal at best. Surely even our Myopic generals must have misgivings. The Ukies will get slobber-knockered and the US will likely be forced to restrict itself to sharply worded messages. Yes, this could be very harmful diplomatically, but at the same time it would be yet another in a series of humiliations for our ‘defense forces’, which are already at post-Vietnam levels of self doubt.
3) As for our generals, “So your plan is, let me get this straight, to fight the Russians in winter?” They may be delusional but they do read history, it’s a stretch for me to really believe they are that mentally bankrupt. But, then, I could be wrong. In any case, I smell a bluff. No reason for Russia to make any major moves other than quiet preparations and consult with their partners. Clearly the US hopes to provoke an incident, which may be unavoidable. I would suggest channelling Botvinnik; continue to improve one’s own position such that any move the opponent makes weakens their own. I see no strong moves for the US here.
I think the US government is far more broken than even it recognizes and is playing a desperation move in the hope that Russia makes a big mistake, and they can capitalize on it for their propaganda machine.
If I were Russia I would false flag myself with an early attack so as to create a just cause for retaliation,
and remove any Ukie threats with the minimum of destruction.
“…a no less crushing US political victory over the EU and Russia.” There are at least a couple of things that might complicate the US achieving this. Firstly, in response to the US shrieking “See, we told you the Russians are aggressive”, the response might be “Well, in that case why didn’t you pull the rug from under the Russians by encouraging the Kiev authority to implement the Minsk Agreements? And when push came to shove, why didn’t you come to the Kiev authority’s aid?”. Secondly, it is possible that some NATO member countries, individually and on their own initiative, might be unable to resist intervening in a general war between Russia and the Kiev authority, in the hope of taking a piece of the Ukraine pie for themselves. Poland, Hungary and Romania for example. They might only do so following the disintegration of the Kiev authority, they might use the pretext of restoring stability and law and order, and they might admit that, no, they are not going home only in the long run. Nonetheless, it would be harder to make an accusation of Russian aggression stick with NATO member countries piling in as well.
NATO member states are yet to reach a consensus on Ukraine’s possible accession to the organization, despite Kiev’s determination to be admitted into the American-led bloc, its Secretary-General revealed in an interview on Sunday.
Speaking to Axios’ Jonathan Swan, Jens Stoltenberg explained that his organization has strengthened its partnership with Kiev, but the group is not ready to accept Ukraine as a member.
extract from rt today…..soooo….are they admitting this is all just play or trying to manufacture consensus….or if some individual members go it “alone” as we have certainly have seen evidence of this from USA and UK….to try and drag others along…how will that affect Nato?? Is it politically more fragile than we suspect?
Or could Poland continue with its political hysteria regime change and actually try military action against Belarus?
Hmm .
This assumes the Russians don’t learn the lessons of proxies…..
1. Use the Novorosians to take everything east of the Denipr.
2. Use the Abkhazians to take the Black Sea Coast west of S. Ossetia and Armenia…
3. Use pseudo russian elements under cover of Arab asylum seekers to take the baltics..
The key to teaching a lesson here is to shutup and act…
NATO as I mentioned in a previous post only gives when facing anhiliation…
This specifically means… Russia doesn’t stop at the border… doesn’t show restraint… instead she uses
proxies to go for the jugular…
Example Poland…. hates Russia… run by a guy who hates Russia… so… kill him… kill his party adherents..
Use the asylum seekers to destabilize…. delegitimate the current Polish leadership…
What goes around… comes around…
As for Lukashenko… encourage him… don’t restrain him….
Let NATO quake in their boots for a change…
And…
Why give energy to your avowed enemy… so they can build weapons to kill you???
Stalin did that…. where did that end??
INDY
Sorry to ps but to conclude: so any claim to a political victory might appear as though the US has gone from a Declaration of Independence to a Declaration of Impotence.
Throughout history elites of different countries often end up with more in common with each other than with their own people. I see a lot of opportunities for both sides (US, Russia) to benefit at the expense of Ukraine and perhaps the EU. There are indications that the US and China collaborated with covid. Perhaps most of what we call “international politics” is just the machinations of a few powerful people/ cabals cynically manipulating us peasants.
Several weeks ago President Putin made a remark that puzzled me, one which seemed to be “coming out of left field.” He said (I forget his exact words) that he absolutely didn’t support revolutions, that he believed in evolution and peaceful progress.
Now I don’t doubt this is what he believes, but why, I wondered, did he feel called on to say this now?
Then I recalled the days of 2014, when it briefly seemed possible that the Ukrainian troops who had been crushed and captured in the Donbas cauldrons might return to Kiev and overthrow the fascist usurpers. Is Putin, I wondered, trying to absolve himself of responsibility for what he foresees might be coming in Ukraine?
Are the Ukraine people really so beaten down and spineless that the Ukonazis are unbeatable? Or could the outcome of another great military defeat be a mass uprising?
For example, what do you think might happen if the Russian and Donbas armies were to corral and capture most of the Ukrainian army in giant cauldrons, keep the officers and known Nazis but give the rank-and-file their small arms back, donate some old school busses and turn them loose?
As I offered to you in 2014 when you were in your depth of your black despair, the people of Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk and Odessa can’t be so different from those who stopped the fascists in their tracks with little more than their bodies, their small arms and their raw courage. Are they not the same people?
I watch what is unfolding with fear and sorrow for those who are about to die, yet with some optimism and hope for a surprise outcome that will rock the European world. And I can’t help but wonder if that’s what Putin foresees too. Whatever his current philosophy, he is after all a student of history and heir to the Russian Revolution and the mighty Red Army.
“The Ukronazis in Kiev really have nothing at all to lose” What about their lives? Is the ruling power in Kiev staffed by walking death wishes? I can’t understand their motives.
At the end..either Russia Will capitulate or Will be engaged in more than one front.. Russia should take the inishitive..Sorry Puten is not the man for this period of time..He is not a warrior!!!?
The French Russophobe media does not represent the opinion of the French people and Macron has around 23-25% poll support only. Macron will not be re-elected.
I believe most French do not care if UKraine dissapears in their intend to start a new war.
Elections next year will probably reflect better what France thinks about the EU, NATO and the national interests of France.
Today’s media headlines and Macron’s silly statements are pure noise, nobody else listens to them here.
Russia knows that the European political class has no credibility and no support from their base.
Cheers from France.
same in germany. more and more plp waking up that russia is not an enemy. don’t take msm as representative. it just seems that the “west” is predominently russophobe. yes, it is still a thing, but far away from majority.
p. s.: massive election fraud here, as well. we will soon witness the collapse of the arrogant anglo-zionist empire and vassals, looking forward to it
You may scratch out the romanians and bulgarians from doing of anything of substance against Russia in Black Sea – despite being called “Navy”, the maritime components of both countries’ militaries are essentially glorified coast guards. And while the romanians may be willing to participate, we, the bulgarians, will drag our heels for sure for any serious actions against the russians.
Darn, get the petrol stamps ration book out honey. We saps will need to forego the family outing to the countryside on Sundays as the US/EU will be well short of Energy to keep this boondoggle afloat.
If Russia hits London with nukes then what’s my bunker allocation number? I hope that I have the same power showers underground as the Elite do to wash off the smell of the dead & dying bunker mates.
Luckily a Bulgarian friend of mine sold me some cheap crates of pilchards that I horded along with other essentials.
Will my Samsung galaxy still get Twatter & Faceshaft, as I don’t want to miss the latest stories on holocaust survivors.
“Will my Samsung galaxy still get Twatter & Faceshaft, as I don’t want to miss the latest stories on holocaust survivors.”
Proabably, if you live in SE Asia, but you’ll never get anything through the zuberburg (3LA) ‘fact checkers’ except happy faces and images of pre-atomic kittens.
Thank you for a wonderful article. I can sleep too night.
Only my old dad could do that.
Once worried that the sun sends lots of sunshine way when it spins.
“No so,” say dad..” the sun spins so fast all the sunshine comes to us. That’s why the kids can play out side when you are asleep at night.”
Reassured I never thought about it again.
I only know three grown ups……. you , Putin and a yank that lives on a goat farm somewhere.
Thank you. Agree that US military knows the consequences of war with Russia, but international bankers are looking for any distraction to deflect any blame coming on them for a collapsing credit bubble.
Russia and China have demonstrated amazing restraint through all the bullying and humiliation in the press.
3 cheers for Zakharova
Ms Truss(UK Foreign Minister) had said the migrant crisis was being ‘carefully crafted’ while urging Russia to ‘press the Belarusian authorities to end the crisis and enter into dialogue.’
Maria Zakharova, Russia’s foreign ministry spokesman, subsequently hit out – telling the Daily Telegraph: ‘The British invasion of Iraq was ‘carefully crafted’.
‘Britain bears a clear historical responsibility for everything that has happened in the region since – the deaths of Iraqis, the destruction of Iraqi statehood, the endless flows of refugees, the emergence of Isis, the humanitarian disasters in this part of the world.
‘Until London is held accountable for its crimes, its representatives have no right to point the finger at anyone.’
The EU is expected to announce later today what its new sanctions package will include, but it is expected to target airlines and others accused of transporting migrants to Belarus.
No caso dos eua conseguirem provocar um conflito na Ucrânia tenho para mim que os resultados não serão assim tão favoráveis aos ianques em termos de propaganda sobre russos maus que atacaram ucronazis indefesos.
Primeiro de tudo que para reforçar essa ideia de que os pobres ucronazis foram aniquilados pelos russos maus, os EUA terão que deixá-los atirados a própria sorte para que pareçam os coitadinhos da história.
Isso tem um preço porque por mais que o ziomedia tentar tirar dividendos disso, também ficará visível que os EUA atiraram os ucronazis na fogueira e depois não cumpriram suas promessas – como sempre – de apoio feitas a um “aliado”.
Talvez essa campanha de propaganda surta algum efeito na europa inicialmente. Mas só até hordas e mais hordas de refugiados gerados a parir do que foi a ucrânia começarem a pressionar as fronteiras da otan. É só ver o que um modesto contingente de refugiados já está provocando na polônia.
Quero crer que se a Rússia tiver que reagir a uma nova provocação da ucrânia ela o fará de forma a não deixar dúvidas de que entrou na briga para remover os nazistas ucranianos da equação política da Europa.
Feito isso, a Rússia terá que criar competências pra valer na área comunicacional e de propaganda para neutralizar a narrativa ocidental sobre russos maus, mostrando ao mundo quem realmente são os ianques, sua democracia de fancaria e sua cantilena cínica sobre direitos humanos.
Mas aí é que mora o perigo porque a Rússia já demonstrou de sobra o quanto a sua máquina de produzir contra narrativas é precária e inversamente proporcional ao seu poderio econômico e militar. A Rússia simplesmente não tem uma mídia que esteja a altura de suas necessidades como potência. Isso já foi tratado aqui pelo próprio Saker num texto que recomendo a leitura.
A bem da verdade os sionistas parece que são os únicos no mundo que realmente entendem o papel da comunicação. Não é a toa que controlam todos os meios.
Google Translation:
“In case the USA manages to provoke a conflict in Ukraine, I believe the results will not be so favorable to the Yankees in terms of propaganda about bad Russians who attacked defenseless Ucronazis.
First of all, to reinforce this idea that the poor Ucronazis have been annihilated by the bad Russians, the US will have to let them to their own devices to make them look like the poor things in history.
This comes at a price because as much as the ziomedia tries to take dividends out of it, it will also become apparent that the US threw the Ucronazis at the stake and then failed to deliver on its promises – as usual – of support made to an “ally”.
Perhaps this advertising campaign will have some effect in Europe initially. But only until hordes upon hordes of refugees spawned from what was Ukraine began to pressurize NATO’s borders. Just see what a modest contingent of refugees is already causing in Poland.
I want to believe that if Russia has to react to a new provocation by Ukraine, it will do so in a way that leaves no doubt that it has entered the fray to remove the Ukrainian Nazis from the political equation in Europe.
Once that’s done, Russia will have to create real communications and propaganda skills to neutralize the Western narrative about bad Russians, showing the world who the Yankees really are, their swashbuckling democracy and their cynical hum about human rights.
But this is where the danger lies, because Russia has already demonstrated in abundance how its machine to produce counter-narratives is precarious and inversely proportional to its economic and military power. Russia simply does not have a media that meets its needs as a power. This has already been dealt with here by Saker himself in a text that I recommend reading.
In fact the Zionists seem to be the only ones in the world who really understand the role of communication. No wonder they control all the media.”
“The US Americans are not stupid,…”. Well, I’m not so sure they are not.
I fully agree with this analysis except for the political victory in case of a russian military action in the eastern Ukraine.
OK, there is a systemic russophobia campaign in the EU countries but meanwhile in the real world V Poutine is asked to solve all the EU’s states problems: energy crisis, refugees at the Belarus/Poland border ..
Despite of all their attempts to get an effective support from Germany and France, Ukraine is facing their severe problems alone. And the russian governance is sufficiently aware of avoiding to go so far as Kiev in a lightning military action.
The US will do nothing. Any commitment of theirs to “lower races” such as Native Americans and “Ukrainians”, is null and void. Watch as Russia steamrolls the fake country Ukraine while West watches and cheers the neo-nazis to their total destruction.
Realize that West likes destruction.
As for American ships in the Black Sea, they have no combat intent, because they will be sunk in a few minutes, they are electronically interfering, and so they want to help Uki attacks on Dombas, war like never before with Uki attacks on Donbas, conflicts in Poland-Belarus borders and this presence of American ships in the Black Sea: everything is the same, if there is a war Russia is the winner, if there is no war Russia is the winner.
France military threat?
https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1460310320380092422?s=20
Russia has many options available without too many repercussions to consider.
First off, most people do not see that Russia is reinforcing Belarus during a difficult migrant crisis with Poland. The troop buildup might have to do with Ukraine, but it is mostly a security guarantee for Belarus, Lukashenko is an ally, the union state was signed , and cooperation deepens.
As a result Tu160 overflights of the border are a common occurrence , jointly flown with SU30 by belarusian pilots.
elements of 1st GTA, 41st CAA, and 90th GTA are there to reinforce Belarus from possible Polish and Ukrainian trespassers.
About Ukraine, there is no point of moving into Odessa or anywhere else. Any infrastructure on that coast is targeted by a multitude of Russian weapons, including Kalibr, Oniks, Kh32, Kinzhal, Iskander, aviation, the list is truly exhaustive.
Yes NATO is close, but it is close in other regions as well, the deployment of additional NATO forces only confirms the correct approach of VVP. Development of ABM S500 and S550 along with A235, and development of Sarmat and Burevestnik, along with introduction of zircon. To strike enemy command sites if they decide to commit suicide with theoretical first strike.
Even if NATO based itself in Odessa, buyan and karakurt with zircon will sink entire task forces in adjacent seas.
I would say the most the Kremlin would do, is reinforce Belarus to prevent NATO incursion, and to possibly send peacekeepers into the Donbass, with heavy armaments.
If 080808 is repeated, the response is clear. Russian mission would be clear off aggressor forces and return to LDNR and Crimean bases.
Other than that, not much to gain in Ukraine, they could just knockout the teeth of aggressors a la debaltseve and Ilovaisk and return to LDNR.
I appreciate your use of the term “tripwire units” applicable in this case to the malign manoeuvres of the US vassal state and attack dog the UK ruling elite. Led currently by a canine pack whose instinctive habit is to bite first and subdue in kind any opprobrium resulting from its rabid territorial nature and illusions of dominance. These dogs of war have already despatched tripwire units to the border of Belarus and Poland and are currently salivating on their threat and promise to send elite units in their hundreds to Ukraine. What more could the US eagle wish for than to observe the manic depredations of a its most subservient ally as it ‘charges into the breach against the enemy cannon’ unheeding of reason and consequence!
Who knows what will happen but I think the “Ukronazis” must have a lot to lose and have reasons to fear the details of that. The local reaction to the defeat could or would make them disappear as a political party. Going to war (and being responsible for going) against a military like Russia’s must be scary to a lesser power, and more if Russia sees them as the “aggressor.” Then, Ukraine could not defeat Donbass, so everybody knows a war between Ukraine’s military and Russia’s military would end quickly, perhaps with similarities to how things unfolded in Crimea, because the Ukranian military forces must know how such a war ends all too well. No expert on Ukraine but, logically at least, one of the things the “Ukronazis” could fear about a war is a military coup against them.
If Kiev actually attacks the separatist areas ( again ) they can find comfort in the political compensation of defeat – ridding themselves of areas that will never support far right politics in Ukraine, plus a big propoganda victory ( those ‘beastly’Russians attacking poor Ukraine.)
However, little attention is paid to the potential fall out in Western Ukraine. After a decisive defeat in the East, Ukraine may well become entirely destabilised. In the likely chaos & desperation, the Western Ukrainian population may not be averse to those parts of Western Ukraine formerly under Polish rule being reunited with Poland. It might be a matter of survival – hunger & lack of employment are powerful persuaders. It might come down to the question of Poland’s appetite & readiness to repatriate their former territories.
The Russian ASAT test is a shot across the bows. ie “We don’t care if space becomes unusable because our people can use sextants and don’t need GPS”
Looks like to me – USA will push Poland Ukraine and company to start war .
Usa will assure them to fully support them.
Than war start USA make some excuse and withdraw from war . Finaly most of Europe will be destroyded .Good for USA . No war in USA good money ahead for USA company to restore Europe.
Other possibility- all the super rich are bored to death they are bored to all toys they abused. They will save themselfs in the undergroud bunkers but just temporarly . They will be the people – living will envy the death .
Tragedy of man is- desire for property-desire for power. There is no solutions- Most powerful makes the laws and rule.